Three Cups Deep: Sailing the Gravy Boat

It is December 2nd, and the Detroit Lions are in sole possession of first place in the NFC North.

They have a one-and-a-half-game lead over the Green Bay Packers, and a one-game lead (with head-to-head tiebreaker) over the Bears. The Lions face only one team with a winning record over their last four games, and basically have no good reason not to finish at least 10-6 (and 5-1 in division).

The Lions have just four short weeks and an ocean of gravy separating them from their first division title since 1993.

If you're reading, you know all this.

You also know the Lions destroyed the Packers, 40-10, for their first Thanksgiving win in a decade. You also know Matthew Stafford is rewriting the Lions record book, and Peter King just called Reggie Bush and Joique Bell "absolutely unequivocably" the best one-two tailback combo in the NFL.

I know that these Lions are still not good enough—not yet, anyway.

King also said this:

Detroit’s reward for earning the third seed in the NFC playoffs—if that’s where the Lions end up, and it’s no lock—would be one of the most rugged roads to the Super Bowl ever. Consider this possible slate: a Wild Card home game against San Francisco, a divisional game at New Orleans, a championship game at Seattle. Who survives that?

Not a team who's turned it over 25 times in 12 games, that's for sure. The Lions are ranked fifth in the NFL in scoring differential, racking up 27.2 points per game. Opposing teams are scoring an average of 23.9 points per game, ranked 18th. That gives them the ninth-best scoring differential in the NFL (3.2 points per game).

Now, imagine how many more points they'd be scoring, and how many fewer points they'd be allowing, if they weren't ending 16.9 percent of their offensive drives with a turnover.

Despite that mindblowing, field-flipping, win-preventing error rate, the Lions have still ended 35.8 percent of their drives with a score, 11th-best in the NFL. Only the New York Giants and New York Jets are coughing it up more frequently, yet the Lions statistically have a top-five offense and middle-of-the-pack defense.

As I've said several times here and at Bleacher Report, this team is not going to reach its limitless potential until Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush cut down on the mistakes.

For some reason, this has made my fellow Flamekeepers really, really mad at me.

"You can't put it on Matt," they say, before proferring excuses for why his habitually high, behind, late and too-hard passes keep getting getting intercepted off of deflections. "It's the coaches' fault for not preparing him correctly," they say. I do believe coaching factors into it, but I think it's more to do with their hesitance to throttle Stafford down than an Xs-and-Os problem.

Then we get deeper into the blame game: receivers, protection, playcalling, the defense. Look: Matthew Stafford has the best wide receiver in the world, a solid running game, the fifth-best pass protection in the NFL (per Pro Football Focus) and a defense that—more often than not—is keeping him in the game while he and the offense spend the first quarter in neutral.

Yet, he's ranked 27th in the NFL in completion rate, at a miserable 59.2 percent. He's throwing picks on 2.8 percent of his dropbacks, his worst rate since his rookie year. His 5.4 percent touchdown rate can't touch his 2011 or 2010 numbers, 6.2 and 6.3 percent respectively.

What, then, is the more rational statement:

A) Matthew Stafford needs to more consistently play up to the talent level that made him a No. 1 overall pick, earned him a big-money extension, and showed through in 2011 when he threw 41 touchdowns against 16 interceptions.

or

B) Brandon Pettigrew needs to play like Rob Gronkowski, Kris Durham needs to play like Calvin Johnson, and the Lions defense needs to play like the 2000 Ravens'.

If we could wave a magic wand and make either A or B come true, they'd have equal effect on the Lions' bottom line. Yet, if you're staring at these numbers and concluding B is the more reasonable non-Fairy-Godmother request, I don't know what to tell you.

"Well then, what do we do?" Lions fans ask me. "Fire the coach?"

Let's re-read that first sentence:

It is December 2nd, and the Detroit Lions are in sole possession of first place in the NFC North.

 No, we do not fire the coach. In fact, we—the fans—don't do anything at all. Nor, honestly, do I think the Lions need to consider making any major moves. If any shakeup needs to occur, it's in the QB coach/Offensive Coordinator department (As a fifth-year veteran, I'm no longer worried that any change there will stunt Stafford's development, especially since it seems to be stunting anyway).

No, what needs to happen is Matthew Stafford taking preparation, execution, and all the little things that make the difference between a good quarterback and great quarterback seriously. This team is built to win because of him, not in spite of him; until he fixes the fixable mistakes they won't do enough of the latter—especially not come the bitter cold of January.

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On Thanksgiving, Lions Fans Give Thanks

“…although it be not always so plentiful as it was at this time with us, yet by the goodness of God, we are so far from want that we often wish you partakers of our plenty.”

-- Edward Winslow, A Relation or Journal of the Beginning and Proceedings of the English Plantation Settled at Plimoth in New England

Ten games in to the 2012 season, the Lions have won four games and lost six. Jeff Backus’s 186-game starting streak is about to end. Nate Burleson will be in crutches, cheering from the sideline. Titus Young will be in street clothes, inactivated for insubordination. Jahvid Best may never play again.

Corey Williams is iffy, Aaron Berry is in New York, Bill Bentley is on IR, and Drayton Florence will likely be out with a concussion. Two of the Lions’ top three safeties are on IR, and the third (Delmas) likely won't play either. Everything we thought this season would be is lost, or nearly so.

Now, let us fill Ford Field to the rafters and roar thanks for all our blessings.

Last season was the first season I made the more-literal-than-usual Pilgrimage to Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day. I was not surprised to find the atmosphere as it always seemed at home, on TV: an extra-special mood of festivity, a wide-open expression of joy and pride, a welcoming, party atmosphere.

There's something magical about the Lions on Thanksgiving, doubly so when you're there in person. Through thick and thin, and there's been an awful lot of very thin, this game sells out. It’s an annual national celebration of blessings, and no matter how bleak things have been on- and off-field for the Lions, their fans turn out in force to spend all day reveling in the immutable fact that we are still here.

The Pilgrims themselves gathered ‘round with some corn and some eel and some venison and a few pints of homebrew and toasted their incredible luck at just being able to do so. It’s the same with the Lions and their fans: spit on the team, on the City of Detroit, the State of Michigan, on our way of life all you want. Dismiss us, deny us, wish us all to lose our jobs, whatever.

We are still here.

We're here: 64,000 of us, 750,000 of us, four million of us, ten million of us, and we’re all wearing blue and fake turkeys on our heads and we’re going to raise a glass to one another and scream our fool heads off and you can’t deny it. You can’t take it away. We have our team, we have each other, and we are united in celebration of those simple facts; we are still here.

Whether you are there with me and mine tomorrow morning, or at home in the City of Detroit, or at home somewhere else, or visiting Grandma’s House, or even if you’re on the other side of the world: tomorrow we are all together, united in support of our team and each other.

There have been much, much worse seasons than this one. There have been much, much less exciting versions of our team. There have been much, much worse Thanksgiving Day games than this one will be, even if the Texans beat the Lions by more than the three-point spread. It’s not about the winning or the losing, though a win would be wonderful and a loss the final doom of the Lions’ playoff hopes.

Tomorrow, we give thanks for the blessings we have, and the blessings we have are so many: We have a team, we have a stadium, we have food and drink, we have each other, and we have hope. Always, always we have hope.

By the goodness of God, we are so far from want, we wish you partakers of our plenty.

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Turkey Day Q&A with TexansChick Steph Stradley

Today, TLiW is thankful for Stephanie Stradley (@StephStradley on Twitter), a Houston lawyer who writes about the Houston Texans for the Houston Chronicle online and a general interest, non-Texans blog at her own site. Stephanie is a sports blog O.G., and one of the very best.

I answered her Qs with my As at her TexansChick Houston Chronicle blog, and after adding her own must-read analysis, she’s provided her own As for us, here:

What are differences between this Texans team and previous ones? And why are Andre Johnson's numbers (with the exception of last week) down this year?

“The Texans offense with few exceptions hasn't had to open up much because with better defense, the team has played with many early leads. Due to salary cap concerns, they had to replace the starting right guard and right tackle, which would also make a team lean toward a more conservative, less-risk filled approach. The strength of the 2012 Texans is their experienced tight ends relative to their young 3-5 WRs, so they can use their TEs to help the offensive line but also to make pass plays and create mismatches.

The Texans have three tight ends that are listed in the top 15 in TE efficiency: Owen Daniels, Garrett Graham and James Casey. Casey is not built like a traditional tight end and came into the league as a do-everything athlete after his remarkable time at Rice University. (Nickname: "Thor"). The Texans use him as a hybrid TE, FB, WR and line him up in various ways. They run/pass out of the same looking formations and create matchup problems for defenses, especially given that no teams look like what the Texans are doing this year.

Andre Johnson is still Andre Johnson. He's made key move-the-sticks plays, and big plays downfield. But this year he has functioned mostly as a "Break Glass In Case of Emergency" option. If the Texans have a big lead, there's no reason to take downfield shots at him. In the game against the Jaguars, he faced some unusual single coverage matchups. In addition, with the Texans down by 14 late, they started running more 3-4 wide receiver sets with a more open offense like they used to do a lot when their defense was terrible. Eventually, if the Texans decide they are going to throw on teams, Andre Johnson is going to get his.

He's a very unselfish player and would rather have wins over stats.

In general, the Texans offense is all about taking advantage of what the defense gives you. Some defenses load up against RB Arian Foster. Some defenses aim at taking Andre Johnson out of the game. So each week the targets are different...the yard can be all about Arian Foster or the TEs or the #2 WR or the Andre Johnson show. They have many ways they can be efficient in moving the ball, and I think Texans coach Gary Kubiak is underrated as a playcaller. (The old "It's the players when things are going well, and the playcalling when things aren't." If you talk to the Texans players, they have a great deal of respect for what Kubiak does).

It's also worth mentioning with Andre Johnson that both he and Matt Schaub were coming off of injury filled seasons where neither one of them had a full camp. Johnson says he is feeling more like himself as the season progresses.”

What are key injuries for this team or players coming off of injury?

“The number one concern is whether standout CB Johnathan Joseph is going to be available for this game given his hamstring issue coming out of the previous game. He's usually the corner who is matched up with the best WR when there's a clear dominant #1. The Texans haven't played a lot of snaps with him off of the field.

Probably the greatest loss for the Texans this year was losing ILB Brian Cushing for the year to an ACL injury suffered against the Jets. He is a physical player against the run and the pass and gave Wade Phillips flexibility for what he could call on defense. Against better offensive teams, his aggressive play in the middle of the field will be missed. Tim Dobbins has played well in replacement, but suffered a shoulder injury after an interception return that makes his return uncertain.

Darryl Sharpton was expected to play alongside Cushing in 2012, but had a hard time coming back from a quad injury suffered last year. He had his first game against the Jaguars after coming off of IR and played well despite the rust. He played well before his injury, and Texans fans will be watching if he is the same player now. He will likely get the start on Thursday.”

What do you think are the strengths of this Texans team?

“Balance. If you look at the best teams in 2012, they are very balanced between offense and defense. In recent years, there's been a trend for teams to be dominant on one side of the ball and use that dominance to overpower opponents. (Typical examples: Patriots, Colts). This year, there's a number of good teams that are balanced: Texans, 49ers, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers. Teams that can win through both their offensive and defensive play.

Even within their offense and defense, they are balanced. They're run/pass playcalling is almost 50/50, and they can be very effective doing either one or both. The Texans defense is balanced as well, being good against both the run and the pass.

The Texans defense third down percentage numbers allowed is absurdly low. Currently the Texans defense leads the league in fewest a 3rd down percentage made at 26%. To put in context, the Bears and 49ers are 2nd and 3rd in that number respectively at 32%, 33%.

The Texans are also 1st in the NFL at Time of Possession (excluding OT) at 34:38. The defense has been doing a great job at forcing punts, and the Texans are usually good for a number of clock chewing offensive drives each game and at the end of games with a lead.”

What concerns Texans fans?

“Special Teams. This is the biggest concern by far. This unit has a number of new faces and new a kicker and punter who weren't the plan A's going into the season. Coverage units rarely worked all together in the preseason, and they did not appear to be a cohesive group going into the season. The unit has had some untimely penalties, and sometimes have created problems with the field position battle. They've looked better in recent weeks, and the hope is that with more time together, they won't lose the Texans games.

The right side of the offensive line. The Texans have been doing an unusual rotation on the right side of their line. Usually it has been fine, but in a couple of games it has led to some cringeworthy shots against Matt Schaub and difficult yards for Arian Foster.

Pass rush other than JJ Watt. Second year defensive linemen JJ Watt has been having an absurdly productive year. They move him up and down the line to give him good matchups, and he often takes advantage. The question for some is whether the other linemen/OLB can take advantage of situations where JJ Watt is being double teamed. Given the wild productivity of the Texans defense in 2012, that might be a quibbling concern.”

What do you think is the best way to beat the Texans?

“Stop the run and don't overpursue such that the best playaction/zone running team in the league kills you. Disguise coverages and bring infrequent, delayed blitzes to keep Matt Schaub from finding a rhythm. Bring quality pass rush with only four rushers and make sure Schaub makes few clean throws.”

What do you think the Texans gameplan will be against the Lions?

“The Texans focus mostly on what they like to do. On defense, stop the run, don't get beat by the deep play, take plenty of hard shots on the quarterback. Give extra attention to what the opponent does best, in this case, make it difficult to throw to Calvin Johnson.

On offense, see what the defense is giving you with the scripted plays at the beginning of the game, and then take advantage of defensive tendencies and matchups. Throw early in the game to amass a big lead and then run a lot late to chew clock.”

Who are some Texans players that Lions fans may not know who may have an impact on the game either in a negative or positive way?

“I've already mentioned the tight ends. Specific to the line, Ben Jones is a rookie who is rotationally playing right guard. He was a quality center in college, didn't play guard but started working on it during camp. He rotates with Antoine Caldwell, and both of them have had some up and down moments. Right tackle Ryan Harris rotates with Derek Newton, and Harris sometimes reports as an eligible receiver in red zone situations.

Those from Michigan may be familiar with rookie WR Keshawn Martin who went to Michigan State. He had his first touchdown last week, and had his best game as a returner last week. The Texans are slowly giving their inexperienced WRs more work, and if this game becomes a shootout, it is easy to hear other receiving target names being called other than just Andre Johnson because of how much Schaub distributes the ball.”

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Scott Mitchell, Matthew Stafford, and the Ghosts of Thanksgiving Classics Past

“They’ll never win anything with that quarterback.” My grandfather’s steel jaw was set like a trap. His eyes were narrowed into burning slits. Bellies full of turkey and trimmings, he and I were ‘relaxing’ after dinner by—what else?—watching the Lions.

It being 1995, Football Outsiders and Pro Football Focus didn’t exist. Dividing yards  by carries to explain why Barry Sanders is better than Emmitt Smith got you branded a pencil-necked geek playing with fake voodoo numbers. Still, my 14-year-old self refused to let that statement go unchallenged.

Unfortunately, being challenged wasn’t exactly my Grandpa’s thing.

"Well . . ." I ventured, swallowing hard. "Actually, Grandpa, Scott Mitchell’s been having an awesome year. I mean, his completion percentage is up around sixty, he’s got a two-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio, he’s on pace to throw for well over four thousand yards . . .”

“He’s a bum,” said my Grandpa. His eyes never wavered from the wood-cabinet-enclosed TV.

An airtight argument, to be sure. But . . . I mean, couldn’t he see? The Lions were outgaining everyone in football! Barry Sanders! Herman Moore! I mustered my logics, and cleared my throat.

“A BUM.” The matter was closed.

Of course, the Lions went on to win that game, 44-38. Mitchell completed 30 of 45 passes for 410 yards, four touchdowns, and just one pick. Barry reeled off 138 yards on 24 carries, including a 50-yard touchdown run. I was quite satisfied with myself; logic and reason and faithful fandom had won the day. These Lions and their incredible air attack were certainly on their way to greatness.

My grandfather wasn’t happy the Lions won that day, at least not visibly so. He seemed appeased. Like, at least this time, the Lions’ absence of bumbling was acceptable to him. Meanwhile, I was punch-drunk on Lions Kool-Aid.

The Lions reeled off four more consecutive victories (seven total) to make the playoffs. Mitchell and the Lions were the second-highest-scoring offense in the NFL that year. Mitchell’s 58.3% completion percentage, 4,338 yards, 32 touchdowns and 12 interceptions made for the best statistical season any Lions quarterback has had in my lifetime. I thought it was the beginning of a 49ers-esque run of offensive dominance.

Unfortunately, Scott Mitchell was a bum; those Lions never won anything.

As we speak, Matthew Stafford is on pace to complete 61.3% of his passes for 4,548 yards, 40 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. The Lions are the 3rd-highest-scoring team in football. These Lions are 7-3, not 5-6, going into the hallowed Thanksgiving Day game—but unlike 1995, the 2011 Lions started hot. It’s technically possible for these Lions to win their last seven games like the ‘95 team did—but after the midseason stumbles, and with the remaining schedule, that seems like a ridiculous pipe dream.

Just how good are these Lions? We’re still not sure. Are they the team that started 5-0? The team that went 1-3 from mid-October to mid-November? Are they headed for a mediocre 9-7 finish, or an outstanding 12-4? Matthew Stafford is not a bum—but 16 years from now, will he be remembered as the second coming of John Elway, or the second coming of Carson Palmer?

This Thanksgiving Day game will be the truest test of the Lions mettle. The Packers are undefeated; the undisputed reigning champions of the NFL. They’re comfortably atop the NFC North division standings. Until the ultimate crucible of Lambeau Field in Week 17, the Lions will not have a better chance to prove they belong amongst the best of the NFL.

I'm thankful that chance comes during the Lions’ annual showcase game. I’m thankful they can slam the door, once and for all, on decades of futility while a nation full of doubters looks on. I’m thankful they’ll be able to put a barbed-wire fence around Ford Field, and the generations of tradition the Thanksgiving game is imbued with.

Above all, I’m thankful that for the first time in my life, I’ll be there.

That’s right, I’ll be making the Pilgrimage to the Thanksgiving Classic. It’s on the bucket list of every true Lions fan, and I cannot be happier that I’ll be able to scratch it off my own. I’ll be there to cheer the Lions on with everything I’ve got, and give the Lions every possible advantage over the Packers—who, if history holds, will have an audible contingent of supporters there, too.

Though moral victories don’t count, and a good show in a “noble loss” would be bitterly disappointing for all these wonderful opportunities left hanging,  it wouldn’t end the Lions season. If they take care of business against the Vikingses and the Chargerses of the world, the Lions can still make the playoffs without a ‘W’ on T-day.

But, if they can pass this test, if they can fell these giants, every Lions fan everywhere will be able to rejoice: finally, finally, the Lions have taken their place amongst the very best teams in football . . .

. . . and somewhere, my Grandpa will stand up and cheer.

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