Week 1 Preview: Q&A with WIll from RamsHerd.com

To help break down the regular season opener, I traded Qs and As with Will Horton of RamsHerd.com, whose site got a killer makeover today.  RamsHerd combines smart Rams opinions with deep-dive analysis and snappy charting, much the same as we endeavor to here at TLiW. But, you know, with Lions.

Will, who is an excellent follow on Twitter @RamsHerd, sent me five well-researched questions and I attempted to do the same. Here’s how he replied:

The first question Lions fans are going to want to answered: How is Sam Bradford adapting to Brian Schottenheimer's offense? Schottenheimer took a lot of heat from Jets fans over the years, and this season must be considered the make-or-break for Bradford's development as a franchise quarterback?

The adaptation for Bradford seems to be going well, in terms of his understanding Brian Schottenheimer’s playbook (which is akin to Pat Shurmur’s, but a little more diverse) and being able to direct traffic. Most importantly, the ball is coming out of his hand much quicker than it was under McDaniels. Whether it’s route simplicity or more decisiveness on his part, he looks much closer to his rookie year form than his 2011 “deer in the headlights” form.

I still have concerns about his mechanics, especially his footwork and his ability/willingness to slide in the pocket to avoid pass rush, rather than simply bailing out or tucking in. He showed progress this summer, but a strong pass rush like the one the Cowboys put on him in game 3 of the preseason made him revert to last year’s bad habits.

As far as this being a “make or break” season, I think Bradford needs to have a good year, but it’s still too soon to expect greatness. Give him two years in the same offense and continue to upgrade his weaponry, and I still believe he can be a top-ten quarterback in this league.

For that matter, can Steve Smith, Danny Amendola and the rest of the Rams' receivers test the Lions' beleaguered secondary? With Chris Houston and Louis Delmas looking very unlikely to play, can the stoppable force move the movable object?

Bradford has been targeting outside receivers more often in Schottenheimer’s offense than he did under Shurmur, but the real wildcard will be TE Lance Kendricks. He plays the invaluable Dustin Keller role in this offense, and has looked very good at times. His hands run hot and cold, which is a big concern, but Bradford still looks comfortable throwing to him, particularly on third downs.

We have seen a decent amount of intermediate targets and a handful of deep throws in the offense so far, which is potentially good. But unless the offensive line picks up the Lions’ pass rush, though, Sam won’t have much time to hang in and stretch the secondary.

Chris Long had a breakout performance rushing the passer in 2011, and was rewarded with a lavish four-year extension. How will his ever-changing role change for 2012, and how hard will the Rams' pass rush be for the Lions to contain?

To use a Detroit metaphor, Chris Long’s best attribute is that he has plenty of horses under the hood. He is relentless on the pass rush, and is making a more focused effort against the run as well. He should have a strong year. But Robert Quinn is the pass rusher you have to fear. His speed to the passer is breathtaking, and he has a knack for finding the ball. However, with Michael Brockers out, Quinn will face more double-teams. Long has the better running partner this week in Kendall Langford, but long-term Quinn will be the guy that takes the big step forward this year.

You posed this one to me, let me turn it back on you: "This will be an interesting matchup of coaches, with the pupil taking on the master. How will Jeff Fisher gameplan against a team that might be his strategic mirror image?"

If I’m Jeff Fisher on offense, I try to take advantage of Ndamukong Suh’s over-aggressiveness with a lot of inside running plays, redirecting him out of a lane and sending a back through there. If we consistently get a back into the second level, that has the dual effect of putting your D back on its heels and saving Bradford from a lot of early wear and tear. Plus it makes Sam’s play-action (which is very good) a more potent weapon.

On defense, I don’t think you have to do anything special to contain the Lions’ running game. I roll the dice with Janoris Jenkins or Cortland Finnegan singled up on Calvin Johnson, and roll a safety over to help. However, given our woeful situation at safety, it’s really going to be up to the corners and the pass rush to keep Megatron from blasting huge holes in the defense.

Even if it doesn’t pay off, Fisher is looking to establish a blueprint based on strong individual cornerback play and this game gives him a great stress test.

The Rams' defense has a lot of new faces--including Cortland Finnegan, whom Lions fans coveted from the instant Schwartz was hired. Which one will have the biggest impact against the Lions?

Finnegan’s impact and leadership has already been huge in restoring a swagger to a decrepit Rams secondary. But the key difference-maker is Janoris Jenkins, who has as much pure playmaking ability as any rookie I’ve seen in a Rams uniform since Torry Holt. I’m really excited to see how he performs, especially since opponents will likely be targeting him like mad. If he plays up to the potential he flashed in camp, he has a very real shot at running away with the DROY award.

I’ve often cited the Rams and Bucs as comparison cases for the Lions: all three franchises hired new coaches in 2009, all three franchises rebuilt around a first-round quarterback, and all three had some measure of early success. But while the Lions were slower to get to a winning record, both the Bucs and the Rams crashed out, and find themselves at something like square one this season.

The Rams’ rebirth and re-death was stunning: they went from a 1-15 team to a 7-9 team and back down to 2-14, all with the eminently qualified Steve Spagnuolo (“Candidate 1A”) at the helm. The collapse also occurred with Bradford, the quarterback people said the Lions should pass on Matthew Stafford and tank the 2009 season to get, under center.

With Tampa Bay, Raheem Morris’s turnaround job always felt like smoke and mirrors. His resumé was laughably thin, his demeanor and approach unconventional. Many refused to believe that Morris was getting it done with anything other than smoke and mirrors—and in 2011 his detractors seemed to be proven right.

None of the strongest bounceback indicators are there; with the Rams’ –13.4 points-per-game scoring differential, Pythagoras expected them to go 2.3-13.7. But despite a lot of roster turnover on the defense and in the WR corps, the identity is the same: Sam Bradford and Steven Jackson, Chris Long anchoring a strong defensive line.

I can’t help but feel like that 7-9 team just needed a quick dusting-off before the playoff-bubble teams from two seasons ago would shine through.

If I’m right, we’ll find out quickly.

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Steve Spagnuolo, Jim Schwartz, & the Road Not Taken

Spags is my #1 choice for the next Lions head coach--and he ought to be yours, too.

That was the closing line of my fifth post ever, the "To Whom it May Concern" for Steve Spagnuolo. I tagged him “Candidate 1A,” thanks to his impressive track record of coaching up defensive backs and harnessing pass-rushing talent. He also had experience in player personnel, making him an ideal fit for a franchise turning the keys over to a first-time GM.

Monday, Spagnuolo was fired.

It’s a visceral reminder of how thin the line between success and failure is in the NFL. It’s a reminder of how “the right” choices and “the right” processes can still lead to bad outcomes. You can make a great coaching hire like Spags, draft great prospects like Sam Bradford and Robert Quinn, sign great free agents like Pro Football Focus darling Quentin Mikell, and still have the wheels fall off. It’s not enough to make good individual decisions, they all have to synthesize into a greater plan—and sometimes, even that isn’t enough.

Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch eloquently detailed how and why Steve Spagnuolo’s “trying hard” was too hard to swallow:

You don't get four-year or five-year building phases in this league anymore. You don't win seven games in your second season and then revert to being an expansion-team level mess in your third season. There should be zero tolerance for the horror of watching quarterback Sam Bradford regress so alarmingly in his second NFL season . . .

. . . My fear is that a bizarre alternate universe has set in over at Rams Park. It's a place where you can go 10-38 and merrily dish the kind of tributes usually reserved for a team that's gone 38-10.

We've lived in that alternate universe, haven't we, Lions fans?

Spagnuolo got off to a start mirroring Jim Schwartz’s. They both drafted franchise quarterbacks, they both took big jumps from one or two wins to six or seven wins, and coming into this season both had legitimate designs on making the playoffs.

In the end, though, Spagnuolo’s tenure more closely resembled Rod Marinelli’s. Both changed offensive coordinators in year three, both had major regressions on both sides of the ball, and both held a season’s worth of awkward press conferences full of blithering platitudes about building a foundation when the walls were clearly tumbling down.

And now: poetry.

Two roads diverged in a yellow wood
And sorry I could not travel both
And be one traveler, long I stood
And looked down one as far as I could
To where it bent in the undergrowth;

Then took the other, as just as fair
And having perhaps the better claim,
Because it was grassy and wanted wear;
Though as for that, the passing there
Had worn them really about the same, 10

And both that morning equally lay
In leaves no step had trodden black.
Oh, I kept the first for another day!
Yet knowing how way leads on to way,
I doubted if I should ever come back. 15

I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.

-Robert Frost, "The Road Not Taken"

Normally we just hear the last three lines of this poem, because this is America and “just being yourself” is our greatest collective virtue. Doing your own thing just to be different is universally lauded. Being interesting is just as valid, if not more so, than being good—just ask Lady Gaga.

But there are seventeen other lines to this poem, and Frost takes great pains to point out that neither of the two paths is any more or less virtuous. The path the speaker takes was “just as fair” as the other; it had “perhaps a better claim” because it was grassy and not worn down—but he admits both paths had been worn “really about the same.” Both were covered in undisturbed leaves anyway, so he might as well have flipped a coin.

This poem is about the lies we tell ourselves to spin our lives into dramatic narratives, with concrete causes and effects and triumphs and tragedies. The speaker tells himself he “kept the first [path] for another day,” even though in the back of his mind he knows it’s unlikely he’ll ever make this choice again.

The speaker is self-aware enough to know someday, years and years down the line, he’ll wistfully recall this apparently-fateful day in the woods—and tell someone with a sigh he took the road less traveled by, and in the end it made all the difference. He’s foretelling his own revisionist history! The choice, we know, was basically a whim—and whatever events followed it coincidental.

It's tempting to say Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand—or, if he is to be believed, William Clay Ford—were blessed with incredible foresight to let the Rams have the consensus “Candidate 1A” and tab Jim Schwartz to lead the Lions from the absolute bottom of the blackest abyss to the top of the mountain. It’s tempting to believe the Lions, by marching to the beat of their own drummer, got the “right” guy while the Rams foolishly followed the herd and got the “wrong” guy. Who knows? Perhaps it’s true.

But on the face of it, Spagnuolo and Schwartz were both great (and similar) candidates. So many factors go into the success of an NFL franchise that a head coach can be consistently excellent at his job and still fail (see: Andy Reid, who may have to hire Spags to save his own skin). Who’s to say that had the situations been reversed, Spagnuolo wouldn’t be leading the Lions to the playoffs while Schwartz tries to team back up with Jeff Fisher?

Whether it was a stroke of brilliant insight by the Lions executives, or a stroke of sheer luck, the Detroit Lions have a great coach doing great work with the considerable resources at his command. I can’t pretend I wouldn’t have loved the hiring of Steve Spagnuolo, nor can I pretend that if Spags were successful as Schwartz has been I wouldn’t be just as thrilled to have him prowling the Ford Field sidelines.

But the Lions took the head-banging, chess-playing, ref-eviscerating candidate less wanted, and I’m happy to tell myself The Grandmaster has made all the difference.

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Rams

Of all the crucial, critical, star-crossed, must-win matchups the Lions have faced so far this season, none is more important than this one.  Why?  Even the most pessimistic projections of the Lions win totals include this game as one of them.  The Rams are the only team most onlookers felt the Lions were clearly better than heading into this season, and the matchup was commonly thought of as an island of winnability amidst division-road-game-infested waters.

Unfortunately, the Lions' ship has run aground on every reef along the way; they’ve finally beached themselves on this island’s shore, only to find restless natives that are riding a two-game winning streak and boast the NFL’s 4th-best scoring defense.  Suddenly, this pencilled-in win looks like a tooth-and-nail battle—and if they can’t come up with a W before this not-yet-sold-out home crowd, it’s going to be a long, ugly, blacked-out season at Ford Field. 

Scott Linehan vs. Steve Spagnuolo

Lin	Spags	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	16	7.30	1	4.11	3-1	4-11
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	14	6.72	2	4.33	3-1	3-28
STL	NYG	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	5th	18.4	6.24	3.97	13	5.53	1	4.25	0-0	6-44
DET	STL	27th	16.4	7.80	4.42	31st	27.2	7.67	4.40	8	5.09	1	3.85	0-0	2-6
DET	STL	13th	20.5	5.78	3.69	4th	13.0	6.28	4.56

In last season’s Watchtowering of the Rams, I reminded folks that I was a fan of Head Coach Steve Spagnuolo:

Spagnuolo, for those who’ve been reading this blog since back when only seven or eight people were reading this blog, was my initial choice for Lions’ HC; I actually tagged him “Candidate 1A” after breaking down his resume.

I broke down data of matchups between Linehan and Spags’ mentor, the late Jim Johnson, and one between Linehan and Spagnuolo himself.  Here’s how I put it then:

Based on the sole data point between Linehan and Spagnuolo, I'd be tempted to conclude that there’s a massive systemic advantage for Linehan, given that the woeful Rams essentially performed to their season averages against one of the best defenses in the league. However, giving some consideration to the strong Linehan/Johnson data, the correct conclusion is that given lesser or equal talent, there is a mild systemic advantage for a balanced Scott Linehan offense when facing an aggressive Steve Spagnuolo 4-3, especially when boasting an effective inside running game.

Given how poor the Rams’ defense had been up to that point (they would finish as the second-worst in football), and how kinda not that terrible the Lions’ offense had been (they would finish 27th), I felt comfortable projecting the following:

Given a definite execution advantage and a mild systemic advantage, the Lions should strongly outperform expectations--and their season averages. I would expect 24-27 points, 6.5 to 6.75 YpA, and 4.0 to 4.25 YpC. I have medium confidence in this projection.

Well, that medium confidence was wholly unfounded.  The Lions mustered only 8 offensive points, 5.09 YpA, and 3.85 YpC.  They did not outperform their season averages; in fact they profoundly underperformed them.  This result completely confounds my prediction and rational expectations.  Matthew Stafford started and played that game; it wasn’t a matter of Culpepper smothering the offense.  So, what was it?  I reviewed my Three Cups Deep post from after the ‘09 Rams game:

In the theatre of the mind, the DVD one feels has been popped in is the 2002 Lions. There’s rookie Joey Harrington trying to keep his head above water, throwing to a cobbled-together crew of stone-handed also-rans: Bill Schroeder, Az-Zahir Hakim, Scotty Anderson. There’s RB James Stewart, a decent NFL starting back, whose inside running style is being stymied by an offensive line unable to open inside holes. That line, of course, features Jeff Backus, Dominic Raiola, a young mammoth RT with tons of upside but questionable athleticism and instincts (Stockar McDougle), and a rotating cast of has-beens and never-wases at guard (Tony Semple, Ray Brown, Eric Beverly) . . .

The resemblance is uncanny. However, there are a few critical differences between the ‘02 Lions and the ‘09 Lions. Joey Harrington, then, was clearly “swimming”; in NFL-speak, that’s thinking instead of acting or reacting. You could watch his wheels turning, watch him trying to take it all in, watch him trying desperately to slow it all down. In 2009, Matthew Stafford looks more like he wishes he could slow it down for his teammates. He looks like he’s trying to will his team to victory—or like he’s trying to win despite them. It’s telling that on the Lions’ sole offensive score, Stafford called his own number.

Oh.  Right.  No Megatron.

It’s difficult to quantify exactly how much impact Calvin Johnson has on the Lions’ offense, but here’s a dramatic example.  Kevin Smith led the Lions in receptions that day, with 4.  Bryant Johnson’s two receptions tied him with Brandon Pettigrew, Aaron Brown, and Casey FitzSimmons for the second-most balls caught.  The only other Lions to catch passes that day were Maurice Morris and Will Heller, meaning that Bryant Johnson’s 2 catches were the only catches any Lions wide receiver made that day.

Let’s say for the sake of projections, though, that that game invalidated my conclusion that Scott Linehan offenses have a systemic advantage over Steve Spagnuolo defenses (even though I’m not sure it did).  The Lions are the best offense the Rams have faced so far this year, averaging 20.5 points per game—and the Rams, at least by the numbers, are the second-best scoring defense the Lions have faced this year (Minnesota is #1 overall).  By the averages, then, the Lions should score 13-17 points.

However, as I've been saying, this early in the year means averages aren’t exactly gospel.  The Rams have faced the Cardinals, Raiders, Redskins, and Seahawks, and allowed 17, 16, 16, and 3 points in those games.  I’m inclined to believe that allowing about 16 points to a mediocre offense is where the Rams’ defense “really” is, and the Lions have a slightly-better-than-mediocre offense.  They also have Calvin.

Still, the numbers are the numbers for a reason, and when I follow them they usually treat me right.  Given theoretically-lesser-but-probably-really-equal talent, and a nonexistent-but-probably-really-existent systemic advantage, especially vis-a-vis the run game, I project the Lions will score 15-to-20 points, pass for 6.25-to-6.50 YpA, and rush for 4.5-to-4.75 YpC.  I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

Augmenting/Mitgating Influences:

Pretty much as I laid out above: except for last week, the Rams are consistently allowing 16 or 17 points to mediocre offenses.  Oakland is ranked 17th w/19.0 ppg, Washington's 19th with 18.2 ppg, Seattle's 18th with 18.8, and Arizona’s 29th with 14.5 ppg.  The Lions are a cut above these teams—and if Jahvid Best is ready to go, he could have a monster day.  If the Lions can spring him for a long run or two, the Lions could really turn this one into a shootout—or a blowout.

I don’t see any downside here.  The Lions’ offense is much, much better in both dimensions than they were last year, they’re at home, and they’ve got everyone back except for Stafford.  I “really” think the Lions will score 27-30 points, but the methodology just doesn’t lead to that conclusion.

Gunther Cunningham vs. Pat Shurmur

Shurm	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
PHI	TEN	4th	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.64	1-1	6-31
PHI	KCC	18th	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	37	7.69	1	1.65	3-1	1-1
STL	DET	32nd	10.9	4.95	4.34	32nd	30.9	5.42	4.42	17	5.9	1	5.77	0-0	0-0
STL	DET	16th	19.2	5.49	3.46	25th	26.5	8.03	4.85

 

Last year was Pat Shurmur’s first as an offensive coordinator—but since he’d learned exclusively at the knee of Andy Reid, I went ahead and analyzed Gunther’s track record against Reid.  The data was kind of all over the place, except for one extremely strong trend:

Given how loosely connected these two data points are to Pat Shurmur, and how wildly they vary between each other, I cannot draw a firm conclusion, other than Reid/Shurmur Walsh-style offenses run the football well below expectations when facing a Schwartz/Cunningham aggressive 4-3.

. . . unless, of course, Steven Jackson happens.

Therefore, given no talent advantage for either side, and only a very questionable systemic advantage for Cunningham defenses against the running game of Reid/Shurmur offenses, I expect the Rams' output will meet expectations. This means they should outpace their season averages: I project 10-13 points, 5.60-5.80 YpA, and 4.5-4.75 YpA.  I have medium-low confidence in this projection.

We immediately run into a problem: the Rams scored 17 points in the game, but seven of those points came on a fake field goal.  I’ve said before that I only count the points scored in offense-defense interaction; I’m trying to isolate the effect of an offensive system facing a defensive system.  But, unlike an interception taken back to the house, I can’t just wipe the seven points off the board here; the Lions’ defense let the Rams get within field goal range—and likely would have surrendered three points if the Rams hadn’t faked it.  So, for the sake of judging my projection, I’ll rewrite history and say they attempted and made a field goal; that makes 13 points, right in line with my projections.

So.  The Rams’ offense should meet talent/execution expectations against the Lions; but what are they?  The Rams’ offensive output this season, is double what it was at this time last year; at 19.2 ppg they are the median offense in the NFL.  Facing the Lions’ 26th-ranked defense, they should be in for an above-their-averages day.   Meanwhile, the Lions’ defense should allow just about exactly their averages.  Given no real systemic advantage or disadvantage, I project the Rams’ offense to meet expectations against the Lions’ defense: 23-26 points, 6.5-7.5 YpA, and 4.00-4.25 YpC.  I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Any time you have a rookie quarterback starting, it’s a big bag of question marks.  As Chris McCosky pointed out in the News, Steven Jackson was the difference in the game last year.  He’s coming off a warriorlike performance against the Seahawks, playing through a fresh groin injury—still, his 22 badass carries were only good for 3.18 yards per (70 total).  If he’s no more effective this week, the Lions’ defense will be able to tee off on the quarterback.

Speaking of teeing off on the rookie, the Lions’ defensive linemen have to be drooling.  With second-year tackle Jason Smith on the left, and rookie Roger Saffold on the right, and the Lions boasting the fourth-best sack rate (per dropback) in the NFL, well . . . you connect the dots.  With the exception of DeAndre Levy, the whole defense will be out there—and Alphonso Smith may be getting his first start of the season, helping bolster the secondary.  If  Steven Jackson isn’t Steven Jackson, the Lions could put the clamps on the St. Louis offense—quickly.

Conclusion:

The numbers tell me that the most likely outcome will be a 20-24 loss.  However, I just can’t believe it.  All of the factors besides the raw data point towards the Lions both scoring more, and allowing fewer, points against the Rams.  My instincts tell me that the team that fell two points shy of beating the Packers in Lambeau has the edge over the Rams at home—and Vegas agrees with me; the Lions are three point favorites.  Either way, it will be a closer game than we thought it’d be going into the season—but I’m going to depart from the numbers.  I’m predicting a 27-17 win for the Lions.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,st. louis rams,jim schwartz,steve spagnuolo,matthew stafford,calvin johnson,sam bradford,steven jackson

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the watchtower: lions vs. Rams

Rob Milanov over at the Bleacher Report captured the feelings of Lions fans everywhere when he wrote, “What Do You Do When Your Football Team Is Actually Favored To Win?”  That’s right—for the first time since the 2008 season opener, the Lions are four-point Vegas favorites.  What, really?  Yes, really—the Lions are expected to win this game by the greater football universe.  Let’s see if the historical data between these teams’ coaches supports that conclusion . . .

Scott Linehan versus Steve Spagnuolo:

Lin	Spags	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	16	7.30	1	4.11	4-11
MIN	PHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	2nd	16.2	5.84	4.31	14	6.72	2	4.33	3-28
STL	NYG	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	5th	18.4	6.24	3.97	13	5.53	1	4.25	6-44
DET	STL	23rd	17.2	5.50	3.74	30th	30.1	7.83	4.30

Obnoxiously, both the Rams’ defense-minded head coach, Steve Spagnuolo, and their offensive coordinator, Pat Shurmur, have been extremely successful position coaches for a long time in the NFL—but Spags was only a coordinator for two seasons in New York, and this will be Shurmur’s first time calling his own signals.  Spagnuolo, for those who’ve been reading this blog since back when only seven or eight people were reading this blog, was my initial choice for Lions’ HC; I actually tagged him “Candidate 1A” after breaking down his resume:

That Spagnuolo's defense could simply plug in Justin Tuck and Matthias Kiwanauka and still be a fear-inspiring, quarterback-eating, Top 5 defense, speaks highly of the Giants' drafting, Spagnuolo's football teaching abilities, and Spags' scheming and system as well. It's worth comparing his system to his mentor Jim Johnson's in Philly: lots of good, decent, and/or okay DEs and LBs have rotated in and out of Johnson's defenses in the past decade, yet the Philly defense is always amongst the leagues' best (this year the Eagles were ranked 4th, 3rd, and 3rd in the categories above, respectively).

Fortunately, we do have a data point between Linehan and Spagnuolo from Spags’ coordinatorship.  I’m still going to look at data between Linehan’s Vikings and Spagnuolo’s mentor, the late, great Jim Johnson, as it includes two games in the same season—statistically, highly desirable.

In 2004, Linehan's Vikings were, of course, a juggernaut: 6th in scoring offense at 25.3 points per game, 7.16 yards per pass attempt, and 4.71 yards per carry.  Incredibly, though, Philly's defense was even more impressive that year.  Ranked 2nd overall, they allowed only 16.2 points per game, and just 5.84 YpA--though they were run on between the 20s, with a YpC of 4.31.

Given the slightly superior talent, it's no surprise that both games resulted in point totals near Philly's season average allowed--dead on with 16 in the first game, and then 14 in the outdoor, Philly-hosted playoff game.  The passing and rushing averages are right about where you'd expect, too. There's about a half-yard swing in the run-pass effectiveness balance from the September 20th game to the January 11th playoff game, but that's only natural, as well.

In 2008 (*cough* while Linehan was still the head coach *cough*), Linehan's Rams faced Spagnuolo's Giants.  This should be a better data point, as we have Linehan's offense versus a defense that is truly masterminded by Spagnuolo.  Unfortunately, it’s not a great data point because the Rams were terrible that season, and the Giants were excellent.

The Rams were 30th in points scored, eking out just 14.5 points a game, while the Giants were the 5th-best scoring defense in the NFL, allowing just 14.  The Rams were better at running than passing, averaging an okay 3.95 YpC, but only mustering 5.67 YpA.  The Giants were a fairly balanced defense, allowing 6.24 YpA and 3.97 YpC.  You’d expect the score to be well below the Rams’ season average, but it wasn’t: they scored 13 points, only 1.5 below their norm.  Linehan’s Rams mildly outperformed expectations on the ground, gaining a healthy 4.25 YpC.  YpA was right at their season average as well: 5.53 YpA actual vs. 5.67 YpA on the year (this includes their TD, a 45-yard bomb to Torry Holt).

Based on the sole data point between Linehan and Spagnuolo, I'd be tempted to conclude that there’s a massive systemic advantage for Linehan, given that the woeful Rams essentially performed to their season averages against one of the best defenses in the league.  However, giving some consideration to the strong Linehan/Johnson data, the correct conclusion is that given lesser or equal talent, there is a mild systemic advantage for a balanced Scott Linehan offense when facing an aggressive Steve Spagnuolo 4-3, especially when boasting an effective inside running game.

So far this season, the Lions have mustered a respectable 17.2 points per game, good enough to be ranked 23rd in the league.  That doesn’t sound impressive unless you are a Lions fan.  Averaging a (pretty poor) 5.50 yards per pass attempt and (kinda okay) 3.74 yards per rushing attempt, the Lions haven’t had a talent/execution advantage over, really, any of the teams they’ve faced so far.  Then again, they haven’t yet faced the Rams.

Ranked 30th in the NFL, the Rams’ defense has been allowing 30.1 points per game, an appalling 7.83 YpA, and a not-much-better 4.30 YpC.  Given a definite execution advantage and a mild systemic advantage, the Lions should strongly outperform expectations--and their season averages.  I would expect 24-27 points, 6.5 to 6.75 YpA, and 4.0 to 4.25 YpC. I have medium confidence in this projection.

Intangibles:

I credited much of Linehan's systemic advantage over Spagnuolo to a strong inside running game--it may have drawn coverage up, reopening the deep pass.  However, the Lions have struggled with this.  Spotty interior line play has led to a constant rotation of personnel, culminating this week with the insertion of veteran reserve RT Jon Jansen at LG.  Also, I’d like to note that while the sack numbers put up by Spagnuolo defenses versus Linehan offenses are alarming, those Spagnuolo defenses were all top five defenses.  These Rams are ranked 22nd in the NFL in sacks, with 12.

While both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson are listed as questionable, Stafford took all the first-team reps on Friday, but Megatron still appeared limited.  At this point it’s unquestionable that the Lions are  a much better offensive team with them both in the lineup; it remains an open question as to how much better the Lions are with just one able to go.

Ultimately, Stafford’s return should give the Lions improved QB play over their season average.  Combined with St. Louis’ horrific pass D, the Lions should still strongly outperform their averages on offense.  Therefore, I’m calling the intangibles a wash, and presuming that Megatron’s presence, or lack thereof, will simply push the Lions’ performance to the high end, or low end, of my projections.

Pat Shurmur versus Gunther Cunningam:

Shurm	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
PHI	TEN	4th	25.9	6.18	4.54	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	24	5.89	2	3.64	6-31
PHI	KCC	18th	19.4	5.93	3.92	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	37	7.69	1	1.65	1-1
STL	DET	32nd	8.6	5.25	4.38	31st	31.3	7.83	4.65

Really, this should be a very, very, very short section, consisting of one sentence: this is Pat Shurmur's first season as an offensive coordinator.

However, much like Jim Zorn, Shurmur has been a position coach, primarily the quarterbacks coach, under a 10th-degree Walsh Offense Ninja Master--in this case, Andy Reid. While Shurmur has been a valued assistant to Reid since 1999, he's not even been the second banana at any points in that stretch. Therefore, this limited data is of questionable use--though Shurmur has indeed "forklifted" Reid's offense from Philly to St. Louis.

In 2002, Reid’s Eagles met Schwartz/Gun’s Titans, and the Eagles were an impressive offense: ranked 4th in the league with 25.9 PpG, passing for 6.18 YpA (doesn’t sound amazing, but remember, short Walsh passes), and running for a thumping 4.54 YpC.  Still, the Titans weren’t a wet-tissue defense.  Ranked 11th in scoring D with 20.2 PpG, they were beatable through the air (6.30 YpA), but stouter against the run (3.83 YpC).  The results were right in line with expectations: the Eagles scored 24 points, slightly under their average.  They were held to 5.89 YpA, slightly under their average.  However, they were also held to 3.64 YpC, nearly a full yard less than their average.  Interestingly, Reid’s Eagles were also intercepted twice, and sacked 6 times for –31 yards.

In 2005, Reid's Eagles met Cunningham's Chiefs. The Eagles were much less terrifying that season, ranked 18th with 19.4 PpG.  Passing for slightly fewer yards per attempt (5.93) and, significantly, rushing for far fewer yards per carry (3.92).  The ‘05 Chiefs were ranked lower than the ‘02 Titans (16th vs. 11th) despite having very similar numbers in PpG (20.2 vs. 20.3), YpA (6.30 vs. 6.58), and YpC (3.83 vs. 4.10).  Astoundingly, the Eagles went completely gonzo: 37 points, and 7.69 YpA.  However, most of that can be explained by one Terrell Owens abusing a poor KC secondary for 11 catches, 171 yards, and a score.  Also, note just one INT and one sack, down quite a bit from the previous matchup’s disruption numbers.  However, there is one key data point: the Eagles ran 17 times for only 28 yards against those Chiefs, for a miniscule 1.65 YpC.

Given how loosely connected these two data points are to Pat Shurmur, and how wildly they vary between each other, I cannot draw a firm conclusion, other than Reid/Shurmur Walsh-style offenses run the football well below expectations when facing a Schwartz/Cunningham aggressive 4-3.

So far this season, the Lions’ defense has been barely better than 2008’s disastrous unit: ranked 31st in points allowed (31.3 PpG), allowing a whopping 7.83 YpA (yes, the exact same number as the Rams’ D, I triple-checked), and slightly better 4.30 YpC.  However, this week brings the cure for what ails them: the dead-last-ranked Rams’ offense is averaging only . . . 8.2 points per game.

Oh, my stars and garters.  That is epically, shockingly, terrifically bad.  I hate to disrespect so proud of a Spartan as Pat Shurmur, but his unit has to be well on the way to being the worst NFL offense ever.  Of course I’m not saying it’s his fault; it’s the fault of the patchwork offensive line, UFL-caliber wideouts, and terrible quarterback play.  Still, as they say, it is what it is.  The Rams absolutely cannot score points. Given their really pathetic 5.25 yards per attempt, their stout 4.38 YpC hasn't really mattered.

Intangibles:

Literally right now, while writing this, Theismann, Papa, and Sharpe just started breaking down this game on the NFL Network. Their consensus was that Steven Jackson is the best player on the field in this game. Combined with the "fact" that the Rams "like" to throw the ball, and the Lions' secondary is weak, all three analysts picked the Rams to win.

For starters, at 5.25 YpA, the Rams can “like” to throw the ball as much as they want, but they don’t throw the ball.  They’re the worst offense in the NFL, even with a stud runningback.  I mean, even if the Rams drastically outperform their averages through the air, they’ll still be subpar. 

Moreover, Steven Jackson has been Steven Jackson for years now, and it hasn’t helped the Rams win lots of games this year any more than it did last year or the year before.  When you have no defense, and no receivers, and no offensive line, and your quarterback has turned to dust . . . well, having a workhorse power back who grinds out 4.5 YpC 4.5 yards at at time isn’t going to score enough points to outscore any better offense--and this year, every offense in the NFL is better than the Rams'.

Therefore, given no talent advantage for either side, and only a very questionable systemic advantage for Cunningham defenses against the running game of Reid/Shurmur offenses, I expect the Rams' output will meet expectations.  This means they should outpace their season averages: I project 10-13 points, 5.60-5.80 YpA, and 4.5-4.75 YpA.  I have medium-low confidence in this projection.

Well, there you have it, folks: 24-27 points for the Lions, 10-13 points for the Rams.  According to my analysis, the Lions should not only win, but cover the spread.  That is interesting news indeed.  Again, I deeply apologize to you, my readers, for the lateness of the post--but I hope you'll find it the most worthwhile Watchtower yet.  If the Lions win 24-13 we're all going to Vegas next week, okay?  For now, though, I'll be happy if I could just find a place to watch the game . . .

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Jim Schwartz Meets With Detroit Lions Media: Rumors and Lies

Last night, the interwebs fairly well exploded with reports that Titans DC Jim Schwartz (codename: 'Grandmaster') was flying in to Detroit to interview—and Pro Football Talk's sources claimed (click the 'exploded') that the Titans were convinced Schwartz's flight to the 'D' was on a one-way ticket.  In the red-eyed dawn of another frozen Monday, though, things still look to be fairly unsettled.  Many outlets are reporting that Leslie Frazier and Miami DB coach/assistant HC Todd Bowles (to whom it may concern piece still coming) are still due to be brought in for second interviews.

Interestingly enough, the Grandmaster was allowed to hold a presser for the Detroit media today.  Given the total radio silence from Lions officials since the Lions' officials officially became Lions officials, letting a candidate get up on the dais and address the media--albeit briefly--seems incongrous.  I'm reminded of the presser Rod Marinelli held to announce that the Lions had not yet hired Mike Martz to be the new offensive coordinator, and spent the entire time trying to remind himself to throw in an "IF we hire him" when responding to questions.  Sayeth Schwartz: "I think it's time to find a replacement for Bobby Layne".

NFL.com's Adam Schefter has since reported that the Lions also contacted Chargers DC Ron Rivera again--as a reminder, last week Rivera rebuffed the Lions (and any other team that came calling) so he could focus 100% on preparing his defense to get pistol whipped by Big Ben and the Steelers.  I haven't heard anything on an interview being scheduled, merely the Lions brass courteously following up.

According to the Newark Star-Ledger, Candidate 1A is now far behind Ravens DC Rex Ryan for the Jets' head coaching position.  He was at least superficially courted by everyone with an opening, but the Jets seemed to be the franchise with the most serious interest--and the most mutual interest.

One fewer musical chair: while Leslie Frazier had been heavily rumored to be in the final two for the Broncos gig, today the Broncos hired Patriots OC Josh McDaniels.  Mangini, McDaniels--all the offensive guys with "M" names are getting snapped up by other teams; that is fine with me.  If the Ravens do hire Rex Ryan, that leaves the Rams, the Raiders (who haven't yet lined up all the high school coaches they want to interview), and us as the final teams looking for a skipper.  This means that even if Mayhew and Lewand take their time, we'll probably still have our pick of Candidate 1A, The Grandmaster, Frazier, and Bowles--probably the top four candidates on the Lions' board.  Not too shabby for the worst team ever--just hope the Rams hire Mike Mularkey.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jim schwartz,rex ryan,ron rivera,josh mcdaniels,steve spagnuolo,st. louis rams,baltimore ravens,new york jets,denver broncos,adam schefter

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Steve Spagnuolo Coaching Resumé: to whom it may concern

Yikes!  Ol' Spags kinda jumps off the page at you there, doesn't he?  If this is what happens when you ask Steve Spagnuolo to "smile", then I think he'll be just fine as the Lions' next head coach.  For all the official-bio stuff, click the picture.

Spags comes from an excellent lineage, most notably spending seven years with the Philadelphia Eagles and studying under the master of the hyperaggressive 4-3, Jim Johnson.  Spagnuolo has been a defensive line, linebackers, and defensive backs coach and a defensive coordinator at the NFL Europe level or higher.  Intriguingly, he broke into the NFL as a player personnel intern with the Redskins in 1983.  Before you ask, Martin Mayhew was drafted by the 'Skins in 1988, so no, Spags didn't evaluate Mayhew as a player twenty years before interviewing with Mayhew for the Lions gig.  Spags also served as a scout for the Chargers in 1993 . . . if he hadn't left to take the DC gig at the University of Maine, he might have scored a AFC Championship ring from Bobby Ross' 1994 squad.

Since we just looked at the absolutely disgusting team defense stats of the Lions this year, let's cleanse our pallette by looking at the stout performances of Spag's Giants squad:

The Giants were ranked fifth in scoring defense, allowing just 18.4 points per game.  What I'm about to do just screams "internet football nerd who doesn't get it", because football is way too complex for a simple translation like this to have any real meaning, but . . . the Lions' offense mustered 16.8 points per game.  If they'd allowed an average of anywhere near 18.4 ppg, instead of the hellacious 32.3 they really did allow, they might could have got a win or two.  God, we allowed twice as many points as we scored . . . no wonder we went 0-16.

The Giants were also fifth in yardage defense, allowing only 292 yards per game.

New York also finished sixth in sacks with 42, compared to the Lions' 30.  Amazingly, this was accomplished despite losing franchise DE Michael Strahan to retirement, and heir apparent Osi Umenyiora (who's lead the Giants in sacks the last four years running).

That Spagnuolo's defense could simply plug in Justin Tuck and Matthias Kiwanauka and still be a fear-inspiring, quarterback-eating, Top 5 defense, speaks highly of the Giants' drafting, Spagnuolo's football teaching abilities, and Spags' scheming and system as well.  It's worth comparing his system to his mentor Jim Johnson's in Philly: lots of good, decent, and/or okay DEs and LBs have rotated in and out of Johnson's defenses in the past decade, yet the Philly defense is always amongst the leagues' best (this year the Eagles were ranked 4th, 3rd, and 3rd in the categories above, respectively).

I think that Spagnuolo's system is an ideal fit for the defensive talent we have--lots of one-gap pass rushers up front, lots of fast and aggressive linebackers (IMAGINE Ernie Sims blitzing every down instead of playing a short zone!).  The Lions' secondary doesn't match up to the perennially star-studded defensive backfield the Eagles boast, but in terms of talent back there, the Giants frankly don't have much the Lions don't also.  Their two starting corners are Corey Webster, a fourth-year second-round pick, whose three INTs more than doubled the two he racked up in his first three seasons, and a second-year first round pick in Aaron Ross.  Yeah, they are highly-drafted guys, but corner is the defensive mirror of WR: most CBs take several years to master technique and get burned enough to learn when to gamble and when to not gamble.  The Giants boast 17 INTs as a team, but no more than 3 by any one player (10 different players have at least one).  This suggests that the defense is working the way the Tampa 2 is supposed to: the pressure up front is creating rushed, panicked throws.  This shortens the field for the corners and safeties and prevents the defense from getting beaten deep.

Spagnuolo's teaching ability and experience at every level (line, linebackers, DBs, coordinator) of the defense is apparent.  His system would not only be a good fit for our talent, his aggressive style will make for a quick "buy-in", too.  Sims sees himself as the leader of the defense; don't you think he will react well to getting the leash taken off him and being told "Kill, Ernie!  KILL!"?  Spags is highly respected around the league, and highly sought after by other teams (he will interview for the Broncos' coaching gig today, and has already talked to the Browns).  With his background in scouting and player personnel, he will be a great help for Mayhew in finding the right defensive talent to aid a quick turnaround.  Spags is my #1 choice for the next Lions head coach--and he ought to be yours, too.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,steve spagnuolo,st. louis rams,new york giants

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Martin mayhew moving quickly For defensive coach

The shakeup in Allen Park has been both swift and decisive.  "Decisions" coming from Big Willie Style (+posse) usually involve a lot of leaked rumors, contradictory press releases, and sometimes even contradictory press conferences (Millen: "we have decided to retain Marty Mornhinweg for next season.  Wait, what?  They fired Mooch?  Uh, everyone turn around and plug your ears for a minute while I make a couple calls .  . . ").

The way this organization typically does business, I expected the Marinelli firing midweek, the announcement of the promotion of Mayhew and Lewand in a couple-three weeks, and the coaching search to begin shortly after that.  But for once, the Lions have a least a few of their ducks in what appears to be something not unlike a row.  The power structure is in place, and the huge list of variables has already been winnowed down to one: the Head Coach.

Evidently Mayhew knows exactly what's at stake; he must get the best available candidate as soon as possible.  There are a ton of openings this offseason, and if the music stops and there are no chairs left, we're looking at a repeat of the Mornhinweg hire.  Millen waited on his first choice, Mooch, and when Mooch didn't come available, Millen poked around for a little while, and eventually settled for Mariucci's right-hand man, presumably to lay the foundation for the glorious day when Mooch would come home--we all know how both of those hires played out.

Mayhew, however, has spent his first day on the job lining up a Who's Who of hot candidates.  Adam Schefter reports that the Lions have sought permission to interview, in a mildly particular order:

• Giants Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo
• Cowboys Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett
• Titans Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz
• Vikings Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier
• Redskins Defensive Backs Coach Jerry Gray

I'll be breaking each of these down over the next couple of days, also in mildly particular order.  However, we can see a pattern emerging here: coordinators (or former coordinators) with no head-coaching experience; most from solid coaching trees; some are former players.  With the exception of Garrett, they're all defensive coaches.  I think this speaks to the crucial point: as awful as the Lions' woes at quarterback and offensive line have been, it's been the wet-newspaper defense that's really pounded the nails in the Lions' coffin.  Just look at the numbers:

Scoring Defense: Ranked 32nd--and it isn't close for 31st--with 517 points allowed (32.3 per  game!).  That's over double the amount of points that either the Steelers or Ravens allowed.

Yardage Defense: Ranked 32nd, with 6,470 yards allowed.

Passing Defense: Allowing a mere 3,716 yards passing makes slots the Lions' D 27th here, but that's highly misleading as no team had fewer passes attempted against them (an average of only 27.7 attempts per game against).  Opposing QBs, on the average, had a passer efficiency rating of 110.9--just think about that; every quarterback in the league becomes Steve Young at his peak when facing the 2008 Lions.

Rushing Defense: Ranked butt-naked last.  2,754 yards allowed on 536 carries; despite getting run at more times than any other defense save Seattle and Oakland, the Lions still allowed a mind-boggling 5.1 yards per carry.  Every running back in the league became Jim Brown against the 2008 Lions.

I knew the defense was dire . . . but looking at the numbers, this is simply unbelievable.  What's worse is that the numbers can't show how inopportune this defense was; stuffing the run on first down, getting the sack on second down, allowing the 35-yard completion on third down.  Over and over and over and over, the Lions defense would show flashes of what they were meant to be for a play or a series or even a quarter--but when it mattered, the Lions defense could be absolutely counted on to play like they had forgotten to put a few guys out on the field.

This is Marinelli's greatest failure (though arguably not the failure that actually got him fired, more on that another time): brought in as a tough-minded defensive coach who taught fundamentals, execution, and consistency above all else--hell, to the exclusion of all else--the fundamentals, execution, and consistency of this defense were all putrid.  In fact, considering the meh-to-adequate run game, the tepid efficiency + occasional Megatron passing attack, and outstanding kicking game, it was the Pop Warner tackling, blown assignments, awful run fits, overpursuing LBs, and the complete and total inability to prevent TEs from catching and scoring at will--everything Rod Marinelli preached as being vital to a team's success--that were the things most lacking from this team.  I can't explain how or why, but what he preached in practice (and if you believe everyone in Allen Park's repeated insistence, what was happening in practice) wasn't making it onto the field.  I do believe this is partly due to lack of talent--a big part of "talent" is football intelligence and instincts; you can show a horse film and give him grades but you can't make him cover a tight end downfield.  However, Rod consistently pushed to acquire raw prospects he thought he could 'coach up', yet few of these ever became more than what they were.

Speaking of which, the defensive larder is now full of Marinelli projects: DT Andre Fluellen, DEs Dewayne White and Cliff Avril, DE/DT Ikaika "Five-O" Alama-Francis, LBs Ernie Sims and Jordon Dizon, safties Daniel Bullocks and Gerald Alexander.  There are also the holdovers from the Mooch era that fit the Marinelli mold: DTs Cory Redding and Shaun Cody, LBs Paris Lenon and Alex Lewis, and CB Travis Fisher.  Finally, the Marinelli/Tampa microwave-nuked leftovers: DT Chuck Darby, LB Ryan Nece, CB/S Dwight Smith (CB Brian Kelly was released midseason).  

There are quite a few good players on that list.  The roster of presumable "keepers", starting with Marinelli's speciality, the defensive line:

Dewayne White, when healthy, has shown the ability to consistently get at the passer--though he does it more with size and strength and technique than sheer speed.  To be honest, he reminds me quite a bit of Robert Porcher.  The difference is that Porcher manned the left side, where he could square off against slower right tackles who couldn't keep pace with his speed.  White was being asked to fill the Dwight Freeney/Simeon Rice role in Marinelli's Tampa 2, where he often did well anyway.   Cliff Avril, the OLB/DE 'tweener that some saw as a 3-4 blitzing OLB (see Woodley, Lamar), didn't get much time early.  But late in the season, he consistently showed the edge speed tenacity, and awareness to sack the quarterback.  Believe it or not, Cliff Avril led all NFL rookies in sacks in 2008, with five, along with 18 solo tackles, 5 assists, 4 forced fumbles and 1 recovery.  He did this despite starting only 4 games.  The fact of the matter is, the kid's a player.  Andre Fluellen, on the other hand, barely saw the field until the bitter end, but when he did I noticed something.  Andre Fluellen was bringing guys down in the secondary for eight yard gains.  He was forcing running backs out of bounds.  He was wrapping up wideouts on WR screens, after said WRs juked the corners.  He wasn't ever collapsing the pocket or throwing guys around, but Fluellen-at 296 pounds mind you--was frequently the second or third guy in on every tackle, everywhere on the field.  That speaks volumes about A) his level of effort, and B) his athleticism.  Five-O is a DE/DT, who hasn't seen the field much, but we've heard lots about him in practice.  There's no doubt that at 6'-5" and a lean 280, he passes the eyeball test.  Yet with moderate playing time--13 games, 2 starts--he only made a mild impact: 23 tackles and 1 sack.  That level of production would probably seem like "showing good flashes" for a rookie, but he's played two full seasons now and barely made a blip.  He was supposed to be a project from the get-go, but after two seasons you'd think we'd have a little bit more to go on.  Shaun Cody, the star of not-hit reality TV show "Super Agent", spent three whole seasons on the side of a milk carton only to suddenly make an impact in rotation: in 16 games and 4 starts, Cody racked up 25 solo tackles (for a DT!), 11 assists, and 3 passes defensed.  Those numbers approach his totals for his first three seasons combined.  Again, he certainly did not set the world on fire, especially for a second-round pick in his fourth year.  He should be a RFA this season--I'd think he'd be worth tendering an offer.  The rest of the lot (Darby, Langston Moore, Jared DeVries, Landon Cohen, Corey Smith, etc.)  are veteran backups with varying degrees of value, who may or may not have a place in the new regime.

Next, the much-beleaguered linebacking corps: Ernie Sims, who was rated as the #1 recruit in America coming out of high school, has all the physical tools (eyeball test!) and mental tenacity to be an outstanding weakside linebacker.  But within this Lions defense, from his rookie year forward he has increasingly seen himself as a one-man team.  Especially in 2008, he was freelancing like crazy, and doing so increasingly to the detriment of both his production and the defense as a whole.  By the end of this year, I don't think Sims was playing for Marinelli or Barry, he was just going out there and flying by the seat of his pants.  That's a disastrous failure in the Tampa 2, which relies heavily on linebackers carrying out their assignments to a T--but with the right coach and system, Sims has the physical talent and mental tenacity be a Pro Bowler.  2008 second-rounder Jordon Dizon?  He's a total mystery.  Both Marinelli and Millen wanted Dizon, but it was obvious from the get-go that Millen thought he was drafting a Day One plug-in starter at MLB, and Marinelli thought he was getting a backup strong-side LB who could claim the starting SSLB job by the end of the season, and then be slowly tutored over the next offseason and regular season in the mysterious ninja art of the Tampa 2 Mike.  Millen forced Marinelli to put Dizon in at MLB, which he did, but only at third-string.  Dizon saw almost no reps in the middle once the bullets went live, and the instant Millen was broomed out the door, Dizon was the backup SSLB.  His body type and production scream strong-sider, but he might not have the speed to keep up with TEs and slot WRs in the Tampa 2 short zones.  Of course, if he's not playing in the Tampa 2 . . . he could concievably play Mike, his college position, in a straight 4-3, but he's quite undersized for that.  He might be best suited to play ILB in a 3-4.  Unfortunately, all the rest of these guys (starting Mike Paris Lenon, Alex Lewis, Ryan Nece, and Anthony Cannon) all fit the same mold: varyingly athletic, uniformly undersized (Lenon's the giant of the group at 235 lbs.), all veteran backups with varying degrees of value who may or may not have a place--as special teamers--in the new system.

Now, the roundly lambasted defensive secondary: Leigh Bodden came to the Lions with much fanfare: the guy we got for departed he-beast Shaun "Big Baby" Rogers.  Bodden was sort of an odd fit; a talented cover corner with ball skills, but with the frame and attitude to hit people.  A traditional Tampa 2 corner needs only to blanket a reciever for 5-7 yards, and then be strong in run support; Bodden's best talents weren't of much use.  He struggled in the system early on, and many fans labelled him a bust.  But towards the end of the season it became obvious that Bodden was the best corner the Lions had had in a long time--you just couldn't see it due to the system he played in, and the fact that every other spot on the field was a soft spot for opposing offenses.  Why throw at Bodden when you can run for 5.1 yards a carry, or throw at a green backup like former Mr. Irrelevant Ramzee Robinson? Daniel Bullocks has shown good speed and awareness at the strong safety spot; he's also shown he both loves to hit people and is good at hitting.  Third on the team with 94 tackles in (64 solo), I think he's going to be a solid piece of the puzzle for years to come.   After being drafted in the second round in 2007, Gerald Alexander showed an impressive tool set, awareness, and the makings of an outstanding free safety (even while filling in at the strong side).  I don't know what happened in the offseason, but Alexander looked completely lost this preseason--he lost his starting gig to Dwight Smith and then went down for the year with an injury in Week 5.  Who knows which Gerald Alexander will report to 2009 camp?  Travis Fisher has, to me, always been a very good nickel back and an awful starting corner.  He's got great ball skills, but has neither the deep speed, nor size and strength, to consistently cover starting wideouts in the NFL.  You can see this in his career stats--his first two years, in the Rams' corner rotation, he had 14 passes defensed and six picks.  He's had 18 PD and 3 INT in the five years since, as he's repeatedly been pressed into starting duty.  I think he'll find a way to contribute in the next regime.  I'd do the "The Rest of These Guys" roundup . . . but between injury and attrition, that's just Keith Smith.

So . . . now what?

It's clear to me that the next coach must either be a defensive coach with a strong track record (e.g., Spagnuolo or Schwartz), or be an offensive coach who brings along a DC with excellent credentials.  Moreover, that coach needs to bring in a system that matches the talent.  It's easy to look at other Tampa Two disciples, but even though I don't think "the system" was the problem, I think the defensive players are going to more easily buy into a passionate coach with an aggressive scheme.  Look at what happened in Tampa: Tony Dungy walked softly but carried a big stick, preached discipline and coached his reactive zone defense for years and years--and when they brought in firebrand Jon Gruden, the whole team stepped it up to the next level.  I think that an aggressive, blitzing 4-3 would be the best fit for this talent.  With all the aggressive, undersized linebackers, and the defensive line that--poorly or not--was built to rush the passer without help from the rest of the defense, it seems like setting the front seven to attack, and allowing Leigh Bodden and the young safeties to hold down the back end, seems like it's going to be a lot more effective than setting the back seven to 'soft zone' mode and hoping that the medicore pass rush prevents Tarvaris Jackson from actually reminding people of Donovan McNabb.

As a reminder, I'll be breaking down each of the rumored candidates--including deposed Jets HC Eric Mangini!-- in upcoming posts.  Thanks to all who've taken time to read so far!

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