Three Cups Deep: The Pack Continues to Go; Go

Two weeks ago, I wrote that I’d decided to root for the Packers during these playoffs. That got an interesting mix of comments, with several proclaiming they’d never root for the Packers, or any division rival. This morning, the talk radio airwaves were burning up with people saying they’d never root for the Packers (and/or totally would have gutted out Jay Cutler’s MCL sprain, because they’d have won States if Coach had put them in in the fourth).

I’ve often ranted in this space about how I prefer pro football to college.  Here, though, is where college football wins out. First, rivals are rivals, regardless of record. I detest the Vikings  for a variety of reasons, but I’ve always had a begrudging respect for the Packers—fan owned, outdoor stadium, Titletown, Lombardi, Starr, Favre, etc. I love that in a league of teams in big cities, a tiny Wisconsin town can still build a perennial winner out of pure will. The Bears were flatly the coolest team in the world when I was a little kid, and just as steeped in history as Green Bay. I don’t particularly like the Bears now, especially with Martz and Marinelli calling the plays--but I have a hard time mustering real venom.

Rivalries, in professional sports, are either handed down through the generations (like Cubs/Cardinals), spring up when multiple coaches and players leave from one team to the other (Patriots/Jets), or blossom out of repeated contests with something big on the line (Red Wings/Avalanche).  Unfortunately, unless it’s the first type, the rivalry fades away.  Players move on, teams’ fortunes wax and wane, and meaningless games become hard for even the fans to get up for.  The Lions haven’t played the Packers with anything on the line since the early Nineties, and the games have been mostly uncontested since then . . . until this year.

One of the reasons I'm rooting Pack this season, is that the rivalry is about to rekindle.  The Lions took them to the final minutes in Lambeau this year, and beat them at home this year.  The Lions’ time is beginning, and this rivalry is going to mean something again, soon. As I’ve said, I want the cool players (like Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings and Donald Driver and Charles Woodson and . . .) and cool fans to get to the mountaintop before the Lions knock them down.  Think of it this way: if the Packers are the reigning Super Bowl champions next season, taking the division crown from them will mean that much more.

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Three Cups Deep: Go Pack Go

he put da team on his back

The Lions aren’t in the playoffs.  This is hardly a surprise; usually the start of the playoffs means the end of me being emotionally invested in NFL football.  Oh, sure, I watch the playoffs, like the playoffs, love them even—but I rarely have a rooting interest.  The playoffs have become like this whole other thing, this separate world the Lions don’t belong in . . . it’s almost like a different league.  The standings, division races, wild card races?  The Lions just aren’t ever a part of them.  The Lions logo never appears on my TV under the heading “Playoff Picture,” not even in the crappy column on the right.

But now, the Lions—on the heels of a four-game winning streak—have rejoined the league as a whole.  They will enter next season as legitimate playoff contenders—admittedly, a low bar to jump over in today’s NFL.  But no matter: for the first time since 2007, and the first time besides that in a decade, the playoffs are relevant to the Lions, and the Lions are relevant to the playoffs.

Between the Bears, Eagles, Packers, Jets, and Patriots, the Lions played five of the eight playoff teams.  Against all of them, the Lions were within a score in the fourth quarter.  Against some of them, they had a lead.  Against the Bears, they won but had the W taken away from them.  Against the Packers, they actually really officially won.

Yes, the Lions beat the Packers, a team which is moving on to the second round of the playoffs—and who I, along with many others, thought had the inside track on the NFC Super Bowl berth coming into the season.  The last time the Lions beat the eventual Super Bowl winner?  1999, when the Lions beat the Rams, 31-27.  In collapsing the big top for the Greatest Show on Turf, the 6-2 Lions beat the 6-2 Rams.  Starting QB Charlie Batch got hurt, but Gus Frerotte picked up the slack.  The Lions couldn’t run for beans—leading rusher Sedrick Irvin had 4 carries for 10 yards—but sacked Kurt Warner four times, and intercepted him twice.  Doesn’t it seem like a century, not a decade, has passed since then?

As cool as it would be for the Lions to break yet another not-since-Millen streak this year, I have to admit I have other reasons for rooting for the Packers.  For starters, the Packer blogosphere is one of the best around, both in terms of content and friendliness.  Holly over at Cheesehead TV has long been one of this blog’s kindest supporters—and considering the work she does scouring Packer opponents’ sites and blogs, that’s high praise indeed.  Larry from Packer Chatters once let me post a Watchtower as an article on their site, which I appreciated greatly (but their commenters didn’t, so much).  Aaron Nagler’s Aforementioned Cheesehead TV also gives away the “Titletown Awards” to other Packers blogs and websites, which is a wonderful idea.  There’s also C.D. Angeli's Tundra Vision, whose “Am I Still a Fan?” post put on the table some feelings that had been stewing in me for quite some time.  The crazy thing is, this doesn’t even scratch the surface of the awesomeness of the Packer Blogosphere.

For these fine folks, for some friends and family who count themselves part of the Cheesehead Nation, and for the reflected glory in which the Lions would then bathe, I’m rooting for Lombardi’s team to add another Lombardi trophy to the case.  Further, I’m calling for Lions fans who don’t already have an affiliation with a playoff team to join me.  Please, let’s let Packers like Aaron Rodgers and Greg Jennings feel the glory of the mountaintop once—because Ndamukong Suh and the Lions will be king of that mountain for years to come.

Forgive me, I’m terrible at this, what is it the kids say these days, “running smack?”  As a Lions fan my default mode is demure submission.  Anyway, Go Pack, Go.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,green bay packers,nfl playoffs

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Packers

The Packers are sitting at 8-4, one game behind the Bears in the race to the top of the NFC North.  The Lions are sitting at 2-10, three games ahead of the Vikings in the race to the bottom of the NFC North.  By the Simple Ranking System, both teams are much, much better than their record implies: the Packers’s value is 10.0; #2 in the NFL.  Meanwhile, the Lions are valued at 0.0, and ranked 16th.  Statistically speaking, the Lions are the median team: right smack dab in the middle of the NFL, in terms of relative strength.  But is that enough to compete with the mighty Pack, even before a sold-out Ford Field?

Mike McCarthy vs. Gunther Cunningham

McC	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NOS	14	21.2	6.43	4.46	TEN	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	12	-43%	8.04	25%	1.53	-66%
NOS	14	21.8	6.62	3.96	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	24%	9.59	45%	5.83	47%
GBP	3rd	28.8	7.56	4.30	DET	32nd	30.9	5.42	4.42	26	-10%	9.68	28%	3.57	-17%
GBP	3rd	28.8	7.56	4.30	DET	32nd	30.9	5.42	4.42	34	18%	8.92	18%	2.96	-31%
GBP	7th	25.2	7.68	3.99	DET	25th	25.5	7.18	4.58	21	-17%	10.65	39%	4.28	7%
GBP	7th	25.2	7.68	3.99	DET	25th	25.5	7.18	4.58

In the last Watchtowering of the Packers, I discussed the very strong statistical trend we’ve seen when Mike McCarthy faces Gunther Cunningham:

Given equal or greater talent, Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Mike McCarthy’s downfield flavor of the Bill Walsh offense. Given lesser talent, Gunther’s 4-3 will cap offensive production with sacks and turnovers, even while allowing better-than-average offensive effectiveness between the 20s.

In the last two meetings, however, the Packers’ offense has underperformed even this.  In both cases, the Packers scored the amount of points I projected—but with the help of a defensive touchdown, meaning the offense was a full TD below what expectations project.  Last time, I projected the Packers to do the following:

With the Lions possessing a systemic advantage against the Packers’ already injury-weakened running game, and in depressing the Packers’ scoring, I project the Pack will fall just short of their season average, scoring 24-27 points. I have very high confidence in this projection.

Given the depth and specificity of the data we’ve got, and the special circumstances surrounding the matchup, I’ll take the opportunity to get a little more specific: I cite my Whack-A-Mole principle, and project that the Lions will concede the run to the Packers, allowing 3.75-4.0 YpC, in order to focus primarily on the pass, which should yield 7.5-8.25 YpA. Further, I predict the Lions will sack the Packers four to six times.

The Pack did bomb it down the field, picking up 10.65 YpA—but with only 17 attempts, and two of those picked off, that only amounted to 181 yards.  The Lions did cede the run to the Pack in the process: 4.28 YpC.  The Lions sacked the Packers twice (on only 19 dropbacks), though, and recovered two fumbles in addition to those two INTs.  The disruption in scoring is obvious: the Packers are the 7th-best scoring offense in football this year, averaging 25.2 PpG, and the Lions—the 25th-ranked defense—held them to just 21 offensive points.  Keep in mind, the Lions have been allowing 25.5 points per game on the average; to hold the 7th-best offense to less than what you’ve been allowing on average all year is an impressive feat.

So.  The Lions are allowing 25.5 points per game, the Packers are scoring 25.2 points per game.  The Lions have since put their #1 DE, Kyle Vanden Bosch, and #2 corner, Alphonso Smith, on Injured Reserve.  However, the Packers have since lost #1 RB Ryan Grant, and #1 TE Jermichael Finley to injuries, as well.  The last game was at Lambeau, but this game will be a a Packer-fan-filled Ford Field.  As I said last week, rarely do two meetings between two teams in the same season end up with the same result, but all the factors seem to cancel each other out.

It seems unlikely that the Lions’ defense does that well against an offense that good twice in a row, though, so I’m going to project the Packers to slightly underperform scoring expectations: gaining 23-26 points.  I expect the Lions to be more successful defending the pass with zone coverage, allowing 8.0-8.5 YpA, at the expense of fewer interceptions.  The Lions will likely cede the run to the Packers again, allowing 4.25-4.5 YpC.  I have high confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Again, with such a consistent trend, and a prior game this season, everything above is a mitigating or aggravating factor—we’re just looking to see what will modify what happened before.  As I said, in Week 4, the Lions managed to hold the Packers’ offense to as few points as can be expected, given how effective they were on a per-play basis.  If the same offense shows up this week, I don’t see the Lions being so fortunate.  On the other hand . . .

This week, ESPN NFC North blogger Kevin Seifert pointed out that Greg Jennings has put the team on his back, much like the (uproariously NSFW-audio-laden) Madden clip we all know and love:

Ahem.

Look for the Lions to drop eight men into coverage on a regular basis, essentially the same game plan we saw against the Patriots on Thanksgiving.  The idea is to get enough rush from the front four to slow down the Pack’s offense just long enough for the Lions’ offense to outscore them.  Greg Jennings will be the key to this game for the Packers’ offense.  If the Lions can stop him with double- and triple-teams, I don’t think Donald Driver and Donald Lee will be enough to score more than the 23-26 I project, if enough to score that much at all.

Scott Linehan vs. Dom Capers

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Dom	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	HOU	21st	19.3	6.89	3.92	34	34%	7.92	11%	4.69	0%
STL	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	MIA	21st	21.6	6.61	2.35	12	-17%	4.26	-25%	4.30	9%
DET	24th	18.1	5.60	3.91	GBP	12th	20.3	6.17	4.46	0	-100%	4.20	-25%	4.33	11%
DET	27th	16.4	7.80	4.42	GBP	7th	18.6	5.96	3.59	12	-27%	4.95	-37%	3.17	-28%
DET	13th	23.2	5.92	3.72	GBP	1st	15.7	6.02	4.49	26	12%	6.13	4%	5.86	58%
DET	13th	23.2	5.92	3.72	GBP	1st	15.7	6.02	4.49

Last year, I thought I’d identified a systemic advantage for Scott Linehan against Dom Capers (and most 3-4 defenses), where the running game was disproportionately effective, and scoring was therefore disproportionately higher.  Then, Daunte Culpepper went out and Daunte Culpeppered the Lions to a big stinky shutout in their first matchup against the Pack, seemingly blowing my theory out of the water.   However, this season has shown that my initial conclusion has legs.

This year, the Packers have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.  Yes, that’s right, let me say that again: this year, the Packers have the #1 scoring defense in the NFL.  You wouldn’t know it from how little attention this fact has received, but it’s true.  Nevertheless, Shaun Hill led the Lions to a 26-point day against these Packers on the road, and his 40-yard scramble led the Lions’ rushing attack to an impressive 5.86 YpC.

In the comments on the last Watchtower, commenter Matt pointed out that a lot of the Packers’ rushing yards allowed to that point were gained by Michael Vick—and sure enough, the Packers allowed the Lions some significant scramble yardage, as well.  I replied in the Watchtower Review:

My notion that Green Bay is generally struggling against the run this year was false. However, we may have stumbled upon something interesting: are Green Bay’s nickel packages especially susceptible to quarterback runs? With a three-man front attempting to rush the passer, and one or more linebackers blitzing, it would make sense that there’s a giant gaping hole in the middle of the field. I’ll be keeping an eye on this throughout the season . . . and for the next Watchtower.

Well, I can’t find an quick answer for how many yards the Packers have been surrendering to rushing quarterbacks, or if that total’s unusually high.  However, the Packers are allowing 4.49 YpC on the ground, 7th-worst in the NFL—so clearly, my notion that the Packers are generally struggling against the run was true.  Further, the Lions will be starting Drew Stanton, whose running ability is well-known, and whom the Lions have never hesitated to call designed running plays for.  I expect to see at least one rushing touchdown, or 20-plus-yard scramble, from Drew Stanton on Sunday.

Typically, the Lions are outgained by their opponents, but keep games close with red-zone defense, sacks, and turnovers.  However,  against the Packers, the Lions actually far outgained the Pack, outrushing them 123 to 91, and outpassing them 331 to 181.  It was only a slew of costly penalties that kept the Lions from scoring thirty or more the last time around.  I don’t expect the Lions to put up 454 yards against the Packers this time around, but I do project them to be more productive with their yards: scoring 17-23 points, gaining 4.50-5.00 YpC, and throwing for 5.75-6.00 YpA.

Mitigating/Augmenting Factors:

First, this presumes that Drew Stanton plays like he did last week: an efficient, effective, conservative backup quarterback.  If Stanton has a regression to his “2009 49ers game” form, this will be an ugly blowout.  However, there’s an X factor here named Jahvid Best. We saw a return to form last week, and if he still has that burst, that bounce, he could do an awful lot of damage against a Green Bay defense that’s lost three of its top five linebackers for the year.  Finally, in the first matchup, Brandon Pettigrew made a lot more headlines for the two or three crucial passes he dropped, than the eight he caught for 91 yards.  Likely being matched up against A.J. Hawk, as 49ers TE Vernon Davis was last week (4 catches, 126 yards, 1 TD) could result in a field day for Jumbotron.

Conclusion

The Lions gave the Packers their best shot in Week 4, and lost the game mostly by shooting themselves in the foot.  Between a truly massive amount of penalties (13 for 102 yards), and the now-obligatory Charles Woodson pick-six, the Lions let the Packers off the hook.  As I said above, it’s hard to believe that the Lions could play that well against a team as talented as Green Bay twice in once season—and yet, it’s there.  It’s there for them, again.  They lost by two on the road before, they can win this one at home.  They can . . . but they won’t.  Here’s what I said at the end of the last Watchtower:

I'd love to say that this Packer team, struggling so mightily to run and stop the run, is primed for an upset. But the talent gap between these teams is still too large, especially when considering the almost-two-decade-long streak of Lambeau futility the Lions are riding. I project another tantalizingly close game, with an outstanding day by the defensive line—marred by the back seven yielding to one of the best passing attacks in the game. This will be an extremely painful 17-24 defeat.

CTRL-C, CTRL-V, folks.  This will be an extremely painful 17-24 defeat.

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