Old Mother Hubbard: 2010 NFL Draft Recap

Let's review the Lions' 2010 NFL draft shopping list:

• A developmental quarterback who could push Stanton in camp.
• A starting, three-down power runningback with speed.
• A developmental power-blocking fullback, to complement Jerome Felton.
• A left tackle, who could be groomed to replace Jeff Backus.
• A power-blocking center, to be groomed behind Raiola.
• A starting, disruptive pass-rushing DT to rotate w/Williams & Hill.
• A starting, three-down, two-way defensive end, a la Kyle Vanden Bosch.
• A developmental middle linebacker.
• A starting, athletic, blitzing outside linebacker, a la Julian Peterson.
• At least one starting cornerback.
• A starting safety, who’s very strong in pass coverage.

I'll be reprising last year's Meet the Cubs series, so I won't go into depth on each pick just yet--but look at the way the Lions addressed those needs. In fact, I'd say they may have strayed from their "BATFAN" strategy. Of course, Suh was the consensus #1 overall prospect, and fit a need, so he was unquestionably the Best Available That Fits A Need. However, the move back up to get Best was an attempt to get a specific player to fill a specific need.

Given the undeniably special talent Best possesses, and the perfect fit he represents, it was a good move--but it wasn't just taking BATFAN when their pick came up. It's worth noting that I was wrong about the Lions and Best; it sounds like he was their target all along, as Killer had said. Rather than a power back with speed, they now have a home-run-hitting speed back, who's strong enough to hold up for three downs.

After the trade up for Best, the Lions stood pat throughout the second round, and into the third, finally taking Amari Spievey when their next pick came around. Spievey, arguably, wasn't the even consensus best corner on the board at that point. Again, I have no knowledge of the Lions' prospect grades, nor do I know what their assessment of their own cornerbacks. But in my eyes, it's undeniable: the Lions reached to fill a need, because the need was great, and later picks wouldn't fill it.

I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Am I wrong, and the Lions took the top player left on their board? Am I wrong, and the Lions don't see corner as an extreme need? Or, are the Lions beginning to see their roster one that has a few "holes" that must be "filled" instead of a lifeless vaccuum, desperate for any talent that can be found?

It could be any of those reasons--or all, or some, or none of those reasons. I wouldn't be the first to compare the Spievey pick to last year's controversial third-round choice, DeAndre Levy. Of course, Levy didn't take long to endear himself to the Lions' coaches and fans. But on the day he was drafted he still appeared to be a reach for a great need; I can only hope Spievey turns out as well as Levy.

The remaining picks appear to stick to the BATFAN philosophy-and in fact, did a very good job of getting intriguing prospects in the fourth and seventh rounds. When you add in the UDFA signing of FB Matt Clapp, the Lions came very close to snagging the entire shopping list--when I'd said it wouldn't be possible. Here's what's left:

• A developmental quarterback who could push Stanton in camp.
• A power-blocking center, to be groomed behind Raiola.
• A starting, three-down, two-way defensive end, a la Kyle Vanden Bosch.
• A developmental middle linebacker.
• A starting, athletic, blitzing outside linebacker, a la Julian Peterson.
• A starting safety, who’s very strong in pass coverage.

There's a little more information yet to consider: at one point, during the second day, Tom Kowalski reported via Twitter that there was a rumor that Cliff Avril had been traded to Miami for a fifth-round pick. Killer then called the Lions to confirm, and the Lions told Killer that:

After a few phone calls -- and a lot of stern denials -- it was clear the Lions were not trading Avril. In fact, the Lions actually are very happy with Avril's approach to the offseason. He showed up with an extra 10 pounds of muscle and has been working very hard during the offseason workouts. Avril, who has a better relationship with new defensive line coach Kris Kocurek than he did with the recently retired Bob Karmelowicz, has turned up his intensity.

Well, if that's all true, we can optimistically pencil in Avril as the starting left end. And, while we're at it, we can assume the Lions aren't interested in pushing Stanton, either--they didn't even sign a UDFA quarterback as a camp arm. Therefore, the remaining list looks like this:

• A power-blocking center, to be groomed behind Raiola.
• A developmental middle linebacker.
• A starting, athletic, blitzing outside linebacker, a la Julian Peterson.
• A starting safety, who’s very strong in pass coverage.

So, the Lions are only an outside linebacker and a free safety away from having a playoff-caliber starting lineup? Well, no. We're presuming that all of these free agent signees and drafted-to-start rookies actually step in and play at a high level, which never happens. My personal rule of thumb is that when a team acquires a player to step in and start, it works out about 50% of the time. So, take Suh, Best, Spievey, Scheffler, Sims, Houston, Burleson, Vanden Bosch, and Williams, and flip a coin for each. Anyone who comes up "tails", assume their role will be on next year's shopping list.

Have I depressed you? Sorry; I didn't mean to--and you shouldn't be depressed, anyway. The amount of talent the Lions have added in this offseason is impressive--and when you consider just how far the roster has come since I stared this blog, the day Mayhew and Lewand took over, it's nothing short of astonishing. Of course, it's all on paper until we see it on the field, but this draft did nothing to shake my faith that this time, things really will be different.

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