Giving Thanks

I hope you all had as wonderful of a holiday weekend as I did.  Spending lots of do-nothing time with friends and family is a great way to relax, recharge, and reinvigorate yourself.  I also went to my official 10-year high school reunion--nothing screams “high school” like having two reunions—and I’m still kind of grooving off of the whole reconnection vibe.

In that spirit, I'm going to virtually reconnect with a lot of the folks who've been there for me throughout the eleven months I've been writing. In absolutely no particular order . . .

• Steve from Detroit Lions Weblog was an early inspiration. When I was considering starting TLIW, I knew absolutely nothing about the Lions blogosphere.  I spent a couple of weeks looking around to see what blogs were out there already, what was being written, and what was being read.  I was taken by Steve's ability to simply write about the Lions, holding nothing back in either emotion or vocabulary.  Reading him express himself completely, and then let those words stand alone, convinced me that what I wanted to do could be done.
• Reverend Spielman over at the Church of Schwartz has put together what just might be the best regular feature of the Lions blogosphere: the Lions Congregation.  This roundtable of Lions bloggers, discussing three new Reverend-composed questions, has sussed out the gamut of reasonable opinions on almost every Lions topic.  Frankly, it’s a must-read for anyone who likes intelligent Lions analysis.  Beyond the Congregation, the Rev and his partner, Deacon Blades Boyd, do some very sharp analysis of their own.  They also hail from the Great White North, and therefore connect a lot of international readers with the greater Lions community.
• Phil Zaroo over at Mlive has been an incredible boon to me, and the rest of the Lions blogosphere.  Phil reads just about every Lions blog there is, and regularly links the best of all of them (and me) in his Highlight Reel blog, which has provided me with the lion’s share (ha ha) of my exposure and traffic.  However, Phil's much more than a linking machine.  He writes with his own voice, both frequently and well.
• Kevin Seifert at ESPN.com is technically an “NFC North” blogger.  However, he not only has the regional knowledge of being a Vikings beat for years, has the sources and resources of the Worldwide Leader at his fingertips, he takes the time to do a genuinely awesome job with his Lions analysis.  He also did me the amazing favor of writing about, and linking to, a TLIW post.
• David M of NFL Draft Blogger has all the college pigskin knowledge I lack, and he puts that to good work doing all the draft prep that I, at best, put off until February.  He’s also a Lions fan, and both reads and comments here from time to time.  Frequently, we pick each other’s brain over IM, and the result is better stuff for all you folks.
• Sean Yuille at the Pride of Detroit does an amazing job breaking down all the latest news, reports, and rumors about the Lions.  He actually got a hold of the complete style sheet for the new Lions fonts, logo, and uniform weeks before anyone else had it.  In my early days, I tried to keep pace with him on that stuff--it only took a couple of weeks before I realized I was just parroting him and knocked it off.  More than that, though, I admire the way Sean has built a massive community; plenty of people write their own mini-blogs and one-shot posts under the umbrella of PoD.
• I would be beyond remiss if I didn't also mention DrewsLions, a regular poster at PoD, and an excellent commenter here.  Drew writes from the heart, much as I do, and we’ve frequently admired each other’s work.  This next bit has nothing to do with his writing or the Lions, but Drew has recently been through a profound personal struggle; I can only hope that if I were in the same situation, I’d have half of the resilience and strength of spirit he’s shown.
• No rundown of awesome dudes in the Lions blogosphere could be without Greg Eno, and his partner in knee-jerking, Big Al of the Wayne Fontes Experience.  Their weekly Blog Talk Radio show/podcast, “The Knee Jerks”, is a whole lot of good talk, good interviews, and just plain good stuff on all the Detroit pro teams.  Both Greg and Big Al are well-spoken on air, comfortable with each other, and clearly have a good time while they’re doing it.  Greg’s a professional writer who’s started and maintained several outstanding blogs—notably, Out of Bounds, and enotes (non-sports).  Big Al is a very smart, very funny guy who is unafraid to drop Star Trek, Life is Hell, Invader Zim, or The Three Stooges screenshots into his work—sometimes, all in the same post!  His weekly Facepalm Awards are not to be missed; here’s a prime example.  Big Al’s gotten a lot bigger lately with his incredibly invasive, but incredibly successful back surgery--here’s to that!
• Big Al's stuff has been so smart, so funny, so consistently, that he's been asked to contributed to Mlive.com's It’s Just Sports.  Patrick Hayes and company over there consistently deliver the daily news about Michigan (and national) sports with a sly grin and a barbed stinger.  They also did me the honor of a feature article and interview a little while ago, and I’m incredibly thankful for that.
• Speaking of smart and funny, Neil over at Armchair Linebacker is in a class all by himself.  Any regular TLIW readers have both seen me highlight his work, and seen him comment here, many times.  What Neil does is something I’m consistently astounded by: with wit, style, and sparkling prose he captures the profound depression and unstoppable optimism that comes with being a Lions fan.  We’ve often noted that our work seems like two sides of the same coin: I soar through my blue-sky optimism on patched and tattered wings, while he trudges through the marshes of the river Styx, protecting his blue-flamed candle from the muck and the mire.
• Lastly, and very far from leastly, is DF79's Roar of the Lions.  He started the way I did: with nothing but will a Blogspot account.  However, he recently joined forces with Fanball to present the same great material in some very shiny new digs.  He’s knowledgeable and analytical—yet, he writes with personality and passion, much as I do.  As a fellow young father of multiple kids, he and I both experienced the great joys of mixing family and fandom.  DF79 and I share a love of coffee, and we’ve even been lucky enough to share Lions talk over lattes at our mutual favorite establishment.  He and his have also experienced a recent loss; I hope this time of reconnection helps his family recover.

I really could keep going for days; there are many folks (be they Lions-, sports-, or non-sports) that have inspired me from afar, checked out my writing, linked to my writing, collaborated with me, or otherwise deserve mention; there’s too many to list them all.  I just wanted to take this time to make sure that everyone reading knows how much this site’s been lifted up by all my fellow Lions bloggers—most of whom have been plowing this frozen ground for far longer than I have.  Infinite thanks to them, and to you.

Be well, everyone, and may peace be with you and yours throughout this holiday season.

--Ty

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Gameday chat: Thanksgiving

We, as Lions fans, don’t have a whole lot to be thankful for—at least, not when it comes to our team.  However, we do have one special day: today.  Our team has been synonymous with this holiday for three quarters of a century.  Today, the record goes out the window, and the blue bonfire roars.  Today, Ford Field sells out, no problem.  Today, the entire nation will tune in to see the new-look Lions.

Of course, they probably won’t see the new-look Lions.  Matthew Stafford is officially doubtful, and Megatron is questionable.  The stage has been set for yet another Thanksgiving bloodbath, and yet another chorus of national fans and media grousing about having to watch the lousy Lions.

Fortunately, the new head coach knows the importance of this game—both to the franchise itself, and to its fans.  Even having been on the opposing sideline here last year—and thus contributing the most complete dominations of one football team by another I’ve ever seen—he knows how important it is that this game remain the national showcase for the Lions, and for Lions fans everywhere.

Please, share your thoughts on the game, your warm Lions memories, and your Thanksgiving thanks in the comments.  Happy Thanksgiving, to you and yours.

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The Watchtower: Packers at Lions

Traditionally, I start each Watchtower with a postmortem analysis of the previous game’s Watchtower.  Suffice it to say, the Lions and Browns completely blew all of my predictions out of the water.  Regular commenter Matt actually did much better than I:

"You have to put the Browns' defense in perspective: MY perspective. My fantasy football team went into that game needing the Browns to hold Joe Flacco AND Ray Rice to less than 14 points. They combined for 13! This threw me into a 4-way division tie (all 5-5) instead of being two games back. The Browns D also aided this by keeping the Ravens' kicker in check. So, even though the team lost, the Browns D was simply stepping up to help out a fantasy football geek. :-) We can now extrapolate this to next week's Lions/Browns game. The only player from this game on either fantasy roster is Matt Stafford (my opponent as no Lions or Browns). He will be on my bench behind Brett Favre. This surely means that Stafford will have his break-out game, throwing for 400 yards and 5 TDs, as the Lions completely trounce the Browns while my Las Vegas Kings lose a heartbreaker. :-)"

When I initially penned the last Watchtower, it was on the heels of a game where the Browns had played the Ravens; they threw the ball further than five yards downfield only a handful of times.  Not only did the announcers in the booth call this out as it happened, the postgame analysts carped on it as well--and then the Cleveland media, national NFL media, and entire football blogosphere spent the next entire week flogging the Browns for their total lack of downfield balls.

Pun intended.

It only stands to reason, then, that with the 31st-ranked scoring defense--minus some starters in the secondary, and minus some of the replacements for those starters—next on the schedule, the Browns would give downfield passing a whirl.  The results were, well, typical.  Meanwhile the Lions, rather than getting ahead early and turning to Kevin Smith as I’d predicted, again abandoned the run and asked Stafford to win the ballgame.  This time, it worked.

Okay, the Packers:

Mike McCarthy vs. Gunther Cunningham

	McC	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
2003	NOS	TEN	14	21.2	6.43	4.46	29th	27.2	8.05	4.62	12	8.04	0	1.53	3-20
2004	NOS	KCC	14	21.8	6.62	3.96	16th	20.3	6.58	4.10	27	9.59	1	5.83	4-19
2009	GBP	DET	8th	26.2	7.41	4.46	32nd	30.1	7.84	4.47	26	9.68	1	3.57	5-30

The Packers are the second team to feel the searing gaze of the eye atop the Watchtower twice in one season.  The first time around, I concluded that:

Given equal or greater talent, Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive 4-3 disproportionately disrupts Mike McCarthy’s downfield flavor of the Bill Walsh offense. Given lesser talent, Gunther’s 4-3 will cap offensive production with sacks and turnovers, even while allowing better-than-average offensive effectiveness between the 20s.

Then, in the midseason review of the Watchtower feature, I smugly pointed out that:

• The Packers scored 26 points, which exactly matched their average on the season to that point.
• Aaron Rodgers completed 29 of 37, for a whopping 358 yards (and 9.68 yards per attempt!).
• Rodgers, however, was sacked five times, and intercepted once. The Lions also forced three fumbles, recovering one.
• Rodgers passed for only two touchdowns, and those were on the first two drives (one of which started on the Lions' 17).
• The Packers as a whole did not score a touchdown after cashing in on the opening-drive Culpepper turnover.

Of course, things are a little different now.  The Lions’ secondary has been decimated, degrading said unit from “suspect” to “dumpster fire”.  The Packers’ offense has clicked a little more, too, with the OL protecting better than, you know, not at all, and the WRs beginning to get open deep again.  Though my conclusions about McCarthy’s offense and Cunningham’s defense proved to be spookily correct the first time around, merely projecting a repeat of the prior game would be hubris.

Let's instead look at the Packers’ current stats, the Lions’ current stats, and then apply the same advantage to those figures.  The Packers are now the 8th-best scoring offense, averaging 26.2 PpG.  They’re passing for an impressive 7.41 YpA, and rushing for a surprising 4.46 YpG.  Meanwhile, the Lions are allowing 30.1 PpG, surrendering 7.84 YpA, and being run on to the tune of 4.47 YpG. 

One would expect the Packers to significantly outperform their season averages—that is, score well over 26 points, and gain passing and rushing yards at a pace well over their typical per-play average.  However, if we apply the systemic advantage it appears Gunther Cunningham’s aggressive defenses have against Mike McCarthy’s offense, scoring should be somewhere above the Lions’ allowed average—the Packers are a well-above-average offense—but below, like, a zillion points.  Meanwhile, the Pack should be able to move between the 20s more or less at will.

Therefore, the Packers should score 34-38 points, pass for 9.00-10.00 YpA, and run for 4.50-4.75 YpC. I have very high confidence in this prediction.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

If it weren't for the frequent turnovers by, and rampant futility of, the Lions offense, the Packers might not have scored even the 26 points that they did. Moreover, the Lions were without Matt Stafford and Calvin Johnson--which, as we've discussed before, absolutely destroys the Lions' offense.

Of course, the Lions may not have Stafford or Megatron available this time, either, but if they do play, the defense won’t be hung out to dry as badly as before. Also, the Lions’ defense was even more banged up last time—3/4ths of the starting defensive line was out---so the crappy secondary being even more crappy might not be as big of a factor.

Another interesting factor to note: instead of the Lions trying to break a 19-year-old losing streak at LLLLAAAAAMMMMMBOOOWWW FEEEEEEEEEELLLD, they'll be playing at home, in front of a sellout crowd, on national TV, in the Lions’ annual showcase game.  I don’t think this will matter anywhere near as much as Stafford/Culpepper, or Megatron/no Megatron, but the Lions have been much “better” at home than on the road. 

Scott Linehan vs. Dom Capers

	Lin	Capers	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	DYpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
2004	MIN	HOU	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	21st	19.3	6.89	3.92	34	7.92	0	4.69	3-8
2008	STL	MIA	30th	14.5	5.67	3.95	21st	21.6	6.61	2.35	12	4.26	3	4.30	0-0
2009	DET	GBP	24th	18.1	5.60	3.91	12th	20.3	6.17	4.46	0	4.20	3	4.33	5-34

Okay, the last time we did this, I concluded:

Scott Linehan's balanced, conventional offense is disproportionately successful against an aggressive, blitzing 3-4. This will be the third such defense that the Lions face, and they've outperformed averages against the two prior units. If Kevin Smith is his usual, steady self, and Matt Stafford is able to play, I expect the Lions to score between 24-28 points.

This is why I started breaking the analysis out from the "influencing factors"!  There was a monstrous whopper of an “if” in there, and I utterly failed to account for it.  Still, I don’t think anyone would have predicted how poorly Daunte Culpepper would play.  4.20 yards per attempt?  That’s criminally bad.  For what it’s worth, the Lions did rush for a very respectable 4.20 YpC.

It’s almost impossible to tell what’s going to happen here.  Given the Culpepper/Stanton in-and-out, no Megatron, and the immediate TD/turnover/TD sequence putting the Lions on their heels two minutes in, I’m not going to attribute the shutout earlier this year to scheme-on-scheme interaction.  That leaves us with the earlier conclusion, that Linehan’s offenses are unusually good against blitzing 3-4s, especially when the running game is working well.

Unfortunately, given the loss of Stephen Peterman, I don’t see Kevin Smith rushing any better than he did the first time around.  If the Lions, as probable, are playing from behind early again, a rushing attack averaging 4.2 yards a carry is not going to force the Packers to adjust to stop it.

I have to project this based on the assumptions that Daunte Culpepper and Bryant Johnson will be starting in the stead of the newly-christened avatar of the Lions franchise and, arguably, the most dangerous downfield threat in football.  Given the way the Packers defense has been playing (12-ranked scoring defense!), this is an insurmountable challenge.

Even accounting for the systemic advantage I still believe a fully realized Linehan offense has against a Capers-style 3-4, the Lions should meet, or slightly underperform, their season averages: 14-17 points, 5.25-5.50 YpA, and 3.85-4.15 YpC.

Mitigating/Augmenting Influences:

Yeesh, this Linehan/Capers section has been almost all “influences” already, but here we go.  Obviously, Matthew Stafford is now THE QUARTERBACK, and losing him is a great loss indeed.  Megatron is the only weapon that defenses respect, and losing him is an even bigger loss.  However, last Sunday, the Packers have lost both their top corner, Al Harris, and their top pass rusher, Aaron Kampman, for the rest of the season.

While I’m not exactly salivating over the Charles Woodson-versus-Bryant Johnson matchup, the Lions’ remaining wideouts should have much better looks than they did the first time around.   Moreover, as miscast as Kampman has been this season, he’s still a naturally gifted pass rusher, and losing him partially de-fangs a defense whose bite has been much worse than its bark this season.

Unfortunately, for the second week in a row, we find the Watchtower’s view obfuscated.  This offense without a healthy Stafford and Megatron simply isn’t the same offense—and while it’s only on the low end of mediocre with them, it’s absolutely wretched without them.  Let’s be real, here, folks: if both Stafford and Megatron can’t go, this is going to be another bloodbath, regardless of who is out on the other side, or what logo is at midfield.  It kills me to say it, but unless the young binary stars of this franchise take the field on Turkey Day, the national audience is going to get treated to yet another Thanksgiving fiasco.

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