Watchtower Review: Lions vs. Chiefs

From the Lions vs. Chiefs Watchtower:

Last season, the Lions had the 19th-best defense in the NFL, allowing 23.1 points per game. The Chiefs scored 22.9 PpG, 14th-best in the league. I’m going to project the Chiefs to score 23-27 points. I have hellaciously low confidence in this projection.

Heh.

When a Romeo Crennel defense has average-or-better skill level, it disproportionately disrupts a Linehan offense’s scoring—primarily, by depressing per-play pass effectiveness. Run effectiveness seems to go up in response, possibly due to Crennel ‘ceding’ the run in order to stop the pass. When Crennel’s available talent is lesser, though, the situation reverses itself: Crennel’s defense becomes extremely susceptible to the pass, and therefore allows points in bunches.

Given that the Chiefs have lost their best pass defender, Eric Berry, to an ACL tear, and given the Lions’ explosive passing offense, I believe Detroit able to at least compensate for this schematic advantage—and possibly, overcome it and flip the tables on Crennel.

I project the Lions to score 31-34 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Heh.

Knowing this is more of a shot in the dark than an actual projection: I project a 34-23 Lions win.

MWAH HA HA HA HA HA.

When looking at the history and resumé of Chiefs’ OC Bill Muir, I noticed eerie parallels between him and former Lions OC Jim Colletto. Both Muir and Colletto were previous colleagues of the OCs they replaced, Charlie Weis and Mike Martz. Both Weis and Martz are known as pass-first schematic innovators who occasionally overestimate their own superiority. Both Muir and Colletto were charged with maintaining the existing framework of the offense, while streamlining out the “wizardry” and reinforcing the MANBALL.

So far, Muir’s tenure has been every bit the disaster Colletto’s was.

Early on, the Chiefs used tosses, sweeps, and reverses to exploit the Lions’ defensive line. As I’ve said on here before, and as Pro Football Focus has repeatedly identified, the Lions’ linemen often abandon gap responsibility in the name of penetration. Notably, I saw Kyle Vanden Bosch drawn well out of position on the reverses—leaving nobody home to make the tackle. This was a clever bit of scheming by the Chiefs, and one I expect to see deployed by other teams this year.

After halftime, the Lions did a much better job of staying home—and of course, the Lions’ offense made stopping the run a moot point anyway. I believe this is a design principle of the defense. As someone on the Fireside Chat noted, Schwartz has said “We’ll stop the run on the way to the quarterback,” and that’s exactly what we saw in effect: the Lions did not stop the run well, but the Lions’ offense made stopping the run irrelevant.

Instead, the Lions focused on pass rush and pass coverage, and the result was incredible. Two sacks, one QB hit, nine pressures, a batted pass, four forced fumbles (three recovered), and three interceptions. As I said in my latest Bleacher Report article, 5 Ways NFL Experts Were Wrong About the Detroit Lions, the Lions’ back seven currently rank number one overall in Pro Football Focus’s pass coverage grades.

On the offensive side, I’d found Crennel’s defense did a disproportionately good job against Linehan’s offense in years when Crennel’s defense was ranked in the top two thirds of the league. Crennel’s 17th-ranked Patriots held Linehan’s 8th-ranked Vikings to just 17 points—and Crennel’s 11th-ranked Browns completely shut out Linehan’s 16th-ranked Dolphins. In both games, passing effectiveness was static, or down, while running effectiveness greatly increased. It seemed like Crennel was allowing the run in order to stop the pass.

However, the year Crennel’s D was ranked 23rd and Linehan's Rams were the 28th-best (read: 3rd-worst) offense in the NFL, the Rams went wild. Those timid Rams hung 27 points on the Browns, 65% above their season average. They averaged 8.36 YpA, 48% better than their season average—though their run game managed only 3.29 YpC (-13%). I concluded that when Crennel’s defensive talent is well below average, Linehan’s offenses explode through the air (despite running less effectively).

Well.

The Lions mustered only 2.97 YpC, but blew up for 8.05 YpA—and, of course, scored 48 offensive points. It must be said: the offense was assisted by a short field several times, as the defense forced an astounding six turnovers—but the Lions were excellent in the red zone, converting many of the chances they got. It looks as though my analysis of what happens when Linehan meets Crennel was spot on.

In conclusion, this game was super-awesome, and the Lions haven’t even played their best football yet. It’s all part of finding out exactly how high expectations for the Lions should be—and in this case, how low expectations for the Chiefs should be.

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Three Cups Deep: Lions vs. Chiefs

Ford Field was rocking. Everyone was standing, cheering, clapping, and laughing. The Wave was in full effect, circling the sold-out stadium three, four, five times. Me, my seven-year-old, my five-year-old, and my father-in-law had long since blown out our voices cheering, screaming, ‘SUUUUUUH’-ing, and yes—singing Gridiron Heroes so many times we lost count.

Said Dominic Raiola:

"In the years I've been here, it is never been like that in the stadium."

Said Ndamukong Suh:

"The crowd was amazing, as they always are," defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh said. "I love to see our field continue to be sold out - no empty seats anywhere in that stadium. I appreciate it fans, and look forward to the next time we get back here."

Said Kyle Vanden Bosch:

"It was loud out there. It was difficult for (Kansas City) to make adjustments, to run audibles, and even get the snap counts. We have a definite advantage at home, and we can feel the crowd's energy."

The thing that impressed Vanden Bosch the most was how long the fans stayed despite the score.

"It was nice to see - I don't know how many touchdowns we were up late - that the fans were still there supporting us," he said. "They weren't in a hurry to get home, they wanted to finish this thing out with us."

Of course. Of course! Who wouldn’t? Who wouldn’t want to see this through to the end? Who wouldn’t want to stay to the final whistle, to lap up every minute, to savor every second? Who wouldn’t want to let the warmth of the big blue bonfire wash over them, bathe them in its glow, and laugh and cheer and high five along with 65,000 of their closest friends?

Said Nate Burleson:

"We said before the game that we wanted to give the crowed what they've been wanting," he said. "Some of the coaches said in a meeting last night, 'There's no better place to throw a party than at your own house.' We had a pretty good party today."

That’s exactly what it was: a party. From the second half on, the Detroit Lions hosted an enormous coming-out party, with everyone in attendance or watching at home or seeing highlights of it later or reading about it this morning invited. It was an announcement and celebration of the time of the Detroit Lions having arrived.

Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson were just too good to stop, adding another two touchdowns to their mutual total. Besides Calvin, Stafford hit six other receivers at least once. The not-Calvin skill position triumvirate of Nate Burleson, Titus Young, and Jahvid Best combined for 18 catches, 246 yards, and a touchdown. Tony Scheffler had one catch—but it was a 36-yard touchdown grab.

None of this counts the 43-yard pass to Burleson or 24-yarder to Calvin Johnson (that would have put the Lions on the Chiefs' 1-yard-line) that were called back on penalties. Add in Best’s 57 yards and touchdown, and Keiland Williams’ 25 yards and touchdown, and you’ve got yourself one hell of an offensive explosion.

On defense? The Lions held the Chiefs to three points, 267 total yards, 18% third-down conversion percentage, forced six turnovers and eight penalties. The Lions are now #3 in the NFL in scoring defense, #2 in scoring offense, and #1 overall in points differential—by a long shot.

As I said in the Fireside Chat, the party didn’t get started right away. The Chiefs moved the ball on the ground well early, and the Lions struggled with a few just-out-of-reach passes and an inability to get two yards on the ground when they need it. But that can’t be the takeaway from this incredible win.

The Lions’ offense is nothing short of spectacular, and when this defense plays with a lead, it’s not much less so. The much-maligned secondary played its tail off, and the Lions looked It’s true that the Chiefs are anything but stiff competition—but an honest-to-God blowout is a rare treat in today’s NFL. Let’s take this one at face value, shall we? Let’s bask in the national attention the Lions’ six- (kinda ten-) game win streak is getting. Let’s have another round of cider, and bask in the glow of the big blue bonfire.

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Fireside Chat: Week 2, Lions vs. Chiefs

Kool and the Gang, HIT IT.

Our Week 2 celebration came in three parts thanks to me accidentally kicking my network cable. Twice.

Part one:

Part two:

Part three:

If watching them here doesn't strike your fancy, you can always subscribe via iTunes for free.

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Chiefs

Week 1 is the Great Deceiver.

Every serious observer of the NFL falls prey to its tantalizing temptations and poisonous lies. After spending all spring and summer drawing our own vivid mental pictures of what all these teams and players will look like, our very first glimpse of reality either applies fixative—or punches a hole through the canvas.

If we see what we expected, we pronounce ourselves right and project fifteen more games of the same thing. If we don’t see what we expected, we either despair and project fifteen more games of the opposite—or dismiss the results out of hand.

There's a reason why they say "Any given Sunday." The NFL is an incredibly competitive league, with billions of dollars of revenue driving everyone to the bleeding edge of performance. The difference in talent and execution between a “good” team and a “bad” team is not nearly so great as we believe.

On the field, a lucky bounce or a fantastic play can dramatically alter the story of the game, and a few such breaks in one direction or the other can overcome even decisive differences in execution. That’s why I don’t include current-season data until after Week 3—and why we shouldn’t assume a Lions team coming off an opening-day road win will eviscerate a Chiefs team that just got whupped 41-7.

Bill Muir vs. Gunther Cunningham

Weis	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NEP	25th	17.2	5.63	3.28	KCC	19th	22.1	6.32	3.83	30	+74%	5.88	+4%	3.39	+3%
NEP	10th	23.8	5.91	3.82	TEN	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	7	-71%	4.42	-25%	4.31	+13%
NEP	18th	18.8	6.43	3.91	TEN	13th	20.2	6.60	3.79	31	+65%	9.17	+43%	5.96	+52%
NEP	18th	18.8	6.43	3.91	TEN	13th	20.2	6.60	3.79	17	-10%	7.06	+10%	3.56	-9%
NEP	23rd	18.8	6.79	3.79	KCC	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	27	+44%	12.1	+78%	3.06	-19%

Bill Muir’s name sounds familiar to most people who read last week’s Watchtower. Muir was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay from 2002 through 2008, and current Buccaneers OC Greg Olson both worked under Muir and succeeded him. But Muir’s connections built over 33 years in the NFL are far too deep and varied to do my usual cradle-to-clipboard life story. So here’s what you need to know:

• 2011 Kansas City Chiefs: Head Coach Todd Haley, Offensive Coordinator Bill Muir, Defensive Coordinator Romeo Crennel, Assistant Head Coach Maurice Carthon.

• 1998 New York Jets: Head Coach Bill Parcells, Offensive Coordinator Charlie Weis, Defensive Coordinator Bill Belichick, DL Coach Romeo Crennel, RB Coach Maurice Carthon, Offensive QC Assistant Todd Haley.

Muir is succeeding Charlie Weis as Chiefs OC, so the connections here should be excruciatingly obvious. From top (Chiefs GM Scott Pioli) on down, the Kansas City Chiefs football leadership is bred almost entirely from Parcells/Belichick stock. This great piece from Arrowhead Pride describes how this current Chiefs offense resembles Parcells’ original Giants squads.

When Todd Haley tabbed Bill Muir to replace Charlie Weis, he expected Muir to fully replace Weis—up to and including calling the plays. The problem for Muir—and for me—is that Muir didn’t call the plays in Tampa Bay; Jon Gruden kept that responsibility for himself. So: Muir was an “O-line coach++” in Tampa Bay, and was tabbed succeed Charlie Weis in KC because of his impeccable Parcells/Belichick background.

When Muir was hired, Haley explained he wanted continuity for QB Matt Cassel. Yet, according to Dan Pompei of the National Football Post, Haley wanted to refocus the offense on “meat and potatoes” football. Does this all sound familiar, Lions fans? It should: it’s what happened when the Lions fired Mike Martz. Former Lions OL coach Jim Colletto had a background with Martz, and knew his system well. Rod Marinelli on Colletto’s ability to take over:

"His appointment also allows us to maintain continuity in our offense, which is important to our players."

Right. And just like Muir with Weis, Colletto ripped out all the fanciest pages of the offense and skewed the playcalling run-heavy. For the Chiefs’s sake, let’s hope Muir fares better than Colletto did.

So, instead of Muir’s time in Tampa as our subject, we’ll use Weis’s from his time in New England. That should be a good balance between “Charlie Weis’s offense” and “without some of the college-y spread offense-y stuff.” And . . .

. . . I give up.

• NEP 25th-ranked offense, KCC 19th-ranked defense:  NEP scoring up 74% over season average, with rushing and passing effectiveness unchanged from average.
• NEP 10th-ranked offense, TEN 11th-ranked defense: NEP scoring down 71% from average, with passing down 25% and rushing up 13%.
• NEP 18th-ranked offense, TEN 13th-ranked defense, 1st game: NEP scoring up 65%, passing up 43% and rushing up 52%.
• NEP 18th-ranked offense, TEN 13th-ranked defense, 2nd game: NEP scoring down 10%, passing up 10%, and rushing down 9%.
• NEP 23rd-ranked offense, KCC 29th-ranked defense: NEP scoring up 44%, passing up 78%, rushing down 19%.

There are several quality matchups here, including two from the same season (always the best comparison). However, I can’t identify a single trend or common thread. In all my three seasons of Watchtowering, I’ve never seen a set of data so ridiculously screwy. So I feel extremely confident in saying there is no identifiable systemic advantage or disadvantage.

We still don’t have usable data for this season, so again we’ve got zero historical OR current data to go on. Last season, the Lions had the 19th-best defense in the NFL, allowing 23.1 points per game. The Chiefs scored 22.9 PpG, 14th-best in the league. I’m going to project the Chiefs to score 23-27 points. I have hellaciously low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

The Lions defense looks dramatically improved from last season. The Chiefs offense looks dramatically worse. I’m getting a very Jim Colletto vibe from this whole Bill Muir thing. But NFL teams rarely fall on their face that hard two weeks in a row; I suspect the Chiefs offense rebounds, and makes the Lions’ defense work a little.

Scott Linehan vs. Romeo Crennel

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Romeo	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	NEP	17th	21.6	5.99	4.71	17	-30%	6.63	0%	6.46	+22%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	CLE	11th	18.8	6.09	4.18	0	-100%	2.39	-60%	5.56	+51%
STL	28th	16.4	5.63	3.78	CLE	21st	23.9	6.37	4.51	27	+65%	8.36	48%	3.29	-13%

Romeo Crennel, as with Haley and Weis and Muir and Carthon, comes from the Parcells lineage. from 1983 to 1992, he was a New York Giants defensive assistant, first under Parcells and then Ray Handley. He followed Parcells to the Patriots in 1993, and then to the Jets in 1996. Crennel was hired as the Browns’ defensive coordinator in 2000, then jumped ship to join Belichick and the Patriots in 2001.

The rest, you likely know. Crennel stayed with the Patriots through 2004, after winning three Super Bowl rings. He got his own head gig, again with the Browns, and wore the whistle from 2005 through 2008. After sitting out a season, Todd Haley installed Crennel as Chiefs defensive coordinator—thereby putting the 1998 Jets band back together.

Linehan has faced off against Crennel three times. In 2002, Linehan was coordinating the Minnesota Vikings, and their offense was the 8th-best in the league. The Vikes were scoring at a 24.4 PpG clip, netting an okay 6.6 YpA but an outstanding 5.3 YpC. Crennel’s Patriots were the 17th-best defense in the NFL, holding opponents to 21.6 PpG, 5.99 YpA, and 4.71 YpC.

Impressively, the unremarkable Pats held the Vikings to just 17 points. The Vikes passed exactly as well as they did on the season, 6.60 YpA, and ran even better than usual, racking up 6.46 YpC. So what happened? Daunte Culpepper happened. He was sacked four times and lost one fumble (the Vikes fumbled three more times and lost two of them on that day). The Vikings were also penalized 8 times for 74 yards.

In 2005, Linehan’s Dolphins met up with Crennel’s 11th-ranked Browns defense. Cleveland was allowing just 18.8 points per game. Meanwhile, the Fins were ranked 16th, scoring 19.9 PpG. The Browns went and shut Miami out. Zero point zero, Mister Blutarsky.

Though Miami ran all over Cleveland, netting 139 team rushing years at an average of 5.56 a pop, their horrifying 2.39 yards per attempt kept them from getting anywhere near the end zone. They completed only nine of their 28 pass attempts. That’s really, really bad.

In 2007, Linehan’s resistable force met Crennel’s movable object. The lowly Rams were the 28th-ranked offense, mustering only 16.4 PpG, 5.63 YpA, and 3.78 YpC. The Browns weren’t much better; as the 21st-ranked defense they allowed 23.9 PpG, 6.37 YpA, and an awful 4.51 YpC.

For the first time in his career, Linehan solved Crennel. With the ‘07 Browns defense more susceptible to the pass, Linehan’s Rams racked up 8.36 YpA, a massive 48% boost in effectiveness. They only ran for 3.29 YpC, but who cares? They outscored their season average by 65%, hanging a solid 27 on Cleveland.

The trend here is obvious: when a Romeo Crennel has average-or-better skill level, it disproportionately disrupts a Linehan offense’s scoring—primarily, by depressing per-play pass effectiveness. Run effectiveness seems to go up in response, possibly due to Crennel ‘ceding’ the run in order to stop the pass. When Crennel’s available talent is lesser, though, the situation reverses itself: Crennel’s defense becomes extremely susceptible to the pass, and therefore allows points in bunches.

Given that the Chiefs have lost their best pass defender, Eric Berry, to an ACL tear, and given the Lions’ explosive passing offense, I believe Detroit be able to at least compensate for this schematic advantage—and possibly, overcome it and flip the tables on Crennel.

I project the Lions to score 31-34 points. I have extremely low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Again, just about everything here is an aggravating factor. The Chiefs allowed Ryan stinkin’ Fitzpatrick to light them up for four touchdowns; at that rate Stafford ought to throw eight to nine. Again, they lost Berry. Latif over at Pride of Detroit wrote a wonderful post breaking down the Chiefs’ 3-4 Cover 3 look, and the vital role Berry plays in it.

If the Lions’ passing offense can overwhelm the Chiefs’ secondary, they could be in for another very, very, very long day. Another possibility: the Chiefs are so scared of the Lions passing attack that they drop deep into a soft shell, and Jahvid Best goes nuts in the space underneath.

Conclusion:

Once again, we have a frustrating lack of real evidence. We have good historical data for both matchups, but one is the most confoundingly contradictory jumble of data I’ve ever seen, and one points toward the Lions’ offense having an opportunity to blow away the Chiefs through the air. The Chiefs are coming off a blowout loss to a presumably-inferior opponent, but that gives me pause; you just don’t see that happen twice in a row in the NFL.

Knowing this is more of a shot in the dark than an actual projection: I project a 34-23 Lions win.

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GUILTY! GUILTY! GUILTY! Detroit Lions: Dirty Tamperers

With the news that the Lions had been found guilty of tampering, forfeiting one draft pick and swapping places with another, every Lions fan is either seething with the injustice of it all, grieving for the loss of the a draft pick, or joyous over having some real live actual Lions news to talk about. Well, every Lions fan but me. I’m more like “Meh.”

Of course, I’m bummed that the league chose to find the Lions guilty of tampering with Jarrad Page, a player the Chiefs didn’t want but were too greedy to let walk. Of course, I’m disappointed that the Lions are going to lose a draft pick. But I wouldn’t be much of a Flamekeeper if I didn’t look at the bright side . . .

Of course, Martin Mayhew is no Richard Nixon; he is not going to resign in the face of this embarrassment. In fact, if you think about it, this isn’t much punishment at all. Here are the Lions’ seventh-rounders over the last two seasons: Tim Toone, Lydon Murtha, and Willie Young. None made the opening 53-man roster their rookie year. Stefan Logan has made Toone’s quest for a spot this year all but futile. Murtha is long gone, signed by the Dolphins off the Lions’ practice squad. Young, despite his pedigree as the son of a panther god, has barely played [Ed.: Link not for the faint of language].

All of that happened while the Lions churned, literally, hundreds of players on and off the roster, desperate for usable talent. This offseason, the Lions’ roster is going to be deeper than it’s been since Millen. The odds that anyone drafted in the seventh round will make the squad are miniscule. It sucks that the Lions have been slapped on the wrist, but they’ve only slapped on the wrist.

In fact, by signing free agent safety Erik Coleman, the Lions have already added a player more likely to make an impact than the seventh-rounder they lost. Coleman is a more physically talented player, and a more skilled coverage guy, than the man he replaces (C.C. Brown). I’d imagine he’ll compete with Spievey throughout the offseason for the spot next to Delmas—and might back up both spots, if he’s not starting. Coleman was solid, if not spectacular, for the Falcons in recent seasons (I had him in my IDP dynasty league, so I was watching).

I know, I know, the Lions hardly have a competitive advantage, and any talent acquisition handicap seems terribly unfair. But in the grand scheme of things, Gunther’s loose lips hardly sank the ship.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,kansas city chiefs,gunther cunningham,jarrad page,erik coleman

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The Lions Rest, But Do Not Sleep

According to Chiefs blog Arrowhead Pride, the Lions have inquired about KC’s disgruntled safety Jarrad Page.  Apparently, it didn’t get much past the inquiry stage, possibly due to the asking price.  Scout.com’s Nate Caminata found out from Scout’s Chiefs expert Nick Athan the Chiefs’ valuation of Page ($).  Whether the Page talks develop into a Page trade, or whether they’re not getting any farther than they’ve gotten, this is important.

For starters, it shows the Lions aren’t satisfied with throwing C.C. Brown atop a pile of bodies (Ko Simpson, Marquand Manuel, Marvin White, Daniel Bullocks) at safety.  Brown, nicknamed “Can’t Cover” Brown by Giants fans,  won’t fix the frequent blown assignments we saw from Lions safeties in 2009.  The others . . . well, they’re the same guys from 2009.  So nothing the Lions saw in minicamp gives them confidence that the answer at safety is currently on the roster.

The second, and arguably more, important thing: they’re doing something about it.  Throughout last season, the Lions cycled players on and off the roster at an incredible rate.  Any time they could make a move to improve the roster, they did—and given how much of that roster needed improving, they made a lot of moves.  A commenter, TimT, did a breakdown of last season’s roster churn, showing that 123 different players were Lions (to one degree or another) during the 2009 contract year.

After the free agent bonanza in March, and subsequent draft in April, there was a collective exhalation, as though the mad rush was over.  Outside of a few key spots (RT, OLB, CB, and S), the roster makeover was nearly complete.  Skilled veterans and talented youngsters were all over the starting lineup—and what’s more, they fit what the coaches want to do.  The Lions-observer hivemind was satisfied that with a couple of top free agents next season, and a third solid draft, the Lions would be well on their way to perennial contention.

While the Lions-observer hivemind are satisfied at the progress, the Lions execs and coaches are not.  Rather than call the last 18 months of work good, and head into camp with more answers than questions for the first time in forever, they’re still furiously turning over every stone.  With the signing of Dré Bly, and this move for Page, we see that the Lions aren’t content with improvement in the relative sense, not satisfied with merely being better.  They won’t look on a hard-fought five-win season as a success; they’re not playing for 2011.

Given the brutal division in which they play, and magnitude of the mountain they had to climb just to get to “bad,” and the unknown height yet to climb before “good,” this relentless effort to improve in July won’t really matter, will it?  The difference between Ko Simpson and Jarrad Page won’t be the difference between a winning season and a losing one . . . will it?

Well, even discounting the impact that some of the “minor” additions like Zack  Follett have had on the roster, the greatest impact will be the process of improvement itself.  The phrase “relentess effort to improve” hasn’t been used in association with the Lions since . . . well, it’s been a while.  Just the fact that the Lions are continually adding, improving, changing, looking for more, striving to be better, even when other teams are not . . . it will pay real, material dividends in the W-L column this fall.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,kansas city chiefs,jarrad page,arrowheadpride.com

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Antonio Cromartie Being Traded to the Lions?

Last August, Gunther Cunningham was “flat pissed off” about Lions defenders wimping out on making tackles:

We had four guys on that play last week turn it down. Not miss it, turn it down, in my opinion.  You can coach and teach and all that, but it's about building an attitude. It's about an attitude that we're going to build on this defense, or they're going to have to deal with me, and I don't think they want to do that.

So it surprised me a little, and Tom Kowalski too, to hear that the Lions are at the forefront of the Antonio Cromartie derby.  Why would that be surprising?

Well, there's this: a brilliant, and hilarious, mock Facebook page that savagely lays bare Cromartie’s lack of tackling effort in the AFC playoffs.  How could Gunther, a lover of old-school, hard-nosed defense, possibly be okay with trading for a corner whose clean-jersey play is the stuff of Internet legend?

Here’s a scouting report on Cro, at the time of his draft:

We are all familiar with the fact from a personal standpoint that I like big corners. This young man definitely fits the criteria. He’s a unique physical talent. We looked at the opportunity at bringing a guy in here that is going to give us playmaking ability in the secondary. When you watch the tape on him you see his ball skills and it’s very impressive . . .

When you look at the skills and you see the body of work he was involved with you feel very confident and comfortable that the only think that it comes down to is the medical. The medical came back absolutely fine. I’m confident it wasn’t a difficult choice to make. It was very evident that he was the one guy there that was clearly our choice.

Who said that?  The Chargers’ then-Head Coach, Marty Schottenheimer.  Remember when Gunther built those legendarily nasty Chiefs defenses in the mid-to-late 90s?  Yeah, that was with Marty at the helm.  Marty is not only a longtime friend and colleague of Gunther’s, they share a passion for old-school football.

In 1997, when Marty and Gunther’s Chiefs had the #1 defense in the NFL, they did it with corners James Hasty and Dale Carter.  Hasty was a little smaller, and a little feistier, but take a look at Carter: 6’-1”, 194 pounds, didn’t put up great tackling stats (when they managed to even keep track of his tackles) . . . but picked off 21 passes in his first seven years in the NFL.

These numbers look very, very much like Antonio Cromartie’s career to this point, and I’d think Cunningham would consider Cromartie & Buchanon, with King competing with James and/or a rookie for the nickel spot, a big upgrade over Buchanon, James, and a street free agent. Remember, it wasn’t tackling that Lions corners Philip Buchanon, Anthony Henry, and Will James couldn’t do last season—it was covering opposing wide receivers.

The other thing you have to consider is the price.  Tom Kowalski and Michael Schottey are both saying that Cro might be had for as little as a fifth-round pick—and that’s simply a must-do deal.  There’s no way that the Lions could add a corner of Cromartie’s physical skills in the fifth round—and, as I’ve said before, cornerback is a spot where rookies almost never provide drop-in upgrades; the learning curve is very steep.

This trade would add a talented veteran at a position of extreme need for a minimal price.  Given Martin Mayhew’s penchant for pulling these types of deals off, is it really that surprising?  All we can do now is wait for the beginning of the league year (Friday), when Cro’s salary becomes tradable, and hope.

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