Lies, Damned Lies, & Mikel Leshoure’s “Career Ending Injury.” A Study in Devilish Details

A third of NFL players who rupture their Achilles tendon never play again. The rest are significantly less effectiveness and durable. These are facts, gleaned from an actual medical journal, The Lower Extremity Review:

Of the 31 players who sustained an Achilles tendon rupture, 21 (64%) returned to play in the NFL at an average of 11 months after injury. In the three seasons following their return, those 21 players saw significant decreases in games played and power ratings compared to the three seasons preceding the injury.

This study is being shared far and wide around the Lions-y corners of the Internet, and fans are mutually crying in their coffee this morning knowing that poor Mikel Leshoure’s career is over before it started. “No elite running back has ever returned to top form after this kind of injury,” the pundits are saying, and the fans are hanging their heads and repeating that line to each other.

Days like today are why I started this blog.

A study says that Achilles tears are all but a death sentence for NFL players, eh? Well, let’s have a closer look at that study. In fact, the LER article cites several individual studies, but primarily draws conclusions from one published in 2002:

Parekh et al used a player’s power rating as a measure of functional outcome in the evaluation of “skill players” in the NFL, which included defensive tackles, cornerbacks, linebackers, wide receivers, and running backs.3 The power rating is a measure of a player’s performance using statistics gathered during game play, such as passing and rushing yards for an offensive player and tackles and interceptions for a defensive player. This study showed that 31 acute Achilles tendon ruptures occurred in NFL players between 1997 and 2002. The average age of a player sustaining a rupture was 29, with an average career before injury spanning six years.

Of the 31 players who sustained an Achilles tendon rupture, 21 (64%) returned to play in the NFL at an average of 11 months after injury. In the three seasons following their return, those 21 players saw significant decreases in games played and power ratings compared to the three seasons preceding the injury.

Let's reduce this to bullet points:

• The study covered 31 players playing from fourteen to nine years ago.
• The average age of the players at the time of injury was 29.
• The average career length at the time of injury was six years.
• 10 of the 31 players studied did not return to the NFL.
• Those players who returned did so after an average of 11 months out.
• Affected players’ production steeply declined over 3 post-rehab seasons.

In 1997, there were 30 teams in the NFL. Multiply that by 53, and that’s 1,590 active roster spots. Assume 15% turnover (that’s conservative, 2010’s churn was 20.04%), plus teams 31 and 32 joining the league during the study, and you have roughly 2,800 players in your data set. With just 31 rupturing an Achilles tendon, that’s a very rare injury, affecting only 1.1%.

The average player in this study was 29, and the average career length was six years. Nobody on the Lions exactly matches that. The Lions have two 29-year-olds with seven years of experience: Stephen Peterman and Isaiah Ekejiuba. The 29-year-olds with eight or more years are Nate Burleson, Nathan Vasher, Erik Coleman, and Don Muhlbach. The Lions only had one 28-year-old with six years of experience, Tony Scheffler . . . until they signed Mike Bell and Jerome Harrison to try and replace Leshoure; both of them are 28-year-old six-year veterans.

How many of those guys above could pop an Achilles, take eleven months to rehab, secure a starting spot, and then stay just as productive over the next three years as they were for their first six or seven? None, because the average NFL career only lasts six years—and that’s going by the rosier league estimate. How many studies have we seen proving NFL players—especially tailbacks—hit the wall at 30, injuries or no? All this study has done is point out what we already knew: the shelf life of most NFL players is short, and major injuries are a major obstacle. It has nothing to do with the Achilles tendon.

I don’t have access to injury data, but I’d bet you a dollar that these figures would look exactly the same for ruptured ACLs, fractured patellas, torn biceps, broken femurs, or any other season-ending injury sustained by NFL players. None of this data is specifically relevant to a 21-year-old rookie in the best shape of his life, after a college career where he only carried a full load for one season. No elite running back in recent memory has come back from a ruptured Achilles at full speed, because no elite running back has recently ruptured an Achilles.

The LER article  itself repeatedly notes that there’s a huge variety of therapies, rehab schedules, and outcomes, and no set-in-stone way to quickly return to full speed. After sweeping generalizations in the beginning, by the end it all but shrugs its shoulders and goes “Eh, who knows? I guess it depends.” If it depends, then Mikel Leshoure has every possible indicator pointing to success: youth, a light previous workload, no prior Achilles pain, and a long track record of determination to succeed. This is a logical double-edged sword: perhaps Leshoure’s rare combination of size, speed, and agility has already doomed his tendons, just as Aaron Gibson’s shoulder joints could never quite handle the torque their muscles were generating. But right now, the “facts” being used to eulogize Mikel Leshoure’s career simply don’t stand up to examination.

Grieve for the loss of his contributions this season. Grieve for the pain he and his mother must feel as his dream is deferred. But don’t grieve for Mikel Leshoure’s career before it’s begun, and don’t you dare write him off.

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