the cavalry

I recently particpated in a three-round fan mock over at The Huddle, a fantasy football website I've frequented for ages.  The mock started several weeks ago, and picks were selected by either a diehard fan of that team, or a committee of such fans.  Things were VERY interesting, to say the least.  It's becoming apparent that the Lions are going to have a good solid look at many outstanding propsects with each of these five picks:

1.1 - What else is left for me to say about Wake Forest linebacker Aaron Curry?  He's the most extraordinarily gifted player in this draft class.  He's a freak of size, speed, strength, and agility.  He's an extremely intelligent young man, with impeccable character.  He's a born leader and motivator.  He would step in and be the heart and soul of a defense that hasn't had any of either for a decade.  I know it's increasingly looking like that won't be good enough to avoid the Lions rolling the dice on yet another quarterback, but damn it, it was my pick and I made it my way.

surprise risers: 1.11, Michael Johnson to Bills; 1.12, Peria Jerry to Broncos

surprise fallers: 1.15, Matt Stafford to Texans

1.20 - An embarassment of riches?  More like an avalanche!  With one of the big three QBs yet undrafted, one of top four LTs still there, and Aaron Curry still the only LB taken, I had several players available to me that I'd figured would be long gone.  I gleefully took Ole Miss OT Michael Oher.  A player I've been following as a possible Lion-to-be for two years, Oher could step in and absolutely maul people at the LG spot, until either he supercedes Backus at LT, or Backus' contract becomes edible.  Snagging a top-ten worthy franchise LT at the 1.20 spot would be an enormous coup.  Still, if we could go into the draft knowing the USC MLB Rey Maualuga would be here at this spot, as he was for me in this one, I wouldn't feel so bad if the Lions took Stafford over Curry.  I'd still feel bad, just not "reaching for the drain cleaner" bad (thanks, Neil!).

surprise risers: 1.29, Philip Loadholt to Giants

surprise fallers: 1.23, Rey Maualuga to Patriots (those jerks always get bargains like this!), 1.25, Aaron Maybin to Dolphins, 1.29

2.1 - As I'd hoped, the QB freeze-out continued, and Kansas State QB Josh Freeman--a player I've championed as a better medium- and long-term alternative to Matt Stafford and a possible pick at 1.20--slid all the way down to the first pick in the second round.  If he makes it this far, he would represent excellent value, and the Lions would have a Young Culpepper for Linehan to start from scratch with.  I hate Culpepper, but Freeman's natural gifts are absolutely undeniable.

surprise risers: 2.31, Herman Johnson (LSU OG) to Cardinals

surprise fallers: 2.27, Evander Hood to Panthers; 2.32, Duke Robinson to Steelers

3.1 - Unlike with the 2.1, I felt tugged in several different directions but wasn't really sold on any of them.  I could go DT, WR, or DB.  Ultimately, I took CB Coye Francies out of San Diego Jose State [thanks to Anonymous for the correction!].  He's got good size at 6'-0" 185, decent speed (4.56), and has an long frame with room to grow.  He's aggressive with bumping receivers at the line, and loves to tackle (the pic you see of him above his him upending Dwayne Jarrett at the goal line).  He's hard-nosed, a hard worker, and should develop into a great complement to a pure athletic cover guy like Buchanon.  Franices also had a 22.9 yard-per-return average as a kick returner.  The big knock on Francies was a 2007 incident where he was charged with possessing a loaded firearm.  The charges were dropped, but he was still dismissed from the Oregon State team.  He then went to San Diego State to finish out his college career.   Francies isn't jawdropping value here, but is definitely an okay pick.  I feel strongly that the Lions will come away with a CB out of their first four with a CB, and Francies was the best CB who could tackle and return available.

surprise risers: none really

surprise fallers: 3.15, SenDerrick Marks (Auburn DT) to Broncos; 3.17, Fili Moala (USC DT)

3.20: It was wild to watch those two DTs fall (I've seen Marks projected as a high second-round guy) . . . I was hoping one would slide to me.  Instead they both got snapped up right in front of me.  Then I was left with a somewhat decimated board.  I decided to go with the best player available, and that was UNC wideout Brandon Tate.  An incredible athlete who's a monster returner, Tate is the all-time NCAA D-I record holder for career return yardage.  Tate was used both from the WR and RB positions, but projects as a slot wideout in the NFL.  He's amazing in space and after the catch, and would be a outstanding addition to the Lions' WR corps.  Unfortunately, he tore his ACL and MCL just five games into his senior season, leaving most of his potential unfulfilled.  Despite the short time on the field, his incredible contributions as a wideout, RB (he was leading the team in rushing when he was injured), and kick returner still garnered him Honorable Mention All-ACC honors.  I think that depending on his knee, Tate might possibly be there for the Lions at 4.1, but they don't have the 4.1, or the 5.1 either for that matter.  The 3.20 will be the last chance the Lions have to draft an impact player, so why not draft a guy who would have been a high-second, low-first if he'd finished out his senior year?  I received many commendations for this selection.

This draft shows exactly how much talent the Lions will be adding to the roster.  I feel strongly that these are the positions they'll be addressing with their magical First Five: LB, OL, QB, CB, and WR.  They may well trade down to make it a magical First Six or First Seven, even.  We can't assume that all these guys will start and succeed right away-or even ever.  The odds say that three of these five talented players will never be significant contributors.   But, this draft will provide a desperately needed influx of skill at several positions of desperate need . . . it can only be a good thing.

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baby, it's cold outside

Yesterday, I took the minivan out for a desperately-needed car wash.  The family truckster was smothered in a chalky, dingy coat of salt and dirt; three straight rounds of "I'll wash the car when it stops snowing and warms up", only to have niether happen, had taken their toll.  Well, I happened to be out and about, it was a bright, beautiful day, and the little ones always enjoy the big floppy cloths and the "rainbow soap" and the roaring  flamethrower turbine dryers.  With the mercury rising dangerously close to what we Michiganderanians consider T-shirt weather--fifty degrees--it seemed like the perfect thing to do on a lazy Sunday.  Then, I got to the parking lot.

  Fifty other people'd had the exact same idea.  The line for the car wash extended all the way out into the street, and people were just parking in one of the driving lanes with their turn signal on.  Everyone had followed the same thought process I had: beautiful day, been putting it off for months, doing nothing else . . . wash the car.  It's one of the things about the long, cold winter--it synchronizes our thoughts and actions.  It adjusts our expectations.  It makes us thrill for the merest hint of warmth.  It messes with our heads.

It's been funny as this year's NFL Draft Circus puts up the big tent.  The mockers are mocking, the analysis is flowing, and guys are rising and falling up the chart as the only real piece of info anyone has to go on--the Senior Bowl--has created almost unstoppable momentum.  Some of you might remember, I'd identified  B.J. Raji as a guy we should look at with our 1.20 . . . he had a good practice in the Senior Bowl--he was completely invisible in the game--and he's now a lock for the top ten, according to most mocks.  This, despite the fact that he wasn't graded as a top ten guy mostly because of his inconsistency.

It's funny, because with all the Lions fan mocks, comments, analysis, reaction, blogpost, blog comments, forum threads and replies, texts, tweets, and smoke signals, they all say the same things: "we need linemen", "we need corners", and my favorite, "we need five immediate impact players in this draft".  It's the same thing we do every year: we look at the team, and we think about the team we wish it was.  It's part of where we've grown up: we want tough.  We want a vicious, stingy defense.  We want to be stout against the run and relentlessly attack the pass.  We want to control the ball, control the clock, control the game.  Hit people in the mouth so hard they can't hit back.  We all follow the same, reasonable thought process.  We look at the 2008 Lions, and subtract, at least, Mike Furrey, Leigh Bodden, Edwin Mulitalo, and Dan Campbell.  Then we examine the differences between the 2008 Lions and the mythical, "2000 Ravens + QB + Megatron" we wish they were.

Then, we look at the pool of available candidates and start trying to check them off.  Crushing OT: Andre Davis, check.  Dominant MLB: James Laurenitis, check.  Smothering cover corner: D. J. Moore in the second . . . check?  Pair of RB-eating defensive tackles:  Um, maybe we trade up for B.J. Raji?  And, uh, I guess we sign Haynesworth?  You're dreaming.  Double-digit-sack DE?  Brian Orakpo.  Come on, you've already spent your two first-round picks three times.  Well, uhm, uh, is Julius Peppers going to be available?  Not to the Lions he isn't!

Hey, nice to see the National Football Post has been reading and agreeing.  Hey, fellas, what's up?

Seriously though, some of the reaction I've gotten on my Freeman pick in the NSS Interblog Mock Draft has gotten me thinking.  It's funny, because I often take a rap as an "optimist", an "apologist", a "sucker", or even an "idiot" because I never stop cheering for the Lions.  I never call the players bums, I never call the coaches or morons or idiots.  I never loudly proclaim that "I'm done with them", threaten to kill them, or root for the Reaper to come swiftly for Big Willie Style.  But then a lot of the so-called 'realists', the loudest complainers and most aggreived moaners, are right in line with me at the car wash!  We're all in a big herd saying, we need OT, we need DT, we need CB, we need LB, we gotta get five impact players, we need more talent, we gotta get bigger, we need, we gotta, we need, we gotta . . . whoa, whoa, WHOA!  I'm going to say something I never say during the season:

The Lions suck.

They suck, folks!  Our team, the Lions?  They suck out loud.  They blow goats.  You cannot add enough 23-year-old fatsoes to this roster to turn them into the 2000 Ravens.  You have to step back.  You have to take a breath.  Throwing rookies at pressing needs is not going to help--rookies, for the most part, can't fill those needs.  If you need Ray Lewis now, you can draft eleven MLBs and not get the one Patrick Willis that would help.  If you need Jonathan Odgen now, you can draft eleven offensive tackles and not get the one Jake Long that would help.  SO FEW rookies make an immediate impact!  First-rounders play like top starters as an exception, not as a rule.

Well, what about free agency?  Not much better.  This isn't the 90s anymore--good teams aren't shedding veteran starters in their prime for the rest of the league to gobble up.  The great dynasties of this era are all ten or twenty million under the cap.  Nowadays, almost by definition, if free agents were worth the amount of money they're asking for, they'd still be with their original team.

So . . . what, then?  You build for the future, because it's all you can do.  You have to take the players that you want to build up.  That you want to build your team around.  Coming into the 2011 training camp, these players should be the core of the team.  But coming into the 2009 camp, these players should--and will--be learning, and growing.  One or two of them might catch fire and contribute right away--but they will be hope for the future, not the foundation of a contending team.  We can't grade the players drafted this April by what happens on the field this September.

What we WILL get to grade, though, is the way Martin Mayhew and Tom Lewand handle this draft.  We can see how they feed the roster, what positions need attention, if they appear to be working with the coaches, if they make trades, if they stand pat, how they react to the board unfolding in front of them.  THAT is what we should really be anxious to see in April--not eleven new Lions, but the performance of the men charged with drafting, teaching, coaching, and leading them.

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mock lion soup: please don't send it back!

So . . . I made my pick over at the Next Season Sports interblog mock draft.

Whoo boy, did it not go as I planned.  As I explained over there, I believe strongly that the Lions are going to look to get bigger up front and through the middle of their defense.  DT and ILB are the two biggest needs--you cannot stop the run with Cory Redding and Landon Cohen in front of Paris Lenon.  It's just not going to happen.  Unfortunately the DT everyone can't get enough of, B.J. Raji, went at 1.10.  The next best DT is Peria Jerry, and not only is he a undersized three-technique DT, he went at 1.19!  There are no other DT's I'd consider.  ALL of the ILBs were gone: Curry, Maualuga, Cushing if you shift him over, and Laurenitis--who I actually think will be the 1.20 if he's there, BTW.  Since Steve from www.detroitlionsblog.com drafted 6'-7", 260# LB/DE Michael Johnson with the first pick, I decided he could flex pretty much anywhere in the front seven except NT in a 3-4 or OLB in a 4-3, and moved on to the next biggest need: Cornerback.  Unfortunately, the top two corners were both gone, including Vontae Davis to the Bears at 18.  I felt that one of the next two corners, Alphonso Smith and D.J. Moore, would be there at the 2.1, so . . . damn.  What next?  I really feel like this is the doomsday scenario for the Lions--there's a bunch of offensive skill position guys here, but nothing the Lions really need--and considering how much they need, that's saying something!  I went with the next most pressing need . . . quarterback of the future:

(photo by Getty Images)

That's right, I took KSU quarterback Josh Freeman, all 6'-6" and 250 pounds of him.  I went into my reasoning quite a bit over at NSS, but basically it's like this: Freeman is the next Culpepper.  He's huge, he's mobile, he's athletic, he's got a gun, he's got a fumbling problem.

Why, if I am such a rabid anti-Cpep guy, would I pick Freeman?  Well, I kind of see "Culpepper" as his downside.  Culpepper never really had to learn to "play QB", since streetball was so effective in both college and the pros.  Culpepper merely shredded I-AA compeition with raw talent, but Freeman was battle-tested against superior Big 12 teams.  Often, Freeman was the only thing going for his Wildcats, leading them in rushing and throwing all over everywhere.  Further, he ran a pro-style offense at KSU--which also featured a significant no-huddle package, proving he can diagnose defenses and run an offense on the field.  Freeman possesses a lot of the indicators for quick success in the NFL (in the mold of Flacco, Ryan, and Roethlisberger).  Yet with no expectations for the Lions in 2009, he can sit and be groomed for a year or two.  Freeman, as a late-first-rounder--as opposed to Stafford as a #1 overall--could easily be billed as a project.  Linehan can teach him to play like he taught Culpepper, maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.  Freeman shouldn't get the kind of "start him now" pressure that Stafford at 1.1 would recieve--and I'd hope the Lions front office and staff would be on the same page about being patient with him.

You know, when it comes to football blogs, a YouTube clip is worth ten thousand words:

Word.

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