Watchtower Review: Lions at Broncos

The accuracy of last week's Watchtower was a wildly pleasant surprise--both in terms of the confidence I had in the projection, and in the result itself.

I project the Broncos to score 15-17 points, pass for 5.75-6.25 YpA, and rush for 4.75-5.50 YpC. I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection.

Turns out this gave the Broncos too much credit. The Lions defense hassled Tim Tebow and the offense all day, excepting only the first and last drives (which netted the Broncos their 10 points). The Broncos ran for a ridiculous 195 yards on 30 carries, a stonking 6.4 YpC.

In a lesson I'm trying to drive home with a sledgehammer, THAT DOESN'T MATTER.

Points come out of the passing game, and the Broncos neither passed nor scored. They gained 172 aerial yards on 39 attempts, a miserable 4.41 YpA. They were sacked 7 times for –55 yards, fumbled five times (lost two, including one for a touchdown) and interception (also returned for a touchdown).

The Lions should score 30-34 points, averaging 8.50-9.0 YpA and 4.00-4.25 YpC, and so I will project them to, but at this point I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection, despite having plenty of data.

Bingo. The Lions scored 31 offensive points, passed for 8.50 YpA, and rushed for 4.04 YpC. This officially qualifies as spookily accurate. I thought the Lions could win even bigger or make it much closer, though, and said so:

In fact, what the Lions should score is almost assuredly what they will not; they’re more likely to do much better or worse than to meet expectations square on the nose.

Whoops. The Lions spooked me so bad with the Falcons game that I just couldn’t trust the numbers:

Given that the Lions offensive starters have more talent than the Broncos 53-man roster put together, I’m not sure why I feel so bad about signing my name to that projection. Maybe it’s because I said almost the same score last week and was brutally disappointed. However, Denver is not Atlanta—not even close. And I have to believe the Lions defense will feast on Tebow and the Broncos offense, giving Stafford many bites at the apple. Worst-case scenario, the D should have some chances to take matters into their own hands, as they did against Minnesota and Dallas.

. . . and indeed they did, boosting the Lions up to a 45-10 clobbering.

As I said in the Fireside Chat, this win, in this fashion, with these stats, proves the numbers right; the Lions are who we thought they were. They are one of the best offenses in the NFL, and one of the most opportunistic defenses in the NFL. When both units are “on” they play football at a very, very, very high level.

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Three Cups Deep: Lions at Broncos

Espresso impresario David Schomer once offered this advice to Seattle-area espresso cart owners about the winter months:

During January and February, hunker down and dream of springtime. No one does great business during the after-Christmas slowdown, and it is particularly hard when you face your coldest weather at that same time. Do not close! The coffee business is built on daily customers who have a habit of stopping at your stand. If you close for a couple of months they will be gone.

The blue fire had been slowly waning over the last few weeks, from an unstoppable inferno to a relaxed, comfortable bonfire. Last week at this time, the fire shuddered alarminglyy, and I realized that the wood racks were almost bare. I set to work with the axe and sled, and many offered their hands and backs in the effort.

Today, all is well. The 45-10 defeat of the hapless Broncos set everything as back it was: the defensive line ate well all afternoon, hauling Tebow down seven times. Matthew Stafford completed 70.0% of his passes for 8.90 YpA, three touchdowns, and no picks. Calvin Johnson hit a home run, and came within several inches of tacking on a second score. The Lions defense outscored the Broncos all by themselves; even if the Lions offense had been completely shut out the Lions would still have Mile High Stadium At Whatever the Corporate Sponsor’s Name Is Geographic Location as winners.

Now, we have the bye week . . . a disruption in the rhythm that keeps us hooked into the Lions seven days a week in-season. Every day, we go to our favorite sites knowing what to expect: the recap, the rehash, the opinion, the analysis, the preview. Somewhere around Thursday it’ll hit us that there will be no Lions football this week.  We’ll break our habit. We’ll attend to the yardwork or that light switch or play catch in the yard or maybe even take a nap.

Meanwhile, the NFL will rage on. The Bears will host the Panthers, and unless Cam Newton does to Chicago what he couldn’t to Minnesota, the Bears will draw to within a game of the Lions. This will make the Lions return to action all-important. Pivotal. Season-defining. If the Lions can defeat the Bears, that’s a 2-game lead with all the tiebreakers; effectively a three-game lead with just six games to play.

The Lions would have the beautiful luxury of being able to go 3-4 through the meat grinder and still end up at 10-6—and likely, in the playoffs. The Lions could dispatch the Panthers and Vikings in Ford Field, and split at Oakland or at home against the Chargers, and still have a nearly guaranteed postseason berth. Were the Bears to lose to Carolina, the Lions could even suffer a Marinellian post-Chicago collapse and still be the second-best team in the NFC North.

In the past, the old bye-week joke has gone, “Well, at least the Lions can’t lose this week.” Instead, let’s be disappointed we can’t get our every-Monday cup of victory.

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Fireside Chat Week 8: Lions vs. Broncos

It was very, very nice to get back to dissecting a win during the Fireside Chat this week. We talked expectations, schedule, the bye week, and memetics. No, really:

Remember, if you dig it you can join in around 10ish every Sunday night; hit the Podcast page at the top to see all the zillion ways you can listen!

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The Watchtower: Lions at Broncos

This game sets fire to the Watchtower concept as a whole. Everything about this game confounds this process. The Broncos offensive coordinator has never been a coordinator, or even a coach, under anyone but John Fox. Even if he had, the offense the Broncos are running for Tebow is nothing like the one the Panthers ran with Jake Delhomme, etc.

On the Lions side, the offense of the last two weeks has not resembled the offense of the first five. Last week, I happily predicted a 34-37 point performance for the Lions, and they couldn’t muster half that. Is this a harbinger of things to come for the rest of the season, or just a bump in the road?

I can’t tell you. But what I can do is compare the two teams’ performances so far, and tell you what ought to happen.

Mike McCoy vs. Gunther Cunningham

McCoy

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

DEN

21st

20.5

6.35

4.39

DET

7th

19.6

5.57

5.03

As I said above, Mike McCoy has one of the weirdest resumes I’ve ever broken down. He played quarterback in the CFL. After retiring, he immediately joined the Panthers under OC Bill Musgrave, who I Watchtowered earlier this year (he’s now the Vikings OC). After Musgrave resigned in shame, the Panthers brought in Dan Henning, the current Miami OC (the guy who deployed Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the Wildcat).

It was under Henning that McCoy ascended from "offensive assistant" to QB coach. Though Henning was fired after a disappointing 2006 campaign, Fox kept McCoy around. Henning was replaced by Jeff Davidson, a member of the Belichick/Weis coaching tree. It's likely this experience that's informing McCoy's current offense, with a lot of multi-WR shotgun and multi-TE inside runs.

However, trying to analyze Gunther Cunningham’s success against Weis-style offenses would be folly, because once the ball is snapped, the plans go out the window.

When the Broncos line up under center, they’re doing a nice mix of power runs and clever zone stretch type stuff. Very very very little passing, and even then it’s one-read stuff like screens. When the Broncos line up in shotgun, it’s either a screen, or Tebow Time.

Ndamukong Suh and Cliff Avril are going to have three sacks apiece. Why? They’re relentless in pursuit. Tebow, if he doesn’t have an obvious read, breaks down and starts running around looking to make something happen. It reminds me—a lot—of Mike Vick. Tebow isn’t quite as dangerous on a broken play as Vick, but he’s plenty dangerous. What Tebow must work on is executing the offense; when you see the Broncs line up in a multi-WR shotgun the playcall is effectively “Broken Play.”

The Broncos are averaging 20.5 points per game, 21st-best in the NFL. The Lions scoring defense is ranked 7th, allowing just 19.6. The Broncos are averaging 6.35 YpA, and a solid 4.39 YpC. The Lions are still only allowing 5.57 YpA, which is really pretty incredible. However, the run defense is still alowing 5.03 YpC. I project the Broncos to score 15-17 points, pass for 5.75-6.25 YpA, and rush for 4.75-5.50 YpC. I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection.

Scott Linehan vs. John Fox

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Fox	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.30	CAR	5th	18.9	5.73	3.69	14	-43%	6.37	-3%	4.06	-23%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	CAR	5th	16.2	5.79	3.59	27	36%	5.18	-13%	4.80	30%
STL	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	CAR	8th	19.1	6.00	3.87	0	-100%	4.17	-38%	3.75	-12%
DET	6th	27.7	7.19	4.08	DEN	29th	25.8	7.43	3.86

An itinerant, quick-climbing defensive backs coach in college and the pros, John Fox was Pitt’s Defensive Coordinator/DBs coach when Chuck Noll hired him to coach DBs for the Steelers. John Fox is technically a member of the Chuck Noll coaching tree, but if you’re looking for an extensive 3-4 pedigree, you’ll have to look elsewhere.

After three seasons in Pittsburgh, Fox moved on to play the same role in San Diego. He was hired to coordinate the Raiders D by Art Shell, and stuck around for the first year of the Mike White days. Though Fox’s defenses were 17th and 10th in his two years, Fox abruptly resigned as Raiders DC. He has since hinted that clashes with Al Davis forced him out.

His next real gig was coordinating the Giants defense under Jim Fassel; he eventually built a top 5 defense that took the Giants to the Super Bowl. He got his first head coaching job replacing a legend: Carolina Panthers coach George Seifert. Of course, Seifert wasn’t a legend for his work in Carolina, and Fox’s nine-year run nearly quintupled his predecessor’s. Throughout almost all of this, Fox ran a very effective 4-3.

Of course, the Broncos just switched to a 3-4 a couple of years ago, but that didn’t stop Fox from declaring his intent to switch back. The stunning lack of talent on the defensive side is exactly what you’d expect from a team that has overhauled it’s roster to go from 4-3 to 3-4 and back in three seasons.

In Fox’s prior meetings with Linehan, though, lack of talent was never a problem. In 2002, Linehan’s 8th-ranked Minnesota Vikings took on Fox’s 5th-ranked Panthers. Despite an offense that was putting up 24.4 points per game, the Vikings only mustered 14 against Fox’s Panthers. The Vikes’ potent 5.30 YpC rushing attack was held to just 4.06. Minnesota passed for 6.37 YpA, just 3% off their usual pace, but were intercepted 4 times, sacked 5 times, and were fortunate to only lose 1 of their 4 fumbles.

In 2005, things were different. Linehan’s Dolphins were the median offense in the NFL, while Fox’s Panther defense was almost identical to his 2002 unit. They were ranked 5th, allowing an average of 16.2 PpG, 5.79 YpA and 3.59 YpC. Semi-miraculously, the Dolphins actually scored 36% better than average, not at all what you’d expect from the 16th-ranked offense meeting the 5th-ranked defense. In that game, the Panthers slowed the Fins passing attack by 13%, but Ronnie Brown had a field day, boosting the Dolphins rushing effectivness by 30% to 4.80 YpC. Worth noting: Fins QB Gus Frerotte had only one pick, and there  were no sacks or fumbles.

In 2006, it was back to the same old story. Linehan’s Rams were the 10th-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging 22.9 points per game. Fox’s Panthers were again a top ten unit, ranked 8th and allowing 19.1 PpG. The Panthers stone cold shut out the Rams, allowing zero points, a meager 4.17 YpA, and 3.75 YpC. The Rams had one pick, one fumble lost, and were sacked seven times for –62 yards.

We see a pattern emerge: when a Scott Linehan offense surrenders sacks and turnovers to a John Fox, scoring is ridiculously and wildly depressed, as well as offensive efficiency. When the offensive line is able to control the line of scrimmage, Linehan offenses are disproportionately successful at scoring, and possibly running the ball.

This year’s Broncos are nothing like the vaunted Panthers defenses of the 2000s. Ranked 29th in the NFL, they’re allowing 25.8 PpG , 7.43 YpA,  and 3.75 YpC. The rushing defense is solid, but they’re being victimized through the air and allowing points in bunches. The Lions, technically, are the 6th-best offense in the NFL, averaging 27.7 points per game, 7.19 YpA, and 4.08 YpC.

In theory, the Lions have a massive advantage here. They should be able to complete passes and move the ball against a hapless Broncos pass defense. They should be able to make hay with Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams in the space this opens up. The Lions should score 30-34 points, averaging 8.50-9.0 YpA and 4.00-4.25 YpC, and so I will project them to, but at this point I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection, despite having plenty of data.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Well, there are plenty of these. Matthew Stafford will likely play, but will he play well? Will the Lions offense play like an average of all the games they’ve played to date, or like an average of the last two weeks? Will they control the line of scrimmage, deny sacks, and run the ball effectively, or have Stafford on the run again? In fact, what the Lions should score is almost assuredly what they will not; they’re more likely to do much better or worse than to meet expectations square on the nose.

Conclusion

Well, uh. The averages and stuff project a 33-17 Lions win.

Given that the Lions offensive starters have more talent than the Broncos 53-man roster put together, I’m not sure why I feel so bad about signing my name to that projection. Maybe it’s because I said almost the same score last week and was brutally disappointed. However, Denver is not Atlanta—not even close. And I have to believe the Lions defense will feast on Tebow and the Broncos offense, giving Stafford many bites at the apple. Worst-case scenario, the D should have some chances to take matters into their own hands, as they did against Minnesota and Dallas.

Those of you who've been reading a while already know my final word; I wouldn't have deployed the bold if I didn't mean it. 33-17, Lions.

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Drew Stanton and Tim Tebow: 2 Sides of A NFL Coin FLIP

In some ways, the NFL is an unflinching meritocracy. With billions of dollars on the line nobody gets a scholarship. The players who can play, play. The coaches who can coach, coach. The executives pair one with the other. Anyone not pulling their weight is gone in a heartbeat.

Yet somehow, people slip through the cracks.

Good players get hurt, or put in the doghouse. Coaches get stuck with players they don’t want. Players land into specific systems that hide their flaws and magnify their strengths—or the other way around. Problems with chemistry and synergy can make working relationships untenable. Success and failure in the NFL are, sometimes literally, a coin flip apart.

Drew Stanton and Tim Tebow are two sides of the same coin. Both moved across thousands of miles in their youth. Both became highly touted high school quarterback prospects. Stanton, a Rivals 4-star prospect, was Rivals’ 6th-best pro-style QB. Tebow was a 5-star, and Rivals’ No. 1 dual-threat QB. Both were multidimensional athletes who had real potential as baseball prospects. Both led their team to a state championship; Stanton in back-to-back years.

“Desire to win is unmatched . . . brings every intangible you want at the QB position.”

– Mel Kiper

Stanton and Tebow attended in-state schools. Both contributed to their teams immediately in unconventional ways (Stanton a special teams gunner, Tebow a situational change-of-pace quarterback).  They were strong, vocal leaders who often willed their team to win. Both gained yards on the ground both by accident and design, and through athleticism and toughness rather than speed.

Clearly, Tebow ascended to greater collegiate heights than Stanton did: with a much better coach and supporting cast, Tebow won a Heisman Trophy, and led his Gators to a BCS National Championship. Stanton cracked several Heisman watchlists throughout his career, but he and his inconstant Spartans simply weren’t at that level. Stanton, however, didn’t leave the record books untouched: he lead the biggest comeback win in NCAA history.

“I still believe the positives outweigh the negatives . . . He possesses all the physical tools to eventually emerge as a starting quarterback in the NFL, including the size, arm strength and athletic ability . . . also shows the toughness and competitiveness necessary to make it at the next level.”

–Todd McShay

Tebow was unquestionably the better college quarterback, but Stanton was unquestionably the better professional prospect. Both quarterbacks went to the Senior Bowl; Stanton completed 8 of 12 passes for 63 yards and a touchdown and was named the North’s Offensive MVP. As McShay said, Tebow’s week in Mobile “could not have gone worse from an on-the-field standpoint.”

Scouts, Inc. graded Stanton as an 87, an “Outstanding Prospect,” a high second-round grade. Tebow got a 78, a third-round grade. Most observers (including myself) pegged Tebow as a third-rounder—whether as a long-term quarterback project, or as an an unholy marriage of Chris Cooley and Kordell Stewart: “fullback/H-back/tight end/linebacker.”

"Has a well-built, natural frame with good arm length, broad shoulders, developed chest, good bubble, thick thighs . . . thick chest muscles, more in the line of a linebacker, with defined calves . . . Shows good athleticism, with nimble feet that defenses must always account for."

–CBS Sports

The Lions traded down to the 43rd overall pick to select Stanton. Per Scouts, Inc. that was right where he should have been drafted (he was their 41st-ranked prospect). But in the draft, as they say, it only takes one team to fall in love—and then-Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels was smitten with Tebow.

The Broncos dealt the 114th, 70th, and 43rd (!) pick in the 2010 draft to move up to #25 overall and take Tebow. That’s right—the Broncos traded away the exact same slot the Lions used to draft Stanton, plus a 3rd- and 4th-rounder, to draft Tebow and make him their quarterback of the future.

"Smart, hard-working and patient with the football. I liked most that I rarely saw him rush things . . . poised in the pocket."

–Matt Miller

Stanton was not beloved by the Lions coaches; offensive coordinator Mike Martz wanted nothing to do with him. McShay said in the wake of the 2010 Senior Bowl that Tim Tebow needed to be completely torn down and rebuilt as a quarterback; Martz tore Stanton down like that but never rebuilt him. The Lions put Stanton on IR to save a roster spot, and he lost a season of mental and physical practice. Stanton’s mechanics were ruined, and he was getting no coaching and no reps in Martz’s complicated offense.

When Martz was fired after the 2007 season, the Lions simplified the playbook and called in a new quarterbacks coach: former Michigan QB coach Scott Loeffler. Loeffler undid what Martz had done, restoring Stanton’s natural throwing motion. Stanton flashed a little of that magic in a preseason game against the Bengals; he threw a 50-yard touchdown and ran for another. I’m embedding this fan-shot video because it is terrible as it is awesome:

Stanton was again injured, and again stashed on IR, and again his progress halted. After one season working with Stanton, Loeffler was hired away from the Lions by the University of Florida—to polish up Tim Tebow.

It’s here where Stanton’s career as a Lion truly begins, with the hiring of Jim Schwartz and Scott Linehan. With every OTA, training camp, and preseason since Stanton has taken a step forward. Last season, Stanton did what everyone had waited for: he started and won a big game for the Detroit Lions. It wasn't always pretty, but he got the W. His contract ended after last season, but Lions GM Martin Mayhew brought Stanton back:

"Scott [Linehan] came in during year three and we saw a dramatic improvement in his ability, his throwing and his accuracy and all those things got better. But still, they weren't quite where you wanted them to be."

"We got into training camp and he had a pretty good camp, he made plays for us in the preseason. And then late in the year, we called on him to play and start and he won some games for us as a starter. I really didn't envision him doing that prior to this season, being able to get that done.”

"I thought he showed a lot of improvement so we plan on having him here this year and seeing if he continues to improve that way."

Tebow went through nearly the opposite path. He was drafted by an organization that believed completely in his ability to be a premier NFL quarterback . . . and then the rug got pulled out from under him. McDaniels was fired, along with anyone who had any investment in Tebow’s success. John Elway and John Fox were brought in to start a new-new era of Broncos Football, and Tebow suddenly had to prove his worth.

Last week, Fox trusted Tebow with the starting job, and Tebow delivered victory. Like Stanton's big win against the Packers, Tebow put some ugly stuff on tape—but he made it happen when it counted.

If you hadn’t guessed, all of the above scouting blockquotes are about Stanton, not Tebow. It’s not a stretch to say that Drew Stanton, as a player, is Tim Tebow’s professional upside. They share weaknesses, only Stanton’s aren’t so weak—and where Tebow’s stronger, like literal strength, it’s less useful in the NFL.

While Tim Tebow's immaculate character borders on caricature, Stanton is quietly one of the best “good guys” around. His relentless charity work has earned Stanton a perennial stranglehold on the Lions’ Robert Porcher Man of the Year award. There will never be a plaque immortalizing a Stanton motivational speech, but Stanton most certainly knows how heavy a football team is when you place one on your back and carry it.

In the infinite possibilities of other dimensions and alternate timelines, there are Drew Stanton who were drafted by a good team that believed in him, and he’s now coming off his first Pro Bowl appearance. In others, Tim Tebows are moonlighting on special teams and goal-line offense packages.

In our corner of the multiverse, Tebow is the starting quarterback for a Denver Broncos organization that could be secretly hoping he fails. As Tebow faces the Lions this Sunday, Stanton will be be watching from the sidelines—possibly in street clothes, inactive as the Lions’ third quarterback.

Will either have a long, successful NFL career? Eh, flip a coin.

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The Watchtower: Lions Vs. Redskins

Last night, I threw a question out to the Twitter followers: “Should I work on an excellent gameday post, or a Watchtower I likely won’t finish?”  The only answer I got back was from @derylgarland, who said “Will one choice make Michigan’s defense less sucky?”  The answer, of course, was no—so, tilting at a windmill, I started a Watchtower I knew I couldn’t finish. 

Mike Shanahan vs. Gunther Cunningham

Shan	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
DEN	KCC	9th	24.3	6.81	4.53	1st	15.1	5.41	4.38	7	5.35	2	3.27	3-1	3-14
DEN	KCC	9th	24.3	6.81	4.53	1st	15.1	5.41	4.38	10	6.72	0	4.00	2-2	3-38
DEN	KCC	4th	24.4	6.40	4.50	11th	18.8	6.60	3.78	14	5.20	2	5.96	0-0	2-18
DEN	KCC	4th	24.4	6.40	4.50	11th	18.8	6.60	3.78	34	8.94	2	4.95	2-1	0-0
DEN	KCC	1st	29.5	6.81	4.57	1st	14.5	6.43	3.92	22	7.48	0	3.38	2-1	6-38
DEN	KCC	1st	29.5	6.81	4.57	1st	14.5	6.43	3.92	14	8.95	0	3.40	4-2	1-7
DEN	KCC	2nd	31.3	7.38	4.70	22nd	22.7	6.23	3.81	30	7.83	0	5.86	0-0	1-6
DEN	KCC	2nd	31.3	7.38	4.70	22nd	22.7	6.23	3.81	35	12.50	1	3.21	2-2	2-17
DEN	KCC	18th	19.6	6.17	4.01	13th	20.1	6.02	3.75	10	5.55	2	3.38	4-2	2-16
DEN	KCC	18th	19.6	6.17	4.01	13th	20.1	6.02	3.75	10	6.31	1	4.61	0-0	2-19
DEN	KCC	2nd	30.3	7.46	4.48	19th	22.1	6.32	3.83	15	6.71	1	4.83	2-2	1-11
DEN	KCC	2nd	30.3	7.46	4.48	19th	22.1	6.32	3.83	0	6.69	0	3.79	1-1	2-9
DEN	KCC	9th	23.8	7.68	4.37	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	34	7.93	2	5.33	3-1	1-9
DEN	KCC	9th	23.8	7.68	4.37	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	17	7.12	2	6.14	2-1	5-19
DEN	KCC	7th	24.7	6.94	4.68	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	30	5.97	0	5.97	2-0	2-0
DEN	KCC	7th	24.7	6.94	4.68	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	9.52	2	4.52	0-0	2-19
WAS	DET	22nd	18.6	6.89	4.10	23rd	22.4	7.13	4.79

Here’s why I couldn’t do it: Shanahan and Cunningham have a long, long history of facing each other as coordinators, longer than any I’ve ever written up before.  Dave Birkett of the Free Press wrote an excellent article that explores their rivalry and relationship:

"Like I said, that system is a special system," Cunningham said. "I know a lot about it, obviously. I can run the plays myself."

Over the years, there’s been a tug-of war between the two—but Cunningham has had the upper hand, by Watchtower reckoning.  Looking at their respective units, both men have had some incredible successes; in 1997 Shanahan led the best offense in the NFL against Cunningham’s best defense in the NFL—and in both games, Cunningham’s defense held Shanahan’s offense well below their average on the season.  In the second game, they even held them a half-point below their average allowed!  There are several other examples in the table above where Shanahan’s offense dramatically underperformed expectations.

In 1999, the only season where Cunningham's defense was clearly better than Shanahan's offense, the Broncos were held to ten offensive points in both games—when the Broncos were averaging almost 20 on the year.

The handful of examples where the Broncos met or exceeded their season averages, there’s a common thread: exceptional yards-per-attempt averages.  You see, Shanahan deploys the most run-heavy variant of the Bill Walsh “West Coast” offense: even when his passing game is devastatingly efficient, it’s not for very high yards-per-attempt.  Look at 1997 (highlighted with double-white): the Broncos were the #1 scoring offense in the NFL, yet averaging only 6.81 YpA.  That’s healthy, to be sure, but typically elite offenses average between 7 and 8 YpA.  Now look at the YpC: 4.57.  Shanahan’s offenses are most fearsome when the running game is rolling, not when the passing game is exploding.

Cunningham has thus focused on depressing the rushing yardage—and has been largely successful.  When he’s failed to stop Shanahan is when the passing defense completely fails, and Shanahan’s offense starts racking up atypically huge YpA.  Therefore, I’m comfortable concluding: given greater, equal, or lesser talent, Gunther Cunningham’s defenses have a systemic advantage in depressing scoring, by aggressively attacking the run—but if Shanahan’s offense can counter with the deep pass, this effect is negated.

This season, the Redskins’ offense is ranked 22nd, averaging 18.6 points per game.  The running game is uncharacteristically mediocre (4.10 YpC), due at least in part to Clinton Portis’s groin injury—but Ryan Torain has been an admirable fill-in.  The Skins’ offensive line is aging, though, so if Gunther can do what he normally does against Shanahan, the Lions could depress scoring indeed.  The only question will be, can Donovan McNabb exploit the Lions secondary?  I project the Redskins will score 13-17 points, average 7.00-7.50 YpA, and muster 3.25-3.50 YpC.  I have high confidence in this prediction.

Scott Linehan vs. Jim Haslett

Lin	Has	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
MIN	NOS	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	26th	24.2	6.42	4.14	32	8.67	0	5.84	1-0	3-19
MIN	NOS	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	26th	24.2	6.42	4.14	38	6.17	2	6.71	4-1	2-8
MIA	NOS	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	26th	24.2	6.42	4.14	33	10.34	0	3.73	0-0	6-26
DET	WAS	6th	25.2	5.95	3.63	9th	19.0	6.75	4.69

I’m flat-out running out of time for this part, and I’m deeply sorry.  But we don’t have very good data anyway—Linehan’s offense has had a massive talent advantage every time they’ve met—and have met the expectations that that would engender, doing very very well each time.  The only conclusion I can draw from this is that the Lions will meet expectations—and the Lions, ranked sixth in the NFL with 25.2 points per game, should score 20-23 points against the 9th-ranked Redskins defense.  I have very low confidence in this prediction.

Conclusion

Okay folks, I'm calling it: with Stafford back, a mostly-full home crowd, DeAndre Levy, and a winning streak (!) going against the Redskins, the most likely outcome of the game is a 20-14 Lions victory.

.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,washington redskins,jim schwartz,mike shanahan,gunther cunningham,scott linehan,jim haslett

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Three Cups Deep: The Eye of the Hurricane

With the weekend’s whirlwind of roster moves giving way to a holiday calm, we have  a moment to reflect on where the Lions are at, and where they’re going—as they forge into the vicious winds of Solider Field.  Sports Illustrated’s Damon Hack broke down the Lions, and their chances for success in 2010, on last night’s Fireside Chat podcast.

In my post-interview segment, I had a brain fart and started talking about the Lions’ newest defensive back, Alphonso Smith, as if he was selected in the 2010 draft instead of the 2009.  As soon as I realized my mistake, I wondered where my wires got crossed . . . it didn’t take me long to remember.

Last season, Steve of Detroit Lions Weblog and I collaborated in a blogger mock draft, and who was our second-round selection?  None other than Alphonso Smith.  Here’s what I said at the time:

Smith possesses all the tools of a prime time NFL cover corner: blazing speed, great short-area burst, confidence, and a nose for the ball. To make a long story short, Smith looks like Dre' Bly all over again, minus (offically speaking) one inch of height. 5'-9" is really small, especially since that's an "official" height. We'll see what happens when he weighs in at the combine, but for now the height gives me pause.  [Steve] and I were wearing our Martin Mayhew/Shack Harris caps (golly, who was who?), trying to draft as we think the Lions will.

One of the justifications for my controversial selection of Josh Freeman in the first round, was that I thought Smith might still be here for us at this pick--and he is. Smith is also a dangerous return man, so even if he doesn't start, or begins his career as a nickel back, he'll be have a chance to make an immediate impact in another desperate need area. Moreover, Smith possesses the attitude--if not the frame--to be excellent in run support. Despite his size, he's very strong and physical . . . I think he needs to go to the vet, because his pythons are sick (apologies to Colin Cowherd).

Of course, I said all that stuff in defense of taking him over the eventual Defensive Rookie of the Year, Clay Matthews, so, y'know, take that with a grain of salt.

If Smith truly is a younger Bly, he’ll compete for time immediately—but his one-year tenure in Denver suggests he’s not anything of the kind.  Then again, the Falcons gave up on Chris Houston after just two years, and he’s working out great so far; perhaps the Lions are just more willing to give cornerbacks the time they need to develop.  Yeah.  Let’s go with that.

A couple of housecleaning notes: first, a recent flurry of excellent comments has gone unreplied to (DrewsLions, Matt, et al.).  I’m working on it.  That, and a recent MGoBlog post has inspired me to go back into my inbox and take care of some flummoxing old emails of my own.  Also, I’m updating the Detroit Lions Jersey Menagerie.  All of that, a Watchtower, and more, coming this week.

The far eyewall approaches; the turbulent winds of Solider Field howl.  Our men in Honolulu Blue will brave them on the way to victory—are you ready to follow them?  I am.  Let’s do this thing.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,sports illustrated,alphonso smith,clay matthews

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Fireside Chat: Preseason Week 2

photo by M. Tremper

I finally got a real, live, sort-of microphone setup going for my Fireside Chat podcast--and on Sunday night at 11:00, several folks charitably tuned in to listen and to chat. Save for a minor oversight that put the kibosh on my intro/outro music, and save for a fantastic interview from SI's Tim Layden, this was the best Fireside Chat yet. If you dig The Lions in Winter, and you don't mind a little interactive Lions-related Web 2.0 sports internet talk/chat radio/stream/cast stuff, give it a listen.

If you like it? Check in again next Sunday at 11:00.

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Gameday Post, 2010 Preseason: Lions at Broncos

With the return of real, live, honest-to-God, sort-of Lions football, we all happily delved into the old familiar cycle of preview, review, and analysis.  We hashed, re-hashed, debated, and rebated all of last Saturday’s happenings.  We sat down at the pigskin feast, and we gorged ourselves like gluttons until we couldn’t have another bite.  We were presented with heaping helping of not-quite Lions football, so we loosened our belts, rolled up our sleeves, and tucked in.  Hours later, we collapsed back onto the couch, fat and sated, and happily drifted off to sleep.  There’s only one problem:  there’s more football.

As the Lions take on the Broncos, they’ll be taking on their second straight 3-4 defense—great, because they’ll play quite a few during the regular season.  Basically, all we want to see is more of the same: Matthew Stafford completing lots of passes, Jahvid Best running like an NFL starter, the defensive line getting lots of push, the secondary not totally horrible, and—most of all—our ones outplaying their ones.  If we get that, again?  Everything else is gravy.

One of the great things about the NFL is that the games take place on Sunday, the day of rest, the day when most people either have nothing going on, or can easily carve out time.  I will be at the wedding of a close friend on Saturday night, so I’ll be watching a replay between then and 11:00 pm Sunday night—the new time of the Fireside Chat podcast!

That's right, I’ve slid back the broadcast time by an hour.  Why?  I realized that everybody’s watching Mad Men then—and when the season starts, that’ll be right in the middle of Sunday Night Football.  11:00, though, should be right when the game stops being interesting.  So, stop by at 11:00 pm EST, and be ready for some almost-really real Lions football analysis!  In the meantime, hit up the comments.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,denver broncos,preseason,mad men

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With Great Potential, Great Expectations

My car, nominally a Pontiac Vibe but functionally a garbage scow, needed to be cleaned out.  I drove to a car wash and began the process, in traditional “open up all the doors and crank the radio” fashion.  Only, instead of 80s metal or 00s hip hop, I cranked Ryan Ermanni on WDFN.  The host was setting the bar for the Lions—but did it in an interesting way.  He not only set a minimum number of wins, seven, he specified when they must win their games: at the beginning of the year.

I flashed back to my last post about expectations for the Lions' 2010 season:

The Detroit Lions are facing a similar crossroads. After the incredible burden of 0-16, the glorious celebration when that burden was cast off, and two straight offseasons of talent addition, the Lions cannot go into this season hoping to win a single game, or even win a game or two more than last. No, the Lions have assembled a talented roster, with legitimate talent on both sides of the ball. The veterans will be expected to play as they have, and the youngsters will be expected to produce up to their potential. A 3-13 season will be a disappointment, not a thrilling sign of what's to come.

In sports, expectations are a huge part of fandom.  There’s no clearer example of this than the most recent Super Bowl: New Orleans set up a massive Super Bowl parade—regardless of whether the Saints won or lost.  Meanwhile, when the Colts returned to Indianapolis, they were met by a crowd of . . . eleven fans.  Even if the Saints hadn’t brought home the Lombardi, they were far and away the best team NOLA had ever seen.  Meanwhile, Peyton and the Colts have set the bar quite high for themselves over the past decade or so—and last season, anything but a championship felt like a disappointment.

There are generational expectations, bars set by great epochs of success, spanning many players, coaches, and executives: the Yankees, the Lakers, the Steelers.  These fan bases simply assume they’ll be contending for titles year after year, and are livid when they don’t.  It’s these kind of expectations that lead Michigan fans to snarl that Michigan State football will never supercede Michigan football, “no matter how many times” in a row MSU beats U of M on the field (and yes, Wolverine fans, I have heard some of you say this).

Next, there are institutional expectations, inspired by dynasties beget by one player, coach, or executive.  A decade or more of perennial title contention caused the bar to be set there, temporarily.  The current Colts are a perfect example of this: they were mostly irrelevant before Peyton Manning, once blessed with Peyton became perennial title contenders, and may slip back into mediocrity when he’s gone.  For what it’s worth, I’d say the Red Wings are between this stage and the one above—though if they won a post-Lidstrom Cup, they’d get a promotion.  Coming down off of this high can be painful.  See: Cowboys fans who think the road to the Super Bowl always runs through Dallas—despite only 3 double-digit-win seasons since the onset of the Dave Campo Era a decade ago.

More fleetingly, there are annual expectations, which is as atomized as this discussion usually gets.  What happened last year, what happened in the offseason, how many “wins are on the schedule,” etc.  Talk right now is about what “you’d be happy with” in terms of number of wins: would five wins be acceptable?  Would you be pleased with six?  Is seven wins a run-naked-through-the-streets number, or would you keep your clothes on until the Lions won more games than they lost?

Ermanni touched on something I always think about when discussing expectations: the week-to-week grind of finding out what this year’s edition is really all about.  Every week, fans’ idea of exactly what their team is varies wildly from week to week.  We might, at the beginning of the year, say that we’d be “happy” with five wins, but when your team is 2-8 out of the gate, can you really be happy—even if they rally to a 3-3 finish?  Ermanni said he just wants the Lions to be in the mix, to be relevant, deep into the season.  That they have to “win ballgames”.

Really, what we're talking about here is a belief that there’s a point.  That it’s worthwhile.  That there’s a reason to tune in.  At the tail end of 2010, there simply wasn’t.  Once Matthew Stafford was shelved for the rest of the year, Lions fans knew that there was zero chance of victory, zero chance that the games would be worth while, and zero reason to watch.  So, Ermanni argued, the Lions have to come out winning.  Even if the end result is 6-10 or 7-9, if they’re at least not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs when Thanksgiving rolls around, Lions fans will be happy.

It’s a solid point; he’s probably more right than wrong.  However, one of the most interesting examples of shifting expectations was the Lions’ 2007 season.  Despite horrific road losses to the Eagles and Redskins, two of the most appalling on-field forfeits I’ve ever seen, the Lions got off to a 6-2 start.  Quoth Mike Furrey after a post-bye-week win over the Buccaneers:

The Lions are 4-2, media! You can kiss my ass!

The Lions kept winning, picking up two more Ws in spectacular fashion, including the last time the Lions kicked anyone’s ass, a legendary 44-7 whupping of the Broncos.  I would be remiss if I did not include this clip, so I will:

. . . brings a tear to my eye every time.

Lions fans were exultant.  The Lions were 6-2!  The playoffs were nearly certainty.  The division crown was well within reach.  Fans even started speculating about playoff byes and home field advantage.  Certainly, these mighty Lions could not be satisfied with a one-and-done run through the postseason!  No, they [embarrassingly premature smugness redacted].

The crash back to Earth was excruciating.  The Lions finished 7-9, and played some of the most God-awful football anyone has ever seen along the way.  The nine-turnover, nineteen-penalty 21-31 turd at Arizona bobs up to the top of the Honolulu Blue Port-O-John liquid that marinates the worst games ever.  Look at the weather: “72 degrees, no wind.”  The two teams combined to lose six fumbles.  How does that even happen?  As Greg Eno put it over at Out of Bounds:

OK, Mike. Ready? The Lions are 7-8! You can plant one between my back pockets, too.

So, did Lions fans walk away happy?  Were we pleased or content with seven wins?  Absolutely not—even though, had we been offered a guaranteed 7-win season at the outset, we’d probably have taken it.  I think the same applies this season: yes, we’d take seven wins; Hell, we’d be giddy!  And yes, there’s no doubt, winning a few of the first several, or several of the first eight, games would go a long way towards rejuvenating the fan base.  Hitting the halfway point of the season at 4-4 would do wonders for attendance, for spirit, for—yes—the blue flame.  But, who among us is ready for a 1-7 finish?  Who here wants to be eager to come home from church and mow the lawn because the Lions will be on?  Not I.

Yes, I’d like to avoid a three- or four-game losing streak to start the season.  Yes, I’d love for everyone to get amped for Lions football right out of the gate.  But, saying that you want the Lions to blow all their wins up front, because winning them in the back half “doesn’t matter?”  I can’t agree.  The only thing crueler than another double-digit-loss season would be to get a sniff of victory, only to get our faces pushed back into the garbage.

At the car wash.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,denver broncos,philadelphia eagles,washington redskins,shaun rogers,mike furrey

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Ernie Sims to the Eagles, Tony Scheffler to the Lions

While I was grabbing some lunch, news broke: Martin Mayhew had looked in the Wheeler Dealer and pulled himself off another swap—this time, trading Ernie Sims to the Eagles, a 5th-rounder from the Eagles to the Broncos, and TE Tony Scheffler from the Broncos to the Lions.  The Lions also got yet another seventh-round pick, bringing the total up to four.

I haven’t been shy about reminding everyone that way back in January, I wrote an article for Mlive.com, proclaiming that Martin Mayhew must trade Sims while he still has value.  My first proposed trade destination was Philadelphia, and I bugged poor Adam Caplan from Scout.com about that idea for weeks, because the fit just made too much sense.  I’ve also been obnoxious in pointing out that I pointed out that the retirement of Casey FitzSimmons left an empty niche in the Lions’ offense.

My apologies to all of you for the insufferable self-promoting.  I have no access to “insider” info; everything you read is coming from my own synthesis of what’s out there.  When I stumble upon an acorn, as I rarely do, I enjoy planting it, watching it grow into a mighty oak, then hanging my hat upon it.  My apologies if I've annoyed you; I rarely indulge in such own-horn-tooting, and I’m done now.

First impressions?  This is practically identical to the Cory Redding-for-Julian Peterson trade.  These two players, Sims and Scheffler, both had a foot out the door in their original cities.  Neither were fits for their current systems, both had plenty of good football years left, and both are entering a contract year.

For me, it's a bittersweet goodbye to Sims.  Check out my post from roughly this time last year, featuring a battered alt-color Ernie Sims jersey and dangerous levels of optimism:

Ernie Sims is primed to be an incredible force in 2009.

Coming out of Florida State, I really thought that Sims would be what I later thought Aaron Curry could be: the explosive, badass linebacker who turns around the defense and the team.  That the Lions would draft a chiseled little wrecking ball of an OLB, more noteworthy for his performance on tape than his freakish size or speed?  Surely, I figured, it must be a harbinger of glory!

Prior to last season, I thought the Lions’ new scheme, and all of its OLB blitzing, would allow Sims to shut his brain off and unleash his inner Kraken.  Unfortunately, the Lions’ defensive line wasn’t disruptive enough to allow Sims to safely ignore his lanes—and double-unfortunately, Sims shut his brain off anyway.

He still has all the talent to be a surpassing WLB if used properly.  Philly’s hyperaggressive 4-3 is exactly the right kind of system, and it’s a lot closer to being fully realized than the Lions’ own implementation of a similar system.  I wish Sims all the best, of course; I’m “glad” I never sank the cash into that jersey, but I’m sad I never repped him while he was here.  For a little while, he was the only player really worth cheering for.

Tony Scheffler, for his part, is like Casey FitzSimmons, only up an order of magnitude.  Midwestern football state?  Instead of Montana, Michigan.  Instead of Caroll College, Western Michigan.  Instead of an undrafted free agent, a 2nd-round pick.  Instead of a 23-catch, 160-yard, 2-TD rookie season, an 18-catch, 286-yard, 4-TD rookie season.  Instead of a six more years that barely matched his rookie totals combined, three more years where he’s averaged double the catches and yards over that initial effort.

Scheffler really doesn't have much place in Denver's offense, and he had little-to-no chemistry with efficient-but-weak-armed Kyle Orton.  Now, he’ll again play with the kind of rocket-armed quarterback who threw him 107 passes, for 1,480 yards & 12 TDs, in his first three NFL seasons.

Many are pointing to this trade as proof that Brandon Pettigrew’s recovery is going poorly, but I see them as completely different players.  Pettigrew is a third tackle with cotton hands; a powerful inline blocker who’s quick enough to get open and make a crucial third-down catch.  However, he’s not a field-stretcher, a walking mismatch like Gates or Clark.  He’s not going to blow past an OLB  on a skinny post, catch it in stride, smoke both safeties and take it to the house; that’s just not his skill set.

With Fitz gone, the Lions had four blocking TEs, with a spectrum of hands from “great” to “nonexistent”.  Scheffler gives them that dangerous 2-TE combination that Linehan loves: he can again use a 2-WR, 2-TE, I-formation set as a base for five-option pass plays.  It’s all about establishing the power running game, and then killing them through the air . . . and, Pettigrew or no, Tony Scheffler gives them that ability.

The best part of all of it, though, is what the Michigan native, Scheffler, told the Denver Post when they called him:

“Restore the Roar!”

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,denver broncos,tony scheffler,ernie sims,philadelphia eagles

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