Watchtower Review: Lions at Cowboys

Last week I correctly predicted a lot of things about the NFL. I correctly picked the winner of 14 of last week’s 16 NFL games, including the exact score of the SF – Philly game. In the Watchtower, I also correctly predicted the winner . . . but that’s about all I got right.

The Cowboys have no systemic advantage over the Lions, so I project them to meet expectations, scoring 17-20 points. If last year’s pattern holds, they will throw for 6.75-7.50 YpA, well below season averages, and run for 3.75-4.0 YpC, well above season averages. I have medium confidence in this projection.

Of course, the Cowboys scored 30 points. Here’s where it gets interesting, though: They threw for 7.04 YpA and ran for 4.19 YpC—almost exactly in line with my expectations. The Cowboys moved the ball against the Lions defense just as well as I thought, but scored way more points. Why?

Willie Young got one sack on the last drive--that's it. The Lions committed 4 defensive penalties, 3 by Corey Williams and 1 by Ndamukong Suh. One gave the Cowboys a free first down on 2nd-and-five, and the Dez Bryant TD came three downs later. One made a 3rd-and-10 into a 3rd-and-5, which was converted—ultimately leading to a Cowboys field goal. The third and fourth were on the Cowboys’ final scoring drive, allowing the field goal that made it 30-17. That last one was Suh’s disputed roughing-the-passer penalty on a failed 3rd-and-3 that would have stopped that drive.

As I’ve said before, the Lions are built to jump to an early lead, then turn up the defensive heat as teams play catch-up against tem. The offense hung the defense out to dry time after time after time—and only because the back seven took the game into their own hands was the victory delivered.

The Lions shouldn’t be winning games because the defense is dragging the offense back into the game kicking and screaming; the offense should be dominating from the jump. This has to get better.

We’re left to conclude that Scott Linehan’s balanced offense has a systemic passing advantage against Rob Ryan’s hyperaggressive 3-4 defense. Linehan’s offenses pass much better than expectations, and score much better than expectations, when facing a Rob Ryan defense. Therefore, I project the Lions offense to outpeform expectations, especially through the air, scoring 33-35 points. I have medium-to-high confidence in this projection.

Whoops. The Lions’ offense scored just 20 points. I apparently forgot to project per-play running and passing effectiveness, but believe me when I say 5.58 YpA is way below expectations. The Lions had been averaging 8.45 YpA coming into the game, and I was projecting a systemic pass advantage. The Cowboys had been allowing 6.48 YpA coming into the game, which is a little on the stingy, but the Lions’ passing attack should have been much more effective than it was, even without an advantage.

The run game bounced back after last week’s awful performance, averaging a tepid-but-acceptable 3.71 YpC. The Cowboys had been excellent against the run, allowing just 2.97 YpC, so that’s actually an excellent performance. Between the offensive line holding the #1 pass rush in the NFL to no sacks, and the running game producing as-usual against a stout run D, the offensive line really redeemed themselves against Dallas.

I believe this game is critical to the outcome of the Lions’ season. The Lions will be a very tough out at home, but have a vicious last three games of their schedule. To get a road win on this big of a stage would be huge, and it makes me gunshy that the data leads my proverbial horse to water. Yet, what have I to do but drink? The most likely outcome of the game is a 34-20 Lions win.

Got the score wrong, but got the conclusion right: no matter how you slice it, this Lions win has enormous implications for the rest of the season.

Read more...

Three Cups Deep: Lions at Cowboys

Let me fill my third cup of coffee . . . ahh. Smell that? It’s Detroit Lion Supremo Victory Blend. The heat is radiating right through the thin ceramic. I hold it not by the handle, but with both hands wrapped around the outside. I bring it to my lips and bow my head. With the quiet reverence of prayer, I take a long, slow, deep sip.

The steam fills my nose as the hot liquid drains down my throat, warming my empty belly. After an exhilarating, exhausting day of excitement, anticipation, shock, dread, hope, and jubilation, I need all the rejuvenating strength of this coffee, of this Lions win, to get me going again.

The Lions are 4-0, on an NFL-best eight-game win streak, a franchise-best five-game road win streak, and are tied with the Packers atop the NFC North—and the NFL entire.

I’m elated by the tenacity the Lions have displayed in coming back from 20+ points down in consecutive games—the first time that’s ever been done, according to Elias Sports Bureau. I’m thrilled that they’ve managed to eke out wins on the road when they aren’t playing well. I’m dazzled by the performance of the Lions’ defense—who, truth be told, has been bailing out Stafford and the high-flying receiver corps all season.

I’m stoked that the Lions are 4-0 with next week’s Monday Night Football kicking off a long stretch of home games and winnable road games. Pulling out a victory in Jerryworld set the Lions up very, very, very well for the postseason.

On the Fireside Chat last night I told you to “savor this moment in time,” to drink in the national praise and hold the sweet taste of 4-0 on your tongue for as long as you can. I believe greater things are in store for the Lions this year, but this is a wonderfully special, wholly unique time to be a Lions fan. It can get better, but not much.

As in coffee, there’s bitterness in this cup of Lions victory. The Lions have not yet played a full sixty minutes of their best football. I’m the first to say this is the Great Lie of football fandom: that “Fans of That Other Team never have to deal with this!” No matter how good the team, how perennially successful the franchise, fans are always left with something to gripe about. However, the Lions can not keep spotting opponents the first half of football; it will catch up with them sooner rather than later. As Commenter Matt said, “While the Lions have ‘finishing’ down cold, now they have to learn how to ‘start’.”

This is where the TV camera angle leaves us cold: we couldn’t see where the breakdown in the Lions’ passing offense was. Were the Cowboys back seven just that good in coverage? Were the Lions receivers just failing to get open? Was Scott Linehan schooled by Rex Ryan in the gameplan department? Was Matthew Stafford just a beat slow on getting rid of the ball? Without the coaching-film “All 22” angle, it’s difficult to tell.

The upshot is, Stafford got the ball where it needed to go when it needed to go there most, and the defense made plays when it needed to make plays the most. People will tell you “the Lions didn’t come back, Tony Romo brought the Lions back” but that's nonsense.

Look at Chris Houston’s pick-six: he outfought Laurent Robinson for the well-thrown pass, intercepted it one-handed, put on a beautiful spin move and—despite the entire Cowboys team having the angle on him, he raced past them all to the end zone. Go set your Juggs machine on "Tony Romo" and try to catch its passes one-handed while somebody a few inches taller than you pushes you in the chest. You'll be there all day.

Yes, the defense bailed the Lions’ offense out—but they’ll return to Ford Field next Monday, where they have yet to play anything less than dominant, lights-out football this pre- and regular season. They’ll welcome the 2-2 Bears into their den, where us Lions fans will be rocking, rolling, and ready to help lift the Lions to 5-0.

Read more...

Fireside Chat Week 4: Lions at Cowboys

It’s incredible. It's inexplicable. It’s ridiculous. It’s ANOTHER LIONS WIN.

If you dig what you hear, don’t forget you can always subscribe via iTunes for free!

Read more...