The Watchtower: Lions vs. Rams

Finally.

The Lions host the St. Louis Rams on Sunday, and all the months of half-informed, befuddled claptrap about the Lions “regressing” or “taking a step back” or having “discipline problems” or whatever will but up against the hard reality of the Detroit Lions taking the field and playing honest-to-God competitive football.

The baseless “regression” hogwash that floated throughout the diaspora has been logically debunked, most spectacularly by Nate Washuta of Holy Schwartz! and Jeremy Reisman at Detroit OnLion. Now, the Lions have a chance to physically debunk it, by playing four quarters of great football against a team that’s served as a benchmark for Jim Schwartz’s Lions twice before.

It was against the Rams that the Lions suffered the most obnoxious defeat of the 2009 campaign: the Rams’ 17-10 win at Ford Field was their only win of the season, the only “W” standing in between them and repeating the Lions’ 2008 feat.

It was against the Rams that the Lions enjoyed their most emphatic win of the 2010 season: a 44-6 romp that not only answered the question of which team’s turnaround was further along, but served as a desperately-needed release for apoplectic Lions fans; it was a laugher in every sense of the word.

Now, somehow, the stakes are exactly the same: a loss to the lowly Rams would be again be a gut-punch, a convincing win all the proof we need that everything is going to be alright.

Scott Linehan vs. Jeff Fisher

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	JF	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	TEN	30th	27.4	7.27	4.55	20	-21%	6.10	-15%	5.63	20%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	TEN	29th	26.3	6.84	4.22	24	21%	5.03	-15%	5.05	37%

Scott Linehan has faced off against Jeff Fisher twice before: in 2005, as the offensive coordinator of the Dolphins under Nick Saban, and the season before, as architect of the Vikings offense. The ‘04 Vikings were a powerful unit, ranked 6th in the NFL in scoring. They averaged 7.16 yards per pass attempt, and 4.71 yards per carry on the ground—both figures second-best in the NFL.

The Titans were not, as they say, in their glory in these days. In 2004, the Titans were ranked 30th (3rd-worst) in the NFL in scoring defense. They allowed an average of 27.4  points per game, 7.27 yards per pass attempt and 4.55 yards per carry.

Surprisingly, Linehan’s Vikings only scored 20 points against the Titans that day, 21% below their season average. They also held the Vikings to 6.1 YpA, 15% below their season average. The Vikings, however, ran at will: 5.63 YpC, a 20% boost above their already-stout 4.71 season average. Further, it didn’t really matter: the Titans’ offense could only muster a lousy three points; the Vikings didn’t have to put up pinball numbers to win comfortably.

In 2005, the Titans at least managed an offensive touchdown: Billy Volek hit Drew Bennett for a 55-yard score in the fourth quarter. But 10 points couldn’t match the Dolphins’ 24. Linehan’s Dolphins scored 21% more points than their season average against Fisher’s Titans, and again ran wild: 5.05 YpC, a 37% boost over their 2005 norm.

Interestingly, the YpA depression was exactly the same as in 2004: 15%. So we have two contests between these two coaches, with two different teams running the same offensive system against the same defensive system. In both cases, there was a major talent gap: the 2004 and 2005 Titans defenses were terrible overall, the 2005 Dolphins were average, and the 2004 Vikings were excellent.

We have only two games to work with, and the scoring differentials weren’t consistent. But the passing depression was exactly 15% both times, and the running boost was significant both times. I'm willing to declare: when facing Jeff Fisher/Jim Schwartz defenses of poor quality, Scott Linehan offenses tend to pass less effectively, and run much more effectively, than their season averages.

Brian Schottenheimer vs. Gunther Cunningham

Shot

Ornk

PgG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

PpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

NYJ

12th

23

6

4.8

DET

19th

23.1

6.75

4.51

24

6%

8.62

45%

3.67

-24%

The last time the Lions faced Brian Schottenheimer, I went on one of my most ridiculous flights of if-then fancy. Not only did I play telephone with Schottenheimer’s mentors and influences, going all the way back to Sid Gillman, I went to ridiculous lengths to construct a narrative from the data I cobbled together. The result? Durr Sharks.

From that original Watchtower, I pointed out:

If there were no systemic advantage or disavantage, the expectation for the Jets’ offense against the Lions’ defense would be 24-27 points.

The Jets needed an overtime field goal to get there, but 24 points is exactly what they scored. That field goal pushed the points delta from –7% to +6%,  to go with a whopping 45% increase in YpA. The Lions, surprisingly, held up very well against the Jets’ bruising running attack, holding them to just 3.67 YpA (-27%) . . . fat lot of good it did them.

That the Jets had the 12th-best offense, and the Lions the 19th-best defense, and they did such a fantastic job of holding down such a powerful running attack (very much unlike the rest of the season). The Jets met scoring expectations, but only because they dragged it out into overtime. Their YpA was extraordinarily high; I’d be surprised if Mark Sanchez equalled that mark in any other game. Of course, he was helped tremendously by two 74- and 52-yard bombs;  subtract those two throws and Schottenheimer’s Jets only netted 5.68 yards per attempt.

The bottom line here is that it seems as though there may be a mild systemic advantage for Jim Schwartz defenses against Brian Schottenheimer offenses, especially against the run. However, I got burned really badly when speculating on Schottenheimer before, and now we’re dealing with a completely different team.

Conclusion

I’m not doing mitigating/augmenting influences this time; we have no strong statistical trends and no data from this season to work with, either. This might also be the most incestuous game I’ve ever Watchtowered, too: Schwartz, of course, coached under Fisher in Tennessee for years, and Gunther Cunningham worked with Brian Schottenheimer (and his father) in Kansas City.

All of these coaches know each other (and each other’s schemes) very well; there’s going to be a lot of chess-matchery going down. But in this battle of student and master—or, should I say, mentor and Grandmaster—the student is playing with quite a few more pieces.

The Rams have two strong running backs and a great pass-rushing defensive line. They also have a young quarterback who’s still more potential than reality, and a bevy of talented new faces in the secondary. They don’t have any real receivers, or an offensive line worth mentioning.

The injuries to the Lions’ secondary make me wonder if this will be a shootout, but I can’t believe the Rams’ offense will be consistent enough to string several scoring drives together. Based on last year’s Lions offensive output and pass rush, plus the Rams’ profound awfulness and in-progress recovery therefrom, I see the most likely outcome as a 32-17 Lions win. As a corrolary, watch to see if the Lions’ systemic advantage in running the ball, and disadvantage passing the ball comes into play.

I can't pretend this is a mathematically derived anything, and so have very low confidence in this projection. AFTER this game, we’ll have a pretty clear idea on whether or not Gunther really does have the drop on his homeboy’s kid, and whether the student truly has become the Grandmaster. Going into it, I’m going with my gut.

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watchtower Review: Lions vs. Jets

Well, last week’s Watchtower had an obvious error:

My instincts tell me that a team the Packers shut out at home won’t put up 24-27 against this defense in front of a sold-out Ford Field. Despite all the ways I could be proven wrong, I’m going to go with the data and my gut. The most likely outcome of the game is a 17-13 Lions win.

Durr Sharks?

Durr Sharks.

On the positive side, this is only the second game I’ve been wrong enough on to actually get the winner incorrect.  On the negative side, damn.  I’ll admit, I did not think Sanchez had that just-before-halftime bomb in him.  Not only did it unquestionably deflate the crowd, and reverse the tide of momentum as they went into the lockers, it also accounted for a huge percentage of the Jets’ offense that day.  That pass was the difference between 336 yards passing and 262 yards passing.  It was the difference between 8.62 YpA and 6.89 YpA.  It was the difference between 23 points and 16 points.  It was the difference in the game.

If we assume that the 2004-2005 Chargers provide a representative sample of Brian Schottenheimer’s schematic and playcalling tendencies, the Jets’s offense will either meet—or vastly underperform—expectations against Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3 defense, depending on which phase of the offense the Lions attack. Given the recent success of the Lions’ pass rush and secondary, I expect the Lions to attack the pass—and therefore, I project the Jets to score 10-13 points. Unfortunately, because we’re working off of a possibly fallacious assumption—the 2004-2005 Chargers’s offense being interchangeable with the 2010 Jets—I have very low confidence in this projection. If there were no systemic advantage or disavantage, the expectation for the Jets’ offense against the Lions’ defense would be 24-27 points.

Okay so.  The assumption has been proven fallacious.  [[ Martyball == Brianball ]] returns false.  Looks like either there’s no systemic advantage or disadvantage for Gunther against Brian Schottenheimer, or that one lapse in coverage threw everything out of whack.  Either way, this half gets a grade of FAIL.

With no systemic advantage or disadvantage, expectations for the Lions’ offense versus the Jets’ defense would be set at 17-21 points. However, if we apply this perceived disadvantage when facing Rex Ryan defenses, I project the Lions will score 15-17 points. I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

This is not a big surprise; the only data point for Linehan against Ryan was the 2007 Rams, after they’d lost Steven Jackson and anyone else who had any shot of being a productive offensive football player.  The only reasons I considered a possible advantage in effect were: A) how mediocre the Ravens’ defense was that season, and B) how thoroughly said defense scoured the Earth clean of Gus Frerotte on that day.

Lessons Learned:

Seems like I have to keep learning this one, but: if you have very low confidence in your analysis because of sample size or mitigating factors, do not roll with it anyway because it sounds right.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york jets,rex ryan,brian schottenheimer,jim schwartz,scott linehan,gunther cunningham

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Jets

The Jets are coming off of an embarrassing loss at home.  The Lions are coming off of an ugly victory at home.  The Jets are a national media darling, a preseason Super Bowl contender coming off an improbable run to the AFC Championship.  The Lions are a national media whipping boy; if they’re ever mentioned, it’s as a punchline.  The 5-2 Jets are a game behind the Patriots in the AFC East, and need a win to keep pace.  The 2-5 Lions are effectively three games behind the Packers and Bears, likelyplaying for nothing more than pride.

Brian Schottenheimer vs. Gunther Cunningham

Gil	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
SDC	KCC	3rd	27.9	7.46	4.16	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	34	10.22	0	4.10	1-0	1-7
SDC	KCC	3rd	27.9	7.46	4.16	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	24	7.48	1	4.76	4-1	2-17
SDC	KCC	5th	26.1	6.65	4.46	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	28	8.07	1	3.77	2-1	0-0
SDC	KCC	5th	26.1	6.65	4.46	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	7	4.88	1	4.00	1-1	1-8
NYJ	DET	12th	22.7	5.95	4.84	23rd	22.4	7.13	4.79

In prior Watchtowers, I’ve struggled sometimes to distinguish between a coordinator and their mentor.  Bears DC Rod Marinelli is a slavish disciple of Monte Kiffin’s Tampa 2; schematically, Marinelli and Kiffin are interchangeable.  I can then fairly translate Scott Linehan’s success against one to his success against the other.  On the other end of the spectrum, Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians learned under everyone from Ken Whisenhunt to Butch Davis to Bear Bryant (!).  With Brian Schottenheimer, there’s an obvious mentor: his father and longtime boss, Marty.  However, the obvious avatar is a false one.

Brian Schottenheimer didn't learn offense by studying at his father’s knee; didn’t kneel before the altar of the run-first offense they call Martyball.  No, Brian Schottenheimer learned offense by playing for Steve Spurrier.  According to an excellent piece by Thomas George at NFL.com, Schottenheimer displayed an astonishing level of self-awareness for a college kid.  After playing quarterback at Kansas for a year, he realized he’d never play in the pros—so he transferred to Florida, with the intention of becoming a three-time All-American clipboard holder.

Schottenheimer then worked as an assistant under Dick Vermeil in St. Louis, Marty at Kansas City, Paul Pasqualoni at Syracuse, and Paul Hackett at USC.  Finally, he got his first full-fledged quarterbacks coach gig, as part of Marty’s Redskins staff.  Unfortunately, it lasted only one year—when Marty was then broomed to make way for . . . Steve Spurrier.  If that’s not ironic enough for you, that second stop—“Marty at Kansas City?”  Yeah, guess who was standing on the sidelines with him, running the defense?  None other than Gunther Cunningham.  I’m sure these men know each other very well, personally and professionally.

Schotty the Younger followed his father to San Diego, where for four seasons he served as quarterbacks coach.  He mentored both Drew Brees and Philip Rivers there, earning him a reputation as a QB groomer.  For 2006, new Jets coach Eric Mangini hired Brian to his first offensive coordinatorship; it’s here where I’d prefer start Brian’s track record as a schemer and playcaller.

Unfortunately, Gunther Cunningham hasn’t faced Brian Schottenheimer since then.  I thought about using data from Spurrier’s time in the NFL, but when I looked at the schemes and philosophies of the Jets offense and Spurrier’s, I realized that the end result is closer to Martyball than Fun n’ Gun—the Jets have almost perfect 50/50 run-pass balance, and they’re much better at running than passing.  So, with caveats in place, we go to work:

In 2004, the Chargers had a juggernaut of an offense.  With Drew Brees having his breakout year (3,159 yards, 27 TDs, 7 INTs), and a 25-year-old LaDanian Tomlinson rolling everybody, San Diego was the 3rd-most potent offense in the NFL (27.9 ppg).  Gunther’s Kansas City Chiefs (under Dick Vermeil, another Brian S. mentor) were a miserable 29th, allowing 27.2 points per game.  It went about as you’d expect, with San Diego scoring 34 points, averaging 10.22 yards per attempt, and gaining 4.10 yards per carry.

But Gunther had some tricks up his sleeve for his old boss in the second meeting.  This time, he essentially surrendered the run (4.78 YpC), and attacked the pass, forcing 2 sacks, 4 fumbles, and an interception, lowering YpA to 7.48, and holding the San Diego offense to just 24 points.  It’s not often that the 3rd-ranked offense faces the 29th-ranked defense and scores less than its average for the year . . .

In 2005, the gap between the two units was much smaller.  The Chargers were the 5th-best offense, scoring 26.1 PpG.  The Chiefs’ D was vastly improved: ranked 16th, allowing 20.3 PpG—a full touchdown per game less than the year before.  The results of the first matchup, however, were more like the the first meeting in 2004: 28 points for the Chargers.  They gained 341 yards through the air at a 8.07 YpA clip—though Tomlinson’s 17-for-69 effort dragged the Chargers down to a meager 3.77 team YpC.  Again, these results exactly meet expectations when the 5th-ranked offense faces the 16th-ranked defense: the O does a little bit better than usual.

In the second matchup, however, Cuther returned to his prior strategy: attack the pass.  Brees completed just 18-of-33 passes (54.5%), for a meager 161 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT.  He was sacked once (by Jared Allen), and receiver Eric Parker lost a fumble.  Holding the passing attack to just 4.88 YpA, the vaunted Chargers’ offense scored only seven points.

From this data, the inescapable conclusion is that regardless of talent level, Marty Schottenheimer’s run-heavy offenses meet expectations against Gunther Cunningham’s defense—when the passing game is exceptionally effective.  Marty Schottenheimer offenses perform profoundly below expectations against Gunther Cunningham defenses when the passing game is ineffective.

In 2010, Brian Schottenheimer’s Jets offense is ranked 12th in the NFL, scoring 22.7 points per game.  The Lions’ defense is ranked 23rd, allowing 22.4 PpG.  The Jets have only mustered 5.95 YpA—but their running game, featuring LaDanian Tomlinson (!), is bowling people over to the tune of 4.84 YpC.  Yes, on the average.  Yes, for the whole season.  Meanwhile, the Lions are allowing 4.79 YpC—doubtlessly the Jets will be able to run.  They may be able to pass, too, considering the Lions 7.13 allowed YpA.

If we assume that the 2004-2005 Chargers provide a representative sample of Brian Schottenheimer’s schematic and playcalling tendencies, the Jets’s offense will either meet—or vastly underperform—expectations against Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3 defense, depending on which phase of the offense the Lions attack.  Given the recent success of the Lions’ pass rush and secondary, I expect the Lions to attack the pass—and therefore, I project the Jets to score 10-13 points.  Unfortunately, because we’re working off of a possibly fallacious assumption—the 2004-2005 Chargers’s offense being interchangeable with the 2010 Jets—I have very low confidence in this projection.  If there were no systemic advantage or disavantage, the expectation for the Jets’ offense against the Lions’ defense would be 24-27 points.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Obviously, there’s a lot of ifs, ands, and buts in the above paragraph—more than I usually allow myself.  But seeing what the Packers did to the Jets’ offense on Sunday, and knowing the way the Lions’ defensive line is playing, and knowing what Gunther can do against offenses he knows well, I have to believe that they go after Sanchez hard.  The success he had against Marty and Brian’s Chargers offenses—which were much better than this Jets unit—leads me to believe that’s the correct ballpark for the Jets’ offensive production.  Then again, if Tomlinson and/or Greene can really get rolling, perhaps the Lions’ defense can’t get off the field on third down, and the baseline expectations will be what goes down.  I really don’t see anything in between; either I’m right and the Jets are held to less than two TDs, or I’m wrong and the Jets score 24 or more.

Scott Linehan vs. Rex Ryan

Lin	Few	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
STL	BAL	28th	16.4	5.63	3.78	22nd	24.0	7.26	2.84	3	5.80	5	2.48	1-1	4-11
DET	NYJ	6th	25.2	5.95	3.63	2nd	15.7	6.17	3.43

There’s only one data point for this matchup, and it’s profoundly depressing.  Linehan faced off against Rex Ryan in 2007—without Steven Jackson.  Linehan’s 28th-ranked offense was scraping together 16.4 PpG; even Ryan’s worse-than-usual 2007 unit was way, way more than it could handle.  Despite being ranked only 22nd itself, and allowing a rather healthy 24.0 PpG, the Ravens’ unit stomped the Rams into the ground.  They held a committee of Travis Minor, Brian Leonard, and Antonio Pittman to just 2.48 YpC.  They allowed only 5.48 YpA, sacked Gus Frerotte four times and intercepted him five times.

Given the paucity of data, I'm loathe to conclude anything, but that’s just too strong of an effect.  There’s no way the 22nd-ranked defense should dominate the 28th-ranked defense like that, unless there’s a schematic advantage.  What I’m saying here is, the Rams were really, really, really bad—but not that bad.  Therefore, I’m going to conclude that given lesser talent, Scott Linehan’s balanced offense is disproportionately disrupted by Rex Ryan’s hyperaggressive 3-4 defense.   Sacks and interceptions profoundly depress scoring output.  The effect is unknown with greater or equal talent.

The 2010 Lions are the 6th-ranked offense in the NFL, averaging a robust 25.2 points per game.  Amazingly, they’re doing it while averaging a mediocre 5.95 YpA, and less-than-mediocre 3.63 YpC.  Meanwhile, the Jets are the #2 defense in the NFL, allowing just 15.7 points per game, 6.17 YpA, and 3.43 YpC.  With no systemic advantage or disadvantage, expectations for the Lions’ offense versus the Jets’ defense would be set at 17-21 points.  However, if we apply this perceived disadvantage when facing Rex Ryan defenses, I project the Lions will score 15-17 points.  I have low-to-medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Thanks to just the one data point, this is a pretty shaky conclusion.  Further, it’s tough to tell just how bad the 2007 Rams were—that Ravens game was arguably the lowest point of their entire year, and some initial decent performances brought up their yearly average.  Nevertheless, those Rams took an epic pounding; there’s a very real chance that Ryan fools Stafford with some looks, and the Jets get two, three, four, or more picks.  If Stafford or Best step up and have a massive day, the Lions might be able to put more than what I’ve projected on the table—but I don’t expect that.  These numbers are likely realistic.

Conclusion:

The data that tells me Gunther knows how to stop his former boss (and his son, a former co-worker).  My instincts tell me that a team the Packers shut out at home won’t put up 24-27 against this defense in front of a sold-out Ford Field.  Despite all the ways I could be proven wrong, I’m going to go with the data and my gut.  The most likely outcome of the game is a 17-13  Lions win.  As a corrollary, I have a sneaking suspicion that a special teams or defensive touchdown may either widen the gap for the Lions, or flip the script in the Jets’ favor.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new york jets,rex ryan,brian schottenheimer,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan,matthew stafford,mark sanchez

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Detroit Lions Hire Jim Schwartz: The Afterglow

It's bizarre; after all the ridiculousness of the Mayhew/Lewand introduction, the boo birds, the jeers, the wait-and-seers, the media silence, the furtive hunt for scraps of info . . . after all this, we wake up today with a new head coach.  His name is Jim Schwartz, I call him the Grandmaster, and he brings an extensive and nigh-on-bulletproof resume to the table.  He's worked for Bill Belicheck as a scout and film analyst, and he's worked for Jeff Fisher as his right-hand man.  In an industry full of, frankly, glorified gym teachers, Jim Schwartz is a man who could have been a professor, an economist, a politician, or an investor--but instead he followed his passion, and he's built and overseen one of the premier NFL defenses of the past decade.

Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand can be ridiculed for being part of the Millen fiasco.  They can be questioned for having little demonstrable experience.  But--without knowing what the future will hold--they can't be mocked for how they handled this hire.  As they said they would, they kept a tight lock on information--yet wordlessly presented each finalist to the media to see how they handled themselves.   They interviewed many possible candidates, yet never tipped their hand.  It became clear after a while that even tapped-in reporters like Adam Schefter were just guessing as to what their next move would be.  And when the iron was hot, they struck.

It's impossible to say right now how this hire will turn out.  There are many 'fans' who are saying "Great, the Lions hired somebody.  If he was willing to come here, he MUST suck!"  I saw the two-inch-letter headline on the Free Press today: "LIONS ROLL DICE WITH ANOTHER UNTESTED COACH".  But Schwartz is a legit candidate who's interviewed for several other jobs in the past couple of years.  Now if the hire had been Jerry Gray, or, to an extent, Todd Bowles, then we as fans would have a real beef.  I can tell you that if Mayhew had quickly hired a former teammate who'd never been a coordinator, or even given serious consideration as a head coach by any other team, I'd be fuming right now.  For another, if Mayhew had pulled the trigger on the Grandmaster the instant he interviewed, I'd be wondering if we really got the right guy.  The fact that they did a second interview with another candidate--and a first interview with another--after Schwartz's big day on Monday, tells me they didn't just settle for the first guy who didn't show up for the interview drunk or naked.

Now . . . the coordinator watch is on.  This will tell us a lot more about the eventual X-and-O philosophies the Lions will utilize in 2009 then looking at Schwartz's past and extrapolating forward.  PFT is reporting that Broncos QB coach Jeremy Bates (who called the plays for the Broncos last year) is one serious candidate for OC, and Jets OC Brian Schottenheimer is the other.  I know Schottenheimer is a very well-respected young coach; in fact he's a finalist to be hired as the new head coach in New York--but something tells me the Jets won't fire the Mangenius just to then hire his top lieutenant.  Either way, we see offenses that feature one-cut power run games mixed with agressive downfield passing--exactly the kind of combination that suits both our talent, and what we as fans of NFC North football want to see from our team.

There is no word yet on potential defensive coordinators; most of the bright lights of Schwartz's old staff are also candidates to replace him in Tennessee.  Keep an eye on Titans DB coach Chuck Cecil--yes, THAT Chuck Cecil.  He would bring the fire and emotion that I said I'd like to see at DC if Schwartz was hired.  If Schwartz is the mastermind and Cecil is the fiery leader, I think this unit will respond like crazy.

The wait for news is over.  Long live the wait . . .

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