Karmelowiczed onions . . . er, Jareds

EDIT: folks, I'm sorry, but blogger keeps mysteriously eating the links.  They are:

killer article: http://www.mlive.com/lions/index.ssf/2009/02/jared_allen_raves_about_lions.html

Star-Tribune article: http://blogs.startribune.com/vikingsblog/?p=2474

Killer Kowalski at mlive.com pointed out a little tidbit in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune. It's a quick little interview/article with Jared Allen, talking about his relationship with the Lions' new defensive line coach, Bob Karmelowicz. Go ahead and check it out; I'll be right here.

Now, I should not have to remind anyone reading this that Jared Allen had an unbelievable 2008: he racked up 14.5 sacks and 54 tackles, and was the lightning rod atop a mountainous Vikings defense. It used to be that you could simply pass over the Williams Wall, but suddenly that wasn't the case. Allen singlehandedly shrunk the field for opposing offenses with his speed, strength, and tenacity.

Yet, 2008 was a tipping point for Jared Allen. His early career had been an almost unbroken string of success; as an up-and-comer for Kansas City, Allen flashed incredible potential and production.  In 2004, his rookie year, he garnered nine sacks in just 10 starts.  His second season, that sack count literally and figuratively "went up to 11" (apologies to Spinal Tap).  This trend culminated with a Pro Bowl season in 2007, where he had 15.5 sacks in just 14 games.  Allen had established himself as one of the premier pass rushers in the game, just as his rookie contract was expiring.  Still, a cloud hung over him: three DUI arrests (one in 2002 and two in 2006) had placed him in deep trouble.  Remember the "14 games" part of that "Pro Bowl season"?  Allen was under the NFL's equivalent of double-secret probation: the third stage of the Substance Abuse Program.  He'd appealed his standard four-game suspension down to two games in 2007.  However, one more incident within two years of his last arrest (September 2006), and he could be suspended for a whole season, and be one more false move away from lifetime banishment.  However, if he managed keep his nose clean until that two-year period was up, his slate would be wiped clean.  The Chiefs decided they couldn't roll the dice on that much guaranteed money for that much risk.  They franchise-tagged Allen, and traded him to the Vikes for a first, two thirds, and a swap of sixth-round picks.  Moreover, Allen got an enormous contract extension at the consummation of the trade: six years and seventy-two million dollars.  The Vikings were paying him an awful lot of money to ensure that people would continue to call them "Super Bowl favorites", no matter how many years in a row they play .500 ball.

Yet, despite (or perhaps because of) all the pressure, Allen had a tough time getting going. After five games, Allen had just two sacks--and for a guy used to more than a sack per game, that wasn't cutting it.  He called up his former position coach, Bob Karmelowicz.  It's tough to tell exactly what happened here--Karmelowicz was hired by then-new Texans head coach, Gary Kubiak, to enthusiastic response.  After one season as the defensive line coach, Karmelowicz was reassigned to "Special Assistant to the Head Coach".  Whether this was a promotion, or a demotion, I can't divine.  Either way, Allen paid out-of-pocket to fly Karmelowicz up to Minnesota every Tuesday for one-on-one coaching. I have amusing mental pictures of Allen's mom trucking him around in a minivan, his head bent up against the ceiling. "Goodbye dear; have fun at pass rushing today! Make sure you work hard and listen to your teacher!" It's eyebrow-raising, to be sure: a professional football player paying to be coached, when the team is both paying him millions to play, and paying other coaches millions to coach him. Yet, Karmelowicz made an instant improvement in Allen's game: Allen recorded 12.5 sacks in the last eleven games, terrorizing other teams on his way to his second straight Pro Bowl and the NFC North crown.  The whole story is really unusual; nfl.com's Adam Schefter wrote about it in a disturbingly-similar-to-the-Star-Ledger-piece blog entry back in December.

Karmelowicz, at first, seemed like one of the several "buddy hires" on the Lions' roster: Gunther's old DL coach from the "glory days" in Kansas City, who happened to not have anything better to do.  Interestingly, however, Karmelowicz has also coached at LSU and Arizona State, which links him to multiple members of the offensive staff as well.  It seems as though he'll be a really natural fit in terms of the culture Schwartz & Co. are trying to build.  Moreover, the Jared Allen story speaks volumes about what Karmelowicz can do as a teacher, motivator, and  defensive line coach.  I cannot wait to see what this guy does with White and Avril, let alone any linemen we choose to draft.

This is one of the things that's hard to see from our perspective, a reporter and an Internet away from anyone who really knows anything about these guys.  We see two or three sentences about an assistant coach guy and go, "Oh, right, he worked with so-and-so back in the day.  *sigh*  I wanted someone good."  The reality is, we know effectively nothing about these guys except what we see on the field on Sundays.  And what this guy puts on the field on Sundays is usually great.

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the fellowship is complete

Killer of mlive.com has the info on the Lions' complete coaching staff.

I think Steve Mariucci mentioned that between head coaches, coordinators, and assistants, the Lions hired and fired nearly eighty coaches from the time Millen took over until now.  I haven't done the research to be absolutely sure this is true, but I believe that every player that's been here more than two years since Millen took over has had to deal with a different position coach, coordinator, head coach, or all three.  That's really depressing--and it's no wonder that players like Roy, Kevin Jones, and Shaun Rogers learned to tune out the coaches!  The players with big salaries figured out that they'll be there a lot longer than anyone telling them what to do . . . so why do it?

As Schwartz made each of his coordinator hires, I said to myself (and to you all): this guy might not be the 'hot' hire, but he's had plenty of success as a coordinator, he's been a head coach, he believes in Schwartz and Schwartz's vision, and he's more than qualified to be a coordinator again.  It made me expect to see that level of expertise, that extensive resume, that level of "This is a wise and rock-solid hire" reaction to each position coach.  Like the QB, RB, WR, TE, and OL coaches all should each have had been an NFL coordinator, or college HC.  Well, with this crew, it ain't the case.

Looking over the offensive staff, it has Linehan's Pac-10/WAC/Mountain West fingerprints all over it.  The QB coach will be Jeff Horton, who was a 'special assistant' to Linehan in St. Louis, and the head coach at Nevada and UNLV before that.  The OL coach--a position we were all looking at hard for some improvement--will be George Yarno.  He's coached offensive lines in college for 17 years, including stints at Arizona State, LSU, and Washington State (all hotbeds of Gillman/Martz/Erickson coaching tree talent).  His one year of NFL experience?  Last year, as an assistant OL coach in . . .

. . . wait for it . . .

Tampa Bay.  Not exactly the bulletproof, unassailable, gosh-this-guy-will-spin-this-straw-into-gold hire we were hoping for there.

However, it's worth noting that not every position coach isn't meant to be a coordinator, just like every coordinator is not cut out to be a head coach.  The position coach is actually the main interface between the player and the coaching staff--that's the guy with the player in the classroom, in film sessions, in position drills.  On a day-to-day basis, the position coach is doing the teaching and coaching and guiding and player development, while the coordinators are working on the scheming, gameplanning, and execution.  As the Grandmaster himself said, as a head coach, you aren't coaching the players--you're coaching the coaches.  Therefore, for a position coach, having encyclopedic X-and-Os knowledge is nice, but not a requirement--and as we saw with Martz and Stanton, having a guy who thinks he's a bigger deal than he is might not be in the best interests of the player.  What's most important in a position coach is his ability to work with players, and his ability to work with the coordinator and head coach.

I look to this line from Jim Colletto's farewell interview:

"I had a talk with Jim and he said he wanted someone who was going to be here (for more than one year)," Colletto said today. Colletto, who has one year left on his deal, planned to retire following the 2009 season.

This speaks volumes about the staff the Grandmaster is trying to put together.  He himself hired a strong right hand in Guntherball, and a strong left hand in Linehan.  Then, he allowed them to pick position coaches and assistants that would make THEM comfortable and let THEM perform at their best, rather than a bunch of recently-fired coordinators who will want to help stir the soup.  You know what they say about too many chefs in the kitchen . . .

But above all, it looks like Schwartz wants to build a staff that will stay together.  Linehan said it in his introductory presser: he's sick of moving.  He wants to settle down.  He turned down offers from franchises in better on-field positions, to work with a man whose vision he believed in and who he could be happy working for.  Gunther is at a point in his career where he'd like to cement his legacy as a DC under a man who he deeply respects.  None of these position coaches are "hot names" who are going to be moving on as quickly as they arrived, changing nothing while they're here (Scott Loeffler, I'm looking at you).  It's hard to get excited about most of these hires--but with luck, they'll prove to be a group that can provide the professionalism and continuity this franchise has desperately lacked for so long.

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Bitter Swill: Lions Hire Scott Linehan

you've . . . you've got to be kidding me.

I'm sitting here looking at the sad remains of a pint of Guinness, what's left of the once-proud head lamely pooling at the bottom of my glass.  The nitrogen-fueled fury of the pour and surge is gone, memorialized by the dried lacing clinging to the inside of my pint glass.  I want more beer, but . . . is it worth it?  The last foamy mouthful?  The hollow, bitter swallow that covers my tongue but evaporates before it makes it to my gullet?

This is the worst possible hire.  I'm absolutely speechless right now.  Every move up until now, including the Bob Slowik hire that apparently wasn't a real hire, I've either loved or warmed up to.   But Scott Linehan?

For those not in the know, Linehan started his football career as the quarterback of the illustrious Idaho Vandals, playing for head coach Dennis Erickson (some of you might remember Idaho's defensive coordinator at the time, one John Lewellyn Smith).  He had a cup of coffee in the NFL, then quickly moved to coaching.  First, John L. hired him at Idaho to be the wide recievers coach, then he scored the OC gig at UNLV.  Linehan then returned to Idaho as the OC, then went on to the University of Washington as the WR coach and was quickly promoted to OC.  From there, John L. hired him away to coach Louisville's offense.  In his second year, Linehan's offense led the Cardinals to an 11-2 season, and he accepted a position as the offensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings.

Ugh, excuse me for a minute . . .

Okay, I feel a little better now, but my toilet might never forgive me.

In his three years as offensive coordinator of the Vikings, Linehan drew up the schemes that allowed Duante (*urp*) Culpepper (*gag, choke*) to throw for 12,049 yards and 82 TDs . . . don't get too excited, the Vikes went 23-25 in that stretch.  On the strength of this, Nick Saban hired Linehan to run his offense in Miami.  After a stunning 2005 season where the Fins won their last six games to finish 9-7, the St. Louis Rams tabbed Linehan to be their new head coach. Late Rams owner Georgia Frontiere said of him at the time:

“It’s like picking a star for a movie, you want the right person. My first impression was that he was youthful and upbeat and had great energy. Just a down to earth person. Very genuine. He told me of his plans for the Rams, and it made me want to get the season started right away.”

He got started right away, lifting the team to a .500 season.  However, the 2007 Rams squad was absolutely decimated by injury, as badly as I've ever seen.  The best the Rams could muster was a 3-13 finish.  Hopes were high coming into the 2008 season, but the Linehan-led Rams were hopelessly overmatched, and dropped their first four games, getting outscored 147-43 in that stretch. Linehan controversially benched veteran starting QB Marc Bulger in the fourth game, looking for any kind of spark.  Like the Lions, the Rams had a week 4 bye.  Unlike the Lions, the Rams had seen enough.  Linehan was summarily fired.

So, what on earth does Jim Schwartz see in this guy?  Linehan had been on the sidelines for some really explosive passing games, but never for more than a few years, and in most cases the offense was successful either before he arrived or after he left.  It was never clear that it was his gameplanning or scheme or playcalling that made the difference.  When he finally got to call the shots on his own, he was an unqualified disaster.  Well, Schwartz gave us a clue during the search:

"The philosophy's gonna be ours.  We're not going to count on that guy to bring the philosophy. I think personality is going to be important, experience is going to be important -- those kind of things.  What I'm saying is, we're not looking to hire a guy to bring a scheme to us. We have a good vision of what we want the team to be, and what we're looking for is somebody to be able to execute that vision."

Well, wasn't the philosophy going to be "run and stop the run"?  What on earth is reuniting Scott Linehan with Duante (*hork*) Culpepper going to do for a running game?  We saw how pathetic Culpepper is; he was noticably worse than both Kitna and Orlovsky, and the numbers bear that out.  Sure, we have Megatron, and sure, we can play jumpball with him, but a consistent offense that does not make.  You can't run the ball and control the clock when you're constantly trying for the moonshot TD.  I mean, just look at the numbers:

* In 2002, Linehan's first year as coordinator, Michael Bennett, Duante Culpepper, and Moe Williams combined for 2,507 yards and 26 TDs, with a 5.3 ypc average--leading the NFL in all three categories.

Um.  What?

* in 2003, Minnesota's three-ring running back circus of Moe Williams, Onterrio "Whizzinator" Smith, and Michael Bennett spearheaded a rushing attack that compiled up a 4th-ranked 2,343 yards on 493 carries (4.8 ypc) and 15 TDs.

Holy wow.

* In 2004, the Vikings rushed much less often as Culpepper was going crazy through the air--they had the 4th fewest attempts of any team--but they maintained a 4.7 yard-per-carry average, 2nd best in the NFL, to rack up 1,823 yards.  This despite the fact that Onterrio Smith led all Vikings rushers with just 544 yards, and Culpepper was the next-highest rusher.

Criminy!

* In 2005, rookie Ronnie Brown and Ricky "Sticky Icky" Williams combined for 1898 yards on 444 attempts, good for an 8th-ranked 4.3 ypc average.

Remember, this was when Ronnie Brown was a bust.

* In 2006, Linehan's first year with a stud running back in the stable, Steven Jackson carried the ball 348 times for 1,528 yards (4.4 ypc) and 15 TD . . . not to mention 90 receptions for 806 yards.

As a friend of mine once said, "That's totin' it".

Color me stunned.  I thought Schwartz had foolishly decided that reuniting Culpepper with Linehan would recapture some sort of magic, and the Lions could play pitch-and-catch with Megatron in lieu of rebuilding the O-line or establishing the run.  Actually, Schwartz has already come out and said that the Minnesota reunion has nothing to do with it, and Linehan's hire will not affect whether Culpepper stays or goes. It turns out that Linehan actually has a bulletproof resume as a run-first coordinator, using a bruising rhythm many-carries-per-game run scheme to draw in the defense, then bomb it over their heads.  With Linehan in the fold, Schwartz has now hired two men who've both been coordinators and head coaches before to sit at his right and left hands.  He's unafraid to hire strong coordinators because he values their strength and experience--and confident in his own ability to lead.

I'm staring at that last bit of bitter, empty foam in the glass.  I suppose I'll have to swallow it--and my pride--on this one.  And with that, I propose a toast to the Grandmaster.  Salud.

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Lions Hire Gunther Cunningham. Guten Tag, Guntherball

So Jim Schwartz has inked his top lieutenant: longtime KC defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham. Cunningham is the Lions' new defensive coordinator and assistant head coach.  Often the "assistant head coach" tag is applied to position coaches--either up-and-comers who are destined for coordinating gigs (a la Todd Bowles), or senior assistants who have the trust and ear of the coach (a la Rod Marinelli in Tampa and Chicago).  To be both the defensive coordinator AND the assistant head coach implies that Gunther will be Schwartz's right-hand man, having a very strong hand in gameplanning, calling the plays, and leading the defensive position coaches.  Cunningham and Schwartz coached together in Tennessee in 2001, where Cunningham had landed after a long tenure as the Chiefs' DC and then a short tenure as the Chiefs's head coach.  He was the linebackers coach and assistant head coach (ah ha!) while Schwartz served as defensive coordinator.  Cunningham left after three years to reclaim his headset as the defensive coordinator in KC--but now, with the uncertainty surrounding Chiefs head coach Herman Edwards, Gunther has taken on the task of rebuilding one of the absolute worst defenses in the history of the NFL.

This hire tells me quite a bit about Schwartz.  First, he understands the size of the task ahead of him.  Leading a group of talented veterans who know what to do and how to do it is one thing--he saw how that was done in Cleveland/Baltimore, and he did it in Tennesee.  However, rebuilding this defense from the ground up is not something that a first-time head coach can do and do well.  He sees that he needs a strong, experienced defensive coordinator who can handle a lot of the administrative tasks and grunt work of running the defense while he gets oriented in his new role as head coach.  Check out this excellent piece by Nick Cotsonika of the Free Press; it goes in-depth on how Schwartz is really starting to feel the magnitude of time and effort he's going to have to put in to do the head coach stuff the way he wants to; he knows he won't have time to carry the load doing the DC's job as well. Further, Gunther went from being a defensive coordinator with an impeccable resume to being a head coach, and was fired after only two years.  Having that 'what not to do' experience at your right hand--and in your ear--I would think would be an invaluable resource for a first-time head coach.  Finally, Gunther doesn't take lip, he gives lip (thanks John Madden!):

He's exactly the sort of guy I said I'd like to see as DC if Schwartz were hired; a guy with a lot of fire.  I don't know if Schwartz sees himself as a subpar motivator, as a Good Cop who needs a Bad Cop, or if Gunther's coaching style didn't enter into his decision at all.  Still, I think it's a good dynamic.  Finally, Schwartz has hired a guy who fits with his defensive philosophy.  What is that philosophy?  That's a very good question . . .

Remember this man?  If you don't, click the picture.  He's former (and, tragically, late) Chiefs badass Derrick Thomas.  In his nine-year career, he made the Pro Bowl nine times.  He sacked the quarterback 126.5 times, including seven in one game (still an NFL record).  Drafted as a pass-rushing linebacker, as he got into the prime of his career he started flexing between OLB and DE, being used situationally to wreak maximum havoc.  Gunther Cunningham was the man behind Thomas and that brutal Chiefs defense.  In my mind, the 90's Chiefs were the Ravens of their day: blitzing to sack the quarterback, blitzing to stop the run, attacking from snap to whistle, attacking from coin flip to final gun, creating turnovers, and just generally vicious.  Like the Ravens, they didn't feature much of an offense, yet were consistently contending for the AFC crown.  From Wikipedia:

"During his original tenure as defensive coordinator, Cunningham's defenses allowed an average of only 16.4 points per game, the best mark in the NFL and had a turnover margin of +30, tops in the AFC. Under his lead, a number of players excelled, including stars such as Derrick Thomas, Neil Smith, James Hasty, and Dale Carter. Cunningham's defenses led Kansas City to an overall record of 42-22."

Note the stats they used there: scoring defense, turnover margin, wins.  Not 'yards allowed', the official yardstick of NFL defenses.  Cunningham gears his defenses to excel in the exact same dimensions that Jim Schwartz believes are the real hallmarks of successful defense: allow few points, stop the run, get lots of quarterback pressure, generate turnovers, and stop drives.  Well, what's the problem then?  Why isn't this a slam dunk hire?

Because in 2008, the Chiefs didn't do any of those things.

* They allowed 27.5 points per game, ranking 29th in the NFL.

* They allowed 2,543 yards rushing (5.0 per carry); only the Raiders and Lions were worse.

* They sacked the quarterback only 10 times, the lowest total in NFL16-game-season history.

* They generated 24 turnovers, 19th best in the NFL.

So what's going on here?  How did Gunther Cunningham, well known as one of the most intense, demanding, aggressive, and successful defensive coaches in the modern era, build such a limp-wristed, feather-loafered defense?

The answer seems to lie in two maladies that have plagued the Millen-era Lions: coaches and staff leading the troops in different directions, and total lack of firepower on the field.  Cunningham was defensive coordinator under Herm Edwards--another Tampa 2 disciple.  As we know all too well, the Tampa 2 relies on the front four generating pressure with nearly no blitzing.  The Tampa 2 emphasizes stifling the opponents's passing game with quick pressure and a suffocating tight zone scheme.  The Chiefs were clearly playing Edwards's brand of defense over the past two years; never blitzing and always in soft zones.  Moreover, the Chiefs were essentially talentless on defense before Gunther took over; recently resigned GM Carl Peterson made few moves to address this, and even those were spectacularly ineffective (see Mitchell, Kawika).

So, Gunther had no talent to work with, and was running another coach's scheme that ran counter to everything he's traditionally believed in.  Is it any wonder that this failed?

Frankly, I'd be lying if I said this hire didn't give me pause.  Gunther's nearly a decade removed from being the mastermind of the most feared defense in football, and he's done very little in the interim to show he still has it in him.  Many Chiefs fans believe than in his 40th year in football, the game has passed him by.  At this point, only time will tell.   Either the Lions could build an aggressive, blizting, turnover-generating, 3-4/4-3 flex, flying from everywhere, smack-you-in-the-mouth defense, or they could be almost exactly the same unit they were in 2008: a soft zone defense that's both conservative AND ineffective.  Or, they could be somewhere in between--at this point, nobodycan possibly know.

This was probably Schwartz's most critical hire, and he erred on the side of experience, trust, and consistency of philosophy over 'hotness' or 'name value'--which is a choice I have to respect and agree with.  So say "Ja" to Guntherball--but pray the new Lions look like the old Chiefs, and not the current ones.

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Detroit Lions Asylum, est. 1929. The Inmates, proprietors

While trolling for information after the hire, I stumbled upon the Free Press article full of 'player reaction' quotes.  For a guy who most fans wouldn't mind seeing leave, they had a lot of quotes from Travis Fisher in there.  Overall, the impression I got was that these players have barely heard of Schwartz, but like the brand of football the Titans play.  The last quote in the article really caught my eye, though:

"I think having a guy in there is great," center Dominic Raiola said. "I think you needed to put a guy in there sooner than later. A lot of this stuff is starting to pick up, especially going down to the Senior Bowl, because that's the main thing. We obviously need people to help us. Hopefully he'll do a good job doing that."

At first, it didn't quite strike me--I mean, there's nothing about that quote that's false.  But it echoed around my head for a second, and a thought started brewing . . . Raiola was happy not that Schwartz was hired, but that somebody was hired.  In his mind, it was most important to have a coach in place before the Senior Bowl in order to hire a staff and evaluate talent, not to hire the "right guy".  To me, this seems backwards--obviously it's better to have a staff in place in time the Senior Bowl than not in time, but I would think it's paramount that they hire the right coach and staff.

But think about this from Raiola's perspective.  He was drafted in 2001, with Millen's first draft class.  I remember him in training camp that year, trying to fight off Dan Wilkinson while Millen played middle linebacker in dress clothes.  He's been through Mornhinweg and 'take the wind'.  He's been through the pomp and circumstance of Mooch's installation, and the well-coiffed mediocrity that came after it.  He's been through several bitter Thanksgiving failures, and firings thereafter.  He's been through "Millen's first post-Ford-meddling" hire, and he's been through 0-16.  He's been through the West Coast Offense, the New West Coast Offense, the Martz Offense, and the Power Run With Martz Routes I Don't Know What You Call That But It Sure As Hell Is Not Offense.  All the while, he's been booed at and hissed at, chanted and ranted and raved against, and derided as the source of all the Lions' numerous woes.  All he's done is given it everything he's got, week in, week out, for eight straight terrible seasons.  This season it got so unbearable, he spun around on a heckler and gave him the bird.  I'm not about to defend that, but it shows how the eight years of terrible football and a vicious crowd have ground down his spirit.

At this point, it must feel absolutely futile, bordering on irrelevant.  This will be his fifth head coach, and God knows-how-manyth offensive coordinator.  All he does--and all he'll do--is work his tail off, punch the clock, cash his paycheck, and get ridiculed for it.  At this point, how can he feel like anything about this hire will be anything different?  It's just a new name on the masthead.  Heck, he must be at least half as frustrated as some of the fans (sarcasm)!  Reading between the lines of his quote, it looks like he sees what Marinelli has hinted at and what Schwartz has outright said several times: nothing is going to change until the roster is rebuilt.  

The importance of this draft, with so many high picks and so many holes to be filled, cannot be overstated.  There's a desperate need for good evaluations, solid decisions, and--perhaps most importantly--a clear direction and consistent philosophy in this 2009 draft.  As the search continues for coordinators (Guntherball?  Really?), I am more concerned with getting a proven talent evaluator in house.  For what it's worth, my vote goes to former Broncos GM Ted Sundquist.  Fired after disagreeing too often with now-former Broncos head coach Mike Shanahan, he's done some really impressive work for PFT this season, scouting and breaking down games at a very high level of detail.  Since he's currently unemployed, the Lions could bring him in immediately to assist with this draft--and if he's not the right guy for the long term, fine, let him seek full control elsewhere.  But, for crying out loud, don't let any opportunity for more help slip by.

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Detroit Lions Hire Grandmaster Jim Scwhartz

PFT is reporting that ESPN is reporting that it's Schwartz.  Props to mlive.com's Tom Kowalski for predicting the hire would be today based on the complete and total radio silence from Allen Park.

Interestingly, Killer also claims that the Lions cut their full process short to bring in Schwartz partly because of Schwartz's ties to Scott Pioli (the newly-hired general manager of the Kansas City Chiefs).  Killer disputes the PFT report that Pioli and Schwartz despise each other, saying that the Lions 'knew better', and wanted to get Schwartz signed before Pioli could lure him away.  If this is true, it speaks volumes about the way this hire has been handled; in my opinion, the Lions played their cards perfectly from the get-go.  Keeping totally silent about their preferences, interviewing many different candidates--regardless of what they thought of previous candidates--even waiting patiently to interview Ron Rivera, two days after Schwartz likely gave the interview that sealed the job.  They had a very well-thought-out process and stuck to it--until they thought they might lose out, at which point they jumped and got their man.

If Killer's characterization of all this is accurate, then I would have to say that Lewand and Mayhew get A+ marks from me.  I think the Grandmaster is an excellent coach, a brilliant hire, and this fills me with optimism for the next couple of years.  What will be absolutely cruicial, however, is the staff Schwartz hires from here on out.  Marinelli's greatest downfall was his inability to hire a competent staff . . . will the Grandmaster's opening establish a more robust pawn structure?

. . . I apologize.  You're going to have to deal with some chess jokes.

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Todd Bowles Coaching Resumé: To Whom it May Concern

Todd Bowles has snuck under the radar for quite some time.  While I've attempted to profile all serious candidates, I found myself finding reasons to put Bowles's piece off.  It's strange, because there ISN'T a good reason to.  He's a position coach with 'assistant head coach' appended to his title, which seems to mostly be a device for to keep other teams from hiring good coaches away.  He's known as an excellent motivator and teacher.  He comes from a great coaching pedigree, one that has spawned many excellent coordinators and skippers.

Oh wait, I know why I've mentally marginalized him: he's got Rod Marinelli's resume.  He seems to be cut from almost exactly the same cloth, a 'star' position coach with a great track record of making players and units he coaches better--but no coordinator experience at the NFL level, and not much at the college level either.  Like first interviewee Jerry Gray, Bowles played with Martin Mayhew in Washington, so it's been tempting to think the Lions interest in Bowles is on a similarly superficial level.

So what was Todd Bowles doing in Allen Park, addressing the media from the Lions' podium?  Yes, just like Jim Schwartz--the only other candidate to be invited back to meet with Big Willie Style--Bowles did a pre-interview presser to introduce himself to the media, as well as lift up a corner on the sheet covering his plan for turning the Lions around.  Bowles spoke energetically, explaining why he'd have it all under control:

"I've done this before. I know the blueprint of turning a team around," Bowles said. "The blueprint we have is to change the culture. The first thing you have to do is condition. You have to condition the players mentally. They have to buy into the system.

It's astounding; he really does seem to be channeling Marinelli with this quote.  It would be hilarious--if he hadn't just done it on the field.  He is a vital part of the Tuna-picked staff that came over from the Cowboys, and turned the Miami Dolphins from a team that needed an overtime miracle to avoid pulling an 0-fer themselves, to an 11-5 squad that wrested the AFC East crown from the preseason darling Patriots, Jets, and Bills.  Lions fans have already marveled at how perennial disappointment Andre Goodman has metamorphosized into a solid starting cornerback--well Bowles presumably played a big part in that.  In fact, the Fins started Goodman and Will Allen at corner this year--two players that were written off and released by the teams that drafted them.  Goodman and Allen each got every opportunity to start in Detroit and New York, both were high draft picks at positions of need, yet both were sent packing after their original team just couldn't get starter production out of them.  Under Bowles, however the secondary was decent even with those two guys starting.  The obligatory rundown:

* The Dolphins were the NFL's 9th-ranked scoring defense, and 15th-ranked yardage defense.

* The Dolphins picked off opposing quarterbacks 18 times, 8th best in the NFL.

* Despite losing Jason Taylor, the Fins still managed 40 sacks, also 8th best in the NFL.

* QBs facing the Dolphins posted a passer efficiency rating of just 77.0--to put this into perspective, opposing QBs facing the Fins played like Jamarcus Russell this year (77.1), whereas QBs facing the Lions played like Steve Young in his prime (average of 110.9).

* Despite that, the Fins were ranked only 25th in passing yardage defense, allowing 3,644 yards through the air.  I was curious how opposing QBs could be rated so poorly, and yet move the ball well against the defense.  Part of the answer is that the Fins were susceptible to the deep pass, allowing 49 20+ yard pass plays--tied for fifth worst in the NFL. 

It sounds like the Fins' DBs managed to hold down the fort very well from within 20 yards, forcing bad throws, picking them off, getting coverage sacks, and defending passes.  However, I don't know if it's corners getting beat or bad safety play, but the Dolphins secondary DID give up a lot of big plays.

To be perfectly frank, there's not a lot of information on Bowles.  He's obviously well respected around the League: he also interviewed for the Broncos gig.  He has the Parcells stamp of approval--witness this quote from his presser:

“From the time I got to the Jets, he told me I’d be a head coach in this league, and he taught me accordingly. I mean, he kept me by his side. He taught me step-by-step the structure of how to put a team in place and keep a team in place and not be a one-hit wonder. … Parcells has taught me more about, from the first guy on the roster to the last guy on the roster, how he fits in the system, why he fits in the system, why we want him on this team, why we do not want him on this team, and he taught me how to learn players.”

Taught him how to learn players, he did.  Like Candidate 1A and the Grandmaster, Bowles spent a year as a scout before getting into coaching.  In his case, he worked under Ron Wolf and the Packers for the '95-'96 season.  Out of curiosity, I looked up how the Pack drafted in 1996.  In the first round, they selected OT John Michels--he made the all All-Rookie team, but his career was devastated by injury.  Mike Flanagan, the stalwart center, came in the third, and they picked up Marco Rivera, the future-HoF guard, in the sixth.  If the Lions could duplicate that kind of success for this draft, a worst-to-first turnaround wouldn't be so farfetched.

“My philosophy on offense is to first run the ball, especially in the NFC North, when it gets cold in the wintertime. Although two of you have domes, you have to run the ball because that keeps the defense off the field, that gets time of possession correct, that makes us wear the other team down, and that wins ballgames. Passing game looks nice. Calvin’s a great receiver. You have to get him the ball. You have to have a great complementary passing game, but at the same time, you must be able to run the ball in this league to get by.”

This philosophy is exactly the kind of team that Lions fans would love to root for: punish them with a grinder like Kevin Smith, then kill them with Calvin Johnson over the top.  And what about the defense?

“Defensively, I come from a 3-4 scheme. I’ve been in a 4-3 scheme. You want to have the personnel to kind of fit what you do. If you don’t, you can have a hybrid version of a 4-3 until you can get a 3-4 scheme in place. … If Ernie (Sims) or (Cliff) Avril or those guys don’t fit a 3-4, we’ll play a 4-3. . . . I would be working towards [a 3-4] as long as I have the personnel. … Without having the defense in place here, you have to see what the personnel looks like on the other side of the ball, and you have to draft and do free agency accordingly.”

I've said before that the transition to the 3-4 is going to take a pretty huge roster overhaul.  We have the bodies for the 3-4 defensive ends, and a perfect 3-4 pass-rushing OLB in Cliff Avril.  However, the other linebackers are all all about 25 to 30 pounds too light to play in the 3-4, and we lack the centerpiece of the 3-4, the lynchpin, the key at the point of attack: the nose tackle.  A 3-4 NEEDS a physically dominating two-gap nose tackle--and not only are they really hard to come by in general, there's only one to be had in this draft: Boston College's B.J. Raji.  He might be available with the 20th pick . . . but even with him, you are looking at a two- or three-year reclamation project before this defense is even 'good', let alone 'great'.  Would Bowles have that long?

It all remains to be seen.  Bowles has been brushed under the rug by those talking Lions football, but as of right now he is one of two candidates to have met with Big Willie Style himself, and as of right now there are no others scheduled.  There are a lot of positive indicators around Bowles, but I'm not convinced that he's ready, or that now is the right time.  If Bowles is the hire, I will definitely be biting my nails until I see his Lions take the field in September.

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Jim Schwartz Meets With Detroit Lions Media: Rumors and Lies

Last night, the interwebs fairly well exploded with reports that Titans DC Jim Schwartz (codename: 'Grandmaster') was flying in to Detroit to interview—and Pro Football Talk's sources claimed (click the 'exploded') that the Titans were convinced Schwartz's flight to the 'D' was on a one-way ticket.  In the red-eyed dawn of another frozen Monday, though, things still look to be fairly unsettled.  Many outlets are reporting that Leslie Frazier and Miami DB coach/assistant HC Todd Bowles (to whom it may concern piece still coming) are still due to be brought in for second interviews.

Interestingly enough, the Grandmaster was allowed to hold a presser for the Detroit media today.  Given the total radio silence from Lions officials since the Lions' officials officially became Lions officials, letting a candidate get up on the dais and address the media--albeit briefly--seems incongrous.  I'm reminded of the presser Rod Marinelli held to announce that the Lions had not yet hired Mike Martz to be the new offensive coordinator, and spent the entire time trying to remind himself to throw in an "IF we hire him" when responding to questions.  Sayeth Schwartz: "I think it's time to find a replacement for Bobby Layne".

NFL.com's Adam Schefter has since reported that the Lions also contacted Chargers DC Ron Rivera again--as a reminder, last week Rivera rebuffed the Lions (and any other team that came calling) so he could focus 100% on preparing his defense to get pistol whipped by Big Ben and the Steelers.  I haven't heard anything on an interview being scheduled, merely the Lions brass courteously following up.

According to the Newark Star-Ledger, Candidate 1A is now far behind Ravens DC Rex Ryan for the Jets' head coaching position.  He was at least superficially courted by everyone with an opening, but the Jets seemed to be the franchise with the most serious interest--and the most mutual interest.

One fewer musical chair: while Leslie Frazier had been heavily rumored to be in the final two for the Broncos gig, today the Broncos hired Patriots OC Josh McDaniels.  Mangini, McDaniels--all the offensive guys with "M" names are getting snapped up by other teams; that is fine with me.  If the Ravens do hire Rex Ryan, that leaves the Rams, the Raiders (who haven't yet lined up all the high school coaches they want to interview), and us as the final teams looking for a skipper.  This means that even if Mayhew and Lewand take their time, we'll probably still have our pick of Candidate 1A, The Grandmaster, Frazier, and Bowles--probably the top four candidates on the Lions' board.  Not too shabby for the worst team ever--just hope the Rams hire Mike Mularkey.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jim schwartz,rex ryan,ron rivera,josh mcdaniels,steve spagnuolo,st. louis rams,baltimore ravens,new york jets,denver broncos,adam schefter

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Jim Schwartz Coaching Resumé: to whom it may concern

Titans Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz's name has come up a lot lately.  He was a finalist for the Redskins, Dolphins, and Falcons jobs last year, and was reportedly the runner-up to former San Francisco coach Mike Nolan several years ago.  It's not surprising--the Titans have been a consistently good team despite having inconsistently good talent for over a decade.  It's true that head coach Jeff Fisher deservedly gets a lot of credit for this--but while the Titans have cycled through offensive coordinators (Mike Heimerdinger, then Norm Chow, then Heimerdinger again), Jim Schwartz has been the DC in Nashville for the past six straight seasons, was the linebackers coach the year before, and a defensive assistant the year before that.

In researching Jim Schwartz, the first thing that struck me was not his consistent success, nor his impressive rise through the Browns/Ravens organization, nor his Honored Economics Graduate award from his alma mater, Georgetown.  It wasn't his work as a scout and film analyst for the original Browns, under Bill Belichick.  It wasn't even Schwartz’ unique and detailed approach to stats and analysis.  No,  it was the fact that he's an avid chess player.

Before I start this paragraph, go click that link about stats and analysis--it's an outstanding article by the New York Times' Judy Battista about Schwartz's Billy Beane-esque understanding of the game of football.  Any attempt to summarize on my part would be wasting my time and yours.

Okay, have you finished reading?  Great.  If you are a Lions fan, you now probably want to see Schwartz roaming the sidelines at Ford Field at least half as badly as I do.  Where was I?  Oh yes--chess.  Schwartz himself notes in that Times article that the frequent comparison of two football coaches' teams squaring off to a 'chess match' is a false one:

"People talk about the chess match between coaches and coordinators,” Schwartz said. “Anybody who plays chess knows your rook never falls down, your rook never stops one spot short. There’s human nature to football that will never make it into a game of numbers.”

Still, having known some very serious chess players in my life (my brother won the K-8th grade division Supernationals while in 5th grade), I can say with confidence that it takes a certain type of analytical, logical mind to not just 'play' chess or 'be good' at chess, but truly enjoy it and pursue it as a hobby.  Schwartz shows through his research that he understands the game of football at a deeper level than most.  Imagine going from a coach who has literally no idea why his team cannot win a game, to a coach whose understanding of how the game really works is so profound that he stands out wherever he goes, even while working for some of the most knowledgable coaches to ever wear a whistle?

How many times did Rod Marinelli say "I don't know, I don't have the answers.  I just have to work harder, we just have to keep doing what we're doing"?  Rod Marinelli truly believes that if you show up, execute fundamentals well, and leave it all on the field, then you are doing everything you can to win a football game.  The fact that he and his staff were consistently outcoached in Xs and Os—on both sides of the ball—reflects this.  Sure, I bet from his perspective, it seemed like the Buccaneers teams he coached could simply show up and play hard and win games--but consider the difference in scheming and playcalling ability between Jim Colletto and Jon Gruden.  Consider the difference in scheming and playcalling ability between Joe Barry and Monte Kiffin.  The great ones--Belichick, Parcells, Walsh--have always stood out, if not in pure darkroom-brainiac X-and-Os, than at least in preparation, gameplanning, and adjustments.  Listen to how defensive end Kyle Vandenbosch explains (in the above Times piece) how Schwartz's preparation makes it much easier for him to be effective:

“Especially from a defensive lineman standpoint, we don’t usually pay attention to formations and down and distance. He has that broken down for us. We know what to expect out of certain formations, and what plays they can run. It’s unusual for a defensive line. But we have a quiz in front of the whole defense on Friday, and he expects everybody to know that."

This reminds me of Cal head coach Jeff Tedford, whose offensive system is designed to allow the quarterback to make a presnap decision based off of only one or two defensive keys.  It allows the quarterback to worry less about decision-making and more about execution--which resulted in excellent college careers for a lot of quarterbacks who then had slow or difficult transitions into the NFL (Trent Dilfer, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller, Aaron Rodgers, etc.).   Taking the read-and-react burden off of the front seven could go a long way towards unleashing the effectiveness of some of the younger, more talented players on the Lions defense.  Finally, Schwartz doesn't adhere to any kind of strict system--he appears to prefer a 4-3 to a 3-4, and prefers to get pressure from the front four alone, but isn't afraid to blitz when that isn't working.  But beyond that, he seems to be highly adaptive to whatever the situation calls for.

Where I have been throwing out NFL rankings in yardage allowed as proof that Defense X or Defense Y is good, Schwartz understands that scoring defense is what matters--and furthermore doesn't just look at totals and averages, he accounts for garbage time and wasted efforts (like hail mary passes at the end of a half).  Nevertheless, for the sake of argument, let's look at how the Titans stack up on regular season defense:

The Titans were ranked 6th in the NFL with 293.6 yards allowed per game.

They ranked 2nd in scoring defense, allowing a miniscule 14.6 points per game!  For the record, the Titans are one of only three teams whose defense allowed fewer points than the Lions' offense scored (the Steelers and Ravens are the others).

The Titans allowed only 1,502 yards on the ground (3.7 ypc), the 6th best in the NFL.

The Titans sacked the quarterback 44 times, which slots them as the 5th best.

So where does this leave us?  Schwartz is definitely one of the frontrunners for the job--in fact Tom Kowalski said yesterday on WDFN that Schwartz is THE frontrunner.  I think it would be an outstanding fit on paper, and yet--and yet, I wonder.  Schwartz is obviously a veteran coach with a LOT of success, but I really wonder if his talents and style will be the best fit for a defense that desperately lacks direction.  IMO, if Schwartz is the pick, he's going to need a defensive coordinator with a lot of fire and motivational ability.  He needs to win over the locker room immediately, and I wonder if he can do that with a reputation as a 'stat guy'.  Still, if Schwartz comes here, than the Lions will have gotten an oustanding football coach, and I will be thrilled.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,jim schwartz,martin mayhew,tennessee titans

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Martin Mayhew Knows Allen Park's Walls Have Ears

There was an awful lot of media snickering being heard after Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand held their mutual introductory press conference.  From Lewand getting players' names horribly wrong, to Mayhew claiming he was the best one to fix Millen's mistakes because he was Millen's top assistant when he made them . . . well, it wasn't well recieved.  But buried in the middle of that press conference was an interesting quote from Mr. Mayhew about their draft strategy:

"I'll speak on that a little bit, but let me preface that - talking about that - by saying that I think where we've hurt ourselves in the past is by talking too much. I've been there prior to the draft and I've seen us get out there and talk about our needs and what kind of players that we're looking for and I've seen you guys and others hone in on what our needs are. I read the clips for every NFL team 365 days a year; I read everybody's clips and I read what's going on. And I'm doing that looking for a competitive edge and what I don't want to do is be the person that gives somebody else a competitive edge on us. So I'll talk a little bit about that, but I won't get into a lot of detail about what our needs our and what direction that we plan on going."

Well he sure wasn't whistling Dixie.  According to Tom Kowalski (during a radio interview on WDFN), there's been an unprecedented "information lockdown" in Allen Park.   It seems to be true; the only real leads we have on the coaching search are form other team's beat writers reporting on official requests for interview permission.  Chris Mortensen threw out the names Jim Schwartz and Mike Mularkey as names to watch--and ESPN trumped that up into "Mort reports Schwartz and Mularkey are #1 and #2 in Lions coaching search", which isn't what he really said at all.

Well, today we got quite the interesting bombshell from NFL.com's Adam Schefter: after hearing from multiple sources on Monday that Cowboys OC Jason Garrett had refused the Lions' request for an interview, he interviewed yesterday.  Nobody knows where, or when, or for how long, but Garrett did sit down and interview with Lions brass.

The thing that's interesting to me is not that Garrett interviewed; the interesting thing is that the Lions not only kept it completely secret, but that some 'insiders' were kept so far in the dark that they started chirping that it wasn't going to happen--when it fact it already had.  There are two ways to look at this:

1) The Detroit Lions have been taken over by two extremely competent men on the upswing of their careers, that have been buried underneath incompetent leadership for years.  They have wrested control of the franchise, plugged the media leaks, and are quietly interviewing all of the consensus top candidates, en route to making a very solid hire.

2) The Detroit Lions have been taken over by two little kids who, once King Daddy gave them the keys to the castle, pulled up the drawbridge--and are now running up and down the halls wearing pieces of knight's armor over their PJs, knocking over statues, and drawing moustaches on the paintings.

Meanwhile, all interested parties can merely gather outside Allen Park and wait for a sign.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,tom lewand,martin mayhew,jason garrett

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Leslie Frazier Coaching Resumé: To Whom it May Concern

Leslie Frazier is a name that elicits groans from most of the Lions faithful.  He's an assistant, and moreover not a 'hot' assistant--he's moved both up AND down the coaching ladder in his career.  He's currently coaching for the Minnesota Vikings, which causes a little division-rival bile to rise in the throats of Lions fans--as well as conjure nasty thoughts of the ineffective milquetoast currently wearing the whistle there. The final nail in the coffin is Fraizer's coaching of the Tampa 2 defensive system, made infamous by Rod Marinelli's implementation of it over the past three seasons.  Leslie Frazier, it's assumed, must be a washed-up retread, brought in just because he fits the 'system' so lamely in place.  Don't be so sure.

Leslie Frazier broke into the NFL as the defensive backs coach for the Philadelphia Eagles in 1999, coaching under coordinator Jim Johnson.  While there, Frazier coached Troy Vincent, Bobby Taylor, Brian Dawkins, Al Harris, Lito Sheppard, and Sheldon Brown--all of whom but Brown have been Pro Bowlers either during or since Frazier's tenure (and he's arguably been snubbed a few times).

After three years of being a top assistant on one of the best defenses in football, Frazier got his big break: being hired away to be Marvin Lewis' defensive coordinator in Cincinnati.  Who did the Eagles promote from 'defensive assistant' to take Frazier's place?   None other than Candidate 1A himself.

In Cincinnati, Frazier came in with Lewis to turn the Bengals around--and that they did, immediately elevating the Bengals to two straight 8-8 seasons after over a decade of sub-mediocrity.  Rookie DE Robert Gaithers, rookie S Madieu Williams, and rookie OLB Landon Johnson all stepped in and not only started, but played like impact players.  It seemed as though Frazier's guidance of the defense was going to give the increasingly explosive offense the compliment it needed to be a real power in the AFC.

However, cracks in the relationship between Frazier and Lewis became apparent almost immediately.  The two came from different defensive philosophies: Lewis ran a coventional two-gap 4-3 base defense in Baltimore, but Frazier was a disciple of Jim Johnson's aggressive one-gap 4-3 scheme, which calls for a lot of outside linebacker, corner, and safety blitzes mixed with an agressive upfield push from the line.

This was very similar to the dichotomy between Rod Marinelli's Tampa Two, which relied on a one-gap front four and rarely blitzed, and Donnie Henderson's blitz-heavy 4-3, which led to Henderson's dismissal after just one season.  Not only that, the two men's coaching styles were different as well: Frazier favored the stoic, walk-softly/big stick approach, but Lewis liked to get fired up. This all culminated in Lewis wresting playcalling duties away from Frazier during an embarassing 2004 loss to the rival Browns.

After the '04 season, Lewis chose not to renew Frazier's two-year contract; the fast-track career of Leslie Frazier was derailed.  Interestingly, former Cincy LB phenom Landon Johnson was just released this offseason, and now plays a backup role with Carolina.  Robert Gaithers has managed only six sacks in the last two seasons combined.  After being forced to play linebacker due to the position being mauled by injuries last year, Madieu Williams left Cincy and signed a big free agent deal . . . to play for Frazier in Minnesota.  Marvin Lewis is now on his third defensive co-ordinator, and likely won't get the opportunity to hire a fourth.

Tony Dungy immediately saw the value in Frazier, and signed him to coach DBs in Indy.  Frazier was also given the title "Special Assistant to the Head Coach"--presumably he was a sounding board for Dungy in gameplanning and defensive strategy--and during this time learned the Tampa 2 defense from the master himself.  While in Indianapolis, Frazier guided Bob Sanders to the 2005 Pro Bowl in his rookie season.  In the playoff run in 2006, with Sanders back from injury, the Colts defense had the swagger and mojo to match its offensive firepower--and Leslie Frazier earned a 2006 Super Bowl ring.

When Tampa 2 disciple Mike Tomlin was hired away from the Vikings, they hired Leslie Frazier to step in and run the defense.  That he did, and more.  After the '07 season, Frazier had the responsibilities and title of "Assistant Head Coach" added to his nameplate.  His mission for 2008 was maintaing the defense's effectiveness against the run, while improving the pass defense.  He did that, bringing in fearsome DE Jared Allen and mixing in more man-to-man coverage to maximize CB Antoine Winfield's considerable shutdown skills.  The results in 2008?

• The Vikings ranked 6th in yardage defense, with 292.4 yards allowed per game.
• The Vikings ranking 13th in scoring defense, allowing 20.8 points per game.
• The Vikings had the stingiest rushing defense in football, allowing only 1,240 yards (3.3 ypc).
• The Vikings racked up 45 sacks, fourth-most in the NFL.

It's true that a lot of this production comes from the monster DT team of Pat and Kevin Williams.  And yet, everywhere he goes, we see a pattern: young players bloom quickly, defenses get nasty, safety play is top-notch.   Cincinnati observers see that they missed out, and Broncos fans want him.  Keeping the T2 (or a more agressive hybrid of T2 and the blitzing 4-3 style) would save having to turn over quite so much of the roster, and allow more of the 'foundation' Marinelli laid to stay in place.

While Spagnuolo is still my favorite candidate, he is definitely the belle of the ball right now. Frazier--to me--is a candidate with an equally impressive resume, who would probably already be a head coach if it weren't for the clash with Lewis.  If the Lions "settle" for Leslie Frazier, we might just end up with one hell of a coach.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,leslie frazier,minnesota vikings,cincinnati bengals,buffalo bills

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Steve Spagnuolo Coaching Resumé: to whom it may concern

Yikes!  Ol' Spags kinda jumps off the page at you there, doesn't he?  If this is what happens when you ask Steve Spagnuolo to "smile", then I think he'll be just fine as the Lions' next head coach.  For all the official-bio stuff, click the picture.

Spags comes from an excellent lineage, most notably spending seven years with the Philadelphia Eagles and studying under the master of the hyperaggressive 4-3, Jim Johnson.  Spagnuolo has been a defensive line, linebackers, and defensive backs coach and a defensive coordinator at the NFL Europe level or higher.  Intriguingly, he broke into the NFL as a player personnel intern with the Redskins in 1983.  Before you ask, Martin Mayhew was drafted by the 'Skins in 1988, so no, Spags didn't evaluate Mayhew as a player twenty years before interviewing with Mayhew for the Lions gig.  Spags also served as a scout for the Chargers in 1993 . . . if he hadn't left to take the DC gig at the University of Maine, he might have scored a AFC Championship ring from Bobby Ross' 1994 squad.

Since we just looked at the absolutely disgusting team defense stats of the Lions this year, let's cleanse our pallette by looking at the stout performances of Spag's Giants squad:

The Giants were ranked fifth in scoring defense, allowing just 18.4 points per game.  What I'm about to do just screams "internet football nerd who doesn't get it", because football is way too complex for a simple translation like this to have any real meaning, but . . . the Lions' offense mustered 16.8 points per game.  If they'd allowed an average of anywhere near 18.4 ppg, instead of the hellacious 32.3 they really did allow, they might could have got a win or two.  God, we allowed twice as many points as we scored . . . no wonder we went 0-16.

The Giants were also fifth in yardage defense, allowing only 292 yards per game.

New York also finished sixth in sacks with 42, compared to the Lions' 30.  Amazingly, this was accomplished despite losing franchise DE Michael Strahan to retirement, and heir apparent Osi Umenyiora (who's lead the Giants in sacks the last four years running).

That Spagnuolo's defense could simply plug in Justin Tuck and Matthias Kiwanauka and still be a fear-inspiring, quarterback-eating, Top 5 defense, speaks highly of the Giants' drafting, Spagnuolo's football teaching abilities, and Spags' scheming and system as well.  It's worth comparing his system to his mentor Jim Johnson's in Philly: lots of good, decent, and/or okay DEs and LBs have rotated in and out of Johnson's defenses in the past decade, yet the Philly defense is always amongst the leagues' best (this year the Eagles were ranked 4th, 3rd, and 3rd in the categories above, respectively).

I think that Spagnuolo's system is an ideal fit for the defensive talent we have--lots of one-gap pass rushers up front, lots of fast and aggressive linebackers (IMAGINE Ernie Sims blitzing every down instead of playing a short zone!).  The Lions' secondary doesn't match up to the perennially star-studded defensive backfield the Eagles boast, but in terms of talent back there, the Giants frankly don't have much the Lions don't also.  Their two starting corners are Corey Webster, a fourth-year second-round pick, whose three INTs more than doubled the two he racked up in his first three seasons, and a second-year first round pick in Aaron Ross.  Yeah, they are highly-drafted guys, but corner is the defensive mirror of WR: most CBs take several years to master technique and get burned enough to learn when to gamble and when to not gamble.  The Giants boast 17 INTs as a team, but no more than 3 by any one player (10 different players have at least one).  This suggests that the defense is working the way the Tampa 2 is supposed to: the pressure up front is creating rushed, panicked throws.  This shortens the field for the corners and safeties and prevents the defense from getting beaten deep.

Spagnuolo's teaching ability and experience at every level (line, linebackers, DBs, coordinator) of the defense is apparent.  His system would not only be a good fit for our talent, his aggressive style will make for a quick "buy-in", too.  Sims sees himself as the leader of the defense; don't you think he will react well to getting the leash taken off him and being told "Kill, Ernie!  KILL!"?  Spags is highly respected around the league, and highly sought after by other teams (he will interview for the Broncos' coaching gig today, and has already talked to the Browns).  With his background in scouting and player personnel, he will be a great help for Mayhew in finding the right defensive talent to aid a quick turnaround.  Spags is my #1 choice for the next Lions head coach--and he ought to be yours, too.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,steve spagnuolo,st. louis rams,new york giants

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Detroit Lions Coaching Search Rumors and Lies

According to regular poster 'Blog' on the Lions fan forum Lions Red Zone, former New York Jets head coach Eric Mangini spent last night at the Dearborn Ritz-Carlton.  Mangini may well have interviewed with Mayhew/Lewand/Big Willie Style, but I doubt that he is the leading candidate and I doubt that the Lions are his most favored suitor.

To wit: Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Browns will be interviewing Mangini--this is significant because Mangini not only began his career with the Browns as a ballboy, the Browns are the only team that has been reported to attract reciprocal interest from Patriots VP of Player Personnel Scott Pioli.

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Terry Foster of the Detroit News did an interview with 97.1 FM host Mike Valenti, and said that former Ravens head coach and current Fox broadcaster Brian Billick queried the Lions brass about their interest.  Apparently the Lions wanted to bring Billick into the process immediately, but Billick got cold feet, and the Lions were not going to stall their interview process to wait around for him.  It sounds as though Billick wanted to keep his options open, but the Lions are trying to move on this as soon as possible.

I've thought before that Billick would make a good fit--Jim Colletto was Billick's OL coach, RB coach Sam Gash played under Billick in Baltimore, Billick broadcast several Lions games this year and would practically not shut up about what opportunities the Lions had, what they could do better, his respect for Marinelli, etc. etc. etc.  Still, it looks as though Billick thought he might have a better gig elsewhere if he waited around, and the Lions thought they could do just fine with the candidates they have.

Early on, Billick was my favored candidate--intelligent, has a Super Bowl ring, has won in Minnesota with explosive offense, has won in Baltimore with punishing defense, kind of splits the difference between "pretty boy players coach" Mariucci and "sawed-off field general" Marinelli . . . I figured with a strong veteran GM in place, like Floyd Reese, Billick could be the right personality to get moving in a different direction.  However, with Mayhew and Lewand in place, the Lions' brass is going to be looking for a pure coach, a young fiery guy who'll stick to Xs and Os and speeches--and won't be second-guessing and undercutting them all the time.  Just a case of bad timing?  A missed opportunity?  Or the Lions making the right call in looking for someone they know is thrilled to take the job?  Only time will tell.

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From John Niyo of the Detroit news, comes an interesting quote from cornerback Leigh Bodden.

If it was a coaching staff that really appreciated me and really liked what I did as a player, then, of course.  That's really what I didn't get here, and it's hard to play for somebody like that. If they bring somebody in that respects the way I play -- because I'm one of the best in the league, and if a coaching staff can respect that -- then I'll be happy anywhere.

This jibes neatly with my earlier post--Bodden's a very good cover corner in a system that doesn't really need one.  My guess is that with a strong defensive head coach, preaching the right system, Bodden will come around.

New Lions President Tom Lewand and GM Martin Mayhew held a presser today.  Amongst the more interesting tidbits was a clarification on the power structure: Mayhew will in fact hold "final say" authority over all football matters.  However the Lions are still looking for a third authority figure to serve as an assistant GM to Mayhew.  This 'assistant GM' would almost certainly be a player personnel expert to help Mayhew out with draft and free agent acquisitions.  Tom Kowalski of mlive.com had hinted at this possible arrangement, and floated the name of former Giants GM Ernie Accorsi as the type of candidate they'd be looking at.  If we could get Accorsi in-house to do any kind of personnel work, I would be absolutely ecstatic.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,brian billick,martin mayhew,tom lewand,eric mangini,cleveland browns

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Martin mayhew moving quickly For defensive coach

The shakeup in Allen Park has been both swift and decisive.  "Decisions" coming from Big Willie Style (+posse) usually involve a lot of leaked rumors, contradictory press releases, and sometimes even contradictory press conferences (Millen: "we have decided to retain Marty Mornhinweg for next season.  Wait, what?  They fired Mooch?  Uh, everyone turn around and plug your ears for a minute while I make a couple calls .  . . ").

The way this organization typically does business, I expected the Marinelli firing midweek, the announcement of the promotion of Mayhew and Lewand in a couple-three weeks, and the coaching search to begin shortly after that.  But for once, the Lions have a least a few of their ducks in what appears to be something not unlike a row.  The power structure is in place, and the huge list of variables has already been winnowed down to one: the Head Coach.

Evidently Mayhew knows exactly what's at stake; he must get the best available candidate as soon as possible.  There are a ton of openings this offseason, and if the music stops and there are no chairs left, we're looking at a repeat of the Mornhinweg hire.  Millen waited on his first choice, Mooch, and when Mooch didn't come available, Millen poked around for a little while, and eventually settled for Mariucci's right-hand man, presumably to lay the foundation for the glorious day when Mooch would come home--we all know how both of those hires played out.

Mayhew, however, has spent his first day on the job lining up a Who's Who of hot candidates.  Adam Schefter reports that the Lions have sought permission to interview, in a mildly particular order:

• Giants Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo
• Cowboys Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett
• Titans Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz
• Vikings Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier
• Redskins Defensive Backs Coach Jerry Gray

I'll be breaking each of these down over the next couple of days, also in mildly particular order.  However, we can see a pattern emerging here: coordinators (or former coordinators) with no head-coaching experience; most from solid coaching trees; some are former players.  With the exception of Garrett, they're all defensive coaches.  I think this speaks to the crucial point: as awful as the Lions' woes at quarterback and offensive line have been, it's been the wet-newspaper defense that's really pounded the nails in the Lions' coffin.  Just look at the numbers:

Scoring Defense: Ranked 32nd--and it isn't close for 31st--with 517 points allowed (32.3 per  game!).  That's over double the amount of points that either the Steelers or Ravens allowed.

Yardage Defense: Ranked 32nd, with 6,470 yards allowed.

Passing Defense: Allowing a mere 3,716 yards passing makes slots the Lions' D 27th here, but that's highly misleading as no team had fewer passes attempted against them (an average of only 27.7 attempts per game against).  Opposing QBs, on the average, had a passer efficiency rating of 110.9--just think about that; every quarterback in the league becomes Steve Young at his peak when facing the 2008 Lions.

Rushing Defense: Ranked butt-naked last.  2,754 yards allowed on 536 carries; despite getting run at more times than any other defense save Seattle and Oakland, the Lions still allowed a mind-boggling 5.1 yards per carry.  Every running back in the league became Jim Brown against the 2008 Lions.

I knew the defense was dire . . . but looking at the numbers, this is simply unbelievable.  What's worse is that the numbers can't show how inopportune this defense was; stuffing the run on first down, getting the sack on second down, allowing the 35-yard completion on third down.  Over and over and over and over, the Lions defense would show flashes of what they were meant to be for a play or a series or even a quarter--but when it mattered, the Lions defense could be absolutely counted on to play like they had forgotten to put a few guys out on the field.

This is Marinelli's greatest failure (though arguably not the failure that actually got him fired, more on that another time): brought in as a tough-minded defensive coach who taught fundamentals, execution, and consistency above all else--hell, to the exclusion of all else--the fundamentals, execution, and consistency of this defense were all putrid.  In fact, considering the meh-to-adequate run game, the tepid efficiency + occasional Megatron passing attack, and outstanding kicking game, it was the Pop Warner tackling, blown assignments, awful run fits, overpursuing LBs, and the complete and total inability to prevent TEs from catching and scoring at will--everything Rod Marinelli preached as being vital to a team's success--that were the things most lacking from this team.  I can't explain how or why, but what he preached in practice (and if you believe everyone in Allen Park's repeated insistence, what was happening in practice) wasn't making it onto the field.  I do believe this is partly due to lack of talent--a big part of "talent" is football intelligence and instincts; you can show a horse film and give him grades but you can't make him cover a tight end downfield.  However, Rod consistently pushed to acquire raw prospects he thought he could 'coach up', yet few of these ever became more than what they were.

Speaking of which, the defensive larder is now full of Marinelli projects: DT Andre Fluellen, DEs Dewayne White and Cliff Avril, DE/DT Ikaika "Five-O" Alama-Francis, LBs Ernie Sims and Jordon Dizon, safties Daniel Bullocks and Gerald Alexander.  There are also the holdovers from the Mooch era that fit the Marinelli mold: DTs Cory Redding and Shaun Cody, LBs Paris Lenon and Alex Lewis, and CB Travis Fisher.  Finally, the Marinelli/Tampa microwave-nuked leftovers: DT Chuck Darby, LB Ryan Nece, CB/S Dwight Smith (CB Brian Kelly was released midseason).  

There are quite a few good players on that list.  The roster of presumable "keepers", starting with Marinelli's speciality, the defensive line:

Dewayne White, when healthy, has shown the ability to consistently get at the passer--though he does it more with size and strength and technique than sheer speed.  To be honest, he reminds me quite a bit of Robert Porcher.  The difference is that Porcher manned the left side, where he could square off against slower right tackles who couldn't keep pace with his speed.  White was being asked to fill the Dwight Freeney/Simeon Rice role in Marinelli's Tampa 2, where he often did well anyway.   Cliff Avril, the OLB/DE 'tweener that some saw as a 3-4 blitzing OLB (see Woodley, Lamar), didn't get much time early.  But late in the season, he consistently showed the edge speed tenacity, and awareness to sack the quarterback.  Believe it or not, Cliff Avril led all NFL rookies in sacks in 2008, with five, along with 18 solo tackles, 5 assists, 4 forced fumbles and 1 recovery.  He did this despite starting only 4 games.  The fact of the matter is, the kid's a player.  Andre Fluellen, on the other hand, barely saw the field until the bitter end, but when he did I noticed something.  Andre Fluellen was bringing guys down in the secondary for eight yard gains.  He was forcing running backs out of bounds.  He was wrapping up wideouts on WR screens, after said WRs juked the corners.  He wasn't ever collapsing the pocket or throwing guys around, but Fluellen-at 296 pounds mind you--was frequently the second or third guy in on every tackle, everywhere on the field.  That speaks volumes about A) his level of effort, and B) his athleticism.  Five-O is a DE/DT, who hasn't seen the field much, but we've heard lots about him in practice.  There's no doubt that at 6'-5" and a lean 280, he passes the eyeball test.  Yet with moderate playing time--13 games, 2 starts--he only made a mild impact: 23 tackles and 1 sack.  That level of production would probably seem like "showing good flashes" for a rookie, but he's played two full seasons now and barely made a blip.  He was supposed to be a project from the get-go, but after two seasons you'd think we'd have a little bit more to go on.  Shaun Cody, the star of not-hit reality TV show "Super Agent", spent three whole seasons on the side of a milk carton only to suddenly make an impact in rotation: in 16 games and 4 starts, Cody racked up 25 solo tackles (for a DT!), 11 assists, and 3 passes defensed.  Those numbers approach his totals for his first three seasons combined.  Again, he certainly did not set the world on fire, especially for a second-round pick in his fourth year.  He should be a RFA this season--I'd think he'd be worth tendering an offer.  The rest of the lot (Darby, Langston Moore, Jared DeVries, Landon Cohen, Corey Smith, etc.)  are veteran backups with varying degrees of value, who may or may not have a place in the new regime.

Next, the much-beleaguered linebacking corps: Ernie Sims, who was rated as the #1 recruit in America coming out of high school, has all the physical tools (eyeball test!) and mental tenacity to be an outstanding weakside linebacker.  But within this Lions defense, from his rookie year forward he has increasingly seen himself as a one-man team.  Especially in 2008, he was freelancing like crazy, and doing so increasingly to the detriment of both his production and the defense as a whole.  By the end of this year, I don't think Sims was playing for Marinelli or Barry, he was just going out there and flying by the seat of his pants.  That's a disastrous failure in the Tampa 2, which relies heavily on linebackers carrying out their assignments to a T--but with the right coach and system, Sims has the physical talent and mental tenacity be a Pro Bowler.  2008 second-rounder Jordon Dizon?  He's a total mystery.  Both Marinelli and Millen wanted Dizon, but it was obvious from the get-go that Millen thought he was drafting a Day One plug-in starter at MLB, and Marinelli thought he was getting a backup strong-side LB who could claim the starting SSLB job by the end of the season, and then be slowly tutored over the next offseason and regular season in the mysterious ninja art of the Tampa 2 Mike.  Millen forced Marinelli to put Dizon in at MLB, which he did, but only at third-string.  Dizon saw almost no reps in the middle once the bullets went live, and the instant Millen was broomed out the door, Dizon was the backup SSLB.  His body type and production scream strong-sider, but he might not have the speed to keep up with TEs and slot WRs in the Tampa 2 short zones.  Of course, if he's not playing in the Tampa 2 . . . he could concievably play Mike, his college position, in a straight 4-3, but he's quite undersized for that.  He might be best suited to play ILB in a 3-4.  Unfortunately, all the rest of these guys (starting Mike Paris Lenon, Alex Lewis, Ryan Nece, and Anthony Cannon) all fit the same mold: varyingly athletic, uniformly undersized (Lenon's the giant of the group at 235 lbs.), all veteran backups with varying degrees of value who may or may not have a place--as special teamers--in the new system.

Now, the roundly lambasted defensive secondary: Leigh Bodden came to the Lions with much fanfare: the guy we got for departed he-beast Shaun "Big Baby" Rogers.  Bodden was sort of an odd fit; a talented cover corner with ball skills, but with the frame and attitude to hit people.  A traditional Tampa 2 corner needs only to blanket a reciever for 5-7 yards, and then be strong in run support; Bodden's best talents weren't of much use.  He struggled in the system early on, and many fans labelled him a bust.  But towards the end of the season it became obvious that Bodden was the best corner the Lions had had in a long time--you just couldn't see it due to the system he played in, and the fact that every other spot on the field was a soft spot for opposing offenses.  Why throw at Bodden when you can run for 5.1 yards a carry, or throw at a green backup like former Mr. Irrelevant Ramzee Robinson? Daniel Bullocks has shown good speed and awareness at the strong safety spot; he's also shown he both loves to hit people and is good at hitting.  Third on the team with 94 tackles in (64 solo), I think he's going to be a solid piece of the puzzle for years to come.   After being drafted in the second round in 2007, Gerald Alexander showed an impressive tool set, awareness, and the makings of an outstanding free safety (even while filling in at the strong side).  I don't know what happened in the offseason, but Alexander looked completely lost this preseason--he lost his starting gig to Dwight Smith and then went down for the year with an injury in Week 5.  Who knows which Gerald Alexander will report to 2009 camp?  Travis Fisher has, to me, always been a very good nickel back and an awful starting corner.  He's got great ball skills, but has neither the deep speed, nor size and strength, to consistently cover starting wideouts in the NFL.  You can see this in his career stats--his first two years, in the Rams' corner rotation, he had 14 passes defensed and six picks.  He's had 18 PD and 3 INT in the five years since, as he's repeatedly been pressed into starting duty.  I think he'll find a way to contribute in the next regime.  I'd do the "The Rest of These Guys" roundup . . . but between injury and attrition, that's just Keith Smith.

So . . . now what?

It's clear to me that the next coach must either be a defensive coach with a strong track record (e.g., Spagnuolo or Schwartz), or be an offensive coach who brings along a DC with excellent credentials.  Moreover, that coach needs to bring in a system that matches the talent.  It's easy to look at other Tampa Two disciples, but even though I don't think "the system" was the problem, I think the defensive players are going to more easily buy into a passionate coach with an aggressive scheme.  Look at what happened in Tampa: Tony Dungy walked softly but carried a big stick, preached discipline and coached his reactive zone defense for years and years--and when they brought in firebrand Jon Gruden, the whole team stepped it up to the next level.  I think that an aggressive, blitzing 4-3 would be the best fit for this talent.  With all the aggressive, undersized linebackers, and the defensive line that--poorly or not--was built to rush the passer without help from the rest of the defense, it seems like setting the front seven to attack, and allowing Leigh Bodden and the young safeties to hold down the back end, seems like it's going to be a lot more effective than setting the back seven to 'soft zone' mode and hoping that the medicore pass rush prevents Tarvaris Jackson from actually reminding people of Donovan McNabb.

As a reminder, I'll be breaking down each of the rumored candidates--including deposed Jets HC Eric Mangini!-- in upcoming posts.  Thanks to all who've taken time to read so far!

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