Lions vs. Jets: A Visual Miscellany

Here are some more cool pictures from the game on Sunday that I didn’t work into the Three Cups Deep.

Walking to the stadium.  Here’s where I initially spotted the tremendous XXXXXXXXXXL Germane Crowell home authentic . . . but check my man over on the right.  Is that a Kelvin Pritchett away replica tucked into belted Wranglers?  With a Lions hardhat?  Awesome.  Moving on from the “vintage” rack, we have a couple nice selections from the “so fresh and so clean” department:

That Stafford away authentic looks gorgeous.  The Suh home authentic looks . . . forgeous.  Look at the number patches . . . not quite right (compare the “9” in the Suh to the “9” in the Stafford).  Also, the sleeves are straight-cut, not banded like authentics.  Honestly, I didn’t spot this until afterwards, though—the Chinese knock-off stuff is getting better and better.

Megatron away authentic.  Honolulu Blue on white just looks so good.  Excellent choice, sir.

“No pictures, please.”  Note the knitted Lion hat.

My son handing his first Lions ticket to his first Lions ticket-taker to enter Ford Field to see his first Lions game.  Sniffle.  Ticket-taker, please don’t sue me for likeness rights.  TIA.

To quote a wise and learned scholar (Xzibit), “This is what happens when determination meets a broke-assed motherf****er.”  Only a matter of time before my man turns that “3” into a “4” and that “SMITH” into a “BEST.”  Oh, and check out David Sloan at the front of the line!  He was Dallas Clark before it was cool to be Dallas Clark, supposing Peyton Manning were Scott Mitchell and Dallas Clark had knees made of Velcro.

Indoor fireworks!  Excellent.  I think this was Stafford’s introduction but I’m not positive.

Somehow I set “blur” to “ON” at some point, but here’s my little boy watching the Jets fans congregate, post-game.  This part was hard.  Note his little Lion tail, drooping.

Like I said . . . this part was hard.

It’s cool, though, because we got in the line to run onto the field and score a touchdown.  the looooooooooong line.

Okay, this is terrible.  This kid is wearing a “wolverinehead,” like a cheesehead, except it’s a wolverine snout.  Dad is wearing a U of M cap.  That would all be fine, I guess, except little dude is rocking a LaDanian Tomlinson Chargers jersey.  Look, neither the Michigan Wolverines, nor the San Diego Chargers, were playing in that game.  LaDanian Tomlinson was in the game, but playing against the team they came to root for.  I was so grumped out by this compound attire foul, the out-of-place Zetterberg didn’t even faze me.

Tough to see, but that sign says “I HATE EVERYTHING ABOUT NEW YORK,” with  ‘No Smoking Sign’ circles with lines through them drawn around every major New York City sports franchise’s logo.  I was so impressed with the craftsmanship, and the seething hatred, I almost took it home.

He hit the Ford Field turf running.

They gave every kid a miniball, and then lined ‘em up on the 30-yard line.  They ran ‘em in batches of howevermany.  Chaos.

After scoring his touchdown, he looked up at the goalposts, reared back, and threw his miniball over the crossbar . . . and over my head.  It bounced off the rail on top of the wall—inches from actually going in the stands.

“Dad, I told you they were gonna let me on the field.  I told you I was gonna need my cleats.”  I get a certain perverse joy out of being a Stupid Old Dad.

On the way out, a major jersey win: a little dude rocking a Vanden Bosch home.  I did not see much jersey love for KVB, but that kid brought it.  Well done.

. . . and good night Lions everywhere.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,ford field,new york jets

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watchtower Review: Lions vs. Jets

Well, last week’s Watchtower had an obvious error:

My instincts tell me that a team the Packers shut out at home won’t put up 24-27 against this defense in front of a sold-out Ford Field. Despite all the ways I could be proven wrong, I’m going to go with the data and my gut. The most likely outcome of the game is a 17-13 Lions win.

Durr Sharks?

Durr Sharks.

On the positive side, this is only the second game I’ve been wrong enough on to actually get the winner incorrect.  On the negative side, damn.  I’ll admit, I did not think Sanchez had that just-before-halftime bomb in him.  Not only did it unquestionably deflate the crowd, and reverse the tide of momentum as they went into the lockers, it also accounted for a huge percentage of the Jets’ offense that day.  That pass was the difference between 336 yards passing and 262 yards passing.  It was the difference between 8.62 YpA and 6.89 YpA.  It was the difference between 23 points and 16 points.  It was the difference in the game.

If we assume that the 2004-2005 Chargers provide a representative sample of Brian Schottenheimer’s schematic and playcalling tendencies, the Jets’s offense will either meet—or vastly underperform—expectations against Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3 defense, depending on which phase of the offense the Lions attack. Given the recent success of the Lions’ pass rush and secondary, I expect the Lions to attack the pass—and therefore, I project the Jets to score 10-13 points. Unfortunately, because we’re working off of a possibly fallacious assumption—the 2004-2005 Chargers’s offense being interchangeable with the 2010 Jets—I have very low confidence in this projection. If there were no systemic advantage or disavantage, the expectation for the Jets’ offense against the Lions’ defense would be 24-27 points.

Okay so.  The assumption has been proven fallacious.  [[ Martyball == Brianball ]] returns false.  Looks like either there’s no systemic advantage or disadvantage for Gunther against Brian Schottenheimer, or that one lapse in coverage threw everything out of whack.  Either way, this half gets a grade of FAIL.

With no systemic advantage or disadvantage, expectations for the Lions’ offense versus the Jets’ defense would be set at 17-21 points. However, if we apply this perceived disadvantage when facing Rex Ryan defenses, I project the Lions will score 15-17 points. I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

This is not a big surprise; the only data point for Linehan against Ryan was the 2007 Rams, after they’d lost Steven Jackson and anyone else who had any shot of being a productive offensive football player.  The only reasons I considered a possible advantage in effect were: A) how mediocre the Ravens’ defense was that season, and B) how thoroughly said defense scoured the Earth clean of Gus Frerotte on that day.

Lessons Learned:

Seems like I have to keep learning this one, but: if you have very low confidence in your analysis because of sample size or mitigating factors, do not roll with it anyway because it sounds right.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york jets,rex ryan,brian schottenheimer,jim schwartz,scott linehan,gunther cunningham

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Fireside Chat: Lions vs. Jets

Here’s this week’s Fireside Chat.  It isn’t for the faint of heart.

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Lions vs. Jets Gameday Post: A New Beginning

Today, I take my four-year-old son to his first Lions game.  He’s been talking about it for weeks, and he’s been talking about it nonstop for days.  He’s been waking up every morning hoping it’s Sunday, and bitterly disappointed every morning except this one.  He’s all decked out in gear, as we all are, and he’s bouncing off the walls with excitement.  I even had to talk him out of wearing his cleats!

He’s nowhere near as excited as I am.

This is an enormous game for us as fans, but it’s also a game of incredible import to the franchise.  For the first time in years, the Lions are going to have a crack at a legitimate Super Bowl contender—and a legitimate chance to win.  Depending on who you ask, the Jets are favored by something more than a field goal but less than a touchdown.  I’m not the only person to pick the Lions to win, either—Sterling Sharpe on NFL Network’s NFL Playbook did the same.

If the Lions win, it'll be their biggest in years . . . maybe since before Millen.  If they lose, it’ll break my little boy’s heart, no matter how hard I prepare him for it.  Either way, today will be a landmark in franchise history, a day when we find out exactly how far the Lions have come.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york jets

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Jets

The Jets are coming off of an embarrassing loss at home.  The Lions are coming off of an ugly victory at home.  The Jets are a national media darling, a preseason Super Bowl contender coming off an improbable run to the AFC Championship.  The Lions are a national media whipping boy; if they’re ever mentioned, it’s as a punchline.  The 5-2 Jets are a game behind the Patriots in the AFC East, and need a win to keep pace.  The 2-5 Lions are effectively three games behind the Packers and Bears, likelyplaying for nothing more than pride.

Brian Schottenheimer vs. Gunther Cunningham

Gil	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
SDC	KCC	3rd	27.9	7.46	4.16	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	34	10.22	0	4.10	1-0	1-7
SDC	KCC	3rd	27.9	7.46	4.16	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	24	7.48	1	4.76	4-1	2-17
SDC	KCC	5th	26.1	6.65	4.46	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	28	8.07	1	3.77	2-1	0-0
SDC	KCC	5th	26.1	6.65	4.46	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	7	4.88	1	4.00	1-1	1-8
NYJ	DET	12th	22.7	5.95	4.84	23rd	22.4	7.13	4.79

In prior Watchtowers, I’ve struggled sometimes to distinguish between a coordinator and their mentor.  Bears DC Rod Marinelli is a slavish disciple of Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2; schematically, Marinelli and Kiffin are interchangeable.  I can then fairly translate Scott Linehan’s success against one to his success against the other.  On the other end of the spectrum, Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians learned under everyone from Ken Whisenhunt to Butch Davis to Bear Bryant (!).  With Brian Schottenheimer, there’s an obvious mentor: his father and longtime boss, Marty.  However, the obvious avatar is a false one.

Brian Schottenheimer didn't learn offense by studying at his father’s knee; didn’t kneel before the altar of the run-first offense they call Martyball.  No, Brian Schottenheimer learned offense by playing for Steve Spurrier.  According to an excellent piece by Thomas George at NFL.com, Schottenheimer displayed an astonishing level of self-awareness for a college kid.  After playing quarterback at Kansas for a year, he realized he’d never play in the pros—so he transferred to Florida, with the intention of becoming a three-time All-American clipboard holder.

Schottenheimer then worked as an assistant under Dick Vermeil in St. Louis, Marty at Kansas City, Paul Pasqualoni at Syracuse, and Paul Hackett at USC.  Finally, he got his first full-fledged quarterbacks coach gig, as part of Marty’s Redskins staff.  Unfortunately, it lasted only one year—when Marty was then broomed to make way for . . . Steve Spurrier.  If that’s not ironic enough for you, that second stop—“Marty at Kansas City?”  Yeah, guess who was standing on the sidelines with him, running the defense?  None other than Gunther Cunningham.  I’m sure these men know each other very well, personally and professionally.

Schotty the Younger followed his father to San Diego, where for four seasons he served as quarterbacks coach.  He mentored both Drew Brees and Philip Rivers there, earning him a reputation as a QB groomer.  For 2006, new Jets coach Eric Mangini hired Brian to his first offensive coordinatorship; it’s here where I’d prefer start Brian’s track record as a schemer and playcaller.

Unfortunately, Gunther Cunningham hasn’t faced Brian Schottenheimer since then.  I thought about using data from Spurrier’s time in the NFL, but when I looked at the schemes and philosophies of the Jets offense and Spurrier’s, I realized that the end result is closer to Martyball than Fun n’ Gun—the Jets have almost perfect 50/50 run-pass balance, and they’re much better at running than passing.  So, with caveats in place, we go to work:

In 2004, the Chargers had a juggernaut of an offense.  With Drew Brees having his breakout year (3,159 yards, 27 TDs, 7 INTs), and a 25-year-old LaDanian Tomlinson rolling everybody, San Diego was the 3rd-most potent offense in the NFL (27.9 ppg).  Gunther’s Kansas City Chiefs (under Dick Vermeil, another Brian S. mentor) were a miserable 29th, allowing 27.2 points per game.  It went about as you’d expect, with San Diego scoring 34 points, averaging 10.22 yards per attempt, and gaining 4.10 yards per carry.

But Gunther had some tricks up his sleeve for his old boss in the second meeting.  This time, he essentially surrendered the run (4.78 YpC), and attacked the pass, forcing 2 sacks, 4 fumbles, and an interception, lowering YpA to 7.48, and holding the San Diego offense to just 24 points.  It’s not often that the 3rd-ranked offense faces the 29th-ranked defense and scores less than its average for the year . . .

In 2005, the gap between the two units was much smaller.  The Chargers were the 5th-best offense, scoring 26.1 PpG.  The Chiefs’ D was vastly improved: ranked 16th, allowing 20.3 PpG—a full touchdown per game less than the year before.  The results of the first matchup, however, were more like the the first meeting in 2004: 28 points for the Chargers.  They gained 341 yards through the air at a 8.07 YpA clip—though Tomlinson’s 17-for-69 effort dragged the Chargers down to a meager 3.77 team YpC.  Again, these results exactly meet expectations when the 5th-ranked offense faces the 16th-ranked defense: the O does a little bit better than usual.

In the second matchup, however, Cuther returned to his prior strategy: attack the pass.  Brees completed just 18-of-33 passes (54.5%), for a meager 161 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT.  He was sacked once (by Jared Allen), and receiver Eric Parker lost a fumble.  Holding the passing attack to just 4.88 YpA, the vaunted Chargers’ offense scored only seven points.

From this data, the inescapable conclusion is that regardless of talent level, Marty Schottenheimer’s run-heavy offenses meet expectations against Gunther Cunningham’s defense—when the passing game is exceptionally effective.  Marty Schottenheimer offenses perform profoundly below expectations against Gunther Cunningham defenses when the passing game is ineffective.

In 2010, Brian Schottenheimer’s Jets offense is ranked 12th in the NFL, scoring 22.7 points per game.  The Lions’ defense is ranked 23rd, allowing 22.4 PpG.  The Jets have only mustered 5.95 YpA—but their running game, featuring LaDanian Tomlinson (!), is bowling people over to the tune of 4.84 YpC.  Yes, on the average.  Yes, for the whole season.  Meanwhile, the Lions are allowing 4.79 YpC—doubtlessly the Jets will be able to run.  They may be able to pass, too, considering the Lions 7.13 allowed YpA.

If we assume that the 2004-2005 Chargers provide a representative sample of Brian Schottenheimer’s schematic and playcalling tendencies, the Jets’s offense will either meet—or vastly underperform—expectations against Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3 defense, depending on which phase of the offense the Lions attack.  Given the recent success of the Lions’ pass rush and secondary, I expect the Lions to attack the pass—and therefore, I project the Jets to score 10-13 points.  Unfortunately, because we’re working off of a possibly fallacious assumption—the 2004-2005 Chargers’s offense being interchangeable with the 2010 Jets—I have very low confidence in this projection.  If there were no systemic advantage or disavantage, the expectation for the Jets’ offense against the Lions’ defense would be 24-27 points.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Obviously, there’s a lot of ifs, ands, and buts in the above paragraph—more than I usually allow myself.  But seeing what the Packers did to the Jets’ offense on Sunday, and knowing the way the Lions’ defensive line is playing, and knowing what Gunther can do against offenses he knows well, I have to believe that they go after Sanchez hard.  The success he had against Marty and Brian’s Chargers offenses—which were much better than this Jets unit—leads me to believe that’s the correct ballpark for the Jets’ offensive production.  Then again, if Tomlinson and/or Greene can really get rolling, perhaps the Lions’ defense can’t get off the field on third down, and the baseline expectations will be what goes down.  I really don’t see anything in between; either I’m right and the Jets are held to less than two TDs, or I’m wrong and the Jets score 24 or more.

Scott Linehan vs. Rex Ryan

Lin	Few	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
STL	BAL	28th	16.4	5.63	3.78	22nd	24.0	7.26	2.84	3	5.80	5	2.48	1-1	4-11
DET	NYJ	6th	25.2	5.95	3.63	2nd	15.7	6.17	3.43

There’s only one data point for this matchup, and it’s profoundly depressing.  Linehan faced off against Rex Ryan in 2007—without Steven Jackson.  Linehan’s 28th-ranked offense was scraping together 16.4 PpG; even Ryan’s worse-than-usual 2007 unit was way, way more than it could handle.  Despite being ranked only 22nd itself, and allowing a rather healthy 24.0 PpG, the Ravens’ unit stomped the Rams into the ground.  They held a committee of Travis Minor, Brian Leonard, and Antonio Pittman to just 2.48 YpC.  They allowed only 5.48 YpA, sacked Gus Frerotte four times and intercepted him five times.

Given the paucity of data, I'm loathe to conclude anything, but that’s just too strong of an effect.  There’s no way the 22nd-ranked defense should dominate the 28th-ranked defense like that, unless there’s a schematic advantage.  What I’m saying here is, the Rams were really, really, really bad—but not that bad.  Therefore, I’m going to conclude that given lesser talent, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense is disproportionately disrupted by Rex Ryan’s hyperaggressive 3-4 defense.   Sacks and interceptions profoundly depress scoring output.  The effect is unknown with greater or equal talent.

The 2010 Lions are the 6th-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging a robust 25.2 points per game.  Amazingly, they’re doing it while averaging a mediocre 5.95 YpA, and less-than-mediocre 3.63 YpC.  Meanwhile, the Jets are the #2 defense in the NFL, allowing just 15.7 points per game, 6.17 YpA, and 3.43 YpC.  With no systemic advantage or disadvantage, expectations for the Lions’ offense versus the Jets’ defense would be set at 17-21 points.  However, if we apply this perceived disadvantage when facing Rex Ryan defenses, I project the Lions will score 15-17 points.  I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Thanks to just the one data point, this is a pretty shaky conclusion.  Further, it’s tough to tell just how bad the 2007 Rams were—that Ravens game was arguably the lowest point of their entire year, and some initial decent performances brought up their yearly average.  Nevertheless, those Rams took an epic pounding; there’s a very real chance that Ryan fools Stafford with some looks, and the Jets get two, three, four, or more picks.  If Stafford or Best step up and have a massive day, the Lions might be able to put more than what I’ve projected on the table—but I don’t expect that.  These numbers are likely realistic.

Conclusion:

The data that tells me Gunther knows how to stop his former boss (and his son, a former co-worker).  My instincts tell me that a team the Packers shut out at home won’t put up 24-27 against this defense in front of a sold-out Ford Field.  Despite all the ways I could be proven wrong, I’m going to go with the data and my gut.  The most likely outcome of the game is a 17-13  Lions win.  As a corrollary, I have a sneaking suspicion that a special teams or defensive touchdown may either widen the gap for the Lions, or flip the script in the Jets’ favor.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york jets,rex ryan,brian schottenheimer,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan,matthew stafford,mark sanchez

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Tinderbox: Sellout!

It looks like Operation Sellout was a huge success—the Lions have announced they’ve already sold out Sunday’s game against the Jets, without the help of an extension!  Admittedly, I have no idea how many tickets were snapped up by TLiW readers who weren’t going anyway—but if even one of you out there was inspired to purchase tickets by yesterday’s post, I deeply, deeply thank you.  I cannot wait for Sunday!

If you missed The Knee Jerks on Monday night, Greg and Big Al were kind enough to have me on as a guest!  I talked about the Lions, what inspired me to start the blog, and we also went a little bit meta about blogging, online sports reporting, and where people are going to get their sports news.  I had a ton of fun—and as always, wish I had more time!  Greg, if you don’t recall, kicked off Barry Week with his awesome contribution.

Finally, crucial thank Big Al, Zac at the Sidelion Report, and Phil at Mlive.com for helping spread the word about Operation Sellout.  I can’t say how proud I am of this fanbase that they put their money where their heart is.  The world is going to get its best look yet at just how big the bonfire’s gotten!

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york jets

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Lions vs. Jets: Operation Sellout

As I’ve said before, I don’t get the chance to go to many games.  For starters, I live in Lansing, not Detroit; it’s a just-too-far-to-be-convenient 90-minute drive to the stadium.  For seconds, I lead the praise band at my church—making it to Detroit in time for a 1:00 p.m. game means I either have to take the day off, or duck out entirely.  For thirds, I have three young children—taking a family of five to a game means a bare minimum of $220 just to walk in the door.  Add gas money there and back, parking, food before, during, and after and . . . well, it takes more than a just an exhortive Tweet from Jim Schwartz to get me to Ford Field.

One of the best things about having small children, though, is that parents become grandparents.  On Sunday, I will be the beneficiary of some of the attendant spoiling; part of a three-generation Boys’ Day Out.  We’ll be watching the Lions play battle the Jets in living color—and we want you to join us.

The Lions are on the verge of something they haven’t been since Barry left: being nationally interesting.  With surprisingly strong showings against Philadelphia, New York, and DC in the books, plus this week’s New York game, a visit to Dallas, and a Thanksgiving Day game against Boston yet to come . . . the Lions are touring the nation’s biggest sports media cities, and showing them one by one we aren’t who you thought we were.

Check out this gem of a video preview from the New York Daily News immediately prior to the Giants game—and get ready to either seethe with red-hot anger, or bust a gut laughing at how foolish this guy now sounds.  I’m ready for talking heads like that to get words like that crammed down their throat.  I’m ready for the national media to be grabbed by the lapels and shaken awake, clued in to what’s happening in Detroit.  I’m ready for these Lions to announce their arrival on the NFL scene with a roar.  We want to roar with them—and we want you to join us.

Some of the same New York guys who pooh-poohed the Lions’ arrival into Your Company Name Here Stadium a few weeks ago will be flying into Detroit, while trying vainly to conceal their contempt.  All of the same national-media types who’ve expelled gallons of breath and ink on Donovan McNabb’s benching, while ignoring the defense that forced it, will have one eye on the monitor displaying this game.  Every NFL fan who can’t get enough of Rex Ryan, the Sanchize, and Revis Island will be tuning in to see the Jets take out their just-got-shut-out frustrations on the Lions.  I want the Lions to teach them all a lesson while we’re there to cheer them on—and we want you to join us.

I want Ford Field to be filled to the rafters with fans ready to roar.  I want to show the world exactly what kind of fans we are—and the Lions to show the world exactly what kind of team they are.  I want the blue bonfire to wax and surge and roar high and tall and bright; a great pillar of flame to be seen a thousand miles away.  I want the Lions to beat the Jets at their own game, pounding the quarterback into submission, feeding off the crowd, resonating with power and strength and energy that’s saturating the air they’re sharing with us.  We’re going to radiate every last watt we’ve got on Sunday, powering the players as much as we can—and we want you to join us.

As I said, I understand well the real-world limitations that face Lions fans.  I understand well how hard it can be to get everything in place to attend a game live.  But do me a favor—if you can attend a game, but were waiting for just the right game, or just the right time?  If you were waiting for them to prove to you they could win before you invested fiscally as you already do emotionally?  Don’t shy away from competition.  Don’t abandon the team when they need you the most.  Don’t sigh when your local Fox affiliate flips over to infomercials because the game’s blacked out again.  Make the call.   Hit the Web.  Smash the piggy bank.  Let’s show the world just how bright this fire roars.

Who’s with me?

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york jets

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