Lions at Ravens Preview: a Finally, a Real Fake Game

My apologies to the Cleveland Browns, but even by Great Lakes Classic standards last week was a snoozer: little anticipation, little of the stars doing their thing, little to get excited about. What little of Stafford & Co. we got to see was uninspiring. The promising rushing improvements came mostly with backups, mostly against backups, and the two units most in question (offensive line, back seven) failed to answer any questions.

This second game presents the first real test: the vaunted Baltimore Ravens defense, a hostile crowd, an offense actually capable of scoring points, more reps for the starters and less Kellen Moore/Seneca Wallace.

Also, as John Kreger of CBSSports.com Tweeted, the Lions are gameplanning more for the Ravens; Baltimore is Schwartz's home and he'll want to put up a "good show."

A “good show” will consist of:

• Matthew Stafford looking sharp, and being on the same page with his receivers.
• More consistent pass protection from Jeff Backus; continued solid run blocking from the interior line.
• Titus Young making an impact.
• Kevin Smith, Keiland Williams and Joique Bell running with a high success rate; don't need home runs as much as solid gains on 1st-and-long and 3rd-and-short.
• At least one touchdown by the starting offense against the starting Ravens defense.
• The interior pass rush making an impact.
• Continued success by the exterior pass rush.
• A MUCH improved showing by the linebackers in coverage.
• Bill Bentley and Jacob Lacey keeping Anquan Boldin out of the end zone and Torrey Smith from hauling in a 30-plus-yard reception.
• A MUCH improved showing by the safties, in coverage and in tackling.

Okay, maybe asking for all that is too much. So I'll just ask for this:

Please, Lions, take this one seriously. Play like you want to play. Play like you want to play well. Play like you want to win.

Jim Schwartz told Dave Birkett of the Freep the same thing:

"Hopefully we play a lot better," he said Wednesday. "We need to play a lot better. We need to play with a little more sense of urgency."

It's not that I want the Lions to pull out the schematic stops, or run the starters all the way to halftime. To the contrary: I want to keep the best stuff under wraps and the starters injury-free. But I want the guys that are fighting for starting—or roster—spots to fight. I want the guys who think they’ve got a role locked up to show us why. I want the Lions to make the most of every rep they get.

That's what the Patriots' “Next Man Up” philosophy has always been about: no matter what letters are arranged on the back of any Patriot’s jersey, that player is supposed to do his job just like the man before him did. Let us not forget who our own Baltimorian, the Grandmaster himself, studied under: Patriot head coach Bill Belichick.

Last week, the Lions mostly looked to be sleepwalking, waiting for their proven awesomeness to win out over an opponent who wanted desperately to prove that they can play. The reality is, these 2012 Lions haven’t proven anything. If they want to wear getting whooped in last year’s Wild Card game like a badge of honor, they’re in deep trouble.

Tonight, I want to see two playoff teams smack each other in the mouth for four quarters, regardless of whether it's the first-stringers or the fourth-stringers on the field.

Read more...

Three Cups Deep: this one hurts

In yesterday’s gameday post, I said:

Today is either the day the Lions roar back to respectability--or the day the scavengers pick their bones clean.

Well, we have our answer.

I actually fell asleep in the second half.  What was the point?  Ray Rice was running at will, the Lions couldn’t score to save their lives, and—against all rational thought—Daunte Culpepper played until the bitter end.

It beggars belief: he completed only 16 of his 34 passes, for only 135 yards, no touchdowns, and two interceptions.  It was a long, miserable day by any measure.  What doesn't show in those numbers, however, is this play:

3-4-BAL 44
(13:41) (Shotgun) 11-D.Culpepper FUMBLES (Aborted) at DET 50, and recovers at DET 50. 11-D.Culpepper to DET 50 for no gain (26-D.Landry).

That play emobdies everything I always scream about with Culpepper.  It’s the second quarter.  The Lions are down by just three points, having already missed a field goal.  After driving into Baltimore territory, two straight three-yard runs by Kevin Smith put the Lions in a 3rd-and-4 situation. 

This is what they call keeping your offense “on schedule”; giving the offense a great chance to convert on third down.  It’s what good offenses do, and it’s an ability Lions offenses have lacked since . . well, ever.  With this favorable situation, Linehan went to his “third and short” playbook, and pulled out a play from a shotgun, multi-WR set—doubtlessly looking to give Culpepper several close, easy targets.  If the Lions convert, they’re at Baltimore’s 40, or closer, with a new set of downs.  Instead,  Raiola’s shotgun snap hits Culpepper in the hands, and he drops it.

It’ll show up on the stat sheet as a fumble, yes—but not a “lost” fumble, and certainly not as a “an inexcusable f-up that absolutely killed his team’s chances to win”, which is what it was.  Culpepper’s entire career—yes, even when he was almost MVP or whatever—has been afflicted with this plague: an incredible knack for making horrible plays at the worst possible times.

After a punt, and two plays, Derrick Mason took a pair of brutal hits, ran to the end zone, and opened the floodgates.  While this was arguably the result of the Lions’ DBs going for big hits instead of tackling, I’d submit that Mason is on a two-man list of Receivers Tough Enough To Take That Hit and Keep Standing.  Really, at that point, the defense had still done remarkably well.

For all the press about '”RAVENS DESTROY LIONS IN LAUGHABLE BLOWOUT”, with three minutes left in the first half, the Lions were down by only two score.  They had the ball on their own 28, and had just begun a drive that could bring it to a 1-TD deficit.  Then . . .

Culpepper sack.

Culpepper INT.

Ravens drive and field goal.

Halftime.

28 unanswered points.

I hope Schwartz isn’t just blowing smoke when he called this performance was “unacceptable”, because that’s exactly what it was.  The defense simply rolled over.  After standing tall against one of the better rushing offenses in football last week, the Lions allowed 308 yards rushing on 40 attempts; 7.7 YpC.

Meanwhile, the offense kept pounding its head against the wall . . . hoping, I guess that the wall would break?  Granted, conditions were absolutely wretched out there—at one point, it appeared to be a downpour of freezing rain—but it seemed like there was an impenetrable forcefield at the Ravens’ 30-yard line.  Stafford can’t come back soon enough.

Speaking of which, is there anyone who still thinks that Daunte gives the Lions the "best chance to win"?  Even if he did, would it matter?  Drew Stanton again was robbed of any chance to prove himself—why?  We know Culpepper won’t be back here next year.  Kevin Smith blew out his ACL, and possibly ruined his 2010 campaign—why?  To what end?  What on earth were he and Daunte still doing out there?

Let’s face it: the 2009 season is now over.  There’s no point in veterans veterans over youth if said veterans aren’t part of the future plans.  Believe you me, there are some players on this team whose walking papers were filled out yesterday afternoon; I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those papers were served at some point this week.

The Lions need to move on from this loss, and this season, as quickly as possible: cut the deadwood, sign some practice squadders, and get on with the business of Maybe Next Year.

Read more...

Gameday Discussion: Lions at Ravens

It’s fitting that the Lions play the Ravens today.  In various cultures, ravens have been feared as omens of doom, or the manifestation of damned souls.  With their jet-black plumage and beak, and their taste for the flesh of dead animals, it’s easy to see how the legends began.

At 2-10, the Lions certainly look more like carrion than kings of the jungle. However, if they can beat back the Ravens, the Lions will close out their last three games with two more winnable ones--and a decent shot at a 4- or 5-win season.  Today is either the day the Lions roar back to respectability--or the day the scavengers pick their bones clean.

Today is momentous for this site as well; the early birds (heh) amongst you may have already noticed.  Mlive.com sports producer Phil Zaroo has asked me to contribute to his Lions blog, The Highlight Reel.  It was an honor to be asked, and my pleasure to agree!  This week’s piece is already up.  Please, check it out, and let me know what you think.

Read more...

the Lions Congregation: WHA? No MO? Edition

It’s time once again for The Lions Congregation, a roundtable discussion of the most devout Lions scribes.  This week’s edition included a question which got answered for us:

• The Mo Williams pickup, yea, meh, or nea?
• The Ravens offense leaves a lot to be desired. Is there any way our defense can contain their offense?
• What’s your projection for Ravens – Lions?

Please, visit the Church of Schwartz to read, and be enlightened!

Read more...

the watchtower: lions at Ravens

At first glance, last week’s edition of the Watchtower appeared to be nearly perfect:

I'm going to stick with the data: 20-24 points for the Bengals, and 7-9 points for the Lions.

However, besides the Lions getting a late TD to exceed my expectations, 7 of the Bengals’ 23 points came on a defensive TD.  The results of the offense/defense interactions, then, was a very narrow 17-13 margin for the Bengals.

I project 20-24 points, 8.0-8.5 YpA, and 4.25-4.5 YpC. I have extremely high confidence in this projection.

Oops.  The Lions' defense came up big, holding the Bengals to just 6.97 YpA, and--I advise sitting down--2.70 YpC.  Except for the play that was arguably the dagger in the Lions’ heart, the Lions completely contained one of the most physically talented QB/WR combos in the NFL.  With 44 rushing plays, that 2.70 YpC number is no fluke, either.  Sammie Hill was huge in this game, literally and figuratively.  All in all, the defense stepped up to a level I didn’t think they were quite capable of.

Of course, the skeptic in me points out that the Bengals have been notorious for playing to their level of competition this year, that Bengals’ OC Bob Bratkowski has been criticized for his conservative playcalling, and that the 16 penalties called in the game further disrupted rhythm, timing, and momentum—all of which played right into the Lions’ hands.  But hey, it worked.  If they can play as well next week in Baltimore as they played this week, they’ll again be competitive.  Speaking of which . . .

Cam Cameron vs. Gunther Cunningham

Cam	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
SDC	KCC	3rd	27.9	7.46	4.16	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	34	10.12	0	4.10	1-7
SDC	KCC	3rd	27.9	7.46	4.16	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	24	7.48	1	4.76	2-17
SDC	KCC	5th	26.1	6.64	4.46	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	28	7.75	1	3.77	0-0
SDC	KCC	5th	26.1	6.64	4.46	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	7	4.88	1	4.00	1-8
BAL	DET	10th	23.4	6.95	4.25	32nd	30.5	7.94	4.33

Cam Cameron is very familiar to midwestern football fans.  In his four years as head coach of Indiana University, with All-American QB Antwaan Randle-El under center, he won less than a third of his games.  He’s also very familiar to Floridian football fans.  In his one year as head coach of the Miami Dolphins, he one only one game—a freaky overtime TD away from beating the ‘08 Lions to the 0-16 punch.  However, Cameron is also very familiar to southern California football fans—as the architect of one of the most consistent, prolific offenses of the decade.

Cam Cameron is also very familiar to Gunther Cunningham.  For three seasons, 2004-2006, the two coached against each other in the AFC West division.  Regular readers know what that means: good data.  Though Cunningham ran Herm Edwards’ Tampa 2 defense in 2006, we still get four games between Cameron and Cunningham.  In ‘04, the Chargers were the #3 offense in football, averaging a whopping 27.9 points per game, a whopping 7.46 yards per pass attempt, and very-good-but-not-whopping 4.16 YpC.  Cunningam’s Chiefs, meanwhile, were the 29th-ranked scoring defense, probably better than expected given the appalling pass defense (8.05 YpA?).

Note that in the first game of 2004 and in the first game of 2005, the Chiefs held the Chargers’ running game to below its on-season average—quite a feat for a team allowing an 4.62 YpC average and facing LaDanian Tomlinson!  In fact, they held Tomlinson himself to a microscopic 2.19 YpC, and 4.09 YpC in the first contests of 2004 and 2005.  Cunningham must have entered each game absolutely dead set on containing Tomlinson, in order for the ‘04 and ‘05 Chiefs to hold the line like that.  It follows, then, that in both of those games, the Chiefs greatly outpaced their average effectiveness in the passing game, and scored points right in line with expectations.

However, looking at the second games of ‘04 and ‘05, we see the opposite effect: the Chiefs held the passing of the Chargers down below season averages, and also held the scoring down as well.  I was tempted to dismiss this effect when I noted it in the 2004 game, as the Chargers had already clinched the division and were resting their starters.  However, the pattern manifests itself much more plainly in the second game of 2005, when the Chiefs were the median defense instead of one of the worst.  They depressed the passing game severely, holding Drew Brees and company to just 4.88 yards per attempt—nearly two yards per attempt below either the season average gained for the Chargers (6.64) or allowed by the Chiefs (6.58).  The result?  The #5 scoring offense in the NFL put up seven measly points against the #16 scoring defense in the NFL.

There is a bit of a chicken-and-egg thing here; I can practically hear Ron Jaworski pounding the table and hollering, “POINTS COME OUT OF THE PASSING GAME!”  Were there fewer points scored because the passing game wasn’t working, or were the passing stats limited by the denial of long scoring plays?  One clue is in the disruption numbers: when Cunningham defenses depress scoring, it’s usually as a direct, or indirect, result of sacks or forced turnovers.  In this case, though, there was only 1 sack, 1 INT, and one fumble lost.  Enough to impact scoring, yes, but not hold a 26.1 PpG offense to a single score.

This is as strong of a statistical correlation as I’ve seen.  I’m comfortable stating it as fact: when Gunther Cunningham commits to denying Cam Cameron the run game, Cameron’s offenses merely throw more effectively, and score the expected amount of points.  When Gunther Cunningham commits to containing Cam Cameron’s passing offense, scoring is curtailed to well below expectations.

In 2009, Cam Cameron's offense, led by Joe Flacco, got off to a very hot start, leading talking heads to conclude early in the season that Baltimore is now an offense-first team. However, they’ve cooled off a bit since then.  They’re now the 10th-best scoring offense in the NFL, averaging a very healthy 23.4 points per game.  Average per-play effectiveness for both passing and running is very high: 6.95 YpA, and 4.25 YpC.

This is indeed a very balanced, effective offense, despite no real “studs” in the backfield or in space (no slight intended to Derrick Mason, but Larry Fitzgerald, he is not).  Despite the differences in ordinal rankings, which might lend credence to Gunther’s rant about tackling these days, this Ravens offense actually ranks in between the ‘04 and ‘05 Chargers in per-play effectiveness in the run and pass.  The field-goal-plus scoring disparity between these Ravens and those Chargers, though, points toward red zone problems.

Meanwhile, the Lions still have the 32nd-ranked—that is, worst--scoring defense in football: 30.5 points allowed per game.  Pass defense continues to be appalling, surrendering yards through the air at a 7.94 YpA clip.  The average opponent’s rushing attempt nets them 4.33 yards.  Given the state of the Lions’ secondary, and the way the Ravens have played this year, and the way it looks like Gunther figured Cameron out in the second game of the ‘05 season, I expect the Lions to load up to stop the pass.

Therefore, I’m going to gulp loudly and predict the Ravens to meet or slightly fall short of their season averages: 21-24 points, 6.5-7.0 YpA, and 4.25-4.75 YpC.  While I’m sure as I can be about the statistical effect I’ve seen above, I’m not so sure of Gunther’s game plan, so I’ll assign this projection medium-to-low confidence. 

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Offensively, the Ravens seem to be the opposite of the Bengals.  Where the Bengals seemed to be built for explosive downfield passing, yet have been relying on a power run game to make hay.  Meanwhile, the Ravens have been built around Willis McGahee and the defense for years—yet, Ray Rice, LeRon McClain, and a much-diminished McGahee are all cogs in a Flacco-triggered offense that’s been far more effective on-field than it is on paper.

However, the disparity between the Ravens’ ability to move the ball and ability to score feeds right into the strength of the Cunningham philosophy.  Think about the Thanksgiving game—in some cases, the end zone is the Lions’ best defender.  Removing the 20+ pass as a threat allows the Lions’ front seven to play more aggressively, and it allows the secondary to keep the play in front of them.  It’s possible that the Lions could hold the Ravens to even fewer points than I projected above.

Then again, the Ravens are at home, 6-6, fighting for a playoff spot, and recovering from a crushing Monday Night Football loss to the Packers.  It’s entirely possible that the Ravens come out looking to take out their frustrations on the Lions, and blow them out of the stadium.

Scott Linehan vs. Greg Mattison

I got nothin’.

Seriously, though, Greg Mattison’s NFL resumé is as long as last year.  Depsite a long, decorated tenure as a coordinator in the college ranks—think Florida, Notre Dame, and U-of-M—Mattison was hired last season by then-new head coach John Harbaugh to coach the linebackers.  When Rex Ryan left in the offseason to coach the Jets, Harbaugh promoted Mattison instead.  While the Ravens’ philosophy has stayed the same—aggressive, blitzing, no-holds-barred defense—I don’t believe that calling a man with 38 years of coaching experience a “disciple” of a man he worked under for one year is accurate.  Just for the record, though:

Lin	BAL	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
STL	BAL	28th	16.4	5.63	3.78	22nd	24.0	7.26	2.84	3	5.78	5	2.48	4-11
DET	BAL	24th	18.1	5.60	3.91	4th	17.1	6.72	3.54

When Scott Linehan’s horrible 2007 Rams offense that could sort-of run a little bit met the Ravens’ defense that allowed no running whatsoever, practically no points happened.  I don’t believe that this has any bearing on this Sunday’s contest.

However, the fact that Scott Linehan’s scoring offense is ranked 24th in the NFL, and Baltimore’s defense is ranked 4th?  That will have an awful lot of bearing on this Sunday’s contest.  Note, though, that that number keeps inching higher; at 18.1 points per game, the Lions are rapidly approaching the top of the bottom third of the league.  That, frankly, is ridiculous to point to as a positive, but such has been the state of the franchise.

Given a complete lack of data to work with, I can only project the Lions’ offensive production to meet expectations, given the current performance of the two units this year.  They should fall significantly short of their season average in points scored, while meeting or falling just shy of their passing and rushing effectiveness norms: 9-13 points, 5.00-5.50 YpA, and 3.50-4.00 YpC.  I have very low confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Unfortunately, with Matt Stafford already announced as inactive for this contest, that offense won’t be there.  Given that Megatron will be relatively healthy, I expect the offense’s play to be closer the Steelers game than the first Packers game—but we can’t be sure.  The Lions’ offense IS trending toward respectability, but the leader and triggerman is gone, and they’re playing their second straight road game against a top 5 scoring defense.  I don’t see any way the Lions surprise here, unless turnover margin or special teams swings the game wildly in the Lions’ favor—and that’s a long shot, indeed.

I’m sticking with the data here, folks, shaky though it might be: 21-24 points for the Ravens, and 9-13 points for the Lions.

Read more...