A Very Serious Talk: The Offensive Line

Okay, it's time to have a Very Serious Talk about the Lions' offensive line.

I've been reading a lot of stuff lately about the offensive line. Let's nail down some facts about last season, so we can move forward like grownups.

The Lions were bad at run blocking last year.

According to Football Outsiders' Adjusted Line Yards stat, the Lions had the 31st—2nd-worst—run-blocking unit in the NFL. This will not come as a shock to anyone who, you know, watched the Lions last year. Their 3.70 ALY was well off the league average of 4.08. Their Power Success rate (52%) was ranked 28th, and their Stuffed Percentage (21%) was 25th.

However, the raw YPC by by the Lions' running backs was 4.22; that's just off the NFL average of 4.31. That's the 19th-best pace in the league, packed tightly with a lot of other teams right around the average. Being mediocre at the second level (ranked 21st) and solid in the open field (ranked 14th) shows the Lions' motley crew of backs managed to make things happen on the rare occasions they had daylight.

The Lions weren't really trying to run block last year.

However, let's give that figure a little context. The Lions attempted passes more (666 times) and more often (62.9% of plays) than anyone else in the NFL. The Lions lined up in the shotgun 68% of the time, more than anyone else in the NFL. They carried the ball fewer times (356) than all but one team, and at the rarest rate (33.6) of any team. Though the Lions were undoubtedly going to be a pass-first team in 2011, they almost completely abandoned the traditional run game. Expecting them to be good at it doesn’t make sense.

Perhaps the Lions' interior line isn't comprised of mashers, and the Lions didn't change personnel address that in the offseason. But swapping Dominic Raiola out for a he-man road grader would be making the Lions better at what they did one-third of the time last year at the expense of what they did two-thirds of the time. That's just not smart.

Rob Sims will be better at run blocking this year.

As we saw in the guard Old Mother Hubbard, Rob Sims was one of the best pass-blocking guards in the NFL last season, but well below-average against the run. Sims intentionally added 20 pounds of quality weight from the end of the season to now, and he did it to shore up his anchoring against the run and interior pass rush:

“Last couple years, I’ve been playing really light -- a lot lighter than I’m used to playing, and I felt there were some parts of my game that were affected because of that,” he said. “Mainly, some of the stuff I do on the run and stuff like that, I just didn’t have that pop I was used to. It wasn’t I was just gorging myself and wanted to be 20 extra pounds out there, it’s just that we’ve been having some trouble keeping weight on me throughout the season ,so I wanted to start a little heavier and work my way down.”

Per Dave Birkett, Sims actually dropped below 300 pounds by the end of last season; that’s simply too light for today’s NFL, 68% shotgun notwithstanding. By getting back up to about 320, Sims should have much better luck cracking open seams for Leshoure and Best to pop through.

The Lions will run the ball more this year.

The Lions mostly abandoned the run once they lost Jahvid Best, had one glorious game of healthy Kevin Smith, and then abandoned the run again. Best, Smith, and Mikel Leshoure are all participating in OTAs, which is a fantastic sign. If all are healthy, expect the run game—and under-center snaps—to be a bigger part of the Lions’ playcalling. When you’re setting up to run block, you’ll be more successful at it.

Riley Reiff could provide an immediate boost, or not.

We know from the offensive tackle Old Mother Hubbard that Jeff Backus is an above-average left tackle. We know he began the season with a torn pectoral muscle, and played like it. We know that after the bye week, he played as well as any left tackle in the NFL. We know he tore a bicep against New Orleans in the playoffs; we know he’s supposed to be ready for training camp.

The question here isn’t whether Jeff Backus can play left tackle at a high level, it’s for how long he’ll be able. Ideally, Backus gets healthy and has a great season, and Riley Reiff beings to push him next offseason, or possibly the year after that. Maybe Reiff solidifies the right tackle spot for the second half of this season, and swings over to the left once

It doesn’t sound like that’s the plan, though. As Jim Schwartz said:

"He's a left tackle. He fits the criteria that you want at that position. He's big, tough, he's a former tight end and a three-time state wrestling champ (South Dakota). He comes from a great tradition of offensive linemen at Iowa. He's a good run blocker and a good pass protector. "Even though he is young and will still improve in certain areas, we're not drafting a guy that's a developmental player."

Wow, that sounds almost like he's planning on Reiff pushing Backus from Day One.

"We'll put them all out there and we'll play. Their play in training camp, in the OTAs and in the preseason, that will determine those things, not anything we are thinking right now."

Oh. So that right there is Jim Schwartz opening the competition for a spot  Jeff Backus has had on lockdown for 176 consecutive games. Moreover, it’s him throwing a pretty big bucket of cold water on the notion that Reiff is short-term right tackle help. It’s not to say he won’t moonlight there, of course, but the Lions view Reiff as their left tackle for the medium-, long-, and possibly even short run.

The question is, even if Reiff supplants Backus, will Reiff play any better than Backus? Maybe, maybe not. I couldn’t think of a segue, but Holy Schwartz! regressed PFF blocking grades against offensive tackle arm length and oh man is it worth a click.

Per Football Outsiders, the Lions ran behind Backus 20% of the time. That’s the fourth-highest rate in the NFL; only the Cardinals, Seahawks, Bengals, and Rams ran behind their left tackle more. With an ALY of 3.65, they were only 24th-most effective at running behind the LT, but the Lions clearly trusted Backus much more than the interior or the right side.

Oddly, the Lions were most effective when running behind the right tackle. At 4.22 ALY, they were 20th-best in the NFL, close to the 4.26 league average. So if Riley Reiff is to improve either left tackle spot, he’ll have to be more trustworthy than Jeff Backus all-around, OR the best run-blocker on the line, OR so much better at pass protection than Cherilus that the run blocking doesn’t matter.

The Lions are actually really really good at pass blocking.

I know many Lions fans still freak out about that time Julius Peppers beat Jeff Backus and injured Matthew Stafford, but the Lions dropped back 702 times and allowed only 36 sacks in 2011; that's an Adjusted Sack Rate of 5.9%. That's 10th-best in the NFL. Pro Football Focus graded the Lions at +35.0 in pass protection, 3rd-best in the NFL.

I know for many people pass protection starts and stops with a 6’-4,” 360-pound He-Man Hall of Fame Left Tackle who never ever gives up a sack, ever. But those guys come once or twice in a generation, if at all—and there are four other guys on the line, protecting four pass-rush gaps the left tackle never gets to. The fact is, the Lions do a very good job of keeping Matthew Stafford clean—even though Stafford is exposed more often than any other quarterback in the NFL.

We clear now?

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Centers

Last season, the Old Mother Hubbard assessment of the Lions’ center position was so dire I dropped some Thomas Hobbes in the introduction. Dominic Raiola, the Lions’ only center of note, showed severe signs of regression in 2010. Here’s how I summed it up:

Dominic Raiola had his worst season in years, and possibly ever. Lions tailbacks had zero room to run inside in 2010, and Raiola dances on the edge of disaster in pass protection. His value is partly in recognizing defenses and calling protections, but these grades point to a disturbingly rapid decline in pure performance.

In the shopping list, I said the Lions "cannot afford to assume Raiola will bounce back, and be fine for years to come," and that they "need to acquire an impact starting center for 2012 and beyond."

They didn't.

The good news is, Raiola did indeed bounce back. Let's look at his 2011 performace, as graded by Pro Football Focus:

The top-rated center was Houston’s Chris Myers, who had an incredible season in the middle of the Texans’ line. Myers’s +29.8 was best amongst all centers, and well above the average of +1.4. Most of that was powered by Myers’ stonking +25.8 in the run game; his pass-blocking mark was a pedestrian +3.7.

The worst-graded center was Denver’s J.D. Walton. His appalling –23.4 run block grade, paired with a not-great –5.3 pass block grade, dropped him to the basement of the NFL: 35th overall at –28.9

Dominic Raiola fared much better. His –4.2 overall grade was ranked 24th of 35; just a bit below the average of +1.4. He had the 5th-worst run-block grade at –10.2, and his 6 assessed penalties dragged his score down, too. However, Raiola had a fantastic season protecting Matthew Stafford: his +6.4 mark was 4th-best in the NFL, well above the +0.7 average.

This is a huge step up from 2010. Raiola was graded out at -15.2 overall, and just as bad against the pass as he was against the run. In 2010, he was graded negatively in 9 of 17 games; in 2011 he finished in the red in just 6 of 18. The best part is, he only had one game where he was graded any lower than -1.5: Week 6 against San Francisco, where his -4.7 run block sunk the Lions' efforts to control the game.

Statistically, Raiola allowed 4 sacks and 10 pressures. Raiola allowed one of those three every 81 snaps—on average, 14th-best in the NFL and just below the average of 85.6. I suspect this is because I’m going per snap and not per pass play, but I don’t have that figure to divide by. For those wondering, Advanced NFL Stats does have -EPA and -WPA for offensive lines, but only as a group, not individually.

For another "eyeball test," there's the B/R 1000, a project where the top talent evaluators and draftniks over at Bleacher Report grade out the top 1,000 players in the NFL. Their report on Raiola perfectly dovetails with what the PFF staff saw: B/R ranks Raiola the 23rd-best center in the NFL. If you want a true scout's evaluation of where Raiola's game is at, read that.

Of course, all of this ignores the hidden benefits Lions coaches and staff are quick to bring up whenever Raiola is mentioned. Raiola is phenomenal at reading defenses and adjusting protections; he makes the entire offense more effective by calling protections and feeding Matthew Stafford information.

Beyond that, there’s his on-field and off-field leadership. There’s a reason Raiola wears a “C” on his chest. When the Lions needed someone to tell them to grow up, Raiola was there.

Unfortunately, the backup situation remains unchanged. There’s no one behind Raiola, either in the short-term or long-term picture. The Lions are in the second year of what is likely a 2-5 year championship window, and betting Raiola can keep playing at this level for the duration is a bad bet.

If they want to draft Raiola’s long-term replacement, but don’t want him to learn on the job, this year is the year.

BOTTOM LINE: Dominic Raiola turned in a typical performance in 2011: one of the best pass-blocking centers in the NFL, one of the worst run-blocking centers in the NFL, and a true leader who earns his captaincy. After eleven years in the NFL, he still rolls without a legitimate backup, and the Lions must plan for the future now.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions must draft a talented long-term replacement for Raiola who can capably back up the center and guard positions.

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Old Mother Hubbard: The Centers

In his best-known work, the Leviathan, the English philosopher Thomas Hobbes wrote:

Whatsoever therefore is consequent to a time of war, where every man is enemy to every man, the same consequent to the time wherein men live without other security than what their own strength and their own invention shall furnish them withal. In such condition there is no place for industry, because the fruit thereof is uncertain: and consequently no culture of the earth; no navigation, nor use of the commodities that may be imported by sea; no commodious building; no instruments of moving and removing such things as require much force; no knowledge of the face of the earth; no account of time; no arts; no letters; no society; and which is worst of all, continual fear, and danger of violent death; and the life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.

“Solitary, poor, nasty, brutish and short” is an apt description for the Lions’ center play in 2010:

There’s only one center who was credited with any snaps for the Lions this season, and it’s Dominic Raiola. He was above-average in screen blocking (9th-best, in fact), and slightly below average in his penalty rating. Everything else was somewhere between “below average” and “way below average;” overall he was ranked 30th out of 34 centers.

On the other hand, Raiola only allowed 2 QB sacks and 1 QB hit, compared to NFL averages of 1.74 and 2.65, respectively. Given his massive rep total (over 1130 snaps), Raiola did a truly fine job of preventing quarterback sacks and hits. He allowed a sack or hit only once per every 380 snaps or so, making him seventh-best in the NFL.

How could it possibly be, then, that Raiola was graded so poorly in pass protection? Well, his 22 quarterback pressures allowed were second-most in the NFL. Even if we adjusted for his high rep count, Raiola’s pressure numbers are terrible; he had the fourth-worst rate in the NFL—an average of once every 52 snaps!

The picture his paints is of a center who is continually overmatched at the point of attack, but almost always prevents disaster. Remember the PFF “consistency bias,” as I’m calling it: a player constantly racking up minor dings is going to have a worse overall grade than a guy who’s mostly average, except for occasional catastrophic failure.

The strangest thing about Raiola’s grades is his inconsistency. In weeks 4, 13, 14, and 15, Raiola turned in very strong positive grades. In weeks 1, 5, and 10, he was weakly negative. Every other game netted poor, or very poor, grades for Raiola. Interestingly, he went on pronounced hot streaks: in weeks 2, 3, and 4, he had uncharacteristically positive pass-blocking grades, while in weeks 13, 14, and 15 he had great run-blocking marks (0.9, 3.1, and 2.9 respectively).

I looked at Raiola’s 2009 and 2008 performances; he had only three games with overall negative grades combined. To turn in nine “red” games this season indicates a dramatic decline. Now, we’ve seen players—especially offensive linemen—fluctuate wildly from year to year. This was his first year playing next to Rob Sims, and Stephen Peterman was clearly limited by multiple injuries this season. So, this may not be a real, permanent fall off the cliff. But, the Lions have no solid backup and no developmental prospects.

Bottom Line: Raiola had his worst season in years, and possibly ever, last season. Lions tailbacks had zero room to run inside in 2010, and Raiola dances on the edge of disaster in pass protection. His value is partly in recognizing defenses and calling protections, but these grades point to a disturbingly rapid decline in pure performance.

SHOPPING LIST: The Lions cannot afford to assume Raiola will bounce back, and be fine for years to come. They need to acquire an impact starting center for 2012 and beyond.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,team needs,centers,offensive line,dominic raiola

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old mother hubbard: the centers

With the combine nearly upon us, it's time to resume the position-by-position roster breakdown.  As with the defense, we'll start with the players closest to the ball and move out.

Is there any more controversial Lion than center Dominic Raiola?  The Hawaiian-born, 6'-1", 295 pounder was Matt Millen's second-ever draft pick, and a prototypical West Coast Offense center.  Coming from a long line of outstanding Nebraska Cornhusker offensive linemen, Raiola was anointed the interior anchor, signal caller, and (to use an apropos basketball term) pivotman of the Lions offensive line for the next decade.  His squat frame (I believe the '1"' at the end of that 6' is decorative) helps open up sight lines and passing lanes for QBs hitting short slants.  His ability to pull, agility in space, and second-level blocking makes him perfect for blocking on the screens and outlet passes that help the WCO stay "on schedule" and keep defenses honest.  So what's the problem?

Well for starters, the problem is that the Lions haven't run the WCO for years.  The other problem is that Raiola is a little undersized for a modern NFL offensive lineman, and has always lacked either the bulk, the strength, or both, to push the pile.  As a rookie, this was painfully obvious; he was absolutely abused in the interior of the line, and was a big reason why Lions power backs, like James Stewart, could never establish a rhythm.  I remember well watching him in his rookie year at the old SVSU open training camp, and cringing.  Lions DTs like Luther Eliss and Kelvin Pritchett absolutely had their way with him; it wasn't a great omen.  In the passing game, Raiola had good technique right out of the block, but his lack of bulk (and lack of experience facing elite DTs in the Big 12) meant that he needed help from a guard to block even average defensive tackles.  Raiola quickly earned the scorn of most fans as the first high-profile Matt Millen 'bust'.  Raiola put his head down and worked, and within a couple of years, his maturing body and NFL strength training began to caulk over some of the gaps in his game.  His toughness, consistency, and heady reads brought what very little consistency there was to an offensive line that has been a revolving door in more ways than one.  When Joey Harrington was on the ropes, it was often reported that Raiola was the only teammate that consistently had his back in the locker room.  Though the offense last year was not geared to his strength--emphasizing the power run game and deep passing game--to me, there was an immediate dropoff in overall OL play when he went out with an injury to his right wrist.  As testament to his toughness and committment, Raiola spent several weeks putting in extra time, trying to teach himself to snap with his left hand.  Keep in mind, the Lions were already approaching 0-16 at that point; Raiola and the Lions had practically nothing left to play for.

I am not going to suggest that Dominic Raiola is an elite center.  However, most Lions fans filed this guy in the "sucks" bin many years ago--and either have not watched for, or have not been able to see, the vast improvement he has made since.  He is among the top half of starting centers in this league--and having already had a cast of thousands be awful on either side of him, with no end in sight, the Lions desperately need him to stay right where he is for 2009.

Andy McCollum is a fifteen-year veteran, the meatiest nine of which were spent with the St. Louis Rams.  McCollum played on some outstanding offensive lines in the late nineties and early aughts with the Greatest Show on Turf, and continued to be a steady force in the middle for years after Vermeil, Warner, Faulk, and company pulled up stakes and left town.  McCollum was one of the many offensive linemen who were crumpled by the St. Louis O-Line Famine of 2007, and was released after the season was over.  The Lions picked up the 6'-4", 300-pound veteran for depth, and for the first time in well over a hundred games, the Lions had need of a backup center.  McCollum stepped and started against Jacksonville, and did an okay job.  Many Lions fans rejoiced at how the running game seemed to pick up--and it's true, it looked like RB Kevin Smith had more daylight up the middle than before.  However, in pass protection, the offensive line was quickly overmatched.  The meager amounts of the cohesiveness and toughness the offensive line had recently begun to show, especially in the Chicago game, evaporated.  Without Raiola calling the protections, it was clear that the offensive line was back to being five ill-fitting parts again, rather than a cohesive machine.  McCollum was definitely decent, and his size and leverage in the middle was definitely a more natural fit for the Coletto/Kippy Brown/Dumpster Fire 'offensive scheme' the Lions ran in 2008.  However, even if he were an overall upgrade over Raiola (he isn't), his best days are long since behind him.  I would not be surprised if McCollum hung 'em up after this season, or even before.

SUMMARY:  The Lions have a solid veteran center in Raiola, and only a veteran reduced by age to mediocrity behind him.  If the Lions were looking to go interior line with the 1.20, 2.1, or 3.1, and an outstanding center prospect with grit and size (like Cal's 6'-4" 316# Alex Mack) were sitting there, I could see them taking him and putting him at RG, with the understanding that he could someday usurp Raiola on the line.  If McCollum retires or is released, I could see the Lions signing a veteran OL with an outstanding special teams resume to take his spot as the 'warm body who can snap'.

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