On Thursday, the Lions held an OTA (just for veterans, since rookies couldn't yet report). I love these things, partly because of the stories, the rumors, and the hype that comes trickling out. There is actual football happening in Allen Park, and every tidbit that makes it to the public--no matter how insigificant--will be pounced upon, hoarded, and nibbled upon for weeks by the information-starved Lions fans. So far, there have only been a few tasty morsels that have leaked out. Of them, I'm most intrigued by this one, from Calos Monarrez at the Freep:
"The Lions finished off a spirited practice session at Allen Park with Drew Stanton throwing a touchdown pass to tight end Will Heller that elicited hoots and hollers from players — and a nod from coach Jim Schwartz."
We're not told about the nature of this play--the formation, the personnel package, the down-and-distance--nor of any of the plays before or after it. However, given that the target was Will Heller--the block-first TE acquired in free agency--I'm willing to bet this was in short yardage drills, or possibly at the end of a drive. It's not a SportsCenter moment, but it brings up a point I've been meaning to make for quite some time: Drew Stanton's a gamer. There are some athletes that look fantastic in practice, but never seem to bring it in games. Most reading this blog will remember Matt Millen famously referring to an unnamed Lion as a "devout coward"--a player who looks like a legit impact player all week, but disappears on Sunday (PFT, back in the day, reported that it was WR Scotty Anderson). But Drew Stanton? Drew's the other way around. It seems as though every year, we hear reports of Drew having some rough throws in pracice, having difficulty throwing a spiral, or still needing a lot of polish. However, the tiny scraps of pre- and regular-season action he's seen have been superlative. This meshes with career at Michigan State, where he was often the only player going out there and giving it his all. I wonder--emphasis on wonder--if Drew has to be in a competitive situation in order to perform like he's capable of performing. Though he's rarely a standout in shorts-and-T-shirt work, Drew always brings it when he's given the ball and told to go make a play. The problem is that Drew's almost never been given the ball--especially not when the lights are on and the ammo is live. On Thursday, I hope he had one of those moments: eleven on eleven, practicing short-yardage, the offense and defense jawing at each other, the last play of a long practice session--did it bring out the Drew we saw at MSU? Did the playmaking instincts kick in, and guide him to find the open man for the score? All we really know is that that there was a lot of hooting and hollering, and the coaches liked what they saw. Maybe it was a weight placed on the "Drew is our #3 Quarterback" side of the scale. Maybe the decision's already been made one way or the other. At the very least, it didn't hurt. Again, this is all extrapolated from one little quote about one little play in a veterans-only OTA months before the season starts--but that's the magic of this time of year: trying to snare wisps of hints of rumors of football out of the ether, and weave them into something we can wrap around ourselves until autumn. Read more...
Here is what you need to know about Penn State WR Derrick Williams. To me, that Rivals profile is the most intriguing, damning, and promising thing about the Lions' latter third-round draft pick. Coming out of high school, Derrick Williams was ranked by Rivals as the #1 overall recruit in the country . . . as an "ATH", or athlete. This designation is typically used when an astonishing athlete is utilized all over the field in high school, and so doesn't have a pure position--typically when a kid plays QB in high school to terrorize defenses, but doesn't project as a D-I signal caller. At Eleanor Roosevelt High, Williams played at least a little bit of basically every offensive skill position, as well as some cornerback. At an eyelash under six feet, running a mindblowing 4.37 40-yard dash at a Nike camp before his junior year in high school, there was no doubt that Williams had all the physical tools to dominate the college game, no matter what college he chose to attend.
Unsurprisingly, there was something of a to-do surrounding Williams' recruitment and committment. Penn State? At the nadir of the recent Paterno era; after four losing seasons in five years? The #1 overall recruit in the country, a phenomenal spread option quarterback prospect, and a multi-talented athlete? Exactly the kind of kid that Paterno "couldn't" or "wouldn't" recruit? Penn State?
Yes. Williams' father, Dwight, explained:
"This is a decision we're going to make, and it's not just about football," Dwight Williams said. "We feel like there's a strong commitment there, not only for athletes and their athletic ability, but there's a commitment for people to be successful in life. People can laugh or do whatever they want, but this is our decision."
The decision thus made, Derrick Williams went to Penn State (over Florida, Texas, et. al.), and immediately made an impact. With 22 receptions for 289 yards and a score, and 22 carries for 105 yards and three TDs, Williams's pure physical talent made him a contributor. A broken arm suffered against Michigan cut his debut season short, but there were high expectations for the remainder of his seasons at Penn State.
Unfortunately, he never quite lived up to them. Over the next three seasons, Derrick Williams played in every single game, and started all but one--and continued to produce largely at the same rate. His sophomore year, he hauled in 40 catches for 440 yards and 1 TD, while carrying 36 times for 145 yards and another score. His junior year, the recieving saw an uptick: 55 catches for 529 yards and three scores--but the rushing fell off; just 16 carries for 101 yards and one score. In his senior year, he really did well on the ground, getting 43 carries for 243 yards and three touchdowns--but the recieving cooled off again, to 44 catches for 485 and 4 TDs.
Now, there are some very encouraging trends there; the touches and yards went generally up from year to year, and the TDs went WAY up his senior year. Also, none of these stats include his return yardage or touchdowns, which were significant (115 punt returns for 721 and 3 TDs, 50 kick returns for 1,115 yards and 2 TD). But really, the stats alone show how Williams was used: as a "slash" type weapon; a player who's great with the ball in space, but not necessarily great at just getting it done as a position player. That role doesn't particularly translate well in the NFL. Devin Hester, Reggie Bush, Peter Warrick . . . these players have tried to make hay in the margins in the NFL, trying to translate great open-field ability into productive north-south offensive play. They've all been variably successful for varying periods. In my opinion, Derrick Williams' production in college points to a low ceiling for him in the NFL; he'll be never be an elite wideout like his 6'-0", 194#, 4.40 speed* would suggest.
The good news in all this? The Lions have no expectations that Derrick Williams will develop into an elite wideout. They don't particularly care that he does not boast amazing hands, nor incredible strength, nor surgically precise routes. He's an athlete, a playmaker, and a gamebreaking return man--and that's exactly what they want him to be. The question isn't whether he can overcome his lack of production as a college WR to become an excellent pro WR--the question is, can he be exactly what he was in college, in the pros? The answer, as always, is tough to divine. Quoth the Grandmaster:
“We need a returner. My philosophy on special teams is not to be safe and to find a guy that can catch the ball and fair catch it. We’re going to try to get some explosiveness, try to score. So a guy like Derrick Williams brought great value there.”
Issue #1 is his speed. Tremendously fast for a high school player, it appears as though Williams got no faster in six years. It's possible that the Nike camp time was somewhat inflated (er, deflated?), but from the summer before your junior year of high school and the spring after your senior year of college, you typically grow, strengthen, and mature physically. To show zero improvement whatsoever is a little odd. *By the way, to clear up some confusion, Williams cut a horrid 4.58 at the combine, then (rather lamely, I thought at the time) blamed it on a case of the flu. However, he proved me--and the doubters--wrong by cutting a 4.37 and 4.41 at PSU's Pro Day. Moreover, the straight-line track speed doesn't necessarily translate to pad-laden in-game speed. For proof, I offer the one YouTube highlight reel:
We saw a lot of very very positive things on that highlight reel. Williams displays great vision, burst, and instincts. He shows a knack for finding daylight, setting up his blockers, and hitting a seam. There's a wonderful quality he displays of running north-south unless he has to make a move, and then making just enough of a move to get back to running north-south. That's an absolutely vital skill in a return man, and one that you don't often see in college.
Unfortunately there are two things we didn't see him display on that tape: great hands, and elite speed. That might sound a little odd, as he just clearly ran past a lot of defenders--but if you watch carefully, you'll see he's not covering ground at a breathtaking rate. Skip to the 0:58 mark and watch carefully. As the play progresses, note his progress as compared to the other white helmets. After he hits the first pile, you'll note that he doesn't gain much ground on the players around him, even after he's broken into the open field. Once the way is clear, he should hit another gear and streak to the house--but instead, he flies in formation with the tight ends and linebackers assigned to block for him. Now of course, this doesn't mean that he's not faster than those guys, it just means that his shorts-and-t-shirt speed doesn't always translate to the field. It should go without saying that the overall speed of the NFL blows away the college game . . . can he even be effective as a returner without that top gear?
Actually, deep speed might be the single most overrated attribute of pro prospects. Especially as regards returners--there's a reason why "kick return" was listed as a separate ability on Madden for years. Return ability isn't a value that can be derived from knowing a player's "speed" and "agility" ratings; it's something else entirely. It's vision, it's instincts, it's an awareness of lanes and holes and angles. Even without true home run speed, I'm pretty confident that Derrick Williams can step right in and be a very good NFL return man, maybe even a great one. Most Lions fans over the age of 25 or so still light a candle every night for legendary returner Mel Gray, whose moves were electrifying, return averages through the roof, and return TD numbers pedestrian. Just because Mel rarely took kicks or punts all the wayto the house, didn't mean that he wasn't outstanding--nor did it invalidate the fact that he was an enormous asset to the Lions while he played. Field position is extremely important, especially for a young offense struggling with consistency and third-down conversions.
In fact, let's look at that for a minute. If you look at the 2008 numbers, the Lions were the 23rd-ranked team in kick return yardage, with 21.8. The #1 team, the Titans, averaged 25.4. This might not sound like a lot, but the Lions were kicked to an NFL-high 83 times; an increase of 3.6 yards per kick return translates to 298.8 yards! If we do the same for punt returns, the Lions were ranked 24th with an 8.0 yards-per average. The #1 team, the Bills, averaged 15.5. The Lions didn't exactly force many punts, but even with just 21 returns, that would be 157.5 yards' difference. Now, don't get too excited over this number, because kick and punt returns are different disciplines, and there are a lot of factors other than "Madden KR Rating" that go into this . . . but that's a difference of 456.3 yards. The Lions left over four entire football fields' worth of field position on the table, just by having a below-average return unit instead of a great one.
I would be very curious to see the percentage of 2008 Lions drives that contained more than three third-down conversions. Further, I'd be willing to bet that the number of Lions drives that contained more than four first-down conversions could be enumerated with a single digit. Just think about Jason Hanson's incredible season last year, where he hit 8 of 8 50-plus yard field goals. How many of those 456.3 yards would be needed to scoot how many failed drives to within his prodigious range? How many of those 456.3 yards would be needed to make how many field goals touchdowns? How many of those 456.3 yards would be needed to keep the other team's offense off the field for one or two more crucial minutes? How many of those 456.3 yards would translate into how many wins on an 0-16 team? Food for thought . . .
Derrick Williams might or might not be a great return man. What about being a wide reciever? It's absolutely indisputable that the Lions need a true slot wideout. With Mike Furrey off to the Browns, and Shaun McDonald joining the Steelers, the Lions have signed a slew of warm bodies. They're all going to audition for the role of Wes Welker: the quick, opportunistic playmaker working in the space created by the elite deep threat working the deep outside routes. Derrick Williams has the exact frame and toolset to absolutely explode in this role. However, his hands and route-running will hold him back. He does not appear to be a natural pass-catcher--and his role at Penn State backs that up. When you are a 6'-0", 194-pound, 4.40 wideout who was the #1 overall high school prospect in the nation, and you are in your senior year at a marquee school, and they're still using you primarily on screens, draws, reverses, and kick returns . . . there must be some pretty big holes in your game. Then again, several sources I've read have speculated that his toolset is better suited to the pro game. That his "slash" nature isn't his nature at all--it's due to his college coaches trying to maximize what they got out of his talents while he was there--not maximize his ability to play the wide reciever position. It's entirely possible that with NFL coaches (Scott Linehan, Shawn Jefferson) focussing him in on being the best slot reciever he can be, he can in fact be a great slot reciever.
However, with early word out of rookie minicamp being that he really struggled to catch the ball, I'm guessing not. Of all the picks I've reviewed so far, this is the one I'm most disappointed with. I absolutely think that this is a position of need--in fact, in one mock draft I did, I selected UNC WR/KR Brandon Tate with that 3.18 pick; a player with a practically identical skill set and resume. In real life, Tate went with the very next pick, the 3.19, to the New England Patriots. Soon enough, history will judge who's better at talent scouting: the Lions' front office, or me and Bill Belicheck.
It just occurred to me that I'm way overdue in linking you folks to the latest installment of The Lions Congregation! The good Reverend is taking a few weeks' sabbatical--I don't blame him--so his parishioners tried to send him off on a high note. As added incentive, Big Al from the always-entertaining The Wayne Fontes Experience has had the scales fall from his eyes; he'll be sharing his testimony with the rest of the most noteworthy Lions scribes (and me) every week from now on. Topics discussed by the newly-expanded flock:
1) Are there any undrafted rookies that you expect to be on the team this season?
2) If you can pick one remaining free agent on the market for the Lions to sign, who is it?
3) What retired Lion (if any) deserves Hall of Fame consideration?
I'm going to beg a bit of forgiveness on this week's answers; I was emailing from my BlackBerry, so my answers were slow in creation--and looked a lot better on the smaller screen! Mea culpa; the rest of the roundtable happily picked up the slack.
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