Lions Kool-Aid? Make Mine A Double

Lately, I’ve been catching some flak in the comments (and on Twitter) for drinking the Lions Kool-Aid. Baking the Lions cornbread. Being trapped in a bizarre delusion that the Lions are going to make the playoffs. Insisting all the injuries the Lions have suffered won’t affect the bottom line. Calling Matthew Stafford a top five quarterback. At some point, I have to face reality, right? If I’m not pulling my punches, I must be punch drunk—right?

At this point, Jim Schwartz’s tenure is cosmetically identical to Rod Marinelli’s. Both took over a listless team with no real identity, both made strong moves to radically change the scheme and roster; both guided their Lions to impressive winning tears in their second year. In Marinelli’s third year, though, the Lions went 0-16. How can I be certain—as I am—the Lions will be better this year than last?

Marinelli’s third offseason was full of turmoil and turnover. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz left, and the Lions did not replace him. Instead they let the OL coach and WR coach—neither with NFL coordinator experience—call the plays in “I’ll steer, you work the pedals” manner. The Lions traded disgruntled DT Shaun Rogers for soon-to-be-disgruntled CB Leigh Bodden, and found out Rogers was their entire run defense. The Lions were counting on “projects” like Kalimba Edwards to make great leaps forward. Altogether, there were more signs pointing toward the Lions taking a step back than improving.

Under Schwartz, the Lions have retained both coordinators for two second consecutive seasons. No Lion coach/coordinator triumvirate had all retained their jobs even once in the prior thirteen years! The entire starting offensive line has—presuming health—returned intact. The last time that happened was in 1990, when Lomas Brown, Eric Andolsek, Kevin Glover, Ken Dallafior, and Harvey Salem returned from the 1989 squad. If we count Amari Spievey as a holdover, this will be the first time the Lions haven’t brought in at least two new starters in the secondary since 2000, when Bryant Westbrook and Kurt Schultz got hurt.

The Lions have built a real team; the permanent foundation to a perennial winner. They’re building and building and building and nothing is falling down. In the ruthlessly entropic NFL, very few teams have any kind of staying power. Life in the NFL is dog eat dog, and many of the 32 dogs never get their day. That the Lions have built something this solid, this lasting, already puts them ahead of most teams in the NFL, especially with this crazy lockout-shortened offseason. Teams with significant turnover—like the Bengals—are going to be miles behind the Lions, purely on continuity. Consider the massive stock of talent the Lions boast (8/11 offensive starters are first- or second-round picks), and it’s easy to see why I’m certain the Lions will win more games than they lose.

Look, I'm the Flamekeeper. I'm the guy who chops the wood and brews the cider. If I weren’t inclined to look ahead to better days, this blog would be grim work. But I don’t just blow hot air—I work hard to keep the fire burning with real fuel.  Last season, when the Lions were 2-9, I didn’t ladle out weaksauce excuses. I examined statistical models of winning, losing, and variance in the NFL—and found out that the Lions were, objectively, a lot better than their record implied. Moreover, the numbers pointed toward a strong regression to the mean by the end of the season; sure enough the Lions closed out the year on a 4-game win streak.

Even at 6-10, the Lions won two fewer games than their scoring margin and strength of schedule would predict—and that’s without Matthew Stafford. For that matter, it’s without Nick Fairley, or Titus Young, or Eric Wright or Stephen Tulloch or Kevin Justin Durant, the lot of whom will be in position to make major impacts in roles of need.

If you call that Kool-Aid, fine. Make mine a double.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,matthew stafford

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It’s a Marathon, Then a Sprint, Then a Marathon

Just after the new year, I started the Couch-to-5K running program.  It’s designed to get someone who lives a sedentary lifestyle ready to run a 5K in just nine weeks.  This Saturday I finished Week 5, day 3:

Brisk five-minute warmup walk, then jog 2.5 miles (or 25 minutes).

Whoever designed this program is a genius.  Every time the workout steps it up, I think, “Oh man, there’s no way, this is gonna kill me.”  Not only hasn’t it killed me, after most workouts I feel energized, powerful, healthy, alive.

This workout, the 20-minute run, is a big hurdle in the program; the longest run prior to that is 8 minutes.  The 8-minute ones weren’t a picnic, and I’d never run for 20 continuous minutes in my life.  Yet, come Saturday, my running partner and I settled into a slow-but-steady groove; still going after 15, 16, 17 minutes.

Lately, we’d been trying to “kick” to the finish of these workouts; pick up the pace for the last thirty seconds or so.  But, with all these walk/jog/walk/jog exercises, I’d spent about six weeks “running” and had never actually run.  Pacing myself has always been a problem for me, and I’d been fighting the urge to just take off for weeks.  But, when my partner said “a minute left, you wanna sprint?” I said "Okay"—and I took off.

In sailing, there’s something called a bow wave: the water being parted and displaced by the ship’s bow.  A ship’s speed is partly limited by this resistance; a normal sailboat can’t go fast enough to get up over this bow wave, and start sailing on the water.  However, with the right shape of hull, and enough power, a watercraft can hydroplane—skim on the top of the waves, free of the resistance of the water.

That's what it felt like during that run: I was skimming on top of the pavement, slicing through the air,  arms and legs swinging free, feeling only explosion under the balls of my feet as they touched, touched, touched the pavement.  Free from the slow-but-steady groove, free from the sustainable pace, I was completely unleashed and absolutely flying.

It dawned on me that sixty seconds of sprinting is an awful lot of sprinting, and my eventually my Emersonesque “transparent eyeball” moment fell back down to Earth with a lot of being really tired.  However, I was amazed—when the clock hit 00:00, I didn’t hack, cough, retch, or collapse, I just breathed really hard over and over and over.  I was spent, but I still felt energized, powerful, healthy, and alive.

It was those weeks of jogging, though, that made it possible.  At the beginning of the program, sixty seconds of jogging felt like an epic crucible: it seized my calves, made me cough and hack, and pushed me almost to my limit.  Just weeks later, though, I jogged for 19 minutes, sprinted about a minute more, and felt energized, not defeated.

So it is with free agency.*

The Lions’ out-of-character burst of activity in the wee hours of Friday morning added three solid pieces at three critical positions of need—and those additions made the team better.  While signings like Bryant Johnson and Grady Jackson certainly “filled”, at least on paper, holes in the Lions’ starting lineup, we can see that the sum of all those leftover parts didn’t actually upgrade the quality of the team. 

The Lions spent last year furiously churning the roster, scouring the waiver wire, signing practice-squadders, making trades, working out street free agents, signing and cutting guys left and right.  All the while, they were desperately hoping to find some foundational depth, youth, and talent; trying to supply the coaching staff with the raw material needed to build a winner.

If the Lions had made these same signings this past offseason, it wouldn’t have done them nearly as much good.  Replace Bryant Johnson with Nate Burleson, Dewayne White with Kyle Vanden Bosch, and Landon Cohen with Corey Williams . . . how many more wins do the Lions get?  Not many.

As Mike Rosenberg of the Free Press said:

The signings of Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nate Burleson and the trade for Corey Williams make sense, not just in a vacuum but in the context of what the Lions are trying to do. Finally, there is a plan.

Exactly.  With the 2009 draft class, and the entire 2009 year’s worth of coming and goings, the roster has taken shape.  There are some real assets for the future, and some cornerstones (Stafford, Johnson, Delmas) upon which to build.  These three acquisitions fit nicely into place—but that’s only because the past year’s worth of effort has built a place for them to fit into!

Now, there are still plenty of niches yet to be filled.  Commenters rightly christened the release of Patrick Buchanon, and allowance of Will James and Anthony Henry to leave, “Cornerback Armageddon”.  This Armchair-Linebackerian phrase fits perfectly—not because Buchanon, Henry, or James are devastating losses, but because there isn’t a single NFL-caliber corner on the roster behind them.  Four or five “good dime/okay nickel” guys, perhaps, but nobody who could be entrusted with covering an NFL wide receiver one-on-one. 

With top free agent corner Dunta Robinson gone to Atlanta, second-best corner Leigh Bodden wanting nothing to do with this franchise, and word on third-best corner Lito Sheppard, it looked as though the Lions’ options were between slim and none.

Instead, Mayhew did his thing, hammering out a deal to send the Lions’ sixth-round pick to Atlanta for newly-demoted-for-Dunta CB Chris Houston.  Moreover, the Lions are rumored to be entertaining a younger depth-type corner, Jonathan Wade from St. Louis.  Together with holdovers Eric King and Jack Williams, the Lions should have mix of experienced young veterans fighting for the #2, #3, and #4 cornerback spots.

This begs the question: when will the Lions fill the #1 spot?  Patience, friends—you can’t keep up a sprint forever, and this one’s already over.  However, the Lions will go back to the marathon: signing, trading, and releasing guys according to their plan, upgrading and remaking whenever there’s a chance.  Oh, and drafting.  Don’t forget drafting.

*I made you wait 500 words before I got to football.  Did you think I was going to pull it off?

Technorati Tags: detroit lions,nfl free agency,nfl,chris houston,johnathan wade,dunta robinson,leigh bodden,lito sheppard,atlanta falcons,running,trancendentalism

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the Turk comes for six

As has been extensively reported (here's Tom Kowalski's mlive.com piece on it), the Lions cut five former starters yesterday, as well as an OT nobody was ever aware was on the roster, Jon Dunn.  The other five? Leigh Bodden, Dan Campbell, Mike Furrey, Edwin Mulitalo, and Dwight Smith all got the axe, freeing up quite a bit of cap room (around $11 million), and depleting the Lions' roster of anyone who would ever start for another team at cornerback, tight end, and offensive guard.

All of these guys were set to earn more than they were worth, and none--with the possible exception of Bodden--will be hard to replace.  Bodden's travails have been well documented. Yet Campbell, Furrey, Mulitalo, and Smith are all very high character, very high effort guys.  When Campbell was signed, I had Cowboys fans come out of the woodwork to congratulate me and all Lions fans on getting such a great player and great person.  Unfortunately, injury kept him from ever showing us how good he really could be.  Furrey was a fan favorite rags-to-riches story--from being cut off the Rams as backup safety, to leading the NFC in receptions in 2006.  Furrey wasn't the same without Martz calling the shots--and without lining up against third corners and linebackers instead of #2 CBs.  Big Ed Mulitalo was big, and a tough guy with a suitable name ("Ed").  We didn't learn much about him during his time here, but he was by far our most dependable, highest-performing guard, and the only interior lineman who could push the pile when asked.  Smith wasn't nearly the ballhawk he's been everywhere else in his career, but he was a great guiding hand for our young safeties.

What I'm saying here is that the Lions are not just sweeping yesterday's trash to the door, but good players who work hard and deserve better than to be rubber stamped "BAD EGG" and dumped down the furnace.  Moreover, this team that was desperate for decent starting talent just lost quite a bit of it.  The situation at corner is officially dire--we're talking Red Alert, Defcon 1, all hands on deck bad, here, folks.  Even if you argue that TE and OG are positions where you can get by with scrubs, we've been doing that for years and years and years now--David Sloan and Jeff Hartings were our last two talented starters at those positions.  #2 WR is now a concern as well--though given the glorious talent of Megatron and the desperate needs everywhere else on the field, I don't expect it to get major attention.

To bottom line it, these cuts (and the others that are coming) were probably necessary to set up the cap for future years, and to fully close the chapter on what little Rod--and Millen--had built.  Still, as my next round of position breakdowns is about to show, the talent level of this roster is bordering on nonexistent.  Mayhew, Lewand, Schwartz, & Company better have a real clear roadmap going forward--and enormous stones.

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baby, it's cold outside

Yesterday, I took the minivan out for a desperately-needed car wash.  The family truckster was smothered in a chalky, dingy coat of salt and dirt; three straight rounds of "I'll wash the car when it stops snowing and warms up", only to have niether happen, had taken their toll.  Well, I happened to be out and about, it was a bright, beautiful day, and the little ones always enjoy the big floppy cloths and the "rainbow soap" and the roaring  flamethrower turbine dryers.  With the mercury rising dangerously close to what we Michiganderanians consider T-shirt weather--fifty degrees--it seemed like the perfect thing to do on a lazy Sunday.  Then, I got to the parking lot.

  Fifty other people'd had the exact same idea.  The line for the car wash extended all the way out into the street, and people were just parking in one of the driving lanes with their turn signal on.  Everyone had followed the same thought process I had: beautiful day, been putting it off for months, doing nothing else . . . wash the car.  It's one of the things about the long, cold winter--it synchronizes our thoughts and actions.  It adjusts our expectations.  It makes us thrill for the merest hint of warmth.  It messes with our heads.

It's been funny as this year's NFL Draft Circus puts up the big tent.  The mockers are mocking, the analysis is flowing, and guys are rising and falling up the chart as the only real piece of info anyone has to go on--the Senior Bowl--has created almost unstoppable momentum.  Some of you might remember, I'd identified  B.J. Raji as a guy we should look at with our 1.20 . . . he had a good practice in the Senior Bowl--he was completely invisible in the game--and he's now a lock for the top ten, according to most mocks.  This, despite the fact that he wasn't graded as a top ten guy mostly because of his inconsistency.

It's funny, because with all the Lions fan mocks, comments, analysis, reaction, blogpost, blog comments, forum threads and replies, texts, tweets, and smoke signals, they all say the same things: "we need linemen", "we need corners", and my favorite, "we need five immediate impact players in this draft".  It's the same thing we do every year: we look at the team, and we think about the team we wish it was.  It's part of where we've grown up: we want tough.  We want a vicious, stingy defense.  We want to be stout against the run and relentlessly attack the pass.  We want to control the ball, control the clock, control the game.  Hit people in the mouth so hard they can't hit back.  We all follow the same, reasonable thought process.  We look at the 2008 Lions, and subtract, at least, Mike Furrey, Leigh Bodden, Edwin Mulitalo, and Dan Campbell.  Then we examine the differences between the 2008 Lions and the mythical, "2000 Ravens + QB + Megatron" we wish they were.

Then, we look at the pool of available candidates and start trying to check them off.  Crushing OT: Andre Davis, check.  Dominant MLB: James Laurenitis, check.  Smothering cover corner: D. J. Moore in the second . . . check?  Pair of RB-eating defensive tackles:  Um, maybe we trade up for B.J. Raji?  And, uh, I guess we sign Haynesworth?  You're dreaming.  Double-digit-sack DE?  Brian Orakpo.  Come on, you've already spent your two first-round picks three times.  Well, uhm, uh, is Julius Peppers going to be available?  Not to the Lions he isn't!

Hey, nice to see the National Football Post has been reading and agreeing.  Hey, fellas, what's up?

Seriously though, some of the reaction I've gotten on my Freeman pick in the NSS Interblog Mock Draft has gotten me thinking.  It's funny, because I often take a rap as an "optimist", an "apologist", a "sucker", or even an "idiot" because I never stop cheering for the Lions.  I never call the players bums, I never call the coaches or morons or idiots.  I never loudly proclaim that "I'm done with them", threaten to kill them, or root for the Reaper to come swiftly for Big Willie Style.  But then a lot of the so-called 'realists', the loudest complainers and most aggreived moaners, are right in line with me at the car wash!  We're all in a big herd saying, we need OT, we need DT, we need CB, we need LB, we gotta get five impact players, we need more talent, we gotta get bigger, we need, we gotta, we need, we gotta . . . whoa, whoa, WHOA!  I'm going to say something I never say during the season:

The Lions suck.

They suck, folks!  Our team, the Lions?  They suck out loud.  They blow goats.  You cannot add enough 23-year-old fatsoes to this roster to turn them into the 2000 Ravens.  You have to step back.  You have to take a breath.  Throwing rookies at pressing needs is not going to help--rookies, for the most part, can't fill those needs.  If you need Ray Lewis now, you can draft eleven MLBs and not get the one Patrick Willis that would help.  If you need Jonathan Odgen now, you can draft eleven offensive tackles and not get the one Jake Long that would help.  SO FEW rookies make an immediate impact!  First-rounders play like top starters as an exception, not as a rule.

Well, what about free agency?  Not much better.  This isn't the 90s anymore--good teams aren't shedding veteran starters in their prime for the rest of the league to gobble up.  The great dynasties of this era are all ten or twenty million under the cap.  Nowadays, almost by definition, if free agents were worth the amount of money they're asking for, they'd still be with their original team.

So . . . what, then?  You build for the future, because it's all you can do.  You have to take the players that you want to build up.  That you want to build your team around.  Coming into the 2011 training camp, these players should be the core of the team.  But coming into the 2009 camp, these players should--and will--be learning, and growing.  One or two of them might catch fire and contribute right away--but they will be hope for the future, not the foundation of a contending team.  We can't grade the players drafted this April by what happens on the field this September.

What we WILL get to grade, though, is the way Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand handle this draft.  We can see how they feed the roster, what positions need attention, if they appear to be working with the coaches, if they make trades, if they stand pat, how they react to the board unfolding in front of them.  THAT is what we should really be anxious to see in April--not eleven new Lions, but the performance of the men charged with drafting, teaching, coaching, and leading them.

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. . . and so it goes

Detroit News writer John Niyo, amongst others, is reporting that CB Leigh Bodden won't be retained.  Mlive.com's Tom Kowalski has an excellent piece on it here.

Group A: Cory Redding, Kalimba Edwards, Jeff Backus, Dominic Raiola. 

Group B: Roy Williams, Shaun Rogers, Jeff Hartings . . . Leigh Bodden?

Group C: Kevin Jones, Johnnie Morton, Luther Eliss . . . Leigh Bodden?

Much has been made of the Lions' consistently poor drafting.  After all, it seems evident: so few of the many high Lions draft picks are still with the team!  Yet, as bad as the Lions' drafting has occasionally been, I actually don't think the Lions' pattern of first-day failure has been extraordinary.  Go look back through NFL Draft history: every first round, from every year, has some stars, some decent players, quite a few disappointments, and several laugh-out-loud busts.  What slot in the first round you're talking about doesn't matter--I believe the figure most often quoted is that 50% of all first-round picks are busts.  And when you consider that first-rounders are both theoretically the most talented of all draftees, and definitely command the greatest financial commitment from the franchise that drafted them, that means that the other rounds probably have similar--if not higher--percentages of failure.  Think about it, folks: every team invites 80 players to training camp; 2,560 guys enter July with a shot at an NFL job.  By mid-August, that number has gradually shrunk to the 53-man active roster--that's 1,696 real jobs to go around.  The NFL draft is seven rounds long, times 32 teams, plus compensatory picks; let's call it 250 rookies drafted every year.  Plus, most teams bring in 5-15 undrafted free agents.  That means that every year, ~350 kids come looking for one of 1,696 jobs--and many keep coming year after year, bouncing around the CFL, Arena League (now defunct), NFLE (now defunct), XFL (now defunct), UFL (supposedly starting up), and AAFL (supposedly starting up) . . . the vast majority of new hopefuls will spend years trying to break onto an NFL roster.

The question becomes, when will they let the incumbent go?

The Lions' biggest problem, to me, hasn't been the multiple high-profile misses at the top of the first; it's been the inability to identify and retain the talent it does develop.  Look at Group A up above: Cory Redding, Kalimba Edwards, Jeff Backus, and Dominic Raiola.  All were high Lions draft picks.  All of their performances showed both downside and great upside through the duration of their rookie contracts--and for all, the Lions chose to retain them by paying them what they'd be worth at the peak of their upside.  Redding, Edwards, Backus, and Raiola all signed massive extensions, as if they were amongst the best in the league at their position.  And, the truth must be told, all of them had at least flashed that level of on-the-field play at that point.  Even the biggest disappointment of those four, "Kalimbust", had an overlooked-by-most sensational rookie year, highlighted by a game against Atlanta where none other than Mike Vick was unable to escape his relentless pursuit.  These are the players people think about when they assert that the Lions consistently "overpay to keep mediocre talent around".

Let's look at Group B: Roy Williams, Shaun Rogers, and Jeff Hartings.  Each of these three were obvious "hits" from the day they took the field as Lions.  Each reached the highest level of performance right away.  Each had some struggles with either injury, discipline, or inconsistency, and each was either traded or allowed to walk away.  Each has gone on to (or "will go on to"--I'm sorry, but Roy will be sweet in Dallas) great success elsewhere.  These are the players people think about when they assert that the Lions consistently "won't pay to keep good players".

Finally, Group C: Kevin Jones, Johnnie Morton, Luther Eliss.  All Lions first-round picks.  All acheived great success with the Lions, albeit for varying lengths of time.  At the time each was released (or allowed to walk away), Lions fans were stunned.  These were valuable contributors who had productive years in front of them!  Moroever, each individually had many rabid fans amongst the Lions faithful.  To send them packing--and get nothing in return--seemed ridiculous.  And yet . . . Eliss was nothing more than cheap depth in New England.  Johnnie Morton picked up his monstrous paychecks in KC with a mask and a gun.  KJ was a mostly-invisible backup to workhorse rookie Matt Forte in Chicago this year, and will be lucky to ever start again in the NFL.  These are the players nobody ever thinks about, because the Lions got it right.

Notice there's not a group D: players that the Lions took a chance on keeping, and got it right.  Obviously, Morton and Eliss each recieved multiple contracts with the Lions through their veteran careers, but each were clearly productive veterans who had a well-defined role on the team.  It didn't take much talent to decide to extend a perennial Pro Bowl DT in his prime.  Also, the Lions get no cookies for cutting obvious busts like Joey Harrington, Mike Williams, and Charles Rogers.  Instead, look at the way New England tap-dances around their roster:  Wes Welker gets extended, Deion Branch gets shipped off.  Mike Vrabel is kept, Roosevelt Colvin is released.  Production is rewarded, inconsistency punished.  Youth is not seen as a virtue of itself, yet veterans who are too old to produce are treated mercilessly (see: Brown, Troy).  Easy-peasy, right?

Well, no.  Belicheck and Pioli ran circles around the rest of the league in this area for years--and with the billions being thrown around to chase those two, they'd have been caught if it were easy.  Yet, just last year, the Patriots were a dude catching a ball with his helmet away from going 19-0.  

This is the first of the real "crossroads" decisions the Lions' new brass have had to make: Bodden is a young veteran in his prime, and came to the Lions with all the indicators of success--physical tools, confidence, some real time starting, and some real production in that time.  However, it's indisputable that Marinelli's desire for "53 gym rats" didn't mesh with the acquisition of Bodden, that Bodden's skills weren't ideal for the Tampa 2, and that Marinelli's stick-and-bigger-stick approach to motivation did nothing but DE-motivate him.  So a talented, young-but-experienced player at position of desperate need is sent packing, more because of the Lions' mishandling of him than because of his failure to produce.  Make no mistake, though, Bodden DID fail to produce.  If he is half as skilled as he thinks he is, he should have been able to perform better than he did in 2008.  Putting 8.5 million dollars in his pocket, and committing to him for three more years--when he was already publicly dissillusioned with the franchise--certainly seems like a gamble.

So Lewand and Mayhew are put to the test.  Will Bodden be the next Jeff Hartings, a perennial standout for an elite franchise?  Or will he be the next Johnnie Morton--a bitter disappointment to a team that thinks they're getting a standout starter just entering his prime?  At this point, only time will tell.

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old mother hubbard: the cornerbacks

Ever since Bryant Westbrook went down in the midst of a Pro Bowl-to-be season in 2000, the Lions have struggled to find quality cornerback play.  This situation looks like it's unlikely to change for 2009.

Leigh Bodden: When they traded Shaun Rogers for Cleveland CB Leigh Bodden and a third-round draft pick, it was hoped that the young (27) veteran could step in and cover opposing teams' top recievers.  While the Tampa 2 defense relies mostly on short zones--and asks its corners to step up and play run defense--Bodden is more of a traditional man-to-man cover corner.  Still, with his size (6'-1". 193), it was hoped that he'd be able to make a natural transition to the play of a Tampa 2 corner.

 . . . not so much.  Bodden seemed lost early on, neither playing well in coverage nor in run support.  Bodden quickly became a favorite target of the naysayers, especially as the huge hole in the middle of the defense became obvious.  However, in the middle of the season, the light started to go on.  Against Washington he had 8 tackles (7 solo), and in the first Minnesota game he had his sole interception (down from six in 2007).  That, by the way, was the ONLY interception registered by ANY Lions defensive back.  That is . . . that is horrible.

At the end of the season, it was obvious that Bodden disliked the defensive system he'd been shoehorned into--and the coaching staff who did the shoehorning:

“You've got to be unpredictable, and I feel like sometimes we were kind of too predictable in what we were calling -- and that costs you,” Bodden said. “If the offensive coordinator can pretty much tell what you're about to run, then he's going to beat whatever you have.”

Amen, Leigh.  Amen.  I still believe that Bodden is an extremely talented and confident young corner, and will almost certainly be a better starter in the new system than anyone else we can acquire, either through free agency or the draft.  However, Bodden will be due an $8.6 million roster bonus in March, and it seems unlikely that the Lions would want to exercise that bonus.  Most are treating his departure as a foregone conclusion, but don't be so sure--cornerback is probably the thinnest position on the roster.  Bottom line: a talented young cover corner in his prime, horribly misused in the T2, and probably out the door for contract reasons.  Should be excellent in 2009 whether he's here or somewhere else.

 Travis Fisher: Fisher is yet another constant target of Lions fans' ire, yet he's quite good at the things Tampa 2 corners must do: he's stout against the run and provides good short-zone coverage skills; in 2007 he had 78 tackles (60 solo) and two interceptions.  The problem is that he has neither the athleticism nor the deep speed to cover opposing teams' #2 wideouts.  In 2008, he had a very slow start, missed a few games with a knee injury, and then had a very slow finish as well.  I see Fisher as a good nickel back or situational short-zone corner, a guy who can tackle and jump slants.  However, the guy is regularly scorched on medium and deep routes.  I would say that we need to acquire a starter to replace him at #2 corner--yet if Boddenis cut, and he's re-signed, he'll be our #1 corner!

Vomit.

Bottom line: Fisher is cheap depth, forced into a starting role.  His "skills" are best suited to the Tampa 2 we won't be running anymore.  His contract is up, and he is due to be an unrestricted free agent.

Stanley Wilson:  A 2005 third-round draft pick, fourth-year speedster (and Stanford grad) Stanley Wilson exploded at the tail end 2006, earning a starting spot and the team's Chuck Hughes award for 'most improved player'.  It seemed like Wilson was well on his way, and began the 2007 season as the starting RCB.   While he had some great individual games (8 tackles against Chicago!), he was in and out of the lineup due to injury, eventually being put on IR after the Thanksgiving game.  in 2008, Wilson blew out his Achilles tendon in the first game of the preseason.  Wilson at this point is a totally unknown quantity . . . his youth, blazing speed (4.36 @ the combine), decent size (5'-11". 189), and his play at the end of 2006 points to a very bright future.  However, his inability to stay healthy, inconsistency, and the Tampa 2 scheme he played in make him an enigma.  Even if he rehabs to 100%, his contract is up--Wilson will be an unrestricted free agent.  Bottom line: Wilson is a bright and talented young man who can't stay healthy.  Moreover, his contract is up.  If he attracts little interest, the Lions may re-sign him to a "prove it"-type contract to see what he can do in the new scheme.

Ramzee Robinson:  Famous mostly for being the 2007 draft's Mr. Irrelevant, Robinson has been cut, assigned to the pratice squad, signed, cut, and assigned to the practice squad about 237 times in two years.  He got signed for good in the middle of 2008, and made a little noise on special teams and in the dime packages, getting 25 tackles.  As an Alabama starter with a little size to him (5'-10", 186#), Robinson should make the squad next year--due to attrition if nothing else.  Bottom line: a seventh-round draft pick with a smidge of upside, who ought to make the team next year.

Keith Smith: a third-round pick in the 2004 draft, Keith Smith has seen some time at nickel and dime, and has occasionally been pressed into starting duty when others have been injured.  Smith has never made much of an impact, and at age 28 he's probably peaked.  Smith played 10 games in 2008 before being placed on IR . . . he's a placeholder at best.  I believe he's an unrestricted free agent.  Bottom line: Smith never amounted to much, and if he somehow re-signs with the Lions will be strictly a cheap warm body.

SUMMARY:  The situation here is dire.  Bodden is a legit NFL #1 CB who could excel in the new system, but is due a monster bonus they might cut him to avoid paying.  Travis Fisher is a nickel back at best, and is a free agent.  Stanley Wilson has the talent to be an exellent man-to-man cover corner, but he can't stay healthy and is a free agent.  Robinson is depth with a little upside, and Smith is a scrub and a free agent.  If Bodden is let go, we will need three new corners, two of them starters.  I hope Bodden is kept, and we draft a corner with legit speed and excellent return skills--hell, maybe two of them.  A veteran starter would be nice, and Titans fourth-year CB/KR Chris Carr is reportedly interested in getting out from under the shadow of Cortland Finnegan & Co. in Tennessee.  Sounds good to me.  Bring friends Chris; bring friends.

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Detroit Lions Coaching Search Rumors and Lies

According to regular poster 'Blog' on the Lions fan forum Lions Red Zone, former New York Jets head coach Eric Mangini spent last night at the Dearborn Ritz-Carlton.  Mangini may well have interviewed with Mayhew/Lewand/Big Willie Style, but I doubt that he is the leading candidate and I doubt that the Lions are his most favored suitor.

To wit: Mary Kay Cabot of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports that the Browns will be interviewing Mangini--this is significant because Mangini not only began his career with the Browns as a ballboy, the Browns are the only team that has been reported to attract reciprocal interest from Patriots VP of Player Personnel Scott Pioli.

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Terry Foster of the Detroit News did an interview with 97.1 FM host Mike Valenti, and said that former Ravens head coach and current Fox broadcaster Brian Billick queried the Lions brass about their interest.  Apparently the Lions wanted to bring Billick into the process immediately, but Billick got cold feet, and the Lions were not going to stall their interview process to wait around for him.  It sounds as though Billick wanted to keep his options open, but the Lions are trying to move on this as soon as possible.

I've thought before that Billick would make a good fit--Jim Colletto was Billick's OL coach, RB coach Sam Gash played under Billick in Baltimore, Billick broadcast several Lions games this year and would practically not shut up about what opportunities the Lions had, what they could do better, his respect for Marinelli, etc. etc. etc.  Still, it looks as though Billick thought he might have a better gig elsewhere if he waited around, and the Lions thought they could do just fine with the candidates they have.

Early on, Billick was my favored candidate--intelligent, has a Super Bowl ring, has won in Minnesota with explosive offense, has won in Baltimore with punishing defense, kind of splits the difference between "pretty boy players coach" Mariucci and "sawed-off field general" Marinelli . . . I figured with a strong veteran GM in place, like Floyd Reese, Billick could be the right personality to get moving in a different direction.  However, with Mayhew and Lewand in place, the Lions' brass is going to be looking for a pure coach, a young fiery guy who'll stick to Xs and Os and speeches--and won't be second-guessing and undercutting them all the time.  Just a case of bad timing?  A missed opportunity?  Or the Lions making the right call in looking for someone they know is thrilled to take the job?  Only time will tell.

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From John Niyo of the Detroit news, comes an interesting quote from cornerback Leigh Bodden.

If it was a coaching staff that really appreciated me and really liked what I did as a player, then, of course.  That's really what I didn't get here, and it's hard to play for somebody like that. If they bring somebody in that respects the way I play -- because I'm one of the best in the league, and if a coaching staff can respect that -- then I'll be happy anywhere.

This jibes neatly with my earlier post--Bodden's a very good cover corner in a system that doesn't really need one.  My guess is that with a strong defensive head coach, preaching the right system, Bodden will come around.

New Lions President Tom Lewand and GM Martin Mayhew held a presser today.  Amongst the more interesting tidbits was a clarification on the power structure: Mayhew will in fact hold "final say" authority over all football matters.  However the Lions are still looking for a third authority figure to serve as an assistant GM to Mayhew.  This 'assistant GM' would almost certainly be a player personnel expert to help Mayhew out with draft and free agent acquisitions.  Tom Kowalski of mlive.com had hinted at this possible arrangement, and floated the name of former Giants GM Ernie Accorsi as the type of candidate they'd be looking at.  If we could get Accorsi in-house to do any kind of personnel work, I would be absolutely ecstatic.

Technorati Tags: nfl,detroit lions,brian billick,martin mayhew,tom lewand,eric mangini,cleveland browns

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