Completely Useless Waste of Time: 2012 Edition

Ahh, the magic of the Completely Useless Waste of Time. The CUWoT, for the uninitiated, is my pet name for the masturbatory practice of predicting YOUR FAVORITE TEAM’S RECORD right after the NFL releases its schedule for the year. Last night, at 7:00 EDT, the NFL released its 2012 schedule.

The Lions have 5 games on national television: Thanksgiving against the Texans, two Sunday Night Football games at San Francisco and at Green Bay, a Saturday night game hosting the Falcons, and a Monday Night Football game at Chicago. This is news.

What is not news is everyone going through the schedule, presuming the Lions to be slightly better than last year, then going through the schedule and picking the Lions to lose to every team perceived to be as good or better than whatever "slightly better than last year" means for the Lions. That, my friends, is a completely useless waste of time.

For starters, unlike previous years, the draft hasn’t even happened yet. All 32 teams are going to fill major roster needs—or not—in a week. To pretend we know the relative strengths of these teams in the spring is goofy enough; to pretend we know the relative strengths of these teams when we don’t even know their starting lineups is criminally insane.

But, "slightly better than last year" means 11-5, and so everybody on the planet is picking 11-5. Last season, everyone was picking between seven and nine wins for the Lions, but I stated that the Lions would make the playoffs as fact on May 27th. Because, duh:

Nick Fairley doesn’t need to be a stud. The Lions don’t need to sign Nnamdi Asomugha, or add more backup tackles. The Bears don’t need to implode (though they will), and the Vikings won’t need to keep backsliding (though they will). The Lions don’t need to “learn how to finish,” they just need Matthew Stafford healthy for 16 games. If they get that, the Lions will win ten of those games, at least—and they’ll make the playoffs.

. . . not to put too fine a point on it, but that was as arrogantly definitive of a paragraph as I’ve written—and that’s saying something—and I batted 1.000.

Don’t forget, the NFL is all about variance. As I wrote about in “Detroit Lions, NFL, and Luck,” the correlation between actual team goodness and wins is about 75%. Per point differential and strength of schedule, the Lions were almost spookily in sync with how good they “really” were in 2011. The 2011 Lions expected W-L, based on point differential, was 9.9-6.1. That the record shook out exactly as I predicted was more or less sheer luck. If the Lions are slightly better in 2012 than they were in 2011, variance alone dictates they could finish anywhere from 8-8 to 15-1.

Don't believe me?

In 2010, the Green Bay Packers scored 24.2 points per game, 10th-best in the NFL. They allowed 15.0 points per game, 2nd-best in the NFL. They outscored opponents by 9.2 points per game, 2nd-best in the NFL. With their point differential, they should have won 12.1 games and lost 3.9. They actually went 10-6, snuck into the playoffs as a six seed, and won the Super Bowl.

In 2011, the Packers scored 35.0 points per game, best in the NFL, but allowed 22.4; 19th. Their differential was again second-best at 12.6 points per game, and their expected W-L was 11.9-4.1. They went 15-1, secured a bye, and promptly lost to the Giants (9-7, expected 7.9-8.1).

This method of calculating expected wins, often called Pythagorean wins, indicates something I'd suspected from the eyeball test: the Packers were slightly “worse” in 2012 than 2011, yet made a dramatic five-game jump in the win column.

In that very Pro Football Reference blog post, they note Pythagorean wins correlate much more strongly to next season’s wins than the season they describe—and since 1978, teams which finish 10-6 with between 9.5 and 10.5 Pythagorean wins (like the 2011 Lions), average 9.3 wins in the following season (like this upcoming season).

Food for thought.

What is my point? I have two left to make: penultimately, going through the schedule and picking wins and losses based on “last year’s record + talent additions – talent subtractions” is a completely useless waste of time, but that’s okay when there’s nothing else going on. Doing it immediately before the draft is madness. Lunacy. I refuse to participate.

I called the Lions going 10-6 last season because I thought they were an above-average team sure to make the playoffs, but no more . . . the scoreboard precisely reflected that level of performance. I wouldn’t have predicted a 5-0 start, and I wouldn’t have predicted a miserable October, but in the end the Lions were who I thought they were.

This year, the Lions will be better. If Stafford and Johnson are healthy for 16 games again, the Lions’ on-field performance will be better in 2012 than 2011, even if the draft yields no immediate starters. I base this entirely on the idea that the development of the younger players will have a greater positive impact than the depreciation of the older players’ negative impact.

How many regular season wins will that “slightly better than last year” performance? Well, between you, me, and Pythagoras it doesn’t really matter anymore. The Lions are a playoff team now. The question is, how many playoff games will they win?

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CUWoT, Mlive.com Highlight Reel Edition

Last season, I published a two-parter called “Completely Useless Waste of Time”.  I broke down each Lions opponent on the schedule, and projected the Lions’ wins and losses.  I called the exercise a completely useless waste of time, because the NFL is so volatile from year to year, there’s really no point in trying to project outcomes.  What you end up doing is projecting how a team’s offseason changes would make them better or worse in the previous season . . . not useful, or worthwhile.
I said in the conclusion of that piece:

The funny thing, to me, is that we can’t really know how the Lions will play until we see them on the field. In fact, we can’t really know how any team will play, in any year, until we see them on the field. In the modern NFL, turnover is so high—both on rosters and coaching staffs—and the Xs-and-Os arms race is almost inconceivably fast. New schemes and plans that work incredibly well Week 1 are neutralized by Week 16. Players that come out of nowhere to surprise opponents are scouted, mapped, and game-planned out of existence in weeks (see Gado, Samkon). You can’t possibly look at a team’s roster and record, add what got added, subtract what got subtracted, and extrapolate a conclusion; it just doesn’t work that way—and the 2007 and 2008 Lions are indelible proof of that.
Football teams are incredibly complex systems. They’re full of moving parts, developing young players, declining veterans, deep emotional connections, public and private strife, inches and yards, breaks and bounces, injuries, turnovers, and lucky breaks. They’re coaches sleeping at their desks, and coaches hitting the golf course at noon. They’re a superior training staff, or a staph-infected trainer’s room. There are a hundred thousand million tiny variables that factor into the on-field performance of an NFL club. Every single season, each NFL club is a new thing, a new potion, a new mix of hundred different reactive ingredients; they must be evaluated on a case-by-case, year-by-year basis. Moreover, there’s a reason they say “That’s why they play the games”. There’s a reason they say "On any given Sunday . . .", the better team doesn’t always win. You can’t say right now whether the Lions will win or lose against any other team, because you don’t know how good the Lions are, and you don’t know how good the other teams are, and you have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen when helmets and pads clash between them.

But . . . what else are we supposed to do? With free agency, the draft, and OTAs all in the history books, or nearly so, we have 32 teams with set roster and schedules, and nothing at all to talk about until minicamps.  Indeed, even The Lions Congregation dwelt upon the subject of possible wins and losses this week.  Well, I figured, since we’re all killing time, why not waste some time?
To that end, I’ve begun a series of opponent scouting reports over at Mlive.com’s Highlight Reel blog.  More than the couple-of-paragraph treatment I gave the opponents last time, but less than a full-on Watchtower, these weekly pieces will be breaking down the 13 teams on the Lions’ schedule, pointing out the critical pieces of these teams, and how they interact with the Lions’.  I’m not doing predictions, but I’m laying down dots and offering you, the reader, a crayon to connect them with.

Mlive.com's Highlight Reel – Keeping an Eye on the NFC North

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,chicago bears,mlive.com,highlight reel

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completely useless waste of time, part II

When last we left our completely useless waste of time, the Lions had struggled to the Week 7 bye, upsetting only Minnesota in the home opener.  At 1-5, the Lions will be well out of playoff contention.  If, in a currently-unlikely scenario, Duante Culpepper had been starting (in my previous post, I assumed Stafford started from day one), it’s a near-certainty that he will be relegated to the bench at this point.  Ford Field might again be facing blackouts, depending on how competitive the Lions have looked throughout this stretch.  Most “fans” who had hopped “off” the bandwagon, then hopped back on when the Lions beat Minnesota, will probably hop back off again. Fortunately, things look a little better from here on out.

Week 8: vs. St. Louis

For the first time, the Lions face a team also coming off a bottom-scraping year.  The Rams, then under Lions OC Scott Linehan, seemed to have a few pieces in place, but couldn’t reverse the awful momentum of 2007’s crushing disappointment.  Things unraveled so quickly that they were barely ever raveled.  After just four games, Linehan was unemployed, and the Rams were on their way to a 2-14 finish.  Taking over is the man I christened “Candidate 1A” during the Lions’ coaching search, former Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo.

The last significant pieces of the Greatest Show on Turf, WR Torry Holt and OT Orlando Pace, are gone.  QB Marc Bulger, the last of the Martz quarterback projects, probably would have been, too, were there fewer holes elsewhere.  Going into the draft, OT Alex Barron was the only OT on the roster—and he’s in a contract year.  When the Lions passed on drafting Baylor OT Jason Smith, the Rams breathed a sigh of relief, and then jumped on him.  The rookie—and his predecessor, the raw and inconsistent Barron--will see a lot of heat from both the Lions’ DEs and the OLBs behind them, whichever sides they each end up playing.  RB Steven Jackson—with former Ravens C Jason Brown and former Saints FB Mike Karney blocking up the middle--will keep the Rams chugging slowly forward.

However, without a single starting-caliber wideout amongst the 17—yes, seventeen-- currently on the roster, I don’t see the Rams mustering much of an offensive attack.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams will expect DE Chris Long—a perfect fit for Spag’s defense--and rookie MLB James Laurenitis, to lead a youth movement.  In reality, I expect the Lions’ balanced attack to give the Rams fits, especially through the air—the Rams have absolutely no answer for Megatron, and whichever veteran ends up in the slot may get to test 3rd-round rookie CB Bradley Fletcher.

W, 35-14

Week 9: at Seattle

There might not be a team harder to project for 2009 than the Seattle Seahawks.  On one hand, Pro Bowler Matt Hasselbeck will—for the first time in ages—have his two best receivers, Deion Branch and Nate Burleson, 100% healthy, as well as free agent signee T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Their leading yardage rusher (Julius Jones) and leading rushing TD scorer (T.J. Duckett) return, and new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has seen his quarterback go to the Pro Bowl 10 of the 14 years he’s been coaching offense in the NFL.  After drafting OLB Aaron Curry #4 overall, franchising and returning OLB Leroy Hill, and reeling CB Ken Lucas back from Carolina, the defense should be improved, as well.

On the other hand, they went 4-12 last season, head coach Mike Holmgren has “retired”, handing over the job to former Falcons HC Jim Mora, Jr.. Hasselbeck will be starting without the coach that drafted and groomed him for the first time, ever—and led the Seahawks to the third-worst passing yardage  in the NFL last season. The Seahawks’ second-leading rusher (and it was 698 to 574), Maurice Morris, is now a Lion.  DT Rocky Bernard is gone has a free agent, and to replace him with Cory Redding, the ‘Hawks had to trade 5-time Pro Bowler Julian Peterson to the Lions—and blow the fourth overall pick on Aaron Curry to replace him when they could have filled other needs.

The ‘Hawks are coming off a 4-12 season, partly due to a injury-decimated WR corps; partly due to a seeming lame-duck malaise inspired by Holmgren’s pre-announced retirement.  Only time will tell, but these handpicked successions rarely go smoothly.  I think the Seahawks’ passing game is going to be much improved over last season, but Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett are probably not going to overwhelm as an RB tandem; Grady Jackson could have a big day eating their lunch.  The ‘Hawks defense has three great linebackers, not much else, and is switching schemes—sounds familiar, eh?

W, 28-21

Week 10: at Minnesota

We’re not sweeping the Vikes this year.

L, 14-24

Week 11: vs. Cleveland

There were two teams this season whose offseason moves made absolutely no sense to me whatsoever.  Two teams who had a young talent foundation in place, got impatient, made a coaching change—and then spent the entire rest of the offseason dismantling or alienating that young talent foundation.  One is the Broncos, of course . . . the other is the Browns.

After firing former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, the Browns hired former Patriots defensive coordinator Eric Mangini to replace him.  They also replaced their top personnel man, former Ravens exec Phil Savage, with former Ravens exec George Kokinis.  The Browns then traded away elite TE Kellen Winslow, and consistently and heavily pursued Jay Cutler—despite having two good veterans even younger than Cutler in Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson.  Mangini has rubbed many the wrong way, allegedly snubbing DT Shaun Rogers—twice—and painting over a mural of hallowed Browns legends.  WR Donte Stallworth is suspended indefinitely for his DUI manslaughter case--and the other wideout, Braylon Edwards, was the subject of months of trade speculation.

What few pieces the 2008 Browns had in place are now either gone or disgruntled; it’s difficult to see them improving on last year's 4-12 record, especially in the AFC North. Theoretically, the defense shouldn’t have to deal with much transition, as Mangini should have no problem taking over Crennel’s Patriots-style 3-4.  However, the Browns really weren’t running that defense effectively to begin with.  While Kevin Smith might not have a great day against a sure-to-be-motivated Big Baby, I think Stafford and Megatron will have a big day, and the Lions’ defense will come flying through the line wherever Browns’ LT Joe Thomas isn’t.

W, 27-14

Week 12: vs. Green Bay

With the momentum of winning 3 of 4, the Lions face the Packers at to Ford Field.  By my estimations, the Lions are now at 4-6, probably only 3 or 4 games behind the Pack with five left to play.  I still think that the Packers are going to be an offensive juggernaut, and I still think they’re going to have a tough transition to Capers' 3-4.  I handed us a loss at Lambeau—I don’t think we win a shootout on the road--but I’m going to hand us a win here.  Stafford should be settling into a groove, and win after win is building his confidence at this point.

W, 30-27

Week 13: at Cincinnati

Call me crazy, but I think this is the year that the Bengals get back on track.  Chad Ochocinco’s rededicated himself—as has the returned Chris Henry.  Carson Palmer should be healthy and ready to go, and the Bengals have now added beastly former USC LB Rey Maualuga to go with beastly former USC LB Keith Rivers.  Raw, spectacular rookie talents OT Andre Smith and DE Michael Johnson could provide the pass protection and pass rush that the Bengals sorely lacked last year.  Honestly, it’s reminding me of the magical 2004 and 2005 seasons, where the Bengals really took everybody by surprise.

Now, I don’t buy into either Smith or Johnson as perennial Pro Bowlers, and there’s got to be a reason Maualuga fell well into the second round.  However, for just this season, I think Marvin Lewis could pull one last rabbit out of his hat.

The Lions are going to have a hard time covering Ochocinco, Henry, and free agent acquisition Laveranues Coles.  Okay, let me rephrase: the Lions will be completely incapable of covering Ochocinco, Henry, and Coles—and Palmer has more than enough talent to take full advantage. Lest you think the Bengals will be one-dimensional, RB Cedric Benson finally showed everyone he could be the kind of back he was drafted to be.  Besides the rookies, former Cowboys DT Tank Johnson and S Roy Williams should bring the Bengals presence up the middle they sorely lacked last season.  Here, I think, the “"Hey, we’re almost at .500!!” bubble bursts.

L, 10-35

Week 14: at Baltimore

We are not beating the Ravens on the road.  Sorry, folks.

L, 17-24

Week 15: vs. Arizona

Coming off of a Super Bowl appearance—and loss—the Cardinals appear absolutely primed for the classic Super Bowl Hangover.  OC Todd Haley was picked off to become the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.  DC Clancy Pendergast, in one of the odder turns of the offseason, was fired by the Cardinals after a fairly successful campaign.  Haley immediately snapped him up to be his DC in KC.  Now, OL coach Russ Grimm has been promoted to fill his spot—and Grimm has been a hot coordinator, and even head coach, candidate in the past--but Arizona nonetheless will have to deal with double coordinator change.  QB Kurt Warner is yet another year older, and disappointing “franchise” QB Matt Leinart will have yet another offseason to try to eclipse the old man.  Surprisingly successful rookie RB Tim Hightower then surprisingly hit the rookie wall, and veteran Edgerrin James has spent all offseason begging the Cardinals for a trade—and so has stud WR Anquan Boldin.

While you’d think the reigning NFC Champions would be an impossible foe for the Lions to slay, in reality the Cardinals franchise is kind of all over the place.  The Cards were a mediocre team in 2008 who “clicked” in an incredible way, slaughtering foes in the last couple weeks of the season, and playing great football all the way through the playoffs.  Due to all of the changes I outlined above—plus an underwhelming draft, their first-round pick only muddying the offensive backfield even further with RB Chris “Beanie” Wells—I actually think Arizona walks into Ford Field an underdog.

W, 21-14

Week 16: at San Francisco

There’s an individual who has this date circled on his calendar.  A big-mouthed, fleet-footed defensive back who’s just waiting for the Lions to come into his new house and stick it to them.  Unfortunately, Dre’ Bly is about a foot too short to cover Calvin Johnson.

The Niners’ interim-cum-new head coach Mike Singletary, might be a little rough around the edges, but he’s a tremendous man who’s well respected around the league for his work with the Ravens and the Niners, as LB coach and defensive coordinator, respectively.  His work with mega-stud MLB Patrick Willis certainly can’t be ignored, and he and his staff coaxing a creditable performance from QB Shaun Hill speaks bodes well, as well.  RB Frank Gore brings the kind of steady inside running game that the Lions will struggle to stop.  LT Joe Staley will be as excellent of a pass protector as the Lions’ DEs will face this season, too—if #10 overall pick WR Michael Crabtree makes an impact, the Niners could have a very good offense.  The defense, with big bodied Isaac Sopoaga up front, and LBs Willis and Takeo Spikes in the middle, were the 14th-best rushing defense last season, and 13th-best yardage defense overall.  With a full offseason under Singletary, the Niners hope that defense will firm up even more.

I still don’t buy the quarterbacks; fourth-round rookie Nate Davis might have more NFL potential than either Hill or former #1 overall pick Alex Smith, who’s allegedly “neck and neck” with Hill for the starting gig.  Gore has been on a steady decline, and RB Glen Coffee is another bruiser without burst.  I think the Niners’ offense will be stoppable for the Lions’ defense--but the Lions’ run game will be stoppable by the Niners’ defense, as well.  Whether or not the Lions will be able to pass over CBs Nate Clements and Dre Bly will be the key to victory.

W L, 14-10 (updated to reflect major gaffe*)

Week 17: vs. Chicago

The Lions take Ford Field at 6-10, squaring off against the 7-8 Bears.  Kevin Smith blows holes through the Bears’ Tampa 2, racking up 120 yards and 2 TDs.  Louis Delmas picks off Jay Cutler and takes it back to the house.  In the ultimate fourth-quarter insult to Rod Marinelli and the Bears, Ikaika Alama-Francis collapses the pocket on third down and brings down Jay Cutler to end the Bears’ final drive.  The Bears, through the magic of tiebreakers I don’t fully understand, finish last in the NFC North.  Jim Schwartz is Coach of the Year.  Sammie Hill eats a bear in celebration.  No, not an opposing player, an actual bear.

W, 31-17

*Thanks are due to the anonymous commenter who spotted my egregious arithmetic fail.  I accidentally had eight wins detailed here, instead of the 7 that I meant to.  I think the Lions will take 2 of 3 between Arizona, San Francisco, and Seattle--I gave the W to San Francisco and Patrick Willis, because he frightens me.

So, we have the Lions finishing at 7-9, wildly outstripping the (minimal) expectations set for them, and building incredible momentum towards next season.  It’d be a magnificent turnaround.  While perhaps not as magnificent as the Dolphins’ or Falcons’ 2008 turnarounds, the jury remains out on whether those two teams stay amongst the league’s best.  The Lions, however, will have, yes, poured the foundation for a consistently successful team.  With a mix of very young talent placed for the long run, and very experienced—fine, old—talent in place for now, the Lions will at least resemble a legitimate football team.

Now, will they really win seven games, the year after the only 0-16 season in the history of the NFL?  Well . . . is it that incredible?  They won seven games in 2007, with largely the same roster as they won zero games with in 2008.  There’s no doubt that the Lions are significantly improved in talent, size, and experience across the board.  It’s inarguable fact that the coaching staff is going from one of the least-qualified, least-well-prepared, and most out-of-their-depth in the league, to a brilliant young HC with two extremely experienced and successful NFL coordinators—who, crucially, believe 100% in the new head man and his approach.

The funny thing, to me, is that we can’t really know how the Lions will play until we see them on the field.  In fact, we can’t really know how any team will play, in any year, until we see them on the field.  In the modern NFL, turnover is so high—both on rosters and coaching staffs—and the Xs-and-Os arms race is almost inconceivably fast.  New schemes and plans that work incredibly well Week 1 are neutralized by Week 16.  Players that come out of nowhere to surprise opponents are scouted, mapped, and game-planned out of existence in weeks (see Gado, Samkon).  You can’t possibly look at a team’s roster and record, add what got added, subtract what got subtracted, and extrapolate a conclusion; it just doesn’t work that way—and the 2007 and 2008 Lions are indelible proof of that.

Football teams are incredibly complex systems.  They’re full of moving parts, developing young players, declining veterans, deep emotional connections, public and private strife, inches and yards, breaks and bounces, injuries, turnovers, and lucky breaks.  They’re coaches sleeping at their desks, and coaches hitting the golf course at noon.  They’re a superior training staff, or a staph-infected trainer’s room.  There are a hundred thousand million tiny variables that factor into the on-field performance of an NFL club.  Every single season, each NFL club is a new thing, a new potion, a new mix of hundred different reactive ingredients; they must be evaluated on a case-by-case, year-by-year basis.  Moreover, there’s a reason they say “That’s why they play the games”.  There’s a reason they say "On any given Sunday . . .", the better team doesn’t always win.  You can’t say right now whether the Lions will win or lose against any other team, because you don’t know how good the Lions are, and you don’t know how good the other teams are, and you have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen when helmets and pads clash between them.

So, wait--why did I just make you sit through 4,722 words?  Hey, I told you it was a completely useless waste of time!

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completely useless waste of time, part I

The complete and total lack of football activity this time of year—this is the off-est part of the offseason—is maddening.  No free agency, no contract situations, no draft prospects, no nothing.  Not only is nothing happening now, there’s nothing to anticipate either.  No rumors to monger, no tidbits to share, no quotes to dissect, absolutely nothing to uselessly speculate on.  The coaching staff?  In place.  The schemes?  Drawn up.  The roster?  Set, for the most part, for this season.  The schedule?  Posted online for the world to see.

Hmm . . . are you pondering what I’m pondering?

Week 1: at New Orleans

The season opener feels uncomfortably like ritual sacrifice.  The Lions have gone an absolutely appalling 8-50 on the road since the dawn of the Millen era, and—just like last year—they’re traveling into the Deep South to take on an offensive powerhouse of a team.  Last season, quarterback Drew Brees shredded NFL defenses for 5,069 yards and 34 touchdowns.  Completing 65 percent of his passes, and throwing only 17 interceptions, Brees elevated his usual effectiveness to historic levels, falling just 15 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single season passing record.  While WRs David Patten and Terrence Copper left via free agency, the Saints return Marques Colston and Robert Meachem, and managed to retain Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.  The Saints also took great steps to bolster their long-floundering secondary, drafting CB Malcom Jenkins with their first-round pick, and signing CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper, and S Pierson Prioleau.

This is a nightmare matchup for the Lions.  Their rebuilt secondary is one of the biggest concerns going into the season, and they’ll open the season in a snakepit against the most prolific passing offense in football.  Brees is too good, and has too many options, to be rattled by the Lions’ blitz.  The Saints’ biggest weakness, the secondary, figures to be much improved.  The only window of hope is, as usual, Megatron.  Jabari Greer and Randall Gay are solid NFL cornerbacks, but neither cracks 6 feet or 200 pounds.  The only corner they have who can match up physically is Jenkins, but this will be his first game in the NFL. 

A season-opening victory would be a huge, huge moment for the team and the fans.  It could provide the fuel for a run to respectability, much like last year’s shellacking by Atlanta unraveled everything.  Ultimately, though, the Lions will make it respectable--but I don’t see them winning. 

L, 21-34

Week 2: vs. Minnesota

The Lions will open their home schedule against the Super Bowl-bound Vikings.  They’ll be the Super Bowl-bound Vikings because they are always the Super Bowl-bound Vikings, every single year for the past fifteen years, no matter how many years they play about .500 football.  With the Lions boasting a new coach, new quarterback, new logo, new uniforms, and once again welcoming Brett Favre to Ford Field, the atmosphere for this game is going to be unbelievable.  If the Lions can get anything going in the first quarter, the crowd will lift them the rest of the way.

A win here couldn’t possibly be overhyped.  Breaking the losing streak would be like winning the Super Bowl.  If it happened in the first home game, it would mean a statewide celebration for days.  It would really, truly usher in a new era for the franchise.

Now, the Lions can’t run against the Williams Wall, because nobody can run against the Williams Wall.  The Lions can’t stop All Day, because nobody can stop All Day.  Jared Allen will eat Jeff Backus’s lunch.  Bernard Berrien and Percy Harvin are both way too fast for Anthony Henry.  Brett Favre is Brett Favre.

W, 17-14

Week 3: vs. Washington

Buoyed by the incredible thrill of winning their first game since December 23rd, 2007—The Day of Destiny for Washington, DC!—the Lions will host the Washington Redskins.  The Freemasons, Illuminati, numerology, and Mayan calendar aside, the Lions will take on Martin Mayhew’s old team for the first time since he ascended to the GM position.  Mayhew wasn’t much help the last time the Lions played the ‘Skins, though—Washington administered a 34-3 euthanization.  The Lions were completely dominated in every phase of the game by that Redskins team.  Now, both teams have changed coaches since then, but the Skins’ roster is superficially the same: QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, MLB London Fletcher, etc. 

However, the ‘Skins made some big waves this offseason.  They signed monster DT Albert Haynesworth to a vault-busting megacontract, and picked up OG help with OGs Jeremy Bridges and, to the Lions’ chagrin, Derrick Dockery.  They overhauled their special teams, picking up P Hunter Smith and K Shaun Suisham.  They also drafted OLB Brian Orakpo with their first-round pick.

The ‘Skins are a much better team than you might think—playing in one of the most brutal divisions in recent memory, they managed to win as many games as they lost last year, yet still finished last in the NFC East.  Undoubtedly improved on-paper, and with a rare season of continuity in the coaching staff benefitting both the coaches and the players, the Skins will be a tough test.  Still, Campbell and second-year head coach Jim Zorn are both feeling the pressure; the Redskins reportedly made offseason overtures both to former Broncos QB Jay Cutler—and his former coach, Mike Shanahan.

The Lions’ best hope will be to contain RB Clinton Portis.  The rift between him and Zorn has made national headlines, and while he says their working relationship is fine, there’s no doubt that Portis is no longer the apple of his coach’s eye, as was the case with Gibbs.  If Portis struggles out of the gate, the Skins may abandon the run—and if Kevin Smith can get around Albert Haynesworth--the Lions could end up controlling the clock.  However, I just went against on-paper reality to hand us a win over Minny; I can’t do it back-to-back.

L, 10-20

Week 4: at Chicago

The Bears ended up with what might have been the Lions’ biggest offseason prize: former Broncos QB Jay Cutler.  For the first time, practically ever, the Bears have a legitimate top-flite quarterback under center.   His arm has given teams fits, and combined with the excellent young running back Matt Forte, the Bears’ offense is probably going to brutalize the Lions’ defense, especially late in the game. 

Now, since the Bears traded away practically their entire draft to get Cutler, they didn’t add much youth to their roster.  With nearly no high picks available to shore up their offensive line, the Bears signed free agent OT Orlando Pace.  No,w Pace isn’t what he once was, but I have to believe he’s still better than many tackles in the NFL, at least for this season.  They also did a “free agency trade”, where former Bears OT John St. Clair signed with the Browns, and the Browns’ old OT, Kevin Shaffer, signed with the Bears.  Finally, they picked up OT Frank Omiyale, from Carolina.  On the defensive side of the ball, added another former Ram, OLB Pisa Tinoisamoa, and S Josh Bullocks—twin brother of Lion Daniel Bullocks—to replace the departed Mike Brown.

Matching them up, again, things look tough.  Cutler’s great at going deep to the outside, and I just don’t like the Lions corners in deep man coverage.  Then again, the Bears wideouts don’t scare anybody either—Marty Booker is gone, and the only WRs on the roster who caught a pass in the NFL last year are Devin Hester and Rashied Davis.  Hester is the #1 WR, though he has yet to prove he belongs anywhere on the field besides behind a return wedge.  If the Lions' corners can blanket the Bears' receivers, and the blitz can beat the Bears’ rotisseried veteran OTs, AND Forte doesn’t beat the Lions by himself, the Lions do have a chance.  Megatron is Megatron, of course, and the Lions’ increased bulk up front could give them an opportunity to control the ball. The Bears’ defense simply isn’t what it once was, and adding Tinoisamoa won’t address the Bears’ uninspired performances as of late.

On the other hand, I hear they have a hot new DL coach who can really whip his guys into shape.

L, 14-17

Week 5: vs. Pittsburgh

Yeah, this’ll leave a mark.

L, 12-42

Week 6: at Green Bay

The Packers are an interesting team.  As usual, GM Ted Thompson made no major moves in free agency—the Packers lost no one of significance, and added no one of significance (except perhaps C Duke Preston).  The Pack merely retained S Atari Bigby, then continued to build through the draft.  They selected DT B.J. Raji with the 9th overall pick, and followed that up with OLB Clay Matthews with the 26th pick.  These two picks will assist in the Pack’s transition to a 3-4 defense, in what is no doubt the biggest upheaval in Green Bay since . . . let me see . . . hmm, when was the last time the Pack faced a major transition?

Oh that’s right: after years of waiting for his rightful succession, QB Aaron Rodgers up and usurped Lord Favre’s throne.  Though Rodgers was mildly panned in 2008 for not carrying his team to more victories, those who watched the Pack closely saw that Rodgers looked like the real deal—it was the wet-tissue defense that let the Pack down, time after time.  Rodgers has been called the “human Juggs machine” by his recievers—and, oh yes, unlike the Bears, those recievers are really really good.  Between former Western Michigan standout Greg Jennings, and veteran stalwart Donald Driver, the Packers boast what might be the most underrated receiver combo in football.

If the Packers’ aging, depleted offensive line can hold off the Lions’ blitz, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Lions’ defense.  Multidimensional RB Ryan Grant looks to bounce back after a disappointing 2008, and Rodgers is sure to have a little more of that carry-his-team mojo after a full distraction-free offseason as the unquestioned starter.  The least known quantity on the field will be the Packers' defense, which has searched for an identity for a long time.  The Pack have rotated defensive coordinators what seems like annually for what seems like a decade, but their latest is a doozy.  Dom Capers, a brilliant defensive coach with a resume a mile long, has taken over the Packers’ defensive roster—largely remarkable for its aging cornerbacks, passle of decent young linebackers, and pass rusher extraordinaire Aaron Kampman--and plugged it into his famed zone blitzing 3-4 scheme.  Oddly, that type of defense is suddenly all the rage again, after his Steelers (as DC) and Panthers (as HC) made it trendy the first time around.  Aaron Kampman has been publicly terse—and, it’s rumored, privately furious—about the switch from 4-3 DE to 3-4 ROLB.

At this point in the season, it will be pretty obvious if the switch is working—and, if it is, the Lions’ offensive line is going to struggle to protect Matt Stafford.  If Raji is as good as advertised, the Lions’ offensive line is going to struggle to open holes for Kevin Smith.  On the balance, there is plenty of wiggle room for a Lions victory—but most of it involves the Packers failing, something they rarely do much of in Lambeau.

L, 20-28

That brings us to the bye week, and the Lions have just one victory by my accounting—and that one was a total freebie!  Now to be fair, I think they’ll certainly take at least one of these home games--I put it on Minny just because A) it’d be an awesome story and 2) screw the Vikings.  I’m really going to have a hard time being talked into any more than 2 total wins by this point . . . I just don’t see it.  I think the Lions will do better on the back nine, but this is a brutal stretch.  I really, really, really hope Lions fans show the team some patience that it admittedly, has not deserved.

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