The Watchtower: Lions at Cowboys

The Detroit Lions’ season hinges on this game. This week and next are two tough tests before a nice stretch of winnable games. However, with the Lions’ back-half schedule it’s conceivable the Lions could be 7-3 heading into Thanksgiving and miss the playoffs. The Lions, I think, would do just fine to get a split of the next two weeks—but if they’re 4-0 heading into Monday Night Football, they’ll be set up for biggest Lions victory in years. With the soft underbelly of their schedule coming up after that, a 5-0 start could propel the Lions into truly rarefied air.

However, if the Lions don’t win today, and can’t win on Monday Night, they’ll likely have to win their last three games to make the playoffs: at Oakland, vs. San Diego, and at Lambeau. Betting on breaking a losing streak old enough to vote and smoke cigars against the best team in football on The Frozen Tundra in January is . . . well, a bad bet.

Every year, I gnash my teeth waiting for the chance to use the current year’s data. It really, really, really helps to see what the teams are really doing—and if a systemic advantage is obvious, there have to be accurate expectations before we can accurately project under- or over-performing those expectations. This year’s wait is over.

Jason Garrett vs. Gunther Cunningham

JG

Ornk

PpG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

DPpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

‘10

DAL

7th

24.6

7.02

4.17

DET

20th

23.1

6.75

4.51

28

+13.8%

6.15

-12.4%

4.47

-0.7%

‘11

DAL

13th

23.0

8.95

3.16

DET

3rd

15.3

5.17

4.99

Last season, The Lions – Cowboys Watchtower was the first analyzing a coaching staff after a midseason firing. We took a look at Garrett’s pedigree from the Norv Turner/Ernie Zampese branch of the Air Coryell offense, and determined there wasn’t a clear systemic advantage.

In that game, the Lions’ defense held the Cowboys to 6.15 YpA, down 12.4% from their season average. The Cowboys’ running game outperformed their season average (4.17 YpC), but almost exactly met the average the Lions allowed in 2010 (4.47 attained, 4.51 avg. allowed). The Cowboys only managed to score seven points  in the first half; it wasn’t until the controversial 97-yard punt return by Bryan McCann that Kitna and the ‘Boys finally got the offense going.

Last year’s Lions managed to significantly slow down a potent passing offense—something they didn’t do often. They did it by surrendering to a middling rushing attack, but the tradeoff held the Cowboys to their scoring expectations.

This season, the Cowboys have been much more effective through the air, averaging a ridiculous 8.95 YpA—yet, partly thanks to an anemic 3.16 YpC they’re averaging fewer points per game, 23.0 vs. 24.6 last season. Meanwhile, the Lions swagger into Jerryworld with the 3rd-best scoring defense in the NFL. They’re allowing just 15.3 points per game, and a tiny 5.17 YpA. Other teams have been able to run on the Lions, though, rolling up a robust 4.99 YpC.

The Cowboys have no systemic advantage over the Lions, so I project them to meet expectations, scoring 17-20 points. If last year’s pattern holds, they will throw for 6.75-7.50 YpA, well below season averages, and run for 3.75-4.0 YpC, well above season averages. I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

Last season, I really felt the Lions had the Cowboys figured out until that back-breaking punt return changed the game. This season, the Lions will face a banged-up Tony Romo instead of Kitna—but honestly, I’m not sure that’s a clear win for Dallas. The key will be how well the Lions handle the big stage of Jerryworld, and the big expectations.

Scott Linehan vs. Rob Ryan

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Ryan	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	OAK	25th	23.9	6.67	3.79	31	+56%	8.42	+42%	4.53	23%
STL	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	OAK	18th	20.8	5.89	3.96	20	-13%	6.23	-7%	4.23	-1%
DET	27th	16.4	5.42	3.95	CLE	21st	23.4	7.44	4.57	37	+126%	9.81	+81%	3.56	-10%
DET	4th	33.7	8.45	2.80	DAL	13th	23.0	6.48	2.97

Rob Ryan started out as an assistant under . . . wait for it . . . wait . . . yes, of course, his father Buddy in Arizona. In 1994, his first season as defensive backs coach, the Cardinals held opponents to just 16.7 points per game; 4th-best in the NFL. Cornerback Aeneas Williams went to the first of what would be six consecutive Pro Bowls. In a hilarious side note, Steve Beuerlein, Jay Schroeder, and Jim McMahon (yes THAT Jim McMahon) all started at quarterback for the Cardinals that year.

After the 1995 season, the Ryan clan was let go, and after a year out of fooball Rob ended up at Oklahoma State as defensive coordinator. Ryan was named Coordinator of the Year by Sporting News in his very first season, and after two more years leading a top-notch defense, he was hired by Bill Belichick to coach the Patriots’ linebackers. Ryan coached the linebackers there from 2000-2003, and left to coordinate the Raiders defense under HC Norv Turner.

During the craziest coaching situation in recent history, Ryan remained a stalwart. Through two years of Norv, one insane year of 1994 flashback with Art Shell as head coach and Tom Walsh as OC, a year of Lane Kiffin, and then Lane Kiffin starting 2008 as a lame duck and Tom Cable taking over midway, Rob Ryan remained the defensive coordinator in Oakland.

After 2008, Ryan reunited with fellow former Pats defensive assistant Eric Mangini in Cleveland. In Ryan’s two seasons, the Browns were the 21st-ranked and 13th-ranked scoring defenses in the NFL. It wasn’t enough to keep Mangini employed, but it got Ryan hired to replace Wade Phillips as the Cowboys’ defensive signal-caller.

The apple hasn’t fallen too far from the Ryan defensive tree. If you’ve got some time, I highly recommend this Dallas Cowboys Times piece discussing Ryan’s zone blitz philosophies, and how offenses attack them due to presnap tells. It has diagrams. I like diagrams. 

When the Lions faced the other Ryan brother last season—he of the very similar hyperaggressive 3-4 defense—I thought Rex Ryan might have Linehan’s number a little bit. I based it mostly on how thoroughly Ryan dismantled Linehan’s awful 2007 Rams team. However, the Lions’ output exactly matched what I projected if there were no advantage for Rex Ryan against Linehan. So, Rex has no advantage against Linehan—but what about Rob?

In 2005, Linehan’s Dolphins faced off against Ryan’s Raiders. Linehan’s offense was the 16th-best that year, averaging 19.9 PpG. Oakland was the 25th-ranked defense, allowing 23.9 PpG. The ‘Fins exceeded their scoring average by a whopping 56%, passing and running more effectively, to boot.

This pattern was followed in 2009, when the Lions faced off against the Browns. If that sentence gave you a little twinge in the nether regions, it’s because it is the “Stafford Mic’d Up” game. The two struggling teams aired it out like crazy, and the meager 16.4 PpG Lions offense racked up 38 points, a ridiculous 128% boost. Stafford and the Lions netted 9.81 YpA, an 81% improvement over average. Some of that was just the track-meet nature of the game, but some of it, I’m convinced, was systemic.

The odd duck is the 2006 matchup, where Linehan’s 10th-ranked Rams slightly underperformed their season averages against Ryan’s 18th-ranked Raider D. The explanation, though, comes in the nature of the game: the Rams shut out the Raider offense; the Rams put it in the cooler early. They ran the ball 35 times compared to just 22 pass attempts, depressing scoring in the process.

So, we’re left to conclude that Scott Linehan’s balanced offense has a systemic passing advantage against Rob Ryan’s hyperaggressive 3-4 defense. Linehan’s offenses pass much better than expectations, and score much better than expectations, when facing a Rob Ryan defense. Therefore, I project the Lions offense to outpeform expectations, especially through the air, scoring 33-35 points. I have medium-to-high confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors

I could be wrong about the offensive advantage. The season averages could still be too wet-behind-the-ears to matter. The Lions’ offensive line could melt in the face of the hot, hot, Dallas blitz. but you know what? I think the data is right here. I like the Lions to get downfield early and often, exposing the Dallas blitz. Random prediction: Jahvid Best takes a screen pass to the house.

Conclusion

I believe this game is critical to the outcome of the Lions’ season. The Lions will be a very tough out at home, but have a vicious last three games of their schedule. To get a road win on this big of a stage would be huge, and it makes me gunshy that the data leads my proverbial horse to water. Yet, what have I to do but drink? The most likely outcome of the game is a 34-20 Lions win.

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The Watchtower: Lions At Cowboys

For the first time in the illustrious not-very-long history of the Watchtower, I have the rare privilege . . . and infuriating chore . . . of analyzing a team whose head coach has been fired midseason.  The Dallas Cowboys finally put poor Wade Phillips out of his misery, and put me squarely into mine.  Offensive coordinator Jason Garrett takes over, which would be fine and all, except . . .

Jason Garett vs. Gunther Cunningham

Ornk

PpG

YpA

YpC

Gun

Drnk

DPpG

DYpA

DYpC

PTS

PTSΔ

YpA

YpAΔ

YpC

YpCΔ

2010

DAL

19th

21.6

7.45

3.61

DET

20th

22.4

6.80

4.68

Jason Garrett hasn't ever faced Gunther Cunningham, which isn’t surprising since Garrett’s only been a coordinator since 2007, and Gunther was out of work in 2007, and the Cowboys didn’t play the Lions last year.  On first blush, Garrett doesn’t come from any specific coaching tree, either.  However, Jason was NFL quarterback for over a decade—including a long stint in Dallas where he held the clipboard for Cowboy coordinators Norv Turner and Ernie Zampese.  It’s then when Garrett learned the tenets of the Air Coryell offense.

It's the father of many offenses in the NFL—a major reason the Bears could transition coordinators from Ron Turner (Norv’s brother) to Mike Martz in one season without a wholesale change in terminology.  Timing routes and a modular route-numbering system allow for the easy construction of devastating pass route combinations.  Whether it’s paired with a power running game, a la Norv’s Cowboys and Chargers, or a crazy singleback-who-flexes-to-WR approach like Martz’s, Don Coryell's passing system is still potent.

The Cowboys don’t feature lots of four and five wide like Martz does—tight end Jason Witten is too potent to be shelved—but the running game has been a largely ineffective platoon of Felix Jones, Marion Barber, and Tashard Choice.  Barber, especially, has been a shell of his former “Barberian” self, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.  Without an effective running game, the Cowboys’ passing attack has been keyed on by opposing defenses—still, the talented targets the ‘Boys boast have been enough to muster 21.6 points per game (19th-best in the NFL).  Despite the one-dimensionality of their offense, they’ve been averaging 7.45 YpA through the air, which is excellent.

The Lions have faced several offenses that branch off of the late Don Coryell’s coaching tree, including all of the above.  They currently boast the 20th-ranked scoring defense in the NFL (the best they’ve been ranked since I started doing this), allowing 22.4 PpG.  These two units are very, very equally matched, so any systemic advantage could be a huge one.  There isn't any data for Jason Garrett, but let's go barking up his coaching tree for a substitute, shall we?

Arguably, the implementation closest to Garrett’s would be Norv Turner’s—and in a prior Watchtowering of Ron Turner, I examined Norv as a Ron equivalent:

IF we consider Ron and Norv Turner interchangable—and we don't—then given greater, equal, or lesser talent, Gunther Cunningham's hyperagressive 4-3 appears to match expectations versus a Turner Bros. Coryell-style downfield passing offense (albeit while generating very high sack and turnover numbers). That is to say there is no systemic advantage or disadvantage for either team.

The task now should be to do that thing I do with the averages.  However, the Cowboys seemed to “wake up” in a big way after Garrett was handed the keys: the 1-6 Cowboys went into Your Company Name Here Stadium and whooped the Giants, 33-20.  Has Garrett catalyzed the Cowboys’ considerable talent? Are the 2-7 ‘Boys are going to be a tough out the rest of the way?  Well . .  . maybe.  It’s true that the offense looked more competent through the air—but seven of those 33 points were scored on an interception return, and the Cowboys were already averaging nearly 22 points a game—the big difference was in how the defense played, not the offense.  Therefore, I’m not going to inflate the Cowboys’ offensive expectations beyond their season averages to this point.

Given no systemic advantage or disadvantage, Jason Garrett’s implementation of the Air Coryell offense should meet expectations against Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3, scoring 21-24 points, averaging 8.0-to-9.0 YpA, and 3.5 to 3.75 YpC.  I have low confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, first, I could be wrong about the whole “catalyst” thing.  Maybe Garrett shoved Wade out of the drivers’ seat, mashed the pedal to the floor, and now the Cowboys are rocketing down a windblown Texas highway, Phillips choking on dust and burnt rubber.  Then again, maybe last week was a one-off Perfect Storm of motivation and execution for their new coach, and they’ll settle right back into their averages from here on out.  Then again, maybe Williams and Kitna have vengeance on their mind?  In the other direction, the Cowboys’ pass protection could break down—the offensive line has youth and ability, but never both in the same body—and the Lions’ pass rush could tee off.  I suspect, though, that if I’m wrong on this projection, I’ll miss low.

Scott Linehan vs. Wade Phillips

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC		Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
MIN	6th	26.0	7.60	4.75	ATL	30th	26.4	5.23	4.48	35	35%	9.96	31%	4.37	-8%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	SDC	13th	19.5	6.35	3.49	23	16%	10.4	75%	2.73	-26%
STL	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	SDC	7th	18.9	5.97	4.18	24	5%	8.18	22%	4.81	13%
STL	28th	16.4	5.63	3.78	DAL	13th	20.3	5.87	4.17	0	~	4.77	-15%	2.95	-22%
STL	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	DAL	18th	22.6	5.11	4.24	34	134%	9.05	60%	5.28	34%
DET	11th	23.9	5.87	3.43	DAL	29th	28.0	7.57	4.34

Again, I feel a little odd Watchtowering a coach who's not coaching.  Newly-minted DC Paul Pasqualoni was the assistant with the most experience in the 3-4 alignment the Cowboys run—obviously, the scheme will not change drastically from what was in place.  There is a solid bit of history here between Linehan and Phillips, though, so I’ll go over it briefly.

In 2003, the 6th-ranked Vikings took on Phillips’ 30th-ranked Falcons (after Phillips had ascended to interim head coach midseason); the Vikings scored 35%  above their usual 26 points per game—right in line with expectations.  In 2005, the Dolphins—with Jason Garrett as quarterbacks coach!—were the 16th-ranked offense, going up against Wade’s Chargers, ranked 13th.  The Fins actually exceeded expectations a tiny bit, scoring three more points than their season average against a slightly-above-median defense—but nowhere near enough to suspect a systemic advantage.

In 2006, the Rams were ranked a solid 10th in the NFL in scoring, at 22.9 PpG.  The Chargers were even better, ranked seventh and allowing just 18.9. Surprisingly, the Rams managed to score 24 points, five percent about their season average.  They did it while rushing and passing at effectiveness levels above their year’s average, as well.  Unfortunately, here is where the happy times stop.

In 2007 the Rams were 28th scoring offense, averaging 16.4 points per game.  However, they were without Steven Jackson, and the Cowboys shut them out.  Wade’s D held the Rams to just 2.95 YpC, and 4.77 YpA, while the offense scored exactly zero points (Dante Hall did notch a punt return TD).  The next season, two weeks after Linehan had been fired, the Rams and their anemic 14.5 point-per-game offense hosted the 18th-ranked Cowboys and . . . scored 34 points?!

Yup, they sure did, and were sixty and thirty-four percent more effective through the air and ground, to in the process.  What caused such an outburst?  No clue.  According to Pro Football Reference, it was 72 degrees, windless, on FieldTurf, and all the starters played . . . the Rams just had the Cowboys’ number that day.

It looks as though the Linehan offense has a decided advantage over Wade Phillips’ 3-4 when the passing game is working early—passing to set up the run, as it were.  I’m therefore comfortable concluding that Scott Linehan balanced offenses have a mild systemic scoring advantage against Wade Phillips 3-4 defenses, especially when the passing game works well early.

Even given last Sunday’s wretched performance, the Lions still boast the NFL’s eleventh-best scoring offense, averaging 23.9 points per game.  Dallas’ defense has been putried, though—even last week’s surprising limitation of the Giants’ offense to 20 only lowered their season average to 28 points per game.  They’re allowing 7.57 yards on every pass attempt, and 4.34 yards on every carry.  The defense simply hasn’t been the unit we’ve seen in the Big D over the past few seasons, and that’s been their downfall as much as anything.

Expectations would hold that the Lions score better than their season average against the Cowboys, and that the Cowboys allow slightly more than usual against the Lions.  There, theoretically, is a mild scoring advantage for the Lions, but the defense did play markedly better in its first game under Pasqualoni—so I’ll call those two factors a wash.  I project the Lions’ offense to match expectations against the Cowboys, scoring 25-to-30 points, averaging 6-to-7 YpA, and 3.75-to-4 YpC.  I have medium-to-high confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

It's the Lions on the road.

Conclusion:

I cannot believe I’m about to do this after the past two weeks.  I projected the Lions to beat the Jets, and they blew a 10-point 4th-quarter lead and lost in overtime.  I projected the Lions to handle the Bills, and they completely failed to show up.  If the Lions are the Lions we saw all year up until last Sunday, they’re a better team than the Cowboys and should win.  If the Lions are the Lions we saw all decade, forget about it.  Interestingly, though, I think the shoes from last week are on the other foot: the Cowboys are fresh off a fantastic performance, feeling their oats, thinking they're way better than the lowly Lions they're about to face--even though both teams have putrid records.  After mailing it in last week, the Lions ought to be revved up to prove they are who we thought they were.  All that aside, though, the numbers show these two teams to be very evenly matched, but with a definite offensive edge for the Lions.

Hesitatingly, gulpingly, and with an extreme chance of heartbreak, I declare that the most likely outcome of the game is a 27-24 Lions win.  Heaven help me.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,dallas cowboys,wade phillips,jason garrett,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan,paul pasqualoni

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Martin Mayhew Knows Allen Park's Walls Have Ears

There was an awful lot of media snickering being heard after Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand held their mutual introductory press conference.  From Lewand getting players' names horribly wrong, to Mayhew claiming he was the best one to fix Millen's mistakes because he was Millen's top assistant when he made them . . . well, it wasn't well recieved.  But buried in the middle of that press conference was an interesting quote from Mr. Mayhew about their draft strategy:

"I'll speak on that a little bit, but let me preface that - talking about that - by saying that I think where we've hurt ourselves in the past is by talking too much. I've been there prior to the draft and I've seen us get out there and talk about our needs and what kind of players that we're looking for and I've seen you guys and others hone in on what our needs are. I read the clips for every NFL team 365 days a year; I read everybody's clips and I read what's going on. And I'm doing that looking for a competitive edge and what I don't want to do is be the person that gives somebody else a competitive edge on us. So I'll talk a little bit about that, but I won't get into a lot of detail about what our needs our and what direction that we plan on going."

Well he sure wasn't whistling Dixie.  According to Tom Kowalski (during a radio interview on WDFN), there's been an unprecedented "information lockdown" in Allen Park.   It seems to be true; the only real leads we have on the coaching search are form other team's beat writers reporting on official requests for interview permission.  Chris Mortensen threw out the names Jim Schwartz and Mike Mularkey as names to watch--and ESPN trumped that up into "Mort reports Schwartz and Mularkey are #1 and #2 in Lions coaching search", which isn't what he really said at all.

Well, today we got quite the interesting bombshell from NFL.com's Adam Schefter: after hearing from multiple sources on Monday that Cowboys OC Jason Garrett had refused the Lions' request for an interview, he interviewed yesterday.  Nobody knows where, or when, or for how long, but Garrett did sit down and interview with Lions brass.

The thing that's interesting to me is not that Garrett interviewed; the interesting thing is that the Lions not only kept it completely secret, but that some 'insiders' were kept so far in the dark that they started chirping that it wasn't going to happen--when it fact it already had.  There are two ways to look at this:

1) The Detroit Lions have been taken over by two extremely competent men on the upswing of their careers, that have been buried underneath incompetent leadership for years.  They have wrested control of the franchise, plugged the media leaks, and are quietly interviewing all of the consensus top candidates, en route to making a very solid hire.

2) The Detroit Lions have been taken over by two little kids who, once King Daddy gave them the keys to the castle, pulled up the drawbridge--and are now running up and down the halls wearing pieces of knight's armor over their PJs, knocking over statues, and drawing moustaches on the paintings.

Meanwhile, all interested parties can merely gather outside Allen Park and wait for a sign.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,tom lewand,martin mayhew,jason garrett

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Martin mayhew moving quickly For defensive coach

The shakeup in Allen Park has been both swift and decisive.  "Decisions" coming from Big Willie Style (+posse) usually involve a lot of leaked rumors, contradictory press releases, and sometimes even contradictory press conferences (Millen: "we have decided to retain Marty Mornhinweg for next season.  Wait, what?  They fired Mooch?  Uh, everyone turn around and plug your ears for a minute while I make a couple calls .  . . ").

The way this organization typically does business, I expected the Marinelli firing midweek, the announcement of the promotion of Mayhew and Lewand in a couple-three weeks, and the coaching search to begin shortly after that.  But for once, the Lions have a least a few of their ducks in what appears to be something not unlike a row.  The power structure is in place, and the huge list of variables has already been winnowed down to one: the Head Coach.

Evidently Mayhew knows exactly what's at stake; he must get the best available candidate as soon as possible.  There are a ton of openings this offseason, and if the music stops and there are no chairs left, we're looking at a repeat of the Mornhinweg hire.  Millen waited on his first choice, Mooch, and when Mooch didn't come available, Millen poked around for a little while, and eventually settled for Mariucci's right-hand man, presumably to lay the foundation for the glorious day when Mooch would come home--we all know how both of those hires played out.

Mayhew, however, has spent his first day on the job lining up a Who's Who of hot candidates.  Adam Schefter reports that the Lions have sought permission to interview, in a mildly particular order:

• Giants Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo
• Cowboys Offensive Coordinator Jason Garrett
• Titans Defensive Coordinator Jim Schwartz
• Vikings Defensive Coordinator Leslie Frazier
• Redskins Defensive Backs Coach Jerry Gray

I'll be breaking each of these down over the next couple of days, also in mildly particular order.  However, we can see a pattern emerging here: coordinators (or former coordinators) with no head-coaching experience; most from solid coaching trees; some are former players.  With the exception of Garrett, they're all defensive coaches.  I think this speaks to the crucial point: as awful as the Lions' woes at quarterback and offensive line have been, it's been the wet-newspaper defense that's really pounded the nails in the Lions' coffin.  Just look at the numbers:

Scoring Defense: Ranked 32nd--and it isn't close for 31st--with 517 points allowed (32.3 per  game!).  That's over double the amount of points that either the Steelers or Ravens allowed.

Yardage Defense: Ranked 32nd, with 6,470 yards allowed.

Passing Defense: Allowing a mere 3,716 yards passing makes slots the Lions' D 27th here, but that's highly misleading as no team had fewer passes attempted against them (an average of only 27.7 attempts per game against).  Opposing QBs, on the average, had a passer efficiency rating of 110.9--just think about that; every quarterback in the league becomes Steve Young at his peak when facing the 2008 Lions.

Rushing Defense: Ranked butt-naked last.  2,754 yards allowed on 536 carries; despite getting run at more times than any other defense save Seattle and Oakland, the Lions still allowed a mind-boggling 5.1 yards per carry.  Every running back in the league became Jim Brown against the 2008 Lions.

I knew the defense was dire . . . but looking at the numbers, this is simply unbelievable.  What's worse is that the numbers can't show how inopportune this defense was; stuffing the run on first down, getting the sack on second down, allowing the 35-yard completion on third down.  Over and over and over and over, the Lions defense would show flashes of what they were meant to be for a play or a series or even a quarter--but when it mattered, the Lions defense could be absolutely counted on to play like they had forgotten to put a few guys out on the field.

This is Marinelli's greatest failure (though arguably not the failure that actually got him fired, more on that another time): brought in as a tough-minded defensive coach who taught fundamentals, execution, and consistency above all else--hell, to the exclusion of all else--the fundamentals, execution, and consistency of this defense were all putrid.  In fact, considering the meh-to-adequate run game, the tepid efficiency + occasional Megatron passing attack, and outstanding kicking game, it was the Pop Warner tackling, blown assignments, awful run fits, overpursuing LBs, and the complete and total inability to prevent TEs from catching and scoring at will--everything Rod Marinelli preached as being vital to a team's success--that were the things most lacking from this team.  I can't explain how or why, but what he preached in practice (and if you believe everyone in Allen Park's repeated insistence, what was happening in practice) wasn't making it onto the field.  I do believe this is partly due to lack of talent--a big part of "talent" is football intelligence and instincts; you can show a horse film and give him grades but you can't make him cover a tight end downfield.  However, Rod consistently pushed to acquire raw prospects he thought he could 'coach up', yet few of these ever became more than what they were.

Speaking of which, the defensive larder is now full of Marinelli projects: DT Andre Fluellen, DEs Dewayne White and Cliff Avril, DE/DT Ikaika "Five-O" Alama-Francis, LBs Ernie Sims and Jordon Dizon, safties Daniel Bullocks and Gerald Alexander.  There are also the holdovers from the Mooch era that fit the Marinelli mold: DTs Cory Redding and Shaun Cody, LBs Paris Lenon and Alex Lewis, and CB Travis Fisher.  Finally, the Marinelli/Tampa microwave-nuked leftovers: DT Chuck Darby, LB Ryan Nece, CB/S Dwight Smith (CB Brian Kelly was released midseason).  

There are quite a few good players on that list.  The roster of presumable "keepers", starting with Marinelli's speciality, the defensive line:

Dewayne White, when healthy, has shown the ability to consistently get at the passer--though he does it more with size and strength and technique than sheer speed.  To be honest, he reminds me quite a bit of Robert Porcher.  The difference is that Porcher manned the left side, where he could square off against slower right tackles who couldn't keep pace with his speed.  White was being asked to fill the Dwight Freeney/Simeon Rice role in Marinelli's Tampa 2, where he often did well anyway.   Cliff Avril, the OLB/DE 'tweener that some saw as a 3-4 blitzing OLB (see Woodley, Lamar), didn't get much time early.  But late in the season, he consistently showed the edge speed tenacity, and awareness to sack the quarterback.  Believe it or not, Cliff Avril led all NFL rookies in sacks in 2008, with five, along with 18 solo tackles, 5 assists, 4 forced fumbles and 1 recovery.  He did this despite starting only 4 games.  The fact of the matter is, the kid's a player.  Andre Fluellen, on the other hand, barely saw the field until the bitter end, but when he did I noticed something.  Andre Fluellen was bringing guys down in the secondary for eight yard gains.  He was forcing running backs out of bounds.  He was wrapping up wideouts on WR screens, after said WRs juked the corners.  He wasn't ever collapsing the pocket or throwing guys around, but Fluellen-at 296 pounds mind you--was frequently the second or third guy in on every tackle, everywhere on the field.  That speaks volumes about A) his level of effort, and B) his athleticism.  Five-O is a DE/DT, who hasn't seen the field much, but we've heard lots about him in practice.  There's no doubt that at 6'-5" and a lean 280, he passes the eyeball test.  Yet with moderate playing time--13 games, 2 starts--he only made a mild impact: 23 tackles and 1 sack.  That level of production would probably seem like "showing good flashes" for a rookie, but he's played two full seasons now and barely made a blip.  He was supposed to be a project from the get-go, but after two seasons you'd think we'd have a little bit more to go on.  Shaun Cody, the star of not-hit reality TV show "Super Agent", spent three whole seasons on the side of a milk carton only to suddenly make an impact in rotation: in 16 games and 4 starts, Cody racked up 25 solo tackles (for a DT!), 11 assists, and 3 passes defensed.  Those numbers approach his totals for his first three seasons combined.  Again, he certainly did not set the world on fire, especially for a second-round pick in his fourth year.  He should be a RFA this season--I'd think he'd be worth tendering an offer.  The rest of the lot (Darby, Langston Moore, Jared DeVries, Landon Cohen, Corey Smith, etc.)  are veteran backups with varying degrees of value, who may or may not have a place in the new regime.

Next, the much-beleaguered linebacking corps: Ernie Sims, who was rated as the #1 recruit in America coming out of high school, has all the physical tools (eyeball test!) and mental tenacity to be an outstanding weakside linebacker.  But within this Lions defense, from his rookie year forward he has increasingly seen himself as a one-man team.  Especially in 2008, he was freelancing like crazy, and doing so increasingly to the detriment of both his production and the defense as a whole.  By the end of this year, I don't think Sims was playing for Marinelli or Barry, he was just going out there and flying by the seat of his pants.  That's a disastrous failure in the Tampa 2, which relies heavily on linebackers carrying out their assignments to a T--but with the right coach and system, Sims has the physical talent and mental tenacity be a Pro Bowler.  2008 second-rounder Jordon Dizon?  He's a total mystery.  Both Marinelli and Millen wanted Dizon, but it was obvious from the get-go that Millen thought he was drafting a Day One plug-in starter at MLB, and Marinelli thought he was getting a backup strong-side LB who could claim the starting SSLB job by the end of the season, and then be slowly tutored over the next offseason and regular season in the mysterious ninja art of the Tampa 2 Mike.  Millen forced Marinelli to put Dizon in at MLB, which he did, but only at third-string.  Dizon saw almost no reps in the middle once the bullets went live, and the instant Millen was broomed out the door, Dizon was the backup SSLB.  His body type and production scream strong-sider, but he might not have the speed to keep up with TEs and slot WRs in the Tampa 2 short zones.  Of course, if he's not playing in the Tampa 2 . . . he could concievably play Mike, his college position, in a straight 4-3, but he's quite undersized for that.  He might be best suited to play ILB in a 3-4.  Unfortunately, all the rest of these guys (starting Mike Paris Lenon, Alex Lewis, Ryan Nece, and Anthony Cannon) all fit the same mold: varyingly athletic, uniformly undersized (Lenon's the giant of the group at 235 lbs.), all veteran backups with varying degrees of value who may or may not have a place--as special teamers--in the new system.

Now, the roundly lambasted defensive secondary: Leigh Bodden came to the Lions with much fanfare: the guy we got for departed he-beast Shaun "Big Baby" Rogers.  Bodden was sort of an odd fit; a talented cover corner with ball skills, but with the frame and attitude to hit people.  A traditional Tampa 2 corner needs only to blanket a reciever for 5-7 yards, and then be strong in run support; Bodden's best talents weren't of much use.  He struggled in the system early on, and many fans labelled him a bust.  But towards the end of the season it became obvious that Bodden was the best corner the Lions had had in a long time--you just couldn't see it due to the system he played in, and the fact that every other spot on the field was a soft spot for opposing offenses.  Why throw at Bodden when you can run for 5.1 yards a carry, or throw at a green backup like former Mr. Irrelevant Ramzee Robinson? Daniel Bullocks has shown good speed and awareness at the strong safety spot; he's also shown he both loves to hit people and is good at hitting.  Third on the team with 94 tackles in (64 solo), I think he's going to be a solid piece of the puzzle for years to come.   After being drafted in the second round in 2007, Gerald Alexander showed an impressive tool set, awareness, and the makings of an outstanding free safety (even while filling in at the strong side).  I don't know what happened in the offseason, but Alexander looked completely lost this preseason--he lost his starting gig to Dwight Smith and then went down for the year with an injury in Week 5.  Who knows which Gerald Alexander will report to 2009 camp?  Travis Fisher has, to me, always been a very good nickel back and an awful starting corner.  He's got great ball skills, but has neither the deep speed, nor size and strength, to consistently cover starting wideouts in the NFL.  You can see this in his career stats--his first two years, in the Rams' corner rotation, he had 14 passes defensed and six picks.  He's had 18 PD and 3 INT in the five years since, as he's repeatedly been pressed into starting duty.  I think he'll find a way to contribute in the next regime.  I'd do the "The Rest of These Guys" roundup . . . but between injury and attrition, that's just Keith Smith.

So . . . now what?

It's clear to me that the next coach must either be a defensive coach with a strong track record (e.g., Spagnuolo or Schwartz), or be an offensive coach who brings along a DC with excellent credentials.  Moreover, that coach needs to bring in a system that matches the talent.  It's easy to look at other Tampa Two disciples, but even though I don't think "the system" was the problem, I think the defensive players are going to more easily buy into a passionate coach with an aggressive scheme.  Look at what happened in Tampa: Tony Dungy walked softly but carried a big stick, preached discipline and coached his reactive zone defense for years and years--and when they brought in firebrand Jon Gruden, the whole team stepped it up to the next level.  I think that an aggressive, blitzing 4-3 would be the best fit for this talent.  With all the aggressive, undersized linebackers, and the defensive line that--poorly or not--was built to rush the passer without help from the rest of the defense, it seems like setting the front seven to attack, and allowing Leigh Bodden and the young safeties to hold down the back end, seems like it's going to be a lot more effective than setting the back seven to 'soft zone' mode and hoping that the medicore pass rush prevents Tarvaris Jackson from actually reminding people of Donovan McNabb.

As a reminder, I'll be breaking down each of the rumored candidates--including deposed Jets HC Eric Mangini!-- in upcoming posts.  Thanks to all who've taken time to read so far!

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