Three Cups Deep: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

Eight wins.

The Lions have won eight games.

For the first time in eleven years, the Lions will not have a losing season.

Since Bobby Ross quit midseason, and former U-of-M head coach Gary Moeller took the reins. Since Charlie Batch was the starting quarterback. Since Desmond Howard was the star returner. Since Jason Hanson . . . okay, bad example.

Lost in the hubbub of a missed facemask call that may or may not have affected the outcome of the game, the mysterious failure of the offense to score more than 20 points when the defense handed them the ball four times, and the infuriating transformation of Joe Webb into Mike Vick, was the Lions shattering a seven-win glass ceiling that stymied each of their last three head coaches.

As I said on the Fireside Chat, this was a bizarre, disorienting game. The offense moved the ball effectively. Matthew Stafford’s stats looked great. The defense got six turnovers and converted two of them directly into 14 points. There are hints of the problem in the 269 rushing yards surrendered and 72 rushing yards gained, but even that doesn’t explain the bizarre inability the Lions had to put the Vikings away.

Throughout the game, folks watching at home hit me up on Twitter and via text to ask me what was wrong with the crowd. The “Lions Nation Army” of Ford Field was more like Bingo Night at the VFW Hall.

In the crowd’s defense, it was a hard game to get into. The lighting-fast run up to 28-7 made it feel like the rout was on. It felt like, just as with the preseason games and Kansas City and Denver, the switch had been flipped and the good-old-fashioned woodshedding everyone had hoped for (and was secretly expecting) was underway.

When that rout didn’t come, it took the crowd out of the game. When the Vikings started creeping back into it, it really made the crowd antsy. When time after time after time, the Lions found a way to fail to put a dagger in the Vikings’ hearts, the crowd grew restless. There were even boos audible on 4th down decisions to punt and/or kick field goals. Boos, mind you, when the Lions were still leading by multiple scores.

It was hard to get into it when the Lions couldn’t put the Vikings out of it. It was hard to get loud when we were trying to figure out what the heck was going on. It was hard to get amped for a defense that’s so convinced Joe Webb can’t possibly beat them throwing that Joe Webb was killing them on the ground.

None of this excuses the crowd, of course. I think we’ve already grown happy and fat on expectations. If we Lions fans want a reputation as a huge home field advantage, if we want to keep earning game balls, if we want to keep other teams practicing with fake noise set at 120 dB, we have to arrive loud and stay loud. We can’t just wait to see if it’ll be worth our effort and then buy in. The team needs our support for four quarters; let’s give it to them. Also, I saw some “fans” heading for the exits during Minnesota’s final drive. As I said on Twitter, I have some words for those folks: NEVER COME BACK.

Ultimately, the Lions got the ‘W’, and in terms of the season that’s all that counts. At 8-5 the Lions are a game up on the Bears, Cowboys, and Giants—all of whom can’t string two wins together to save their lives. With the division win over the Vikings, and the Bears’ common-opponent loss to Denver, the Lions now have the tiebreaker over the Bears, on top of the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Cowboys. With three games to play, the Lions have an effective two-game lead on both the Cowboys and the Bears, and a one-game lead on the Giants.

But of course, one of the Cowboys or Giants will win the NFC East, meaning the Lions and Falcons are essentially in a two-horse race for two spots. If the Lions take care of business in Oakland, they’ll earn their first out-and-out winning season since that fateful 2000 campaign. After that, the Lions could clinch a playoff berth at home against the Chargers, completing their first 10-win season since 1995—not coincidentally, the year Scott Mitchell set all the passing records Matthew Stafford is on track to break. That game falls on December 24th . . . and what a wonderful Christmas present that would be.

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Scott Mitchell, Matthew Stafford, and the Ghosts of Thanksgiving Classics Past

“They’ll never win anything with that quarterback.” My grandfather’s steel jaw was set like a trap. His eyes were narrowed into burning slits. Bellies full of turkey and trimmings, he and I were ‘relaxing’ after dinner by—what else?—watching the Lions.

It being 1995, Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus didn’t exist. Dividing yards  by carries to explain why Barry Sanders is better than Emmitt Smith got you branded a pencil-necked geek playing with fake voodoo numbers. Still, my 14-year-old self refused to let that statement go unchallenged.

Unfortunately, being challenged wasn’t exactly my Grandpa’s thing.

"Well . . ." I ventured, swallowing hard. "Actually, Grandpa, Scott Mitchell’s been having an awesome year. I mean, his completion percentage is up around sixty, he’s got a two-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio, he’s on pace to throw for well over four thousand yards . . .”

“He’s a bum,” said my Grandpa. His eyes never wavered from the wood-cabinet-enclosed TV.

An airtight argument, to be sure. But . . . I mean, couldn’t he see? The Lions were outgaining everyone in football! Barry Sanders! Herman Moore! I mustered my logics, and cleared my throat.

“A BUM.” The matter was closed.

Of course, the Lions went on to win that game, 44-38. Mitchell completed 30 of 45 passes for 410 yards, four touchdowns, and just one pick. Barry reeled off 138 yards on 24 carries, including a 50-yard touchdown run. I was quite satisfied with myself; logic and reason and faithful fandom had won the day. These Lions and their incredible air attack were certainly on their way to greatness.

My grandfather wasn’t happy the Lions won that day, at least not visibly so. He seemed appeased. Like, at least this time, the Lions’ absence of bumbling was acceptable to him. Meanwhile, I was punch-drunk on Lions Kool-Aid.

The Lions reeled off four more consecutive victories (seven total) to make the playoffs. Mitchell and the Lions were the second-highest-scoring offense in the NFL that year. Mitchell’s 58.3% completion percentage, 4,338 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions made for the best statistical season any Lions quarterback has had in my lifetime. I thought it was the beginning of a 49ers-esque run of offensive dominance.

Unfortunately, Scott Mitchell was a bum; those Lions never won anything.

As we speak, Matthew Stafford is on pace to complete 61.3% of his passes for 4,548 yards, 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The Lions are the 3rd-highest-scoring team in football. These Lions are 7-3, not 5-6, going into the hallowed Thanksgiving Day game—but unlike 1995, the 2011 Lions started hot. It’s technically possible for these Lions to win their last seven games like the ‘95 team did—but after the midseason stumbles, and with the remaining schedule, that seems like a ridiculous pipe dream.

Just how good are these Lions? We’re still not sure. Are they the team that started 5-0? The team that went 1-3 from mid-October to mid-November? Are they headed for a mediocre 9-7 finish, or an outstanding 12-4? Matthew Stafford is not a bum—but 16 years from now, will he be remembered as the second coming of John Elway, or the second coming of Carson Palmer?

This Thanksgiving Day game will be the truest test of the Lions mettle. The Packers are undefeated; the undisputed reigning champions of the NFL. They’re comfortably atop the NFC North division standings. Until the ultimate crucible of Lambeau Field in Week 17, the Lions will not have a better chance to prove they belong amongst the best of the NFL.

I'm thankful that chance comes during the Lions’ annual showcase game. I’m thankful they can slam the door, once and for all, on decades of futility while a nation full of doubters looks on. I’m thankful they’ll be able to put a barbed-wire fence around Ford Field, and the generations of tradition the Thanksgiving game is imbued with.

Above all, I’m thankful that for the first time in my life, I’ll be there.

That’s right, I’ll be making the Pilgrimage to the Thanksgiving Classic. It’s on the bucket list of every true Lions fan, and I cannot be happier that I’ll be able to scratch it off my own. I’ll be there to cheer the Lions on with everything I’ve got, and give the Lions every possible advantage over the Packers—who, if history holds, will have an audible contingent of supporters there, too.

Though moral victories don’t count, and a good show in a “noble loss” would be bitterly disappointing for all these wonderful opportunities left hanging,  it wouldn’t end the Lions season. If they take care of business against the Vikingses and the Chargerses of the world, the Lions can still make the playoffs without a ‘W’ on T-day.

But, if they can pass this test, if they can fell these giants, every Lions fan everywhere will be able to rejoice: finally, finally, the Lions have taken their place amongst the very best teams in football . . .

. . . and somewhere, my Grandpa will stand up and cheer.

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On Film Buffs, Enlightenment, and the Red Pill

This recent Ross Tucker article on SI.com tickled my fancy for many reasons.  First, it deals primarily with the importance of film review; as many of you know I’m a wholehearted believer!  Tucker interviews Greg Cosell, an NFL Films employee--and the creator of NFL Matchup, ESPN’s incredible film breakdown show.  As a youth, I never missed an episode; it was worth Herculean effort to peel myself out of bed at 7:30 on Sundays.

The amount you can learn from watching what’s really happening is enormous.  I’ve called it “the red pill” of fandom; once you slow it down and watch what’s really happening, all the easy “he sucks” and “he rocks” stuff goes right out the window.  Players you think can do no wrong do, and players you think are worthless prove their worth.  Once you’ve watched one player for a hundred snaps in a row, you understand his play better than if you read a million words written about him on message boards and forums.

As a wide-eyed youth I watched, enraptured, as Ron Jaworski break down Tom Moore’s play-action based offense.  Some of you might know Moore as the Colts’ longtime offensive coordinator; the man who built Peyton Manning into Peyton Manning.  But as my pimply self sat in my beanbag chair, Moore was calling signals for the Lions.

That's right, Moore became the Lions’ OC in 1995—and quarterback Scott Mitchell had the year of his life: 4,338 yards, 32 touchdowns, and only 12 interceptions.  In that episode of Edge NFL Matchup (as it then was), Jaws broke down how well the Lions’ offensive line “sold” the run, which in turn dramatically increased the effectiveness of the play fake.  When I saw from the end zone camera how the line’s “run blocking” made the linebackers creep up, the play fake made the safety bite, and Mitchell’s inexplicable pass to nothing in the wide-open middle of the field became gloriously on-target when the wideout made his break, the scales fell from my bleary eyes.

As Tucker says, NFL folk get access to two critical angles: the “all-22,” a sideline view that extends from the tailback to the safeties, and the end-zone camera, which records action along the axis of play.  Grading secondary play is almost impossible without the first, and understanding the distances, spaces, and angles involved in football is difficult without the second.

Tucker laments the loss of his access to those film angles; they’re only available at NFL Films HQ, or NFL team facilities.  So, uh, if the Detroit Lions wouldn’t mind declaring my basement an official “team facility,” I’d really appreciate it.  Yes.  I would.

Another topic of interest Tucker touches upon, something I’ve spent a lot of time looking into lately:  the relationship between pass rushing, pass coverage, and pass defense.  Specifically, he asks Cosell whether, if starting a franchise, he’d rather have an elite pass rusher or an elite cover corner.  Cosell says:

"If the players are equivalent in terms of skill set and impact, I think you always have to go with the pass rusher."

I can’t put that data point on a scatter plot, but it’s valuable nonetheless.  There was one other part that got me all warm and fuzzy inside, this time about a certain quarterback, and his fellow 2009 top-five draft pick:

"Stafford is a more gifted passer than Sanchez. He has a more complete skill set for the position. His issue, which was a function of his team last year, is that because of his big arm he has a tendency to too often try to make 'stick' throws into tight windows. Normally, that trait is a positive in the NFL. When you are forced to do it too often because of the score of the game, it can become a negative."

. . . allow me to do a little happy dance.

So, you take the blue pill, the story ends.  You keep scrolling, you go to forums, and you believe whatever you want to believe.  You read Ross Tucker’s article on SI.com, you stay in Wonderland, and he’ll show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.  Actually not really, because there’s no film clips in that article, but I had to complete the quote . . . I am a film buff, after all.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,ross tucker,si.com,nfl films,matthew stafford,mark sanchez

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forget the past; we’ll be blessed to repeat it

A couple nights ago, I was down in the basement, hunting for an old CD.  While I was rooting around in a box of such stuff, I found a small treasure: my 1995 Sports Illustrated Detroit Lions Video Yearbook.  The old-school VHS tape—still in its shrinkwrap—chronicles the last great campaign of the Detroit Lions.  No, you read right; I’ve never watched it.  When I was younger, it was merely the recent past.  I figured, “Eh, what’s the point?  I’ve just seen it live!”  To top it off, the hideous, embarrassing, wasn’t-as-close-as the-scoreboard-suggested 58-37 dismantling of the Lions by the Eagles was such a disastrous finale; it poisoned my feelings of the entire season.  Tragic, because it was the kind of fairy tale we annually wish for--but these days, are never granted.

It started off as a typical Lions season: three straight losses to the Steelers, Vikings, and Cardinals, all by a total of just 16 points.  Then, a thrilling 27-24 win over the defending Super Bowl 49ers was followed by a bye week of basking in the glory.  A rout of the Browns got the Lions almost back to .500.  But then came a 31-20 loss in Lambeau, followed by an OT heartbreaker on the road--against Martin Mayhew and the Redskins.  The Lions did get the Packers back at home, 24-16, but then dropped the next one in Atlanta, 34-22.

The Lions sat at 3-6, all but eliminated from the playoffs.  The calls for head coach Wayne Fontes’s head roared from all corners of Lions Nation: “Now, finally, please, Mr. Ford!  Isn’t this enough?  3-6, doubtlessly heading for another 5-11 or 6-10 season?  Surely, even you can admit that it’s finally time to bag the Big Buck.”

No, of course not.  Nothing doing.  Amazingly, Fontes and the Lions weren’t having any of it either.  After coming out and beating the Buccaneers, the Lions tore through the Bears, Vikings, and Bears again to make four straight division wins.  After beating the Oilers, they routed the hapless Jaguars (in their inaugural season) 44-0.  Needing a win to, incredibly, secure a Wild Card berth, they waltzed into Tampa Bay and waltzed back out with a 37-10 victory.

It bears going over just how incredible this season was from a statistical perspective.  Scott Mitchell had, by far, his best season as a pro.  He threw for 4,338 yards, threw 32 TDs to only 12 INTs, rushed for another 4 scores (!), and achieved a passer efficiency rating of 92.3%.  Herman Moore set the all-time single-season receptions record with 123 (the record stood until 2002).  Brett Perriman, the Lions’ stalwart #2 wideout, hauled in 108 catches, too—the first time in NFL history that two receivers from the same team both caught over 100 balls in the same season.  Barry Sanders toted it 318 times for 1,500 yards and 11 touchdowns; it was his 7th consecutive 1,000-yard season.  He also had 48 catches for 398 yards and another score.  Sanders, Moore, LT Lomas Brown, and C Kevin Glover all made the Pro Bowl.  Interestingly, Scott Mitchell set a Thanksgiving Day record with 410 passing yards.

After the Lions had completed the feat—run the table from Week 11 in—the national media really turned their heads.  I remember relishing the Sports Reporters on ESPN the following Sunday; Mitch Albom barely containing his glee when Mike Lupica interjected, “I’m sorry, but does anyone want to play the Detroit Lions right now?  No!”  Of course, there was a little talk about how the Lions didn’t beat any other playoff teams during that seven-game streak--but in the NFL, closing out a season like that is practically unheard of.  Lomas Brown went so far as to assure the media in Detroit that they would go on to handle the Eagles in the first round.  It didn’t quite happen that way.

After the Eagles intercepted Mitchell on the opening drive, they ran it in to draw first blood.  Mitchell recovered with a beautiful 32-yard bomb to tight end David Sloan.  Somewhere in Holt, MI, a 14-year-old geek jumped, hollered, and fist-pumped his way around his living room.  It was a very short dance.  Former Lions quarterback Rodney Peete lead the Eagles to 44 consecutive points to make it 51-7.  The attic door slammed shut on Cinderella, and Drizella rolled out in the Prince’s carriage.

Mitchell was pulled after his fourth filthy INT.  Backup QB Don Majikowski did some good things in relief—like hit Herman Moore for a 68-yard TD strike—and made the final score look almost respectable: 58-37.  It remains the highest total points scored in any NFL playoff game; it made for the Lions’ third straight first-round playoff loss.  We Lions fans thought it was the bitterest agony: to be so close to glory, but fall flat time after time after time.  However, in the next thirteen seasons, we would taste that exquisite agony but once.

Tomorrow is the annual extravaganza down at Ford Field; thousands of fans—including Clan TLIW—will commence with the pilgrimage to Ford Field for autographs, face painting, hot dogs, pop, beer—and, oh yes, Detroit Lions football.  That’s right, the new Lions in the new uniforms in Ford Field with full contact, full drills, and a full 11-on-11 scrimmage.  Do you understand?!  NEW!  FULL!  LIONS!  I can scarcely believe it!

My eldest child, who turns 5 next month, is old enough that she’ll definitely remember this.  She’ll meet some Lions, and get some stuff signed, see some football, hear the crowd--and maybe she’ll fall in love with this team the way I did.  My son’s appetite for sports is already insatiable—but he roots for the teams I root for, because I tell him about them and we watch them on TV.  For all the HDTV and Internet and CrackBerry and Twitter and all that junk—and hey, I’m a blogger, I’m all about “all that junk”—I remain convinced that the soul of sports is young fans, in the stands, in awe of the wonder and the spectacle.  The imposing size and complexity of the stadium structure, the seemingly infinite swath of green field and white stripes.  There’s nothing like it; thousands and thousands of fans, all wearing the team colors, all cheering the cheers.  Watching teams play live; that’s where kids become fans, and fans become kids.

Will I show my kids that tape?  Should I show them the Lions I grew up rooting for?  The last time the Lions could hang their hat on their wins and losses?  Do I want to show them what it was like the last time the Lions tore through the NFL?  The last time the Lions could strike fear into the hearts of opponents?  The last time Lions fans could truly roar with pride?  Eh, what’s the point?  They’re just about to see it live.

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