On Thanksgiving, Lions Fans Give Thanks

>> 11.21.2012

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“…although it be not always so plentiful as it was at this time with us, yet by the goodness of God, we are so far from want that we often wish you partakers of our plenty.”

-- Edward Winslow, A Relation or Journal of the Beginning and Proceedings of the English Plantation Settled at Plimoth in New England

Ten games in to the 2012 season, the Lions have won four games and lost six. Jeff Backus’s 186-game starting streak is about to end. Nate Burleson will be in crutches, cheering from the sideline. Titus Young will be in street clothes, inactivated for insubordination. Jahvid Best may never play again.

Corey Williams is iffy, Aaron Berry is in New York, Bill Bentley is on IR, and Drayton Florence will likely be out with a concussion. Two of the Lions’ top three safeties are on IR, and the third (Delmas) likely won't play either. Everything we thought this season would be is lost, or nearly so.

Now, let us fill Ford Field to the rafters and roar thanks for all our blessings.

Last season was the first season I made the more-literal-than-usual Pilgrimage to Ford Field on Thanksgiving Day. I was not surprised to find the atmosphere as it always seemed at home, on TV: an extra-special mood of festivity, a wide-open expression of joy and pride, a welcoming, party atmosphere.

There's something magical about the Lions on Thanksgiving, doubly so when you're there in person. Through thick and thin, and there's been an awful lot of very thin, this game sells out. It’s an annual national celebration of blessings, and no matter how bleak things have been on- and off-field for the Lions, their fans turn out in force to spend all day reveling in the immutable fact that we are still here.

The Pilgrims themselves gathered ‘round with some corn and some eel and some venison and a few pints of homebrew and toasted their incredible luck at just being able to do so. It’s the same with the Lions and their fans: spit on the team, on the City of Detroit, the State of Michigan, on our way of life all you want. Dismiss us, deny us, wish us all to lose our jobs, whatever.

We are still here.

We're here: 64,000 of us, 750,000 of us, four million of us, ten million of us, and we’re all wearing blue and fake turkeys on our heads and we’re going to raise a glass to one another and scream our fool heads off and you can’t deny it. You can’t take it away. We have our team, we have each other, and we are united in celebration of those simple facts; we are still here.

Whether you are there with me and mine tomorrow morning, or at home in the City of Detroit, or at home somewhere else, or visiting Grandma’s House, or even if you’re on the other side of the world: tomorrow we are all together, united in support of our team and each other.

There have been much, much worse seasons than this one. There have been much, much less exciting versions of our team. There have been much, much worse Thanksgiving Day games than this one will be, even if the Texans beat the Lions by more than the three-point spread. It’s not about the winning or the losing, though a win would be wonderful and a loss the final doom of the Lions’ playoff hopes.

Tomorrow, we give thanks for the blessings we have, and the blessings we have are so many: We have a team, we have a stadium, we have food and drink, we have each other, and we have hope. Always, always we have hope.

By the goodness of God, we are so far from want, we wish you partakers of our plenty.

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Turkey Day Q&A with TexansChick Steph Stradley

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Today, TLiW is thankful for Stephanie Stradley (@StephStradley on Twitter), a Houston lawyer who writes about the Houston Texans for the Houston Chronicle online and a general interest, non-Texans blog at her own site. Stephanie is a sports blog O.G., and one of the very best.

I answered her Qs with my As at her TexansChick Houston Chronicle blog, and after adding her own must-read analysis, she’s provided her own As for us, here:

What are differences between this Texans team and previous ones? And why are Andre Johnson's numbers (with the exception of last week) down this year?

“The Texans offense with few exceptions hasn't had to open up much because with better defense, the team has played with many early leads. Due to salary cap concerns, they had to replace the starting right guard and right tackle, which would also make a team lean toward a more conservative, less-risk filled approach. The strength of the 2012 Texans is their experienced tight ends relative to their young 3-5 WRs, so they can use their TEs to help the offensive line but also to make pass plays and create mismatches.

The Texans have three tight ends that are listed in the top 15 in TE efficiency: Owen Daniels, Garrett Graham and James Casey. Casey is not built like a traditional tight end and came into the league as a do-everything athlete after his remarkable time at Rice University. (Nickname: "Thor"). The Texans use him as a hybrid TE, FB, WR and line him up in various ways. They run/pass out of the same looking formations and create matchup problems for defenses, especially given that no teams look like what the Texans are doing this year.

Andre Johnson is still Andre Johnson. He's made key move-the-sticks plays, and big plays downfield. But this year he has functioned mostly as a "Break Glass In Case of Emergency" option. If the Texans have a big lead, there's no reason to take downfield shots at him. In the game against the Jaguars, he faced some unusual single coverage matchups. In addition, with the Texans down by 14 late, they started running more 3-4 wide receiver sets with a more open offense like they used to do a lot when their defense was terrible. Eventually, if the Texans decide they are going to throw on teams, Andre Johnson is going to get his.

He's a very unselfish player and would rather have wins over stats.

In general, the Texans offense is all about taking advantage of what the defense gives you. Some defenses load up against RB Arian Foster. Some defenses aim at taking Andre Johnson out of the game. So each week the targets are different...the yard can be all about Arian Foster or the TEs or the #2 WR or the Andre Johnson show. They have many ways they can be efficient in moving the ball, and I think Texans coach Gary Kubiak is underrated as a playcaller. (The old "It's the players when things are going well, and the playcalling when things aren't." If you talk to the Texans players, they have a great deal of respect for what Kubiak does).

It's also worth mentioning with Andre Johnson that both he and Matt Schaub were coming off of injury filled seasons where neither one of them had a full camp. Johnson says he is feeling more like himself as the season progresses.”


What are key injuries for this team or players coming off of injury?

“The number one concern is whether standout CB Johnathan Joseph is going to be available for this game given his hamstring issue coming out of the previous game. He's usually the corner who is matched up with the best WR when there's a clear dominant #1. The Texans haven't played a lot of snaps with him off of the field.

Probably the greatest loss for the Texans this year was losing ILB Brian Cushing for the year to an ACL injury suffered against the Jets. He is a physical player against the run and the pass and gave Wade Phillips flexibility for what he could call on defense. Against better offensive teams, his aggressive play in the middle of the field will be missed. Tim Dobbins has played well in replacement, but suffered a shoulder injury after an interception return that makes his return uncertain.

Darryl Sharpton was expected to play alongside Cushing in 2012, but had a hard time coming back from a quad injury suffered last year. He had his first game against the Jaguars after coming off of IR and played well despite the rust. He played well before his injury, and Texans fans will be watching if he is the same player now. He will likely get the start on Thursday.”


What do you think are the strengths of this Texans team?

“Balance. If you look at the best teams in 2012, they are very balanced between offense and defense. In recent years, there's been a trend for teams to be dominant on one side of the ball and use that dominance to overpower opponents. (Typical examples: Patriots, Colts). This year, there's a number of good teams that are balanced: Texans, 49ers, Broncos, Seahawks, Packers. Teams that can win through both their offensive and defensive play.

Even within their offense and defense, they are balanced. They're run/pass playcalling is almost 50/50, and they can be very effective doing either one or both. The Texans defense is balanced as well, being good against both the run and the pass.

The Texans defense third down percentage numbers allowed is absurdly low. Currently the Texans defense leads the league in fewest a 3rd down percentage made at 26%. To put in context, the Bears and 49ers are 2nd and 3rd in that number respectively at 32%, 33%.

The Texans are also 1st in the NFL at Time of Possession (excluding OT) at 34:38. The defense has been doing a great job at forcing punts, and the Texans are usually good for a number of clock chewing offensive drives each game and at the end of games with a lead.”


What concerns Texans fans?

“Special Teams. This is the biggest concern by far. This unit has a number of new faces and new a kicker and punter who weren't the plan A's going into the season. Coverage units rarely worked all together in the preseason, and they did not appear to be a cohesive group going into the season. The unit has had some untimely penalties, and sometimes have created problems with the field position battle. They've looked better in recent weeks, and the hope is that with more time together, they won't lose the Texans games.

The right side of the offensive line. The Texans have been doing an unusual rotation on the right side of their line. Usually it has been fine, but in a couple of games it has led to some cringeworthy shots against Matt Schaub and difficult yards for Arian Foster.

Pass rush other than JJ Watt. Second year defensive linemen JJ Watt has been having an absurdly productive year. They move him up and down the line to give him good matchups, and he often takes advantage. The question for some is whether the other linemen/OLB can take advantage of situations where JJ Watt is being double teamed. Given the wild productivity of the Texans defense in 2012, that might be a quibbling concern.”


What do you think is the best way to beat the Texans?

“Stop the run and don't overpursue such that the best playaction/zone running team in the league kills you. Disguise coverages and bring infrequent, delayed blitzes to keep Matt Schaub from finding a rhythm. Bring quality pass rush with only four rushers and make sure Schaub makes few clean throws.”


What do you think the Texans gameplan will be against the Lions?

“The Texans focus mostly on what they like to do. On defense, stop the run, don't get beat by the deep play, take plenty of hard shots on the quarterback. Give extra attention to what the opponent does best, in this case, make it difficult to throw to Calvin Johnson.

On offense, see what the defense is giving you with the scripted plays at the beginning of the game, and then take advantage of defensive tendencies and matchups. Throw early in the game to amass a big lead and then run a lot late to chew clock.”


Who are some Texans players that Lions fans may not know who may have an impact on the game either in a negative or positive way?

“I've already mentioned the tight ends. Specific to the line, Ben Jones is a rookie who is rotationally playing right guard. He was a quality center in college, didn't play guard but started working on it during camp. He rotates with Antoine Caldwell, and both of them have had some up and down moments. Right tackle Ryan Harris rotates with Derek Newton, and Harris sometimes reports as an eligible receiver in red zone situations.

Those from Michigan may be familiar with rookie WR Keshawn Martin who went to Michigan State. He had his first touchdown last week, and had his best game as a returner last week. The Texans are slowly giving their inexperienced WRs more work, and if this game becomes a shootout, it is easy to hear other receiving target names being called other than just Andre Johnson because of how much Schaub distributes the ball.”

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Three Cups Deep: Week 10, Lions at Vikings

>> 11.13.2012

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Fire is mysterious. It burns, it sears, it destroys—and it heals. You know me to be a man of facts, of analysis, of numbers and science and truth. But I’m also a man of emotion, perception, and faith in ultimate justice. There are times when truth is inescapable, and times when it is ineffable. There are times to rely on intellect, and times to open up to what we don’t know.

After nine games the Lions are one game below .500, and the Lions fanbase is wounded. We watched the Vikings again grind out an improbable victory, again saw the offense flail ineffectively as the defense stood tall, and again saw huge Vikings touchdowns nullify a spectacular fourth-quarter offensive awakening.

Once again, the Lions fanbase is crying in pain, dazed and struggling for answers. Are the Lions a good team, playing below expectations and falling victim to circumstance? Are the Lions an overrated team, a castle built on sand, heading for another complete collapse? Are the Lions a young team, experiencing growing pains as they learn to win? Or are these manifestations of that poltergiest undisciplinedness; Mikel Leshoure’s offseason pot habit mischievously causing Stafford to throw a pick, Ponder to throw deep spirals, Megatron to fumble and Adrian Peterson to reel off 120 yards in the last 15 minutes?

There is an ancient art of healing called fire cupping, which if you saw the Karate Kid reboot you know what I’m talking about: a lick of flame in a glass jar pressed against skin, causing a partial vacuum that bursts capillaries and rushes life-giving blood to the patient’s afflicted body part. Science, it isn’t. But in this case a little mysticism, a little blue flame, is exactly what Lions fans need.

While the treatment might be ineffable, the disease is not. The Lions offense is, statistically, still among the best in the NFL. They’ve gained the third-most yards, scored the 13th-most points, are ranked 6th in overall offense by Pro Football Focus, fifth in Offensive Expected Points Added and ninth in Offensive Win Probability Added. But anyone watching sees a much less effective offense.

calvin_johnson_detroit_lions_fumbleThe Lions are ranked 20th in average yards-per-attempt, tied with the league average at 7.2 YpA. This is down from 12th (7.8 YpA) in 2011. The Lions are a little bit better when interceptions and touchdowns are factored in: They rank 15th in the NFL in Adjusted YpA, at 7.0--but they ranked 7th in the NFL last season with 7.8 AYpA. The most telling stat of all? Yards per Completion, where the Lions dropped from 14th (12.0 YpC) to 23rd (11.4 YpC). Nevertheless, the Lions lead the NFL in passing attempts, just as they did last season.

So: the Lions are throwing the ball much less farther down the field, and they’re doing it less effectively. For the first three quarters of nearly every game, Matthew Stafford is able to hit the broad side of a barn, but it seems like he’s only able to hit the broad side of a barn.

In prior games, Stafford’s problem has been his ineffectiveness on third down. The Lions were again dreadful on third down (1-of-9, 11%) against the Vikings, but that was because they were so often dreadful on first down, especially in the first half.

By my count, the Lions faced 35 first downs on Sunday, 17 in the first half. Of those, they rushed 9 times at 3.1 YpC (10 at 3.7 including a Stafford scramble), and passed 7 times at 6.71 YpA. In the first quarter, the Lions lined up for a first down, and were held to two yards or less five times. That’s just not good enough. Putting the offense in constant second-and-long and third-and-long situations is going to result in punts.

Punts kill defenses.

Through the first seven quarters the Lions faced the Vikings in 2012, the Lions allowed 153 rushing yards and no touchdowns from Adrian Peterson, and 312 passing yards and 1 touchdown from Christian Ponder. That’s 106 offensive plays, an average of 4.39 yards per play, and seven offensive points.

In the last quarter, the dam burst: the Lions allowed 120 yards and a touchdown to Adrian Peterson, plus a 20-yard touchdown pass to Christian Ponder. That’s 15 offensive plays, an average of 9.33 yards, and 18 offensive points.

The Lions are an offensive team. It is built to score 28-plus points every time it takes the field. This Lions defense is an aggressive defense, built to ravage teams playing catch-up. Asking them to completely deny Adrian Peterson any yards and the end zone for eight quarters is asking too much. Asking this defense to shut down the run and suffocate the pass for eight quarters is too much. Asking this defense to make up for a cornucopia of punts and turnovers committed by a 200-million-dollar offense is too much.

Stafford and the offense have to stop playing scared in the first quarter, and incandescently in the fourth. Stafford has to stop breaking down and rolling out and flushing away when he’s got the second-best pass protection in the NFL.

But what, you ask, is the good news? That the incandescent play of Stafford & Co. is still there. That the switch is still able to be flipped. That when push comes to shove, these coaches, these players, and these schemes can still rip other teams to shreds. As long as all the elements are in place, anything is possible—even making the playoffs.

Before you scoff, remember: the Lions have made the playoffs from unlikelier circumstances.

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