old mother hubbard: the cornerbacks

Ever since Bryant Westbrook went down in the midst of a Pro Bowl-to-be season in 2000, the Lions have struggled to find quality cornerback play.  This situation looks like it's unlikely to change for 2009.

Leigh Bodden: When they traded Shaun Rogers for Cleveland CB Leigh Bodden and a third-round draft pick, it was hoped that the young (27) veteran could step in and cover opposing teams' top recievers.  While the Tampa 2 defense relies mostly on short zones--and asks its corners to step up and play run defense--Bodden is more of a traditional man-to-man cover corner.  Still, with his size (6'-1". 193), it was hoped that he'd be able to make a natural transition to the play of a Tampa 2 corner.

 . . . not so much.  Bodden seemed lost early on, neither playing well in coverage nor in run support.  Bodden quickly became a favorite target of the naysayers, especially as the huge hole in the middle of the defense became obvious.  However, in the middle of the season, the light started to go on.  Against Washington he had 8 tackles (7 solo), and in the first Minnesota game he had his sole interception (down from six in 2007).  That, by the way, was the ONLY interception registered by ANY Lions defensive back.  That is . . . that is horrible.

At the end of the season, it was obvious that Bodden disliked the defensive system he'd been shoehorned into--and the coaching staff who did the shoehorning:

“You've got to be unpredictable, and I feel like sometimes we were kind of too predictable in what we were calling -- and that costs you,” Bodden said. “If the offensive coordinator can pretty much tell what you're about to run, then he's going to beat whatever you have.”

Amen, Leigh.  Amen.  I still believe that Bodden is an extremely talented and confident young corner, and will almost certainly be a better starter in the new system than anyone else we can acquire, either through free agency or the draft.  However, Bodden will be due an $8.6 million roster bonus in March, and it seems unlikely that the Lions would want to exercise that bonus.  Most are treating his departure as a foregone conclusion, but don't be so sure--cornerback is probably the thinnest position on the roster.  Bottom line: a talented young cover corner in his prime, horribly misused in the T2, and probably out the door for contract reasons.  Should be excellent in 2009 whether he's here or somewhere else.

 Travis Fisher: Fisher is yet another constant target of Lions fans' ire, yet he's quite good at the things Tampa 2 corners must do: he's stout against the run and provides good short-zone coverage skills; in 2007 he had 78 tackles (60 solo) and two interceptions.  The problem is that he has neither the athleticism nor the deep speed to cover opposing teams' #2 wideouts.  In 2008, he had a very slow start, missed a few games with a knee injury, and then had a very slow finish as well.  I see Fisher as a good nickel back or situational short-zone corner, a guy who can tackle and jump slants.  However, the guy is regularly scorched on medium and deep routes.  I would say that we need to acquire a starter to replace him at #2 corner--yet if Boddenis cut, and he's re-signed, he'll be our #1 corner!

Vomit.

Bottom line: Fisher is cheap depth, forced into a starting role.  His "skills" are best suited to the Tampa 2 we won't be running anymore.  His contract is up, and he is due to be an unrestricted free agent.

Stanley Wilson:  A 2005 third-round draft pick, fourth-year speedster (and Stanford grad) Stanley Wilson exploded at the tail end 2006, earning a starting spot and the team's Chuck Hughes award for 'most improved player'.  It seemed like Wilson was well on his way, and began the 2007 season as the starting RCB.   While he had some great individual games (8 tackles against Chicago!), he was in and out of the lineup due to injury, eventually being put on IR after the Thanksgiving game.  in 2008, Wilson blew out his Achilles tendon in the first game of the preseason.  Wilson at this point is a totally unknown quantity . . . his youth, blazing speed (4.36 @ the combine), decent size (5'-11". 189), and his play at the end of 2006 points to a very bright future.  However, his inability to stay healthy, inconsistency, and the Tampa 2 scheme he played in make him an enigma.  Even if he rehabs to 100%, his contract is up--Wilson will be an unrestricted free agent.  Bottom line: Wilson is a bright and talented young man who can't stay healthy.  Moreover, his contract is up.  If he attracts little interest, the Lions may re-sign him to a "prove it"-type contract to see what he can do in the new scheme.

Ramzee Robinson:  Famous mostly for being the 2007 draft's Mr. Irrelevant, Robinson has been cut, assigned to the pratice squad, signed, cut, and assigned to the practice squad about 237 times in two years.  He got signed for good in the middle of 2008, and made a little noise on special teams and in the dime packages, getting 25 tackles.  As an Alabama starter with a little size to him (5'-10", 186#), Robinson should make the squad next year--due to attrition if nothing else.  Bottom line: a seventh-round draft pick with a smidge of upside, who ought to make the team next year.

Keith Smith: a third-round pick in the 2004 draft, Keith Smith has seen some time at nickel and dime, and has occasionally been pressed into starting duty when others have been injured.  Smith has never made much of an impact, and at age 28 he's probably peaked.  Smith played 10 games in 2008 before being placed on IR . . . he's a placeholder at best.  I believe he's an unrestricted free agent.  Bottom line: Smith never amounted to much, and if he somehow re-signs with the Lions will be strictly a cheap warm body.

SUMMARY:  The situation here is dire.  Bodden is a legit NFL #1 CB who could excel in the new system, but is due a monster bonus they might cut him to avoid paying.  Travis Fisher is a nickel back at best, and is a free agent.  Stanley Wilson has the talent to be an exellent man-to-man cover corner, but he can't stay healthy and is a free agent.  Robinson is depth with a little upside, and Smith is a scrub and a free agent.  If Bodden is let go, we will need three new corners, two of them starters.  I hope Bodden is kept, and we draft a corner with legit speed and excellent return skills--hell, maybe two of them.  A veteran starter would be nice, and Titans fourth-year CB/KR Chris Carr is reportedly interested in getting out from under the shadow of Cortland Finnegan & Co. in Tennessee.  Sounds good to me.  Bring friends Chris; bring friends.

Read more...

old mother hubbard: the linebackers

Initially, I was going to break this down into the "middle linebackers" and the "outside linebackers", but . . . who are we kidding?  There isn't a natural middle linebacker on the Lions' roster.  Hence, "the linebackers":

Ernie Sims: coming out of high school, Ernie Sims was the #1 overall recruit (as ranked by Rivals.com).  It's no surprise; even in high school he had an NFL body.  He passes the eyeball test with flying colors--he has truly alarming biceps.  He selected Florida State, and after a very productive career there, was drafted by the Lions with the 8th overall pick of the 2006 draft.    There were a lot of questions about his size (listed at 6'-0", 220; perhaps in platform shoes?), but as Sims said, "When I tackle a person, they don't ask me how tall I am".  Sims was rampantly compared to fellow FSU standout and Tampa 2 LB Derrick Brooks, though Brooks is taller, leaner, slightly faster, and a SSLB--much more like former Lions LB Boss Bailey.  In his first season, Sims was a force, leading the Lions in tackles (124, 81 solo) and often looking like the only guy out there.  The sky seemed like the limit, and I started saving up for an Ernie Sims jersey.  He took a small step forward in productivity in 2007 (134 tackles, 91 solo, 1 sack, 1 INT), but compared to expectations he underperformed.   He also looked like he was freelancing at times, overpursuing in the run game and getting caught out-of-position in the pass game--both cardinal sins in the Tampa 2, which relies on everyone staying home and removing options for the offense.  Sims REALLY started freelancing this season, trying to do everything himself, MUCH to the detriment of the defense.  Sims's productivity fell way off (113 tackles, 71 solo, 1 sack), and he often seemed to disappear out there.  My personal theory is that Sims lost all respect for the defensive coaching staff and the system they taught.  Whether he wasn't going full speed, or he was playing with total disregard for the system, Sims was definitely mentally checked out.  I think a switch to a system where he gets to blitz, to attack, to run downhill and hit people will be MUCH more to his liking.  Sims was named as one of the "three untouchable Lions" by NFL.com's Adam Schefter, and there's a good reason why.  Sims' athletic ability is incredible, and when he's engaged he plays with tremendous fire and passion.  In a traditional 4-3, where the WLB is asked to attack, attack, attack, I think Ernie Sims could be a tremendous force; a perennial Pro Bowl level defender.  In a 3-4, Sims could pair with Cliff Avril to make a vicious OLB combo reminiscent of the Steelers' Lamarr Woodley and James Harrison.  Bottom line:  Sims mailed it in last year, but I expect a Pro Bowl year from him this year, regardless of alignment.  Schwartz and Gunther will know how to use this enormous talent.

Jordon Dizon:  Who knows?  Incomplete.

Paris Lenon:   . . . I'm not going to get away with that one, am I?

Jordon Dizon:  He was the Lions second-round pick in the 2008 draft, one where every early pick was desperately needed to contribute in order to avoid a disaster . . . and he didn't . . . and they didn't.  The confusion, inconsistency of vision, and infighting amongst the Lions over Jordon Dizon was one of the key examples of why the Lions went 0-16.  Dizon was extremely productive at Colorado.  Despite being a little undersized for a Mike, even by college standards (6'-0", 229#), Dizon was a four-year starter who slid between the Mike and Will spots.  He finished at Colorado with 463 tackles, eighth-best in D-I history, and after his senior year was Big XII Defensive Player of the Year (please refrain from making the obvious Big XII/Defense/oxymoron jokes).  Here is what I believe is the timeline of what went down:

* Millen and Marinelli agree that the Lions need a middle linebacker, preferably the kind with "of the future" attached to his position designation.

* Millen and Marinelli agree that Jordon Dizon has the talent, instincts, and frame to someday be a great middle linebacker in the Tampa 2 system.

* Millen drafts Jordon Dizon in the second round.

* Millen presents Marinelli with Dizon and demands he install him as the MLB.

* Marinelli retorts that Dizon will not be mentally or physically ready to play MLB for at least a year, maybe two, and should start off on the strong side while Paris Lenon brings the mediocrity.

* Millen insists.

* Dizon holds out of the first week of training camp, missing the installation of the base defense and killing any chance he had of making an impact at MLB in 2008.

* Marinelli plants Dizon's butt on the third-string bench behind Buster Davis.

* Millen cuts Buster Davis.

* Millen is fired.

* Marinelli immediately switches Dizon to the strong side, where he is promptly injured and lost for the year.

Bottom line:  From what very, very, very little we have seen, Dizon is a short-term project at SLB, long-term project at MLB, and possibly too small for either--essentially the second coming of Teddy Lehman.

Paris Lenon:  Paris Lenon is the man Lions fans love to hate.  Listed at 6'-2", 235 lbs., Paris Lenon is--by far--the biggest linebacker on the Lions roster.  An undrafted free agent who paid his dues in NFL Europe and the XFL, Lenon has been very steady, really hardworking, and totally unspectacular.  He hasn't missed a game since 2002--and even though he's arguably a natural SLB, he's started every game at middle linebacker throughout his tenure with the Lions.  He doesn't posess great size, speed, or strength, but he's one of the few sound tacklers out there for the Lions, and he keeps his wits about him out there.  If the Lions are going to play an attacking 4-3, Lenon absolutely cannot be the starting MLB.  The Lions must acquire a real MLB with a frame that lets him athletically carry 245 pounds or more, let Lenon back him up, or fight Dizon, and Ryan Nece fight for snaps on the strong side.  In a 3-4, the Lions will have to both sign a veteran starter AND burn one of the first five draft picks on an MLB.   Bottom line: Lenon is an okay starter/terrific backup SSLB with a high motor, playing WAY out-of-position at MLB.

Ryan Nece:  Another of the Tampa Bay Misfit Toys, Ryan Nece was signed just before the season opened, and very soon found himself the starting SSLB.  Weighing in at 6'-3", 224 pounds, I completely wrote Nece off--just another skinny OLB off the trash pile, right?  However, Nece is a man full of surprises: his father is Hall of Fame safety Ronnie Lott.  Moreover, while Nece didn't have his pinky finger cut off to stay on the field last year, he played with an impressive amount of fire and tenacity.  He pulled down 68 tackles (45 solo) and 1.5 sacks in just 10 starts.  He's not a long-term solution--at age 29 he'll never be any better than he is right now--but he was more than worth the street FA contract he signed.  He's also a quality special-teamer, many of whom got run off by Marinelli's "I don't waste roster spots on special teamers" approach.  Bottom line: excellent heart, attitude, depth, special teams ability, no contract to speak of.  If he stays on the roster, I don't mind at all--but I'd hope Dizon or Lenon could beat him out for the starting SSLB gig.

Alex Lewis: 6'-0", 230 lbs.  Fast.  Athletic.  Can't tackle.  Good special teamer.

Anthony Cannon: 6'-0", 228 lbs.  Fast.  Athletic.  Can't tackle.  Good special teamer.

SUMMARY:  Sims should be an impact player at the weakside, and between Lennon and Dizon the strongside should be handled as well.  However, the Lions absolutely must address the middle linebacker position, preferably through both free agency and one of the first five picks of the draft.  Paris Lenon is small for an NFL linebacke, but is the biggest of the bunch.  In an aggressive 4-3, the MLB must be a traditional run-stopper like--speaking strictly hypothetically (wink, wink)--James Laurenitis of Ohio State.  In a 3-4, the Lions may have several quality veteran starters on the free agent market to pursue: young standout veteran Dolphin Channing Crowder (who I was rooting for us to draft originally) is one example.  In a bizarre but intriguing piece of news, a close friend of Pittsburgh stalwart ILB Larry Foote told the Free Press Foote would love to come to Detroit--much like his old teammate Earl Holmes did.  Larry, good God, would we love to have you.  The Lions would have to both sign AND draft multiple MLBs to switch to a 3-4, though; Lenon is currently the only "MLB" on the depth chart.

Read more...

old mother hubbard: the defensive ends

As we saw, several of the defensive tackles (Redding, Cody, Fluellen, Cohen) have a build, athleticism (or both) suitable for flexing to the outside in a 3-4, or even 4-3 alignment.  Let's now take a look at the ends . . .

Dewayne White: Signed to a moderately lucrative free agent contract after the 2006 season, White was a Tampa Bay understudy who'd shown promise as a situational pass rusher, but hadn't been able to crack the starting lineup.  At 6'-2", 273 lbs, White is a protoypical 4-3 strongside end, reminiscent of Robert Porcher.  He possesses the natural size and strength to not be a liability in the run game, while still being athletic enough to be effective as a pass rusher.  Initially he was supposed to be a bookend to former Lion Kalimba Edwards--but when Edwards couldn't generate the pressure that the Tampa 2 requires, White was frequently used out-of-position on the weakside.  This means that instead of trying to beat bigger, slower right tackles, White was usually lined up against the opponent's best pass blocker.  There were doubts that White had enough speed to be consistently disruptive there--yet, in his first seven games as a Lion, White had 23 tackles, 5.5 sacks, 1 interception and three passes defensed.  This included a monster performance against his former team, the Bucs: 8 tackles (7 solo), 3 sacks, and 1 pass defensed.  Anyone who watched this game had a hard time not feeling like the Lions might have finally gotten a free agent signing right.  At the pivot point of the season, however, when the Lions were 6-2 and riding high, White injured a tricep.  He missed the debacle at Arizona, and the brutal home loss to the Giants (two of the worst football games I can remember watching).   Though he rushed himself back to help stop the Lions' bleeding, he wasn't as effective.  White finished with 43 tackles and 6.5 sacks--five of those tackles coming in the last game of the year.  In 2008, it was practically the same story: White roared through the first half of the season, including 5.5 sacks and a monster 10-tackle game against Houston--then got injured, missed 4 games, and ended up with just 38 tackles and 6.5 sacks.  White is a fiery competitor and a great 4-3 strongside end, but he has to find a way to stay healthy for 16 games.  If he could keep up his typical first-eight-weeks production, he would be an 80-tackle, 12-sack guy; Pro Bowl material.  Unfortunately, in a 3-4 White would be lost--3-4 ends take up blockers and stop the run, they don't rush the passer.  And at 273 pounds, White may be a good athlete but he's no LOLB.  In the 3-4 he'd be asked to cover tight ends in space, keep contain on screens . . . I don't see it happening.  As a point of pure interest, White played at Louisville, and his freshman-through-junior seasons were during Scott Linehan's tenure there as the offensive coordinator.  Bottom line: When healthy, White is an excellent all-around 4-3 SDE in the Porcher mold, but injuries have hampered his productivity.  His contract alone will keep him around for '09, but a shift to a 3-4 would make him a fifth (fourth?) wheel.

Cliff Avril:  Avril was drafted in the third round of the 2008 draft.  Avril was an outside linebacker at Purdue, though he was pressed into service at the defensive end spot his senior year.  He was ranked as an OLB by just about every scouting service--though most noted that his ability to put a hand down, combined with his size (6'-3", 252#), made his a prime candidate for a 3-4 pass-rushing ROLB.  He expressed suprise to the media at the time (though can't find a quote right now) that an NFL team saw him as a down lineman, but made the commitment to be the best end he could be.  He came through, and then some.  Marinelli seemed to be intent on keeping Avril under wraps--he didn't see the field until after the bye week.  He got his first sack against Washington in Week 8, and kept it up from there.  By Week 14 he was the starting rush end, and he ended up leading all rookies with 5 sacks and 4 forced fumbles.  Avril displayed the rare edge speed and natural burst--what Marinelli disturbingly calls "get-off"--to blow past left tackles and sack the quarterback.  Not only did he get actual sacks, he generated consistent pressure: flushing the QB out of the pocket, forcing a hurried throw, getting him to step up (and be sacked by a DT).  THAT is the kind of pressure that the Tampa 2 requires to be successful.  Had White and Avril been at their peak production at the same time, and the Lions been able to hold a team to less than five yards per carry rushing, you would have seen a lot more of the defense Rod Marinelli was trying to build.  Now, Avril hasn't done it for anywhere near a whole season, and he hasn't had to face double-teams yet.  In a 4-3, he must spend all offseason trying to add upper-body strength and honing his technique.  He's going to have to be able to get and keep hands off of him, and he's going to have to develop a strong inside move to keep OTs honest.  In a 3-4, his upside is practically unlimited--he could easily be the next Lamar Woodley. At Gunther's introductory press conference, he gushed about Avril's potential and how he'll use him in many ways.  Bottom Line: Avril is a real gem, and possesses legitimate pass-rush ability, either as a 4-3 rush end or a 3-4 ROLB.  He should get double-digit sacks in 2009, almost regardless of scheme.

Ikaika Alama-Francis: The man they call "Five-O" (he's from Hawaii . . . GET IT?!?!?!) is a 6'-5", 280 lb. SDE who, theoretically, possesses a rare combination of size, speed, and strength.  He dominated at Hawaii, despite never having played football until then-Hawaii-DC Jerry Glanville (yes, he who used to leave tickets for Elvis at the Georgia Dome) saw him play on the basketball team and invited him to try out for the pigskin squad.  Apparently Glanville called him "the most talented defensive lineman" he ever coached, which is saying something.   Still, when he was drafted in the second round, the Lions staff made it clear that "Five-O" was a long-term project.  Brutally raw in technique and use of leverage, Marinelli thought he could grill this rare slab of meat into a 290-pound DE steak.  We have not seen much of IAF--he barely saw the field his rookie year, and played in 13 games with 2 starts in 2008.  In those two starts, he garnered a mere three tackles combined.  However, he showed up big in two road games, at Houston and at Indianapolis; in both games he had four tackles and half a sack.  I'd like to say this shows flashes of his promise being fulfilled, but . . . well, it doesn't.  Five-O is still completely green, and it remains to be seen if the light will go on in time.  If he somehow put it together, with his frame and athleticism could make him a true force against the run at the 4-3 SDE spot.  He could be a great rotational combo with Dewayne White, possibly flexing to under tackle on obvious passing downs.  For that matter, IAF's frame and game make him a perfect 3-4 DE; perfect for demanding and occupying blockers.  He and Shaun Cody, at the peak of their potential, could be hugely disruptive wingmen if centered by a proper nose tackle.  Bottom Line: Five-O might remind MSU basketball fans of Marquise Gray: a potentially devastating talent who hasn't yet put it together--and may not ever.  For now, throw him on the "4-3 SDE/UT project who'd make a theoretically ideal 3-4 DE" pile.

Corey Smith: a sixth-year journeyman who started his career in . . . take a guess?  Yes, Tampa Bay.  At 6-2", 250", he seems undersized, but he plays bigger than that.  As the backup rush end, I intially wrote him off, but Smith seemed to have a way of getting in on plays.  In just 12 games and 3 starts, Smith racked up 30 tackles, 3 sacks, and an interception; rivalling Cliff Avril's production.  Towards the end of the year, it seemed like I was always mumbling to myself, "Hey, there goes Corey Smith again." However, where Avril was a rookie in 2009, at age 29 Smith is in his theoretical prime.  Smith appears to be a hardworking, high-motor guy who doesn't give up on plays and has good instincts.  He's a valuable reserve who's shown he can come off the bench and rush the passer.  I haven't seen him play in space, but he could probably translate to OLB in a 3-4 quite easily.  Bottom Line: Smith is a low-cost hard worker--and could probably rush the passer out of any scheme.  A depth keeper.

Jared Devries: DeVreis, Iowa's all-time #1 sackmaster, has found a way to stick on the Lions' roster through ten seasons, six head coaches, and an almost unfathomable number of losses.  A third-round pick in 1999, DeVries persevered, and started a career-high 10 games in 2007, and 9 in 2008.  A quintessential case of effort and heart overcoming lack of talent, the 6'-4", 275 lb. Iowa farmboy has put up just 16.5 sacks in his ten-year career, 6.5 of which came in his breakout year in 2007.  However, with Avril and Smith at the rush end spot, Devries will have to go back to waiting for someone (Dewayne White) to get hurt.  Unfortuately, he may not have to wait long . . . Bottom Line: a great guy, all effort and heart.  One of the very very very few pre-Millen Lions left.  I'd love to see him retire a Lion, but he might have to fight for a roster spot next season if the Lions stay in a 4-3 . . . can't see a place for him in a 3-4.

SUMMARY: The defensive ends are a classic case of perspective.  If you put on the rose-colored glasses, Dewayne White and Cliff Avril are double-digit sackers when healthy, and could be very dangerous when paired.  IAF could play a "Justin Tuck"-ish role in the defense, going both inside and outside to maximize his strengths.  Corey Smith and Jared Devries are both high-effort veterans.  OR . . . Avril hasn't proved anything, getting five sacks in some meaningless games, Dewayne White is always hurt, IAF is a project and will always bee one, and Smith and Devries are scrubs.

Given all the other holes, I'm choosing optimism here.  In the middle of the season, I wanted a blazing 4-3 rush end like Brian Orakpo . . . but I've since become an Avril believer.  Considering how all-around awful the defense was, ANY depth or talent added to ANY defensive position would be nice.  If a third-rounder was spent on an eventual Smith/Devries replacement, I would consider it wise for sure--but, I don't see a real need to acquire a starter at defensive end this year.  At 4-3, we're okay, and at 3-4, we have about six possible 3-4 DEs to fight for two starting spots.

Read more...