the Detroit Lions 2011 Pre-Draft Extravaganza

images by Icon SMI

All spring long it felt like this day would never come. Now, it’s here: the 2011 NFL Draft begins tonight, smack dab in the middle of the craziest labor chaos the league has ever seen. If you’re looking for my take on the Lions’ draft strategy, head on over to The Honolulu Blue, and check out my interview with THB’s author, Wade. We talk about needs, strategy, and my “gun-to-my-head” first-round choice. Wade does a great job, so keep going back after you listen!

Next, if you’re looking for my mock draft, I collaborated with Michael Schottey and Zac Snyder on #mockThree, a blogger/writer mock conducted entirely on Twitter. Schottey, who’s had real training as a scout, and goes to all the college All-Star games to grade these guys in person, did a fantastic job of wearing the Mayhew Hat. The expert graders haven’t turned in their marks for us yet—but just stepping through it made me thrilled for the Lions’ possibilities:

Picks:

• 1.13 (13) Da’Quan Bowers, DE – Clemson
• 2.12 (44) Brandon Harris, CB – Miami
• 3.28 (92) DeMarco Murray, RB – Oklahoma
• 4.32 (129) Brandon Fusco, C – Slippery Rock
• 5.23 (154) Buster Skrine, CB – Tennessee-Chattannooga
• 5.28 (159) Casey Matthews, LB – Oregon
• 5.32 (163) Ronald Johnson, WR – USC
• 7.02 (205) Chris Conte, S – California

Trades:

• Traded #75 to New England for #92 and #159.
• Traded #107 to Green Bay for #129, #163, and #233.

This mock was a dream scenario for the Lions. Let’s get this out of the way: I’ll out myself as the guy who pushed hard for Bowers. If the Lions stand pat at 13, they should take a developmental DE or OT. Why? Two reasons.

First, dominant power/speed combo rushers and huge, athletic pass protectors are only available in the top half of the first round. If 2011 goes as expected, the Lions won’t be picking anywhere near this high for a while, and eventually Backus and KVB must be replaced. Taking this opportunity to do so just makes sense.

Second, there are only a few positions on this roster where a rookie can come in and start—and with the possible exception of Prince Amukamara, there won’t be any impact players at those positions. Even if the Lions go with a corner or outside linebacker, they’ll likely be developmental guys anyway. If reaching for an immediate need won’t satisfy that need, then why do it? Take the best prospect that fits a long-term need.

Ultimately, I think the Lions should trade down from 13. There will be four-to-six players the Lions should be happy to add to their roster there, so why not move down a few slots, add a pick, and take who’s left? In #mockThree, Michael Schottey couldn’t find a trading partner before our clock ran out, so we took the prospect with the highest upside: Bowers.

After that, the board unfolded beautifully for the Lions. CB Brandon Harris fell to us in the second round, which I couldn’t believe—but even after that, corners were bountiful throughout the draft. Ras-I Dowling, a corner many believe the Lions might take in the second, fell to us in the third—along with OLBs like Quan Sturdivant and KJ Wright, RBs like DeMarco Murray and Kendall Hunter, and OG/OC Will Rackley. Unable to decide between so many strong options, we traded back and picked up an extra fifth-rounder. At our new, lower third-rounder, we added Murray, a complementary tailback of the sort we know the Lions are looking for.

Things just kept working out. Schottey brought up Slippery Rock C Brandon Fusco’s name in the third, and was Schottey’s #2 choice for our original fourth-rounder. Then we got a whopper of an offer to move back in the fourth and add a fifth and a seventh, and we took it. Fortunately, Fusco was still there with the later pick. Bam, developmental center. With the three fifth rounders, we nabbed Buster Skrine, a CB Schottey had a third-round grade on, and LB Casey Matthews, a 4th-5th graded guy. With the last fifth, we picked up WR Ronald Johnson—a Muskegon product with whom some of you may be familiar. Seventh rounders are always BPA.

After the confounding first round, the board sets up perfectly for the Lions’ needs. Of the Old Mother Hubbard shopping list, (which, I know, isn’t complete), we filled every need except developmental tackle. We added six players who could all be major contributors, if not starters, in 2012. If the Lions are crafty, they could do just as well.

What the Lions won’t be able to do is add three 2011 starters. That’s because of the skill and talent already on the roster, not a lack of skill in the front office or talent in the draft. The Lions have become a good team, and on good teams you don’t draft a raw project in the fourth round and start him Week 1, a la Sammie Hill. On good teams,  a fourth-round project has to work to make the roster, let alone the starting lineup!

I’ll be honest: tonight, I have no idea who the Lions will take. I’m hoping they pull off a trade down, and get a player who’ll be great someday, plus change. Whether they get an OT or DE for the future, or a CB for the present, the amazing thing about this draft is that we can just sit back and enjoy it. If you’re smart, you trust Mayhew, Lewand, Schwartz and his staff, Shack Harris, and all the scouts—they’ve done beautifully with their first two drafts, and I have faith they'll do so with this one, too.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,nfl draft,mock draft

Read more...

baby, it's cold outside

Yesterday, I took the minivan out for a desperately-needed car wash.  The family truckster was smothered in a chalky, dingy coat of salt and dirt; three straight rounds of "I'll wash the car when it stops snowing and warms up", only to have niether happen, had taken their toll.  Well, I happened to be out and about, it was a bright, beautiful day, and the little ones always enjoy the big floppy cloths and the "rainbow soap" and the roaring  flamethrower turbine dryers.  With the mercury rising dangerously close to what we Michiganderanians consider T-shirt weather--fifty degrees--it seemed like the perfect thing to do on a lazy Sunday.  Then, I got to the parking lot.

  Fifty other people'd had the exact same idea.  The line for the car wash extended all the way out into the street, and people were just parking in one of the driving lanes with their turn signal on.  Everyone had followed the same thought process I had: beautiful day, been putting it off for months, doing nothing else . . . wash the car.  It's one of the things about the long, cold winter--it synchronizes our thoughts and actions.  It adjusts our expectations.  It makes us thrill for the merest hint of warmth.  It messes with our heads.

It's been funny as this year's NFL Draft Circus puts up the big tent.  The mockers are mocking, the analysis is flowing, and guys are rising and falling up the chart as the only real piece of info anyone has to go on--the Senior Bowl--has created almost unstoppable momentum.  Some of you might remember, I'd identified  B.J. Raji as a guy we should look at with our 1.20 . . . he had a good practice in the Senior Bowl--he was completely invisible in the game--and he's now a lock for the top ten, according to most mocks.  This, despite the fact that he wasn't graded as a top ten guy mostly because of his inconsistency.

It's funny, because with all the Lions fan mocks, comments, analysis, reaction, blogpost, blog comments, forum threads and replies, texts, tweets, and smoke signals, they all say the same things: "we need linemen", "we need corners", and my favorite, "we need five immediate impact players in this draft".  It's the same thing we do every year: we look at the team, and we think about the team we wish it was.  It's part of where we've grown up: we want tough.  We want a vicious, stingy defense.  We want to be stout against the run and relentlessly attack the pass.  We want to control the ball, control the clock, control the game.  Hit people in the mouth so hard they can't hit back.  We all follow the same, reasonable thought process.  We look at the 2008 Lions, and subtract, at least, Mike Furrey, Leigh Bodden, Edwin Mulitalo, and Dan Campbell.  Then we examine the differences between the 2008 Lions and the mythical, "2000 Ravens + QB + Megatron" we wish they were.

Then, we look at the pool of available candidates and start trying to check them off.  Crushing OT: Andre Davis, check.  Dominant MLB: James Laurenitis, check.  Smothering cover corner: D. J. Moore in the second . . . check?  Pair of RB-eating defensive tackles:  Um, maybe we trade up for B.J. Raji?  And, uh, I guess we sign Haynesworth?  You're dreaming.  Double-digit-sack DE?  Brian Orakpo.  Come on, you've already spent your two first-round picks three times.  Well, uhm, uh, is Julius Peppers going to be available?  Not to the Lions he isn't!

Hey, nice to see the National Football Post has been reading and agreeing.  Hey, fellas, what's up?

Seriously though, some of the reaction I've gotten on my Freeman pick in the NSS Interblog Mock Draft has gotten me thinking.  It's funny, because I often take a rap as an "optimist", an "apologist", a "sucker", or even an "idiot" because I never stop cheering for the Lions.  I never call the players bums, I never call the coaches or morons or idiots.  I never loudly proclaim that "I'm done with them", threaten to kill them, or root for the Reaper to come swiftly for Big Willie Style.  But then a lot of the so-called 'realists', the loudest complainers and most aggreived moaners, are right in line with me at the car wash!  We're all in a big herd saying, we need OT, we need DT, we need CB, we need LB, we gotta get five impact players, we need more talent, we gotta get bigger, we need, we gotta, we need, we gotta . . . whoa, whoa, WHOA!  I'm going to say something I never say during the season:

The Lions suck.

They suck, folks!  Our team, the Lions?  They suck out loud.  They blow goats.  You cannot add enough 23-year-old fatsoes to this roster to turn them into the 2000 Ravens.  You have to step back.  You have to take a breath.  Throwing rookies at pressing needs is not going to help--rookies, for the most part, can't fill those needs.  If you need Ray Lewis now, you can draft eleven MLBs and not get the one Patrick Willis that would help.  If you need Jonathan Odgen now, you can draft eleven offensive tackles and not get the one Jake Long that would help.  SO FEW rookies make an immediate impact!  First-rounders play like top starters as an exception, not as a rule.

Well, what about free agency?  Not much better.  This isn't the 90s anymore--good teams aren't shedding veteran starters in their prime for the rest of the league to gobble up.  The great dynasties of this era are all ten or twenty million under the cap.  Nowadays, almost by definition, if free agents were worth the amount of money they're asking for, they'd still be with their original team.

So . . . what, then?  You build for the future, because it's all you can do.  You have to take the players that you want to build up.  That you want to build your team around.  Coming into the 2011 training camp, these players should be the core of the team.  But coming into the 2009 camp, these players should--and will--be learning, and growing.  One or two of them might catch fire and contribute right away--but they will be hope for the future, not the foundation of a contending team.  We can't grade the players drafted this April by what happens on the field this September.

What we WILL get to grade, though, is the way Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand handle this draft.  We can see how they feed the roster, what positions need attention, if they appear to be working with the coaches, if they make trades, if they stand pat, how they react to the board unfolding in front of them.  THAT is what we should really be anxious to see in April--not eleven new Lions, but the performance of the men charged with drafting, teaching, coaching, and leading them.

Read more...

mock lion soup

Whew!  With the first half of my roster breakdown completed, it's time for some quick site news: I will be one of two blogs representing the Lions in the Next Season Sports (a Seahawks blog with an awesome name) Interblog Mock Draft!

I was invited to participate by Steve at www.detroitlionsblog.com, who writes himself some mean Lions analysis, and the head honcho at NSS, Aaron.  I'll be handling the 20th pick--and let me tell you, the board is not shaping up the way I'd hoped!  I really fear this will play out like last year, where all the Lions' targets go just a little be earlier, and there will be no cookies left for our Lions when the clock strikes 1.20.

Steve bravely handled the 1.1 duties--and fell victim to the ever-fickle swirling winds of Internet draft info!  His selection of freak DE/OLB Michael Johnson of Georgia Tech--currently viewed as a late-first/early-second type by the footbal 'blog glitterati--with the first overall pick raised some eyebrows.  However, Steve was spot-on with his reasoning and thought process.  First, niether he nor I think that Matt Stafford grades out as a #1 Overall Pick kind of quarterback, nor does he possess the consistency, toughness, and leadership that I think Mayhew and Schwartz are looking for (over and above arm strength, 40 time, etc.).  Further, Steve correctly notes that all signs out of Allen Park indicate that they are just fine with Jeff Backus and Gosder the Gozarian at OT, and therefore probably have no desire to shell out cap-busting money for a third OT.  That leaves the Lions with an interesting mix of players to choose from, none standing out, few addressing needs.  I think the Lions' most pressing need is that of a physically dominant DT--however, there is no Big Daddy Wilkinson or Kevin Williams sitting there waiting to be taken.  IMO, the Lions' next most pressing need is that of a legitimate linebacker with size and speed, a big athletic tackler who could fit in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 (as the Lions' base alignment is still up in the air).  Johnson would be a DE/OLB, but I'd look hard at Wake Forest's Aaron Curry, 6'-3", 247, an incredibly fast, athletic, and aggressive linebacker, who could play inside or outside in a 4-3 or 3-4.  He'd be an instant upgrade over Paris Lenon in a 4-3, would be amazing pair with Ernie Sims, and would be a firey leader that could set the tone for the defense--I'm not saying he'll be just as good . . . but he could be the Patrick Willis we DID draft.

Read more...