Gameday Post: Lions vs. Packers

This is what I want: revenge.  I want to see the Lions, bruised and battered though they may be, take control of their fate.  Screw the records, screw the refs, just go out and beat a division rival at home.  I want to see the Lions take out their frustrations.  I want to see Calvin stiff-arming people, Javhid breaking long ones, Maurice Morris pounding people, and Drew play a clean game while making plays.  I want to see the defense force Aaron Rodgers to run for his life, sacking him early and often.  I want to see the Lions get a big turnover early, and capitalize on it.  I want to see the Lions wrest control of this game from the Packers at the opening gun, and never relinquish it.

I want to see the Lions take back what’s been taken from them.  Show a near-national audience what they’re made of.  Prove to the world that they’re more than what they were.  Leave no room for doubt, for error, for injustice, or for theft.  I want to see the Lions get payback for everything that’s been done to them.  Revenge! I want to see it.  I want to taste it.

I bet it tastes sweet.

2nd-half update: Well, half the Lions are out for revenge.  This is the best half of defensive football I’ve seen the Lions play in years.  Now, if only the offense could hold up even part of their end of the deal.

VICTORY UPDATE: WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!  Don't forget to pop in for the Fireside Chat podcast, streaming LIVE tonight at 11 EST! Bring your comments and questions! And your WOOOO!

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,green bay packers,gameday post

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Turkey coma

After the ultimately-in-vain effort we all could have predicted—and, in fact, I did predict—I spent all of Thanksgiving evening burying my sorrows in a landslide of family, food, and fun.  We spent “black Friday” mostly doing nothing in particular at home.  Yesterday, had “second Thanksgiving” with the other side of the family, and then Mrs. Inwinter’s class reunion.  Throughout, I’ve been away from the computer—and, having temporarily lost my BlackBerry, mostly invisible on Twitter.  For the radio silence, I apologize.

Today is the Lions fan’s annual day of weirdness, a Football Day where there isn’t any football.  We’ve finished grieving for the Lions’ loss—or in those splendid years where the Lions win, we’ve come off our winning high—and are ready for more, but there is no more, and won’t be for a week.  Everyone handles this differently: some rake the leaves or shovel the walk, some catch up on in-home projects, some spend quality time with the family, some go out and Christmas shop . . . and some just watch the other games, indifferently.  I, being who I am, will attempt to do all of the above simultaneously and do a not-quite-good job of each.

So.  However you choose to spend today, whatever pursuits you distract yourself with, enjoy.  Whatever you do in the absence of Lions football, do it well.  I hope you and yours had a wonderful Thanksgiving . . . and I hope I’ll see you tonight at 11 pm EST for the Fireside Chat.

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Gameday Post: Lions at Cowboys

Those of you who follow me on Twitter know my home Internet service is currently out; this whole blogging thing gets much harder when all you have is a non-tether-able smartphone. So, my comment replies are going to be a little tardy; I appreciate your patience (KFFE and Matt, I especially owe you two some replies! Fanastic stuff). Also, the outage will threaten tonight's Fireside Chat . . . I'll keep you posted.

Anyway, the Lions are playing a game today--and as Matt noted in the Watchtower comments, it's a study in "which team will show up?". The Cowboys could be the aggressive, dynamic team we saw handle the Giants in New Jersey last week--or the moribund 1-7 team we saw the weeks before. Similarly, the Lions could be the scrappy, physical, pass-and-rush-the-passer, make-mistakes-and-overcome-them team that nearly beat the Jets--or the wholly lifeless side that sleepwalked through Buffalo, making the Bills look like the Jets.

If it's last week's Cowboys against last week's Lions, this is going to be nasty, brutish, and short. Any other combination, though, and it will be interesting. Here're my Tortured Sponsor-Name Metaphor Keys To The Game:

* Shaun Hill Having Two Arms
* Attacking the "D"
* One For The Road?!

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Gameday Post: Lions at Bills

I’m going to give this paragraph over to my man Neil at Armchair Linebacker, because he’s already said what I meant to say, only better, so I won’t bother repeating him:

On Sunday, the Detroit Lions, my favorite professional football team, will descend upon Buffalo will furious vengeance in their hearts. They will devour the souls of the living and gnaw upon the bones of the wicked dead. There is no joy in any of this, no beautiful glimpse of the future. The future is irrelevant. So is the past. There is only now, there is only today, and today there is no choice but to win, to crush, kill, destroy.

Well said.

Saturday morning, I was stopping in to a convenience store on my way to get McDonald’s breakfast.  Near the door, I met eyes with a man in his, say, late 50s/early 60s.  He saw my Lions hat, and a serious look crossed his face.  He nodded with great import, and slowly said “ . . . that’s a good-lookin’ hat.”

I’m not sure I can accurately convey just how important this seemed to both of us at the time—it was a very real, very palpable bond we shared just then, if only for a second.  Being a Lions fan is still, at this instant, an underground thing.  It’s still, for right now, something you do in private, or risk being ostracized.  On the rare occasion you see someone else bold enough to brand themselves with the Honolulu Blue . . . you recognize it.

Today, though, the Lions have a chance to take a big step towards Lions fandom being part of a normal Michigander’s daily routine—and the chance is a great one, indeed.  The Lions can win on the road, for the first time in forever.  They can beat last season’s win total.  They can properly round the corner from one of the toughest first-half schedules in the NFL, to one of the easiest second-half schedules in the NFL.

They can do what decent teams do, which is beat terrible teams on the road.  If they do it emphatically enough, they can even, finally, separate themselves from the dregs of the NFL—both in the national NFL hivemind, as well as in the standings.  I think they can do it, and I think they will do it.

. . . frankly, they’d better do it.  Don’t forget to join me live, via Ustream, at 11:00 pm EST for the Fireside Chat podcast, so we can discuss it either way.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,buffalo bills

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Lions vs. Jets Gameday Post: A New Beginning

Today, I take my four-year-old son to his first Lions game.  He’s been talking about it for weeks, and he’s been talking about it nonstop for days.  He’s been waking up every morning hoping it’s Sunday, and bitterly disappointed every morning except this one.  He’s all decked out in gear, as we all are, and he’s bouncing off the walls with excitement.  I even had to talk him out of wearing his cleats!

He’s nowhere near as excited as I am.

This is an enormous game for us as fans, but it’s also a game of incredible import to the franchise.  For the first time in years, the Lions are going to have a crack at a legitimate Super Bowl contender—and a legitimate chance to win.  Depending on who you ask, the Jets are favored by something more than a field goal but less than a touchdown.  I’m not the only person to pick the Lions to win, either—Sterling Sharpe on NFL Network’s NFL Playbook did the same.

If the Lions win, it'll be their biggest in years . . . maybe since before Millen.  If they lose, it’ll break my little boy’s heart, no matter how hard I prepare him for it.  Either way, today will be a landmark in franchise history, a day when we find out exactly how far the Lions have come.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york jets

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The Watchtower: Lions Vs. Redskins

Last night, I threw a question out to the Twitter followers: “Should I work on an excellent gameday post, or a Watchtower I likely won’t finish?”  The only answer I got back was from @derylgarland, who said “Will one choice make Michigan’s defense less sucky?”  The answer, of course, was no—so, tilting at a windmill, I started a Watchtower I knew I couldn’t finish. 

Mike Shanahan vs. Gunther Cunningham

Shan	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
DEN	KCC	9th	24.3	6.81	4.53	1st	15.1	5.41	4.38	7	5.35	2	3.27	3-1	3-14
DEN	KCC	9th	24.3	6.81	4.53	1st	15.1	5.41	4.38	10	6.72	0	4.00	2-2	3-38
DEN	KCC	4th	24.4	6.40	4.50	11th	18.8	6.60	3.78	14	5.20	2	5.96	0-0	2-18
DEN	KCC	4th	24.4	6.40	4.50	11th	18.8	6.60	3.78	34	8.94	2	4.95	2-1	0-0
DEN	KCC	1st	29.5	6.81	4.57	1st	14.5	6.43	3.92	22	7.48	0	3.38	2-1	6-38
DEN	KCC	1st	29.5	6.81	4.57	1st	14.5	6.43	3.92	14	8.95	0	3.40	4-2	1-7
DEN	KCC	2nd	31.3	7.38	4.70	22nd	22.7	6.23	3.81	30	7.83	0	5.86	0-0	1-6
DEN	KCC	2nd	31.3	7.38	4.70	22nd	22.7	6.23	3.81	35	12.50	1	3.21	2-2	2-17
DEN	KCC	18th	19.6	6.17	4.01	13th	20.1	6.02	3.75	10	5.55	2	3.38	4-2	2-16
DEN	KCC	18th	19.6	6.17	4.01	13th	20.1	6.02	3.75	10	6.31	1	4.61	0-0	2-19
DEN	KCC	2nd	30.3	7.46	4.48	19th	22.1	6.32	3.83	15	6.71	1	4.83	2-2	1-11
DEN	KCC	2nd	30.3	7.46	4.48	19th	22.1	6.32	3.83	0	6.69	0	3.79	1-1	2-9
DEN	KCC	9th	23.8	7.68	4.37	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	34	7.93	2	5.33	3-1	1-9
DEN	KCC	9th	23.8	7.68	4.37	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	17	7.12	2	6.14	2-1	5-19
DEN	KCC	7th	24.7	6.94	4.68	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	30	5.97	0	5.97	2-0	2-0
DEN	KCC	7th	24.7	6.94	4.68	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	9.52	2	4.52	0-0	2-19
WAS	DET	22nd	18.6	6.89	4.10	23rd	22.4	7.13	4.79

Here’s why I couldn’t do it: Shanahan and Cunningham have a long, long history of facing each other as coordinators, longer than any I’ve ever written up before.  Dave Birkett of the Free Press wrote an excellent article that explores their rivalry and relationship:

"Like I said, that system is a special system," Cunningham said. "I know a lot about it, obviously. I can run the plays myself."

Over the years, there’s been a tug-of war between the two—but Cunningham has had the upper hand, by Watchtower reckoning.  Looking at their respective units, both men have had some incredible successes; in 1997 Shanahan led the best offense in the NFL against Cunningham’s best defense in the NFL—and in both games, Cunningham’s defense held Shanahan’s offense well below their average on the season.  In the second game, they even held them a half-point below their average allowed!  There are several other examples in the table above where Shanahan’s offense dramatically underperformed expectations.

In 1999, the only season where Cunningham's defense was clearly better than Shanahan's offense, the Broncos were held to ten offensive points in both games—when the Broncos were averaging almost 20 on the year.

The handful of examples where the Broncos met or exceeded their season averages, there’s a common thread: exceptional yards-per-attempt averages.  You see, Shanahan deploys the most run-heavy variant of the Bill Walsh “West Coast” offense: even when his passing game is devastatingly efficient, it’s not for very high yards-per-attempt.  Look at 1997 (highlighted with double-white): the Broncos were the #1 scoring offense in the NFL, yet averaging only 6.81 YpA.  That’s healthy, to be sure, but typically elite offenses average between 7 and 8 YpA.  Now look at the YpC: 4.57.  Shanahan’s offenses are most fearsome when the running game is rolling, not when the passing game is exploding.

Cunningham has thus focused on depressing the rushing yardage—and has been largely successful.  When he’s failed to stop Shanahan is when the passing defense completely fails, and Shanahan’s offense starts racking up atypically huge YpA.  Therefore, I’m comfortable concluding: given greater, equal, or lesser talent, Gunther Cunningham’s defenses have a systemic advantage in depressing scoring, by aggressively attacking the run—but if Shanahan’s offense can counter with the deep pass, this effect is negated.

This season, the Redskins’ offense is ranked 22nd, averaging 18.6 points per game.  The running game is uncharacteristically mediocre (4.10 YpC), due at least in part to Clinton Portis’s groin injury—but Ryan Torain has been an admirable fill-in.  The Skins’ offensive line is aging, though, so if Gunther can do what he normally does against Shanahan, the Lions could depress scoring indeed.  The only question will be, can Donovan McNabb exploit the Lions secondary?  I project the Redskins will score 13-17 points, average 7.00-7.50 YpA, and muster 3.25-3.50 YpC.  I have high confidence in this prediction.

Scott Linehan vs. Jim Haslett

Lin	Has	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
MIN	NOS	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	26th	24.2	6.42	4.14	32	8.67	0	5.84	1-0	3-19
MIN	NOS	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	26th	24.2	6.42	4.14	38	6.17	2	6.71	4-1	2-8
MIA	NOS	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	26th	24.2	6.42	4.14	33	10.34	0	3.73	0-0	6-26
DET	WAS	6th	25.2	5.95	3.63	9th	19.0	6.75	4.69

I’m flat-out running out of time for this part, and I’m deeply sorry.  But we don’t have very good data anyway—Linehan’s offense has had a massive talent advantage every time they’ve met—and have met the expectations that that would engender, doing very very well each time.  The only conclusion I can draw from this is that the Lions will meet expectations—and the Lions, ranked sixth in the NFL with 25.2 points per game, should score 20-23 points against the 9th-ranked Redskins defense.  I have very low confidence in this prediction.

Conclusion

Okay folks, I'm calling it: with Stafford back, a mostly-full home crowd, DeAndre Levy, and a winning streak (!) going against the Redskins, the most likely outcome of the game is a 20-14 Lions victory.

.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,washington redskins,jim schwartz,mike shanahan,gunther cunningham,scott linehan,jim haslett

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Gameday Post: Lions at Giants

I really don't know what to think about today. The Lions are going to be riding a wave of tremendous momentum--but then, so will the Giants. The Lions haven't lost to the Giants in New York since 1990, but the Lions haven't won on the road in 23 games. The Lions have a great pass rush, but the Giants have a better one. Every reason I can think of for the Lions to have a chance today, the Giants can match--or better.

. . . except one thing: hunger. Drive, passion, the desperate need to win. The Lions' entire season rides on today: a win keeps 2010 on life support; contention is still mathematically possible. With a win, the losing streak snapped, a bye to build off of it, and the return of their quarterback, the Lions--if not realistically playoff-bound--at least have a pulse. Lose today, and the Lions' plug will be pulled.

I can't say I have the unshakable faith in victory that I had last week--but I believe the Lions want it more, need it more--and that gives them a chance.

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Gameday Post: Smells Like Victory

On Friday, I felt an irrational sense of impending doom; a baseless, primal fear. My friend Neil at Armchair Linebacker writes often of this clawing dread. The Fear sits in the pit of every Lions fan's stomach on gamedays--maybe never more than on days when the Lions are favored to win. Today's mix of desperately needing this victory in every way, and the theoretical attainabiility of said win, is a deadly cocktail, indeed.

But today, I am peaceful. Today, I am blissful. I have a quiet, unshakable confidence that's likely just as irrational as The Fear. Perhaps it's temporary insanity, perhaps it's the afterglow from yesterday, but whatever it is I feel as though nothing can touch me--and no one can beat the Lions.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,st. louis rams

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Gameday Post: Lions at Packers

Yesterday, I was asked an unanswerable question by Pride of Detroit contributor “simscity”, who does a great "On Paper" analysis feature there ( he Tweets as @lionssuhperfan). "if you had to choose one team to get the W this weekend," he asked me, "Lions or Spartans?"

Oh dear.

There's so much riding on today's game for the Lions: getting off this season's schneid, breaking yet another interminable road losing streak, making sure Jim Schwartz doesn't have the worst first two seasons of any coach in Lions history, and--of course--leaving Lambeau victorious for the first time since my eleventh birthday.

Then again, the Spartans might be on the verge of a truly special season. A victory over Wisconsin would mean that only Michigan stood between the Spartans and a chance for rose-trimmed glory--for the first time since my ninth birthday. A win over Wisconsin, with Coach Dantonio looking on from a hospital bed, would be huge step forward for the program--and another chapter in what's shaping up to be a truly epic season for Michigan State.

Now that it's happened . . . can I eat my cheese, and have it, too?

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Gameday Post, 2010 Preseason: Bills vs. Lions

One last time, one last tune-up, one last chance for those on the bubble.  One last game-that’s-not-a-game, one last test-that’s-not-a-test, one last dress rehearsal before the curtain goes up on 2010.  I posted the picture above from last season’s tilt with the Bills as a a warning, a preventative talisman—in case Matthew Stafford does get on the field, that picture above is exactly what must never happen.

Everything else is a bonus.  Please, gather and discuss in the comments below.

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Gameday Post, 2010 Preseason: Lions at Broncos

With the return of real, live, honest-to-God, sort-of Lions football, we all happily delved into the old familiar cycle of preview, review, and analysis.  We hashed, re-hashed, debated, and rebated all of last Saturday’s happenings.  We sat down at the pigskin feast, and we gorged ourselves like gluttons until we couldn’t have another bite.  We were presented with heaping helping of not-quite Lions football, so we loosened our belts, rolled up our sleeves, and tucked in.  Hours later, we collapsed back onto the couch, fat and sated, and happily drifted off to sleep.  There’s only one problem:  there’s more football.

As the Lions take on the Broncos, they’ll be taking on their second straight 3-4 defense—great, because they’ll play quite a few during the regular season.  Basically, all we want to see is more of the same: Matthew Stafford completing lots of passes, Jahvid Best running like an NFL starter, the defensive line getting lots of push, the secondary not totally horrible, and—most of all—our ones outplaying their ones.  If we get that, again?  Everything else is gravy.

One of the great things about the NFL is that the games take place on Sunday, the day of rest, the day when most people either have nothing going on, or can easily carve out time.  I will be at the wedding of a close friend on Saturday night, so I’ll be watching a replay between then and 11:00 pm Sunday night—the new time of the Fireside Chat podcast!

That's right, I’ve slid back the broadcast time by an hour.  Why?  I realized that everybody’s watching Mad Men then—and when the season starts, that’ll be right in the middle of Sunday Night Football.  11:00, though, should be right when the game stops being interesting.  So, stop by at 11:00 pm EST, and be ready for some almost-really real Lions football analysis!  In the meantime, hit up the comments.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,denver broncos,preseason,mad men

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Lions at 49ers: Gameday Post

 

First: I hope your Christmas was as merry as mine!  I’ve had a wonderful time with my friends and family over the holiday break.  Good times, good food, and good drink were had.  Far-flung siblings and siblings-in-law were reconnected with.  Of course, wonderful new toys were acquired, and much reorganizing is currently underway . . .

Today feels kind of like a freebie.  Drew Stanton is in, and as long as he’s not completely, irredeemably horrible, it’ll be nice to see him out there.  The Niners are exactly the kind of hot/cold opponent the Lions could either beat, or be decimated by.  If the Lions are competitive for most of the game, I’ll be satisfied.

My apologies for the lack of a Watchtower this week; with the preparations and celebrations, there simply wasn’t time.  I’m also working on some very special Christmas-related content, so keep your eyes peeled for that.  In any event, feel free to share a mug of something with your Lions fan family in the comments below!

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Gameday Discussion: Lions at Ravens

It’s fitting that the Lions play the Ravens today.  In various cultures, ravens have been feared as omens of doom, or the manifestation of damned souls.  With their jet-black plumage and beak, and their taste for the flesh of dead animals, it’s easy to see how the legends began.

At 2-10, the Lions certainly look more like carrion than kings of the jungle. However, if they can beat back the Ravens, the Lions will close out their last three games with two more winnable ones--and a decent shot at a 4- or 5-win season.  Today is either the day the Lions roar back to respectability--or the day the scavengers pick their bones clean.

Today is momentous for this site as well; the early birds (heh) amongst you may have already noticed.  Mlive.com sports producer Phil Zaroo has asked me to contribute to his Lions blog, The Highlight Reel.  It was an honor to be asked, and my pleasure to agree!  This week’s piece is already up.  Please, check it out, and let me know what you think.

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Lions at Bengals: Gameday Discussion

It’s been a difficult week for Lions talk.  Between the long, long layoff, the Thanksgiving holiday season, the Lions’ record, and the dim prospect of winning this upcoming game, a lot of the enthusiasm’s been sapped.  Besides that, the college football season has finally begun in earnest, and hockey and basketball are underway, too.  People are more interested in discussing how the Lions can get their hands on Ndamukong Suh than if they can bottle up Chad Ochocinco (who, according to his Twitter feed, already has an elaborate celebration planned for when he scores).

However, the Bengals have been an inconsistent team--they lost to the Raiders!--and have a tendency to let inferior teams hang around with them until late in games. Maybe, just maybe, they'll extend us the same courtesy.  Whether or not they do, let’s talk about it in the comments below.

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