On Thanksgiving, Lions Fans Give Thanks

“…although it be not always so plentiful as it was at this time with us, yet by the goodness of God, we are so far from want that we often wish you partakers of our plenty.”

-- Edward Winslow, A Relation or Journal of the Beginning and Proceedings of the English Plantation Settled at Plimoth in New England

Ten games in to the 2012 season, the Lions have won four games and lost six. Jeff Backus’s 186-game starting streak is about to end. Nate Burleson will be in crutches, cheering from the sideline. Titus Young will be in street clothes, inactivated for insubordination. Jahvid Best may never play again.

Corey Williams is iffy, Aaron Berry is in New York, Bill Bentley is on IR, and Drayton Florence will likely be out with a concussion. Two of the Lions’ top three safeties are on IR, and the third (Delmas) likely won't play either. Everything we thought this season would be is lost, or nearly so.

Now, let us fill Ford Field to the rafters and roar thanks for all our blessings.

Last season was the first season I made the more-literal-than-usual Pilgrimage to Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day. I was not surprised to find the atmosphere as it always seemed at home, on TV: an extra-special mood of festivity, a wide-open expression of joy and pride, a welcoming, party atmosphere.

There's something magical about the Lions on Thanksgiving, doubly so when you're there in person. Through thick and thin, and there's been an awful lot of very thin, this game sells out. It’s an annual national celebration of blessings, and no matter how bleak things have been on- and off-field for the Lions, their fans turn out in force to spend all day reveling in the immutable fact that we are still here.

The Pilgrims themselves gathered ‘round with some corn and some eel and some venison and a few pints of homebrew and toasted their incredible luck at just being able to do so. It’s the same with the Lions and their fans: spit on the team, on the City of Detroit, the State of Michigan, on our way of life all you want. Dismiss us, deny us, wish us all to lose our jobs, whatever.

We are still here.

We're here: 64,000 of us, 750,000 of us, four million of us, ten million of us, and we’re all wearing blue and fake turkeys on our heads and we’re going to raise a glass to one another and scream our fool heads off and you can’t deny it. You can’t take it away. We have our team, we have each other, and we are united in celebration of those simple facts; we are still here.

Whether you are there with me and mine tomorrow morning, or at home in the City of Detroit, or at home somewhere else, or visiting Grandma’s House, or even if you’re on the other side of the world: tomorrow we are all together, united in support of our team and each other.

There have been much, much worse seasons than this one. There have been much, much less exciting versions of our team. There have been much, much worse Thanksgiving Day games than this one will be, even if the Texans beat the Lions by more than the three-point spread. It’s not about the winning or the losing, though a win would be wonderful and a loss the final doom of the Lions’ playoff hopes.

Tomorrow, we give thanks for the blessings we have, and the blessings we have are so many: We have a team, we have a stadium, we have food and drink, we have each other, and we have hope. Always, always we have hope.

By the goodness of God, we are so far from want, we wish you partakers of our plenty.

Read more...

Turkey Day Q&A with TexansChick Steph Stradley

Today, TLiW is thankful for Stephanie Stradley (@StephStradley on Twitter), a Houston lawyer who writes about the Houston Texans for the Houston Chronicle online and a general interest, non-Texans blog at her own site. Stephanie is a sports blog O.G., and one of the very best.

I answered her Qs with my As at her TexansChick Houston Chronicle blog, and after adding her own must-read analysis, she’s provided her own As for us, here:

What are differences between this Texans team and previous ones? And why are Andre Johnson's numbers (with the exception of last week) down this year?

“The Texans offense with few exceptions hasn't had to open up much because with better defense, the team has played with many early leads. Due to salary cap concerns, they had to replace the starting right guard and right tackle, which would also make a team lean toward a more conservative, less-risk filled approach. The strength of the 2012 Texans is their experienced tight ends relative to their young 3-5 WRs, so they can use their TEs to help the offensive line but also to make pass plays and create mismatches.

The Texans have three tight ends that are listed in the top 15 in TE efficiency: Owen Daniels, Garrett Graham and James Casey. Casey is not built like a traditional tight end and came into the league as a do-everything athlete after his remarkable time at Rice University. (Nickname: "Thor"). The Texans use him as a hybrid TE, FB, WR and line him up in various ways. They run/pass out of the same looking formations and create matchup problems for defenses, especially given that no teams look like what the Texans are doing this year.

Andre Johnson is still Andre Johnson. He's made key move-the-sticks plays, and big plays downfield. But this year he has functioned mostly as a "Break Glass In Case of Emergency" option. If the Texans have a big lead, there's no reason to take downfield shots at him. In the game against the Jaguars, he faced some unusual single coverage matchups. In addition, with the Texans down by 14 late, they started running more 3-4 wide receiver sets with a more open offense like they used to do a lot when their defense was terrible. Eventually, if the Texans decide they are going to throw on teams, Andre Johnson is going to get his.

He's a very unselfish player and would rather have wins over stats.

In general, the Texans offense is all about taking advantage of what the defense gives you. Some defenses load up against RB Arian Foster. Some defenses aim at taking Andre Johnson out of the game. So each week the targets are different...the yard can be all about Arian Foster or the TEs or the #2 WR or the Andre Johnson show. They have many ways they can be efficient in moving the ball, and I think Texans coach Gary Kubiak is underrated as a playcaller. (The old "It's the players when things are going well, and the playcalling when things aren't." If you talk to the Texans players, they have a great deal of respect for what Kubiak does).

It's also worth mentioning with Andre Johnson that both he and Matt Schaub were coming off of injury filled seasons where neither one of them had a full camp. Johnson says he is feeling more like himself as the season progresses.”

What are key injuries for this team or players coming off of injury?

“The number one concern is whether standout CB Johnathan Joseph is going to be available for this game given his hamstring issue coming out of the previous game. He's usually the corner who is matched up with the best WR when there's a clear dominant #1. The Texans haven't played a lot of snaps with him off of the field.

Probably the greatest loss for the Texans this year was losing ILB Brian Cushing for the year to an ACL injury suffered against the Jets. He is a physical player against the run and the pass and gave Wade Phillips flexibility for what he could call on defense. Against better offensive teams, his aggressive play in the middle of the field will be missed. Tim Dobbins has played well in replacement, but suffered a shoulder injury after an interception return that makes his return uncertain.

Darryl Sharpton was expected to play alongside Cushing in 2012, but had a hard time coming back from a quad injury suffered last year. He had his first game against the Jaguars after coming off of IR and played well despite the rust. He played well before his injury, and Texans fans will be watching if he is the same player now. He will likely get the start on Thursday.”

What do you think are the strengths of this Texans team?

“Balance. If you look at the best teams in 2012, they are very balanced between offense and defense. In recent years, there's been a trend for teams to be dominant on one side of the ball and use that dominance to overpower opponents. (Typical examples: Patriots, Colts). This year, there's a number of good teams that are balanced: Texans, 49ers, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers. Teams that can win through both their offensive and defensive play.

Even within their offense and defense, they are balanced. They're run/pass playcalling is almost 50/50, and they can be very effective doing either one or both. The Texans defense is balanced as well, being good against both the run and the pass.

The Texans defense third down percentage numbers allowed is absurdly low. Currently the Texans defense leads the league in fewest a 3rd down percentage made at 26%. To put in context, the Bears and 49ers are 2nd and 3rd in that number respectively at 32%, 33%.

The Texans are also 1st in the NFL at Time of Possession (excluding OT) at 34:38. The defense has been doing a great job at forcing punts, and the Texans are usually good for a number of clock chewing offensive drives each game and at the end of games with a lead.”

What concerns Texans fans?

“Special Teams. This is the biggest concern by far. This unit has a number of new faces and new a kicker and punter who weren't the plan A's going into the season. Coverage units rarely worked all together in the preseason, and they did not appear to be a cohesive group going into the season. The unit has had some untimely penalties, and sometimes have created problems with the field position battle. They've looked better in recent weeks, and the hope is that with more time together, they won't lose the Texans games.

The right side of the offensive line. The Texans have been doing an unusual rotation on the right side of their line. Usually it has been fine, but in a couple of games it has led to some cringeworthy shots against Matt Schaub and difficult yards for Arian Foster.

Pass rush other than JJ Watt. Second year defensive linemen JJ Watt has been having an absurdly productive year. They move him up and down the line to give him good matchups, and he often takes advantage. The question for some is whether the other linemen/OLB can take advantage of situations where JJ Watt is being double teamed. Given the wild productivity of the Texans defense in 2012, that might be a quibbling concern.”

What do you think is the best way to beat the Texans?

“Stop the run and don't overpursue such that the best playaction/zone running team in the league kills you. Disguise coverages and bring infrequent, delayed blitzes to keep Matt Schaub from finding a rhythm. Bring quality pass rush with only four rushers and make sure Schaub makes few clean throws.”

What do you think the Texans gameplan will be against the Lions?

“The Texans focus mostly on what they like to do. On defense, stop the run, don't get beat by the deep play, take plenty of hard shots on the quarterback. Give extra attention to what the opponent does best, in this case, make it difficult to throw to Calvin Johnson.

On offense, see what the defense is giving you with the scripted plays at the beginning of the game, and then take advantage of defensive tendencies and matchups. Throw early in the game to amass a big lead and then run a lot late to chew clock.”

Who are some Texans players that Lions fans may not know who may have an impact on the game either in a negative or positive way?

“I've already mentioned the tight ends. Specific to the line, Ben Jones is a rookie who is rotationally playing right guard. He was a quality center in college, didn't play guard but started working on it during camp. He rotates with Antoine Caldwell, and both of them have had some up and down moments. Right tackle Ryan Harris rotates with Derek Newton, and Harris sometimes reports as an eligible receiver in red zone situations.

Those from Michigan may be familiar with rookie WR Keshawn Martin who went to Michigan State. He had his first touchdown last week, and had his best game as a returner last week. The Texans are slowly giving their inexperienced WRs more work, and if this game becomes a shootout, it is easy to hear other receiving target names being called other than just Andre Johnson because of how much Schaub distributes the ball.”

Read more...

Scott Mitchell, Matthew Stafford, and the Ghosts of Thanksgiving Classics Past

“They’ll never win anything with that quarterback.” My grandfather’s steel jaw was set like a trap. His eyes were narrowed into burning slits. Bellies full of turkey and trimmings, he and I were ‘relaxing’ after dinner by—what else?—watching the Lions.

It being 1995, Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus didn’t exist. Dividing yards  by carries to explain why Barry Sanders is better than Emmitt Smith got you branded a pencil-necked geek playing with fake voodoo numbers. Still, my 14-year-old self refused to let that statement go unchallenged.

Unfortunately, being challenged wasn’t exactly my Grandpa’s thing.

"Well . . ." I ventured, swallowing hard. "Actually, Grandpa, Scott Mitchell’s been having an awesome year. I mean, his completion percentage is up around sixty, he’s got a two-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio, he’s on pace to throw for well over four thousand yards . . .”

“He’s a bum,” said my Grandpa. His eyes never wavered from the wood-cabinet-enclosed TV.

An airtight argument, to be sure. But . . . I mean, couldn’t he see? The Lions were outgaining everyone in football! Barry Sanders! Herman Moore! I mustered my logics, and cleared my throat.

“A BUM.” The matter was closed.

Of course, the Lions went on to win that game, 44-38. Mitchell completed 30 of 45 passes for 410 yards, four touchdowns, and just one pick. Barry reeled off 138 yards on 24 carries, including a 50-yard touchdown run. I was quite satisfied with myself; logic and reason and faithful fandom had won the day. These Lions and their incredible air attack were certainly on their way to greatness.

My grandfather wasn’t happy the Lions won that day, at least not visibly so. He seemed appeased. Like, at least this time, the Lions’ absence of bumbling was acceptable to him. Meanwhile, I was punch-drunk on Lions Kool-Aid.

The Lions reeled off four more consecutive victories (seven total) to make the playoffs. Mitchell and the Lions were the second-highest-scoring offense in the NFL that year. Mitchell’s 58.3% completion percentage, 4,338 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions made for the best statistical season any Lions quarterback has had in my lifetime. I thought it was the beginning of a 49ers-esque run of offensive dominance.

Unfortunately, Scott Mitchell was a bum; those Lions never won anything.

As we speak, Matthew Stafford is on pace to complete 61.3% of his passes for 4,548 yards, 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The Lions are the 3rd-highest-scoring team in football. These Lions are 7-3, not 5-6, going into the hallowed Thanksgiving Day game—but unlike 1995, the 2011 Lions started hot. It’s technically possible for these Lions to win their last seven games like the ‘95 team did—but after the midseason stumbles, and with the remaining schedule, that seems like a ridiculous pipe dream.

Just how good are these Lions? We’re still not sure. Are they the team that started 5-0? The team that went 1-3 from mid-October to mid-November? Are they headed for a mediocre 9-7 finish, or an outstanding 12-4? Matthew Stafford is not a bum—but 16 years from now, will he be remembered as the second coming of John Elway, or the second coming of Carson Palmer?

This Thanksgiving Day game will be the truest test of the Lions mettle. The Packers are undefeated; the undisputed reigning champions of the NFL. They’re comfortably atop the NFC North division standings. Until the ultimate crucible of Lambeau Field in Week 17, the Lions will not have a better chance to prove they belong amongst the best of the NFL.

I'm thankful that chance comes during the Lions’ annual showcase game. I’m thankful they can slam the door, once and for all, on decades of futility while a nation full of doubters looks on. I’m thankful they’ll be able to put a barbed-wire fence around Ford Field, and the generations of tradition the Thanksgiving game is imbued with.

Above all, I’m thankful that for the first time in my life, I’ll be there.

That’s right, I’ll be making the Pilgrimage to the Thanksgiving Classic. It’s on the bucket list of every true Lions fan, and I cannot be happier that I’ll be able to scratch it off my own. I’ll be there to cheer the Lions on with everything I’ve got, and give the Lions every possible advantage over the Packers—who, if history holds, will have an audible contingent of supporters there, too.

Though moral victories don’t count, and a good show in a “noble loss” would be bitterly disappointing for all these wonderful opportunities left hanging,  it wouldn’t end the Lions season. If they take care of business against the Vikingses and the Chargerses of the world, the Lions can still make the playoffs without a ‘W’ on T-day.

But, if they can pass this test, if they can fell these giants, every Lions fan everywhere will be able to rejoice: finally, finally, the Lions have taken their place amongst the very best teams in football . . .

. . . and somewhere, my Grandpa will stand up and cheer.

Read more...

Thanksgiving Watchtower: Detroit Lions vs. Packers

This is it.

This game is the game. The game that everything is riding on, the game that everything has come down to. The Lions have done their part through the first ten weeks of the season, going 7-3. They’re neck-and-neck with the Bears, and keeping within striking distance of the 10-0 Packers. They’re two games into the difficult half of their schedule, and though it’s been a painful test, they’re as close to the mountaintop by as anyone could have expected.

With a win, the Lions make the NFC North title race a race again, clawing to within two games of the Packers and picking up the head-to-head tiebreaker. With a win, the Lions will have handled one of the two “hard” games the Bears won’t have to handle. With a win, the Lions solidify their hold on the division-record tiebreaker—the mark that gives the Lions the upper hand on the Bears, even after being blown out by them in Week 9.

The Lions, as always, get a national showcase for this game. After years of hearing the pundits gripe about how our team is harshing America’s collective turkey buzz, there isn’t a game the football-watching world would rather see.

Mike McCarthy vs. Gunther Cunningham

McC	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NOS	14th	21.2	6.43	4.46	TEN	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	12	-43%	8.04	25%	1.53	-66%
NOS	14th	21.8	6.62	3.96	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	24%	9.59	45%	5.83	47%
GBP	3rd	28.8	7.56	4.30	DET	32nd	30.9	5.42	4.42	26	-10%	9.68	28%	3.57	-17%
GBP	3rd	28.8	7.56	4.30	DET	32nd	30.9	5.42	4.42	34	18%	8.92	18%	2.96	-31%
GBP	10th	24.2	7.63	3.81	DET	19th	23.1	6.75	4.51	21	-13%	10.65	40%	4.28	12%
GBP	10th	24.2	7.63	3.81	DET	19th	23.1	6.75	4.51	3	-88%	6.03	-21%	3.30	-13%
GBP	1st	35.5	9.18	3.88	DET	19th	21.9	5.45	4.97

Over the years, Gunther Cunningham’s defenses have consistently put the clamp on Mike McCarthy’s offenses. Time and time again, the Packers fall well short of what you’d expect when a high-flying Packers air attacks meets a mediocre-to-terrible Lions defense. Look at the chart above. Note the respective offensive and defensive ranks, and points-scored deltas: there’s an undeniable trend.

For 2010's first Packers game, I projected the Lions defense to be relatively stingy; they did even better than I projected. When the 10th-ranked scoring offense (7th at the time) faces the 19th-ranked scoring defense (25th at the time), and they score 13% fewer points than average, something is up.

When Watchtowering last year’s second Packers game, I couldn’t fully trust this effect. The numbers, combined with a strong systemic advantage, were projecting a seriously low-scoring effort from Green Bay. I couldn’t believe the Lions’ D could do it again—so when I projected the Packers’ point totals, I pulled back the reins:

It seems unlikely that the Lions’ defense does that well against an offense that good twice in a row, though, so I’m going to project the Packers to slightly underperform scoring expectations: gaining 23-26 points. I expect the Lions to be more successful defending the pass with zone coverage, allowing 8.0-8.5 YpA, at the expense of fewer interceptions. The Lions will likely cede the run to the Packers again, allowing 4.25-4.5 YpC. I have high confidence in this projection.

Of course, nobody could predict the Lions holding the Packers to just a measly field goal. They knocked Aaron Rodgers out of the game with a concussion in the second quarter—and despite what Rodgers and Packer fans will tell you, that wasn’t the only reason the Lions were successful against him. Before leaving the game Rodgers attempted 11 passes, completing seven of them for 46 yards, no touchdowns, and a pick.

This season, the Packers offense is #1 in the NFL, racking up a ridiculous 35.5 points per game. It’s no surprise that Rogers and his array of targets are fueling this scoring machine; they’re moving the ball through the air an average of 9.18 yards a pop. The ground game has struggled at times, but at 3.88 YpC it hasn’t been awful.

After the slew of defensive and return touchdowns in the past two weeks (which I cannot find season scoring totals that correctly exclude), the Lions defense is now technically the 19th-best in the NFL, allowing 21.9 points per game. You can see in the effectiveness stats that those averages don’t reflect the true performance of the secondary: they’re allowing a miniscule 5.45 YpA this season. On the ground, the Lions defense has allowed 4.97 YpC—this is actually an improvement; the Lions are no longer allowing more yards per rushing attempt than passing attempt.

The defense gets sacks, gets turnovers, stiffens up on third down, and gets stops. This is doubly true when the offense isn’t going three and out, or turning it over right back, and the coverage units aren’t allowing scores. On Thanksgiving, the Lions’ defense will need the Lions offense to help them get it done.

Without any systemic advantage, I would expect the Packers to slightly outperfom their season average against the 19th-ranked defense. Taking the strong systemic advantage into account, I project the Packers offense to score 27-30 points, passing for 7.00-7.50 YpA and rushing for 4.25-4.50 YpC. I have medium-high confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Sometimes, my projection seems very close to the “ceiling” or the “floor” of possible scenarios. For example, I thought Monday Night Football game against the Bears could be lower-scoring than I projected, but not higher. This game has wild possible movement in both directions.

All season long, the Packers have gotten themselves caught up in shootouts. They get a big lead early, but their secondary can’t shut down the other team. The Packers then have to keep the pedal to the metal to stay ahead of the other team. It is possible, if not probable, that this happens on Thanksgiving; I have been telling everyone to prepare for a possible 100-point combined effort.

Then again, the Lions scoring defense had been a Top 10 defense all season long, up until the last two weeks’ explosion of turnover- and special-teams-fueled scoring. By Pro Football Focus grades, they’re still the NFL’s second-best pass coverage unit. They simply don’t get beaten through the air.

If the Lions jump out to an early lead instead, I can see the Lions defense shutting the Packers passing game down—and dramatically depressing their scoring output.

Scott Linehan vs. Dom Capers

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Dom	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	HOU	21st	19.3	6.89	3.92	34	34%	7.92	11%	4.69	0%
STL	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	MIA	21st	21.6	6.61	2.35	12	-17%	4.26	-25%	4.30	9%
DET	24th	18.1	5.60	3.91	GBP	12th	20.3	6.17	4.46	0	-100%	4.20	-25%	4.33	11%
DET	27th	16.4	7.80	4.42	GBP	7th	18.6	5.96	3.59	12	-27%	4.95	-37%	3.17	-28%
DET	15th	22.6	6.02	3.99	GBP	2nd	15.0	5.90	4.65	26	15%	6.13	2%	5.86	47%
DET	15th	22.6	6.02	3.99	GBP	2nd	15.0	5.90	4.65	7	-69%	5.32	-0.12	4.63	16%
DET	3rd	30.1	6.79	4.30	GBP	15th	21.2	7.40	4.72

When Scott Linehan offenses meet Dom Capers defenses, something very interesting happens. It’s one of the strongest statistical trends that has ever cropped up in The Watchtower. First, the Linehan offenses tend to rush much better than expected. Second, they tend to outperform scoring expectations as a result. Third, and most interestingly, quarterback runs are wildly more successful than usual.

This was a quirk Commenter Matt noticed back in 2009, and it’s held up. Before last season’s game against the Packers at home, it drove me to boldly predict the following:

The Lions will be starting Drew Stanton, whose running ability is well-known, and whom the Lions have never hesitated to call designed running plays for. I expect to see at least one rushing touchdown, or 20-plus-yard scramble, from Drew Stanton on Sunday.

Stanton rushed 4 times for 44 yards, with a YpC of 10.0 and long of 17. As a whole, Jahvid Best, Maurice Morris, Stefan Logan and Stanton combined for 4.63 YpC, over half a yard per carry better than season averages. Might the Lions draw up some surprise quarterback draws for Stafford? Or, might he scramble for some yardage? It’s something to keep an eye on. Of course, it didn’t translate into any more than a measley seven points, thanks in part to two Stanton picks and a missed field goal.

If the offense turns it over twice in the first three possessions for the third straight week, it’s going to be hard for the Lions to meet expectations.

However, those expectations will be extremely high. The Lions are scoring 30.1 points per game, third-best in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Packers defense is ranked 17th, allowing 21.2 points per game. Keen observers will note the Lions’ and Packers’ units are ranked very, very similarly to each other. Without any kind of systemic advantage factored in I’d project the Lions to slightly outperform season averages, just as said I’d do for the Packers above.

However, we have a strong systemic advantage in place—and look at the per-play effectiveness stats! The Packers’ pass defense is allowing 1.95 more yards per passing attempt than the Lions’. Their rushing-allowed and scoring-allowed figures are nearly identical, though. Again, we know why this discrepancy exists: the Lions defense has been victimized by special teams and defensive scores in the past two weeks.

It’s hard to project Kevin Smith to repeat his NFL Offensive Player of the Week performance, or anywhere close, on Thursday. But his dramatic welcome-back party plays right into the Lions’ hands. With a back that can take advantage of the Lions’ systemic advantage, the Lions should exceed nominal expectations.

Therefore, I project the Lions to score 33-35 points, passing for 7.0-7.50 YpA and rushing for 4.75-5.0 YpC. I have very high confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, jeez, there’s a lot of stuff going on here. The bottom line is that we have two very high-powered offenses, and two middling defenses. However, there are very strong systemic advantages in play when the ball’s moving in either direction, and both of them favor the Lions. There’s a very high potential for a “whoever scores last wins” kind of shootout, in which case whoever scores last will win, and the Packers have won half their games by being the kind of team that always finds a way to score last.

If that’s not what happens, though, the Lions have the upper hand.

The Lions should run and pass more effectively than the Packers, and God willing that will translate into more points—without too much interference from turnovers or return touchdowns. If, however, the Lions play with fire for the third straight week, they will get burned.

Conclusion

Of course, there’s one more factor I haven’t mentioned: us. The Lions fans. The ones who, in the words of Peter King, were the “ninth, 10th, 11th and 12th man in the Oct. 10 Monday night win over the Bears,” and awarded a game ball for our contributions.

If we do our part on Thanksgiving like we did on Monday Night Football, if we force the Packers into beating themselves with false starts and allowed sacks, the Lions will have every opportunity to make my projection of a 33-30 Lions win look brilliant.

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,green bay packers,thanksgiving,the watchtower,jim schwartz,mike mccarthy,gunther cunningham,dom capers

Read more...

Detroit Lions Thanksgiving T-Shirt & DirecTV Remote Giveaway Announcement

As Lions fans, we need to be thankful for what we have. After all the years of failure and ennui, we finally have a winning team—a team worthy of celebrating, a team worthy of our fierce pride and endless support. We have a team we can watch every Sunday, because their performance demands premier viewing slots, and because we fill the stadium every game.

This is a privilege in the NFL: one not earned easily, and one that can be taken away faster than we think possible. I hope Colts and Eagles fans were thankful for their long stretch in the sun, because their time may be up. To that end, I’ve created a new design in my Detroit Lions T-shirt store: “I am THANKFUL.” With quick shipping, you can show everyone your appreciation for this team in person at the game!

Now, not every fan gets to see the Lions live, or even every Sunday. John Tracy from Des Moines is a finalist in DirecTV’s Ultimate Displaced Fan Contest, and he needs as many votes as we can give him. He’ll win the Lions fan experience of a lifetime, and judging by his video it’s well deserved. Click on that link, watch John’s video, and vote him up!

Now, the fun part: in celebration of Lions fans everywhere, I am giving away a customized Lions DirecTV remote. Check this baby out:

All you have to do is A) follow me on Twitter @lionsinwinter, and 2) Tweet the following:

I am thankful to be a Detroit Lions fan! http://t.co/3BIB5hsg #littleblueflame @lionsinwinter

If you want to enter, but you’re stuck with Comcast or Time Warner or something, don’t worry. The winner will get their choice: either the remote, or their favorite T-shirt from my shop. Entries close Saturday night at Midnight ET. I’ll draw a winner at random, LIVE, on my weekly Fireside Chat Detroit Lions podcast, about 10:00 pm ET Sunday night.

Read more...

Turkey coma

After the ultimately-in-vain effort we all could have predicted—and, in fact, I did predict—I spent all of Thanksgiving evening burying my sorrows in a landslide of family, food, and fun.  We spent “black Friday” mostly doing nothing in particular at home.  Yesterday, had “second Thanksgiving” with the other side of the family, and then Mrs. Inwinter’s class reunion.  Throughout, I’ve been away from the computer—and, having temporarily lost my BlackBerry, mostly invisible on Twitter.  For the radio silence, I apologize.

Today is the Lions fan’s annual day of weirdness, a Football Day where there isn’t any football.  We’ve finished grieving for the Lions’ loss—or in those splendid years where the Lions win, we’ve come off our winning high—and are ready for more, but there is no more, and won’t be for a week.  Everyone handles this differently: some rake the leaves or shovel the walk, some catch up on in-home projects, some spend quality time with the family, some go out and Christmas shop . . . and some just watch the other games, indifferently.  I, being who I am, will attempt to do all of the above simultaneously and do a not-quite-good job of each.

So.  However you choose to spend today, whatever pursuits you distract yourself with, enjoy.  Whatever you do in the absence of Lions football, do it well.  I hope you and yours had a wonderful Thanksgiving . . . and I hope I’ll see you tonight at 11 pm EST for the Fireside Chat.

Read more...

The Watchtower: Lions vs. Patriots

The Lions’ Thanksgiving day game is the definition of routine: a tradition since 1934, it happens every single year, like clockwork.  However, it royally messes with the weekly NFL routine; I woke up on Monday and started panicking about the Watchtower.  Further, it’s yet another Very Special Watchtower: the one where the team has no offensive or defensive coordinator.

That's right, it's right there on the Patriots' coaches page: Bill Belichick is the head coach, runs the offense and the defense, and has a cadre of trusted position-coach assistants.  That’s it.  Examining his track record on both sides of the ball, without crediting him too much or too little, is going to be insanely tricky.  So, let’s get right to it.

Bill Belichick vs. Gunther Cunningham

BB	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NEP	25th	17.2	5.63	3.29	KCC	19th	22.1	6.32	3.83	30	74.4%	5.88	4.4%	3.39	3.0%
NEP	10th	23.8	5.91	3.82	TEN	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	7	-70.6%	4.42	-25.2%	4.31	12.8%
NEP	12th	21.8	6.39	3.40	TEN	13th	20.2	6.60	3.79	31	42.2%	7.06	10.5%	5.96	75.3%
NEP	4th	27.3	7.40	4.07	KCC	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	27	-1.1%	12.12	63.8%	3.06	-24.8%
NEP	6th	25.2	7.51	4.58	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	16	-36.5%	6.20	-17.4%	4.11	-10.3%
NEP	1st	28.9	6.85	4.09	DET	22d	23.7	7.13	4.79

As you all most certainly are aware, Belichick started out in New England with a noteworthy offensive coordinator: Charlie Weis, currently the OC in KC.  However, Belichick has a long track record of understanding offense, and calling his team’s offensive plays.  I don’t want to lend too much weight to the first four rows (the Weis) years—but it’s clear that Belichick has had his fingers in the offense the entire time, and further it’s clear that Weis did not take the Patriots’ offensive mojo with him to Notre Dame.

In 2002, New England’s offense and Tennesee’s defense were both pretty good (10th & 11th, respectively), yet the Titans held the Pats to just 7 points, 70.6% below their average.  in 2004, the Pats’ offense was a juggernaut—4th in the NFL—and the Chiefs’ defense was wretched.  Yet, the Patriots’ offensive output precisely matched their season average scored—and the Chiefs’ season average allowed: 27 points.  Sounding great so far . . .

. . . but in 2000, the Patriots offense was well below average (25th, 17.2 ppg), and put up thirty points on the 19th-ranked Chiefs.  In 2003, the Pats and Chiefs were again quite evenly matched in terms of execution (12th and 13th), but the Pats went nuts, scoring 42% above their season average.  So what can we conclude?  Nothing.  This might be the most schizophrenic data I’ve ever seen. 

The only non-Weis data point we have came in 2005, when Belichick’s 6th-ranked Patriots (and their 25.2 PpG average) faced off against Gunther’s 16th-ranked Chiefs, averaging 20.3 points allowed.  Impressively, the Chiefs bottled up the Pats, holding them to just 16 offensive points—a delta of 36%!

Looking at the table above, the only commonality I see between the two best results for the Cunningham defense is how the pass was limited.  In both 2002 and 2005, the Pats were held to well below their season averages in per-play effectiveness through the air—and consequently their scoring output was WELL below normal.  So, if the Lions can manage to hold the Patriots to 85% or less of their 2010 YpA . . .

. . . unfortunately, the Patriots have the #1 offense in the NFL.  They’re scoring 28.9 points per game, and have been surprisingly balanced while doing so.  Averaging 6.85 YpA, and 4.09 YpC, they’ll present an extremely tough out for the Lions defense.  That defense, by the way, is ranked 23rd, allowing 22.4 points per game.  As a point of reference, the Lions were dead last in 2009, 2008, and 2007—and 30th in 2006.  The last time the Lions defense was this good was in 2005, when they were ranked 21st and allowed 21.6 ppg.

Still, I don't see an out-of-nowhere performance that holds the Pats to 13 points happening, here.  Bill Belichick respects Schwartz, a former assistant, too much to show up for this game unprepared—and when was the last time BB let that happen anyway?  With no systemic advantage or disadvantage, save a possible what-if-they-don’t-pass-for-beans-corollary that I don’t see coming to fruition, I project the Patriots to meet expectations against the Lions, scoring 30-35 points, netting 7.0-7.50YpA, and garnering 4.25-4.50 YpC.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, the sold-out crowd should help the Lions, if it’s not over in the fourth quarter.  Belichick knows Schwartz well, but Schwartz also knows Belichick well.  My guess is we’ll see some creative wrinkles from Gun, and likely some go-for-broke blitzes as well.  However, I don’t see that adding up to a mysteriously stout passing defense shutting down Tom Brady.  I’m pretty sure the 30-35 projection will be accurate.

Scott Linehan vs. Bill Belichick

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Wade	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTS?	YpA	YpA?	YpC	YpC?
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	NEP	17th	21.6	5.91	3.82	17	-30.3%	5.55	-15.9%	6.12	15.5%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	NEP	17th	21.1	7.30	3.44	16	-19.6%	7.66	29.0%	3.08	-16.5%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	NEP	17th	21.1	7.30	3.44	26	30.7%	6.83	15.0%	3.70	0.3%
STL	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	NEP	8th	19.3	6.68	4.40	16	10.3%	8.85	56.1%	3.46	-12.4%
DET	15th	23.4	5.84	3.45	NEP	23rd	24.2	6.85	4.24

Ah, here we go: a good old-fashion OC vs. DC comparison, even if the DC in question wasn’t the DC for the first matchup.  In fact, in the interests of time, let’s skip the fourth matchup too: it came with the Rams, after Linehan was fired, and that data has been notoriously unreliable as I’ve worked through these Watchtowers.

Fortunately, that leaves us with the best data possible: two points in the same season with the same teams.  Better yet, in the year that it occurred—2005—these two units were remarkably similar to this 2010 matchup.  The Dolphins were ranked 16th on offense, averaging 5.94 YpA and 3.69 YpC.  The Lions are ranked 15th on offense, averaging 5.84 YpA and 3.45 YpC (these numbers were spooky-close before the Cowboys game dragged them down: 5.95 and 3.63!).  In ‘05, the Pats were ranked 17th on defense, allowing 21.1 PpG, 7.30 YpA, and 3.44 YpC.  This season, the Pats are much more balanced in run/pass effectiveness (6.85/4.24), but notably worse in scoring prevention: ranked 23rd, they’re allowing 24.2 points per game. 

So, given this perfect little test kitchen for what happens when a Scott Linehan offense meets a Bill Belichick 3-4 hybrid defense . . . what happened?  In the first contest, the Fins managed only 16 points, 19.6% below their season averages.  Oddly, they passed for well above their season average: 7.66 YpA, 29.0% above their norm.  However, they ran for only 3.08 YpC, down 16.5% (and terrible in an absolute sense).  In the second contest, the Fins scored 26, 30.7 above their average.  They passed for 6.83 YpA, splitting the difference between their norms and the first game—but ran for 3.70 YpC, exactly meeting their season average.  In fact, the only difference I can find is weather:

Stadium: Dolphin Stadium, Start Time: 1:00, Surface: grass, Weather: 77 degrees, relative humidity 63%, wind 15 mph [Dolphins scored 16 points]

Stadium: Gillette Stadium, Start Time: 1:00, Surface: grass, Weather: 28 degrees, relative humidity 83%, wind 11 mph, wind chill 18 [Dolphins scored 26 points]

That's right, the Dolphins did much better on the road, in nasty weather . . . of course, this game will be at home, in a dome.

The bottom line here is that I’m finding wildly variant results.  With no systemic advantage, or disadvantage, I expect Scott Linehan’s balanced offense to meet expectations against Bill Belichick’s 3-4 hybrid defense: 23-27 points, 5.5-6.5 YpA, and 3.5-3.75 YpA.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

We saw a big jump from Shaun Hill in his third game as a Lions starter, nearly outdueling Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.  He was clearly much better against the Cowboys than Bills—and if he takes another step forward towards the form he showed in Green Bay, and against the Rams, the Lions could definitely keep pace in a shootout.  However, the Lions just can’t run the ball right now, and I have to think the 8-2 Pats are ready to pin their ears back and win a turkey leg, or that iron, or that horrible robot turkey, or whatever it is they give out these days.

One little thing to keep an eye on: trickeration.  Schwartz knows Belichick, and Belichick knows Schwartz.  This game is the Lions’ signature game, and last season they started Matthew Stafford, the franchise quarterback, despite a separated shoulder and no practice.  Hmm.  I’m not suggesting that Stafford starts this game, necessarily, but that we see The Grandmaster dig into that “HB Option Pass” section of the playbook—perhaps even the offensive package for Ndamukong Suh?  A side projection: we will see at least one offensive play or package from the Lions that we haven’t ever seen before.  Keep that in your back pocket.

Conclusion:

I’ve been burned three weeks in a row—three straight times I’ve projected Lions victory and had my heart ripped out (along with all of you).  This time, the data leads me down no primrose path: the most likely result of this game is a 32-24 Lions loss.  I hope it’s close in the fourth quarter, I hope there are some signature moments, and I hope the nation comes away feeling like the Lions are interesting again.  I also hope the Lions win, but I have no objective reason to think they will.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,thanksgiving,new england patriots,bill belichick,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan

Read more...

Gameday chat: Thanksgiving

We, as Lions fans, don’t have a whole lot to be thankful for—at least, not when it comes to our team.  However, we do have one special day: today.  Our team has been synonymous with this holiday for three quarters of a century.  Today, the record goes out the window, and the blue bonfire roars.  Today, Ford Field sells out, no problem.  Today, the entire nation will tune in to see the new-look Lions.

Of course, they probably won’t see the new-look Lions.  Matthew Stafford is officially doubtful, and Megatron is questionable.  The stage has been set for yet another Thanksgiving bloodbath, and yet another chorus of national fans and media grousing about having to watch the lousy Lions.

Fortunately, the new head coach knows the importance of this game—both to the franchise itself, and to its fans.  Even having been on the opposing sideline here last year—and thus contributing the most complete dominations of one football team by another I’ve ever seen—he knows how important it is that this game remain the national showcase for the Lions, and for Lions fans everywhere.

Please, share your thoughts on the game, your warm Lions memories, and your Thanksgiving thanks in the comments.  Happy Thanksgiving, to you and yours.

Read more...