Three Cups Deep: Lions vs. Patriots

I went down to Detroit to see the Lions play the Patriots, everyone’s pick to win the Super Bowl, Saturday night. The offensive line was a sieve, and the quarterback got physically abused. The QB looked rattled from the opening gun, and in short order he was hearing footsteps and turfing screen passes. The defense was victimized, surrendering yards in chunks and points in bunches. Once the game was in hand, the other team put in their backups—but even that didn’t slow the bleeding. One big play made the final score look closer than it really was, but in the end there was no question who the better team was.

The Lions.

What the Lions did to a franchise that’s spent a decade as the class of the NFL—and, lest you forget, returned every significant piece of a team that went 14-2 last season—was astonishing. It wasn’t quite the thrashing that the Bengals game was, but the Lions simply outclassed the Patriots in every phase of the game, coaching not the least of it.

After all the caterwauling about the Lions’ run game, they simply didn’t run. The Lions took the field in a hurry-up shotgun spread, and confused and abused the Patriots’ back seven. There were a few token draws to Aaron Brown, but Matthew Stafford’s perfect quarterback play was simply unstoppable.

Matthew Stafford is playing as well as a quarterback can play. He has a Yoda-like understanding off the offense, and a an arm that can make any throw. His confidence is incredible; it’s neither false bravado nor stoic “lead-by-example,” it’s lining up in four-wide on 3rd and 2 and lasering it 40 yards down the field to where only a toe-dragging Nate Burleson can catch it.

As I said on the Fireside Chat, it’s not just that Stafford made that throw. He had to decide to make that throw. Moreover, that route had to be an option for Nate Burleson to run, and that play (out of that formation) had to be called. The Lions coaches had to have supreme confidence in Stafford to send even that play into the huddle.

That Linehan and Schwartz and Stafford all looked at 3rd-and-2 from their own end of the field as a great place to take a shot deep speaks volumes about their confidence in their ability to execute—and that they were right?  Incredible. The Lions are dictating the game to the opponent. They’re telling the other team what they’re going to do and then doing it. The last time we saw anything like this was Scott Mitchell’s glory year, 1995.

On the defensive side, it’s the same story. The front four—minus Kyle Vanden Bosch—wreaked havoc. Corey Williams and Cliff Avril played flat-out incredible games, and Suh and Lo-Jack and Sammie Hill and Willie Young all made noise too. Brady might be the coolest cucumber in the pocket we’ve seen in recent history, and he looked no less shaken than Andy Dalton.

Don’t get hung up on labels. Don’t get starstruck by names on the back of jerseys or logos on the sides of helmets. Don’t get caught up in reputations. Don’t sit down to work out who you think the Lions can beat and who you think they can’t. If there’s one thing we can all learn from Saturday night, it’s this: if these Lions are firing on all cylinders, there’s nobody they can’t beat.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new england patriots,preseason,bill belichick

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Jim Schwartz: Grandmaster, or Cable Guy?

Yesterday, the Lions released guard Greg Niland, and brought in former Spartan center Chris Morris. Morris, drafted by Oakland in 2006’s 7th round, had worked his way into the starting lineup by 2009, running with the ones for the first eight games. However, he lost his starting gig to Robert Gallery at the bye week, and made only two more spot starts after that. With Gallery having made him expendable, Morris was cut. He spent last season with the Panthers, but only dressed for four games.

Rotoworld on Morris:

Lions signed C Chris Morris, formerly of the Patriots.

Morris lasted just ten days in Patriots camp earlier this month. The journeyman 28-year-old made ten starts for a terrible Raiders offensive line in 2009.

Well gee, when you say it like that . . . Morris doesn’t sound like a sensible pickup. With Dylan Gandy and Rudy Niswanger already on the roster, why bring in another backup G/C? The operative word in that Rotoworld quote is “Patriots.” Morris had been camping with the Patriots, until a left leg injury forced them to release him.

As the Lions are—right now, today—gameplanning for their third preseason game, this suddenly makes sense. With a national television crew coming to witness the suddenly-buzzworthy Lions host the perennially title-contending Patriots, the stakes are high. Jim Schwartz signing a recent Pats cut to pick his brain is proof The Grandmaster is taking this matchup seriously. Very seriously. Maybe . . . too seriously?

Commenter @LineBusy made this analogy on Twitter, and it flat-out slayed me. Sure, this preseason game is a very real, very important measuring stick for the team and franchise. But there’s also doubt that Schwartz wants to prove himself to Belichick, his first NFL mentor. Don’t forget, Schwartz’s first job was an unpaid internship in the Browns' front office, under Belichick. Schwartz worked long hours, sleeping in a team-provided apartment and eating only Browns cafeteria food. Belichick even walked in on Schwartz sneaking the last of Belichick’s lunchmeat.

Last Thanksgiving, the Lions—thanks in large part to a brilliant coaching job by Schwartz & Co.—managed to hold the Patriots to a draw until the fourth quarter, when the dam finally burst. Obviously, Schwartz and the  Lions can’t “really” avenge that regular-season embarrassment with a preseason win. But taking the field and going toe-to-toe, starter-to-starter, with the league’s best? Even gaining the upper hand in the first half would be a huge momentum builder for this team.

The Lions need to convert the hype into reality; they need to back up all the talk. They need to wake up the people who are sleeping on them. They need to convert the faith of believers like me into truth. They need to prove it to themselves, and everyone else, that they’re ready to punch their ticket to the postseason. That’s why this preseason game—which doesn’t even really count—is vitally, crucially important. The Lions must seek out every conceivable advantage, no matter how small the edge or how great the cost.

Thanks for the boost, Chris.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,new england patriots,jim schwartz,bill belichick

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Lions Preseason Schedule: Bring On The PatRIOTS

Yesterday, the Lions announced their preseason schedule:

• vs. Cincinnati Bengals
• at Cleveland Browns (Great Lakes Classic!)
• vs. New England Patriots (Saturday, 8:00 pm, CBS
• at Buffalo Bills

The spotlight, as always, is on the third preseason game. As Dennis Green so colorfully told us, every coaching staff takes that game seriously:

The Lions have never been afraid to court a serious opponent for that game, and Bill Belichick is as serious it gets. Jim Schwartz Tweeted:

“Like NE as third preseason game. Nice having a 3-4 team as talented as the Patriots in that slot.”

The Lions scheduled 3-4 (and 3-4/4-3 hybrid) teams last season, too: Pittsburgh, Denver, Cleveland, and Buffalo. I wonder what the idea is here? The Packers, of course, run a 3-4, but Minnesota and Chicago run 4-3s, with varying degrees of Cover 2. I think it goes back to the principles I look at in The Watchtower: scheme-on-scheme interaction. With the personnel rotation in the preseason, it becomes base defense vs. base offense—and 3-4s naturally generate more outside pressure.

Then again, the third preseason game is the only one where real gameplanning occurs, so perhaps The Grandmaster is just excited about getting a preseason chess match. He can deploy rookies and try position switches and take risks, almost without consequence. Better yet, it’s a chess match against his old mentor—a rematch of last year, when 45 minutes of stalemate yielded to a blowout loss in the endgame. Coincidentally, or perhaps not, that was the last time the Lions played before a national audience.

What? Yes, that’s right, it’ll be on national TV, Saturday night, at 8:00. Much has been said (and written) about the Lions’ primetime TV drought; I won’t rehash it all here. But, given the Patriots’ involvement, the buzz building around the Lions, and the primo time slot, the Lions will be playing in the most-anticipated game of the most (only) important week of preseason football. There will be PREGAME analysis. There may even be hype! That’s right, national TV analysts attempting to convince us that the Lions will play competitive, interesting football against a perennial winner. I will shamelessly enjoy it.

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,jim schwartz,new england patriots,bill belichick,2011 nfl preseason,nfl

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The Watchtower: Lions vs. Patriots

The Lions’ Thanksgiving day game is the definition of routine: a tradition since 1934, it happens every single year, like clockwork.  However, it royally messes with the weekly NFL routine; I woke up on Monday and started panicking about the Watchtower.  Further, it’s yet another Very Special Watchtower: the one where the team has no offensive or defensive coordinator.

That's right, it's right there on the Patriots' coaches page: Bill Belichick is the head coach, runs the offense and the defense, and has a cadre of trusted position-coach assistants.  That’s it.  Examining his track record on both sides of the ball, without crediting him too much or too little, is going to be insanely tricky.  So, let’s get right to it.

Bill Belichick vs. Gunther Cunningham

BB	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Gun	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTSΔ	YpA	YpAΔ	YpC	YpCΔ
NEP	25th	17.2	5.63	3.29	KCC	19th	22.1	6.32	3.83	30	74.4%	5.88	4.4%	3.39	3.0%
NEP	10th	23.8	5.91	3.82	TEN	11th	20.2	6.30	3.83	7	-70.6%	4.42	-25.2%	4.31	12.8%
NEP	12th	21.8	6.39	3.40	TEN	13th	20.2	6.60	3.79	31	42.2%	7.06	10.5%	5.96	75.3%
NEP	4th	27.3	7.40	4.07	KCC	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	27	-1.1%	12.12	63.8%	3.06	-24.8%
NEP	6th	25.2	7.51	4.58	KCC	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	16	-36.5%	6.20	-17.4%	4.11	-10.3%
NEP	1st	28.9	6.85	4.09	DET	22d	23.7	7.13	4.79

As you all most certainly are aware, Belichick started out in New England with a noteworthy offensive coordinator: Charlie Weis, currently the OC in KC.  However, Belichick has a long track record of understanding offense, and calling his team’s offensive plays.  I don’t want to lend too much weight to the first four rows (the Weis) years—but it’s clear that Belichick has had his fingers in the offense the entire time, and further it’s clear that Weis did not take the Patriots’ offensive mojo with him to Notre Dame.

In 2002, New England’s offense and Tennesee’s defense were both pretty good (10th & 11th, respectively), yet the Titans held the Pats to just 7 points, 70.6% below their average.  in 2004, the Pats’ offense was a juggernaut—4th in the NFL—and the Chiefs’ defense was wretched.  Yet, the Patriots’ offensive output precisely matched their season average scored—and the Chiefs’ season average allowed: 27 points.  Sounding great so far . . .

. . . but in 2000, the Patriots offense was well below average (25th, 17.2 ppg), and put up thirty points on the 19th-ranked Chiefs.  In 2003, the Pats and Chiefs were again quite evenly matched in terms of execution (12th and 13th), but the Pats went nuts, scoring 42% above their season average.  So what can we conclude?  Nothing.  This might be the most schizophrenic data I’ve ever seen. 

The only non-Weis data point we have came in 2005, when Belichick’s 6th-ranked Patriots (and their 25.2 PpG average) faced off against Gunther’s 16th-ranked Chiefs, averaging 20.3 points allowed.  Impressively, the Chiefs bottled up the Pats, holding them to just 16 offensive points—a delta of 36%!

Looking at the table above, the only commonality I see between the two best results for the Cunningham defense is how the pass was limited.  In both 2002 and 2005, the Pats were held to well below their season averages in per-play effectiveness through the air—and consequently their scoring output was WELL below normal.  So, if the Lions can manage to hold the Patriots to 85% or less of their 2010 YpA . . .

. . . unfortunately, the Patriots have the #1 offense in the NFL.  They’re scoring 28.9 points per game, and have been surprisingly balanced while doing so.  Averaging 6.85 YpA, and 4.09 YpC, they’ll present an extremely tough out for the Lions defense.  That defense, by the way, is ranked 23rd, allowing 22.4 points per game.  As a point of reference, the Lions were dead last in 2009, 2008, and 2007—and 30th in 2006.  The last time the Lions defense was this good was in 2005, when they were ranked 21st and allowed 21.6 ppg.

Still, I don't see an out-of-nowhere performance that holds the Pats to 13 points happening, here.  Bill Belichick respects Schwartz, a former assistant, too much to show up for this game unprepared—and when was the last time BB let that happen anyway?  With no systemic advantage or disadvantage, save a possible what-if-they-don’t-pass-for-beans-corollary that I don’t see coming to fruition, I project the Patriots to meet expectations against the Lions, scoring 30-35 points, netting 7.0-7.50YpA, and garnering 4.25-4.50 YpC.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

Well, the sold-out crowd should help the Lions, if it’s not over in the fourth quarter.  Belichick knows Schwartz well, but Schwartz also knows Belichick well.  My guess is we’ll see some creative wrinkles from Gun, and likely some go-for-broke blitzes as well.  However, I don’t see that adding up to a mysteriously stout passing defense shutting down Tom Brady.  I’m pretty sure the 30-35 projection will be accurate.

Scott Linehan vs. Bill Belichick

Lin	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Wade	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	PTS?	YpA	YpA?	YpC	YpC?
MIN	8th	24.4	6.60	5.3	NEP	17th	21.6	5.91	3.82	17	-30.3%	5.55	-15.9%	6.12	15.5%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	NEP	17th	21.1	7.30	3.44	16	-19.6%	7.66	29.0%	3.08	-16.5%
MIA	16th	19.9	5.94	3.69	NEP	17th	21.1	7.30	3.44	26	30.7%	6.83	15.0%	3.70	0.3%
STL	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	NEP	8th	19.3	6.68	4.40	16	10.3%	8.85	56.1%	3.46	-12.4%
DET	15th	23.4	5.84	3.45	NEP	23rd	24.2	6.85	4.24

Ah, here we go: a good old-fashion OC vs. DC comparison, even if the DC in question wasn’t the DC for the first matchup.  In fact, in the interests of time, let’s skip the fourth matchup too: it came with the Rams, after Linehan was fired, and that data has been notoriously unreliable as I’ve worked through these Watchtowers.

Fortunately, that leaves us with the best data possible: two points in the same season with the same teams.  Better yet, in the year that it occurred—2005—these two units were remarkably similar to this 2010 matchup.  The Dolphins were ranked 16th on offense, averaging 5.94 YpA and 3.69 YpC.  The Lions are ranked 15th on offense, averaging 5.84 YpA and 3.45 YpC (these numbers were spooky-close before the Cowboys game dragged them down: 5.95 and 3.63!).  In ‘05, the Pats were ranked 17th on defense, allowing 21.1 PpG, 7.30 YpA, and 3.44 YpC.  This season, the Pats are much more balanced in run/pass effectiveness (6.85/4.24), but notably worse in scoring prevention: ranked 23rd, they’re allowing 24.2 points per game. 

So, given this perfect little test kitchen for what happens when a Scott Linehan offense meets a Bill Belichick 3-4 hybrid defense . . . what happened?  In the first contest, the Fins managed only 16 points, 19.6% below their season averages.  Oddly, they passed for well above their season average: 7.66 YpA, 29.0% above their norm.  However, they ran for only 3.08 YpC, down 16.5% (and terrible in an absolute sense).  In the second contest, the Fins scored 26, 30.7 above their average.  They passed for 6.83 YpA, splitting the difference between their norms and the first game—but ran for 3.70 YpC, exactly meeting their season average.  In fact, the only difference I can find is weather:

Stadium: Dolphin Stadium, Start Time: 1:00, Surface: grass, Weather: 77 degrees, relative humidity 63%, wind 15 mph [Dolphins scored 16 points]

Stadium: Gillette Stadium, Start Time: 1:00, Surface: grass, Weather: 28 degrees, relative humidity 83%, wind 11 mph, wind chill 18 [Dolphins scored 26 points]

That's right, the Dolphins did much better on the road, in nasty weather . . . of course, this game will be at home, in a dome.

The bottom line here is that I’m finding wildly variant results.  With no systemic advantage, or disadvantage, I expect Scott Linehan’s balanced offense to meet expectations against Bill Belichick’s 3-4 hybrid defense: 23-27 points, 5.5-6.5 YpA, and 3.5-3.75 YpA.  I have medium confidence in this projection.

Mitigating/Aggravating Factors:

We saw a big jump from Shaun Hill in his third game as a Lions starter, nearly outdueling Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.  He was clearly much better against the Cowboys than Bills—and if he takes another step forward towards the form he showed in Green Bay, and against the Rams, the Lions could definitely keep pace in a shootout.  However, the Lions just can’t run the ball right now, and I have to think the 8-2 Pats are ready to pin their ears back and win a turkey leg, or that iron, or that horrible robot turkey, or whatever it is they give out these days.

One little thing to keep an eye on: trickeration.  Schwartz knows Belichick, and Belichick knows Schwartz.  This game is the Lions’ signature game, and last season they started Matthew Stafford, the franchise quarterback, despite a separated shoulder and no practice.  Hmm.  I’m not suggesting that Stafford starts this game, necessarily, but that we see The Grandmaster dig into that “HB Option Pass” section of the playbook—perhaps even the offensive package for Ndamukong Suh?  A side projection: we will see at least one offensive play or package from the Lions that we haven’t ever seen before.  Keep that in your back pocket.

Conclusion:

I’ve been burned three weeks in a row—three straight times I’ve projected Lions victory and had my heart ripped out (along with all of you).  This time, the data leads me down no primrose path: the most likely result of this game is a 32-24 Lions loss.  I hope it’s close in the fourth quarter, I hope there are some signature moments, and I hope the nation comes away feeling like the Lions are interesting again.  I also hope the Lions win, but I have no objective reason to think they will.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,thanksgiving,new england patriots,bill belichick,jim schwartz,gunther cunningham,scott linehan

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