The Hidden Detroit Lions Offense: 1st and 2nd Down

The Lions lost to the Falcons on Sunday, due to an astonishingly poor performance by the offense, and particularly Matthew Stafford. Many noticed the Lions seemed to be “in a lot of third-and-longs,” and blamed the lack of a power running game that could keep the Lions offense on schedule.

It’s been my contention the Lions use their backs in nontraditional—but effective—ways. If they can run for three or so yards on first down, that gives Stafford and the 7+ yard-per-attempt passing attack two attempts to get seven yards. If they can mix in the screens and draws on which Best and Morris are varyingly effective, they can move the ball very well and score points in bunches.

This has been empirically obvious: through five weeks the Lions had the #2 offense in the NFL, racking up an impressive 31.8 points per game. Subsequently, I have been directing all parties inquiring RE: fat guards and white running backs to talk to that statistical hand.

However, something is not adding up. Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams combined for over five YpC against the Falcons, yet indeed the Lions were constantly facing second- and third-and-long.

Chart?

Chart.

1ST DOWN	RUN	MM	KW	NB	PASS	CJ	NB	BP	TS	WH
22/8/6.59	12/2/3.8	7/0/2.0	5/2/6.4	0/0/0.0	10/6/9.9	5/3/16.2	1/0/0.0	1/1/9.0	1/1/6.0	1/1/8.0
2ND DOWN	RUN	MM	KW	NB	PASS	CJ	NB	BP	TS	WH
20/7/5.3	7/2/6.6	3/1/12.3	2/0/-1.0	2/1/5.0	13/5/4.62	4/1/6.25	1/0/1.0	3/2/5.0	2/2/13.0	0/0/0.0
TOTAL	RUN	MM	KW	NB	PASS	CJ	NB	BP	TS	WH
42/15/5.98	19/4/4.8	10/1/5.1	7/2/4.43	2/1/5.0	23/11/6.91	9/4/11.8	2/0/1.0	4/3/6.0	3/3/10.7	1/1/8.0

The Hidden Game of Football is a seminal book which tops every serious football analyst’s reading list (but which I still haven’t read). In it, so I am told, the authors outline a new way of defining a successful football play. On first down, a successful play gains four yards. On second down, a successful play gains half the remaining distance to converting the first down. On third down, a successful play converts first down. This theory informs the analysis at awesome websites like Football Outsiders and Advanced NFL Stats.

The chart above is a breakdown of the Lions first- and second-down plays against the Falcons. The first number in each box is the number of plays in that category. The number after the first slash is the number of “successful” plays, and the number after the second slash is the average yards-per-play rate of categorical plays. So.

The Lions faced 22 first-and-10 situations Sunday (including plays wiped out by penalties). They gained at least four yards 8/22 times, and averaged 6.59 yards per play. That sounds kinda okay-ish until you look at the run/pass breakdown: the Lions ran on first down 12 of 22 times, were successful twice, and averaged 3.83 YpC. This meshes with my “3-to-4 yards on first down is okay” theory until we go a little deeper.

Maurice Morris ran seven times on first down, never successfully, and averaged 2.0 yards per carry.

Keiland Williams fared a little better. He gained 4+ yards twice on five carries, including a long one that swelled the average up 6.4 YpC. However, neither could compare to the first-down passing game, which was successful six of ten attempts and averaged 9.9 YpA.

Megatron was targeted five times on first down, successfully three times, for a 16.2 average (yes, the 54-yard touchdown was on first down). Non-Megatron receivers were successful on 3 of 4 targets, for 5.75 YpA.

On second down, things were not much better. The running game chewed up half of the yards needed for conversion just twice on seven carries, though the YpC was an impressive 6.57. Part of that is due to a long run by MoMo, but part of it is the “on schedule” effect: the Lions average distance-to-conversion on second down was eight yards. This includes sacks, penalties, etc., but those count in the game, too. The Lions simply aren’t getting enough yards on first down, and it’s making second down much harder to convert.

The Lions running game was successful on first- and second-down just 4 of 19 carries, despite an apparently-excellent 4.84 YpC. The passing game was a better-but-still-not-great 11 of 23 plays for 6.91 YpA. Here’s the interesting bit, though: non-Megatron receivers were successful on 7 of 11 first- and second-down targets, for 6.09 YpA.

This points towards something else I’ve been saying: Stafford is pressing. He’s trying to force it to Calvin (see CJ’s second-down success rate above).  Despite the totally ineffective running game, when Stafford spreads the ball around the offense works. I’m wrong about Maurice Morris being a solid first- and second-down tailback, but I’m right that if Stafford does his job that doesn’t matter.

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Detroit Lions Offensive Line Analysis: Part I

In the 1993 offseason, the Lions attempted to compensate for the tragic death of All-Pro guard Eric Andolsek—and freak paralysis of G Mike Utley—by signing three free agent linemen: Dave Lutz, Bill Fralic, and Dave Richards.  I clearly remember the newspaper headline that echoed a quote from a coach: “Lions Add ‘900 Pounds of Beef’.”  The gambit didn’t work, and the Lions have been frantically sandbagging the offensive line ever since.

Those who’ve been reading since the beginning might remember that I wrote about that memory last spring, while contemplating the additions of Gosder Cherilus, George Foster, Jon Jansen, Ephraim Salaam, and Daniel Loper over the preceding year.  Four of those five are gone—yet I’ve noted several times this season that the offensive line is better than you think it is, especially in pass protection.  Many have rampantly bashed Cherilus, as well as usual suspects like Backus and Raiola all year long.  Many and called for drastic action to overhaul the offensive line, theoretically to protect the Lions’ investment in Matthew Stafford.  Few, however, seem to realize that the Lions’ O-line is keeping its quarterbacks clean as well as any in the NFL.

Sean Jensen, Bears writer for the Chicago Sun-Times, posted the latest “New York Life Protection Index” stats, while lamenting the Bears’ position on that table (dead last).  This metric, per the creators:

“ . . . was created by sports information leader STATS to provide a composite gauge for this undervalued component of the game. While the New York Life Protection Index is calculated using a proprietary formula, the fundamentals are comprised of the length of a team’s pass attempts combined with penalties by offensive linemen, sacks allowed and quarterback hurries and knockdowns.”

Okay, so check out the New York Life Protection Index, and check out where the Lions rate: ninth.  Ninth?  Yes: ninth-best in the NFL, first-best in the NFC North.  Yes, in pass protection.  Yes, the Lions.  I’m tempted to crow about how all of my suspicions have been confirmed, and how my own eyes have been seeing the truth while all others’ have been clouded with lies and suspicion, and on and on and on, except . . .

The Colts are first.  The Colts, whose profound struggles on the offensive line are a matter of fact, are ranked #1 by this metric.  This reminds me of that year the Lions allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL, at least in part because Joey Harrington was throwing the ball into the stands on every third dropback.  Something similar has to be happening here with Peyton Manning and the Colts’ patchwork line . . . but how do we capture it?  Let’s examine another advanced offensive line metric, one that’s far less of a “black box.”

Football Outsiders’ Offensive Line Rankings feature a variety of interesting stats.  First and foremost, there’s Adjusted Line Yards, which their attempt to mathematically isolate yards gained because the offensive line got good push from yard gained because the running back broke a play open.  The mathematical methods Football Outsiders uses to isolate offensive line yards are detailed here, but for now let’s just see how the Lions stack up.

• Adjusted Line Yards: 3.25 per carry, ranked dead last in the NFL.
• Power Success: 59%, ranked 17th in the NFL.
• Stuffed: 25%, ranked 27th in the NFL.
• 2nd Level Yards: 1.00, ranked 25th in the NFL.
• Open Field Yards: 0.43, ranked 28th in the NFL.

So, the Lions’s offensive line isn’t doing great; it’s actually the worst run-blocking line in football.  Detroit running backs have the least daylight to work with of any in the NFL.  This, unlike the Colts being #1 in pass protection, jibes with what we’ve seen on the field.  But Football Outsiders’ ALY stat can drill down even deeper.  They’ve actually broken down the Adjusted Line Yards by gap: “A” gap (between center and either guard), left and right “B” gap (between guard and tackle), and “C” gap (outside tackle/between OT & TE).  Here’s what they came up with for the Lions:

		L END		L TACKLE		C/GUARD		R TACKLE		R END
RNK	TEAM	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk	ALY	Rnk
32	DET	4.65	13	3.7	25	3.33	30	2.73	32	1.61	32
-	NFL	4.31	-	4.19	-	4.06	-	4.03	-	4.06	-

This table has two rows: the Lions, and the NFL average.  Working from left to right, we see that runs to the outside of Jeff Backus, or between Backus and the tight end, get the benefit of slightly-above-average run blocking.  Runs between Backus and Sims have get below-average help from the line.  Runs on either side of Dominic Raiola get poor help from the offensive line, runs between Stephen Peterman and Gosder Cherilus are at a steep disadvantage to the rest of the NFL, and . . . well, just don’t run to the outside of Gosder.

This is both surprising and unsurprising.  First, remember when the Lions passed on Michael Oher to take Brandon Pettigrew?  Some subscribed to the notion that Pettigrew’s size and blocking would result in improved pass protection and running lanes anyway—getting “offensive line help” without actually drafting a lineman.  Football Outsiders’ stats show this is exactly what’s happening, which is surprising and exciting.  What isn’t surprising is the total lack of daylight in the A gaps.  Stephen Peterman has been playing hurt, and Lord do we ever see it here.  And Gosder?  I had no idea the Lions were struggling so much to run behind him.  These numbers are flatly appalling for a 6’-7”, 325-pound RT with a legendary mean streak.

Okay, so the left side of the Lions' line is average at run blocking, and the center and right side are butt-naked last in the NFL.  So how did the Lions end up with the ninth-best offensive line by the New York Life Protection Index?  Well, because that looked only at pass protection.  Well, what does Football Outsiders have to say about pass blocking?

Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR)/Sack Rate: Sack Rate represents sacks divided by pass plays, which include passes, sacks, and aborted snaps. It is a better measure of pass blocking than total sacks because it takes into account how often an offense passes the ball. Adjusted Sack Rate adds adjustments for opponent quality, as well as down and distance (sacks are more common on third down, especially third-and-long).

The Lions rank 4th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate, having allowed just 24 sacks while passing constantly against tough competition.  Above them are the Saints, the Giants, and . . . at number one . . . the Colts.  Okay, so this metric has its limitations, too—it’s still derived almost entirely from sacks.  Clearly, we can’t just measure pass protection by sacks allowed, because sacks are as often taken by quarterbacks as they are allowed by the offensive line.  Aaron Schatz ended the 2003 “Fun With Sacks” article where he conceived of Adjusted Sack Rate with the following plea:

Consider this a public request: If you have an idea for another statistic to measure pass blocking/pass rushing, please let me know. The never-ending quest for knowledge marches forward!

Coming up in Part II: we march.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jeff backus,rob sims,dominic raiola,stephen peterman,gosder cherilus,football outsiders,analysis

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