Sunset in the Tundra

"Sunset in the Tundra" - Kahnjan Metha

This morning, I was rooting through my drawers for an appropriate shirt.  Being Friday—and, therefore, Casual—I often don the colors or gear of one of my chosen sports teams.  During football season, I’m consistently sporting Lions gear to close out the work week.  This morning, it clicked.

It’s over.

The Lions are not going to play any more football until next autumn.

As we age, years seem to get shorter and shorter.  Seasons change as fast as we can get used to them, months are over before we know it, weeks melt away like ice in a fire . . . and days are interminable.  Yet, this annual cycle of football/no football stays the same.

In-season, it feels like the game always has, and always will, be there—week after week after week, football has a lovely rhythm.  We watch the game, have our Sunday outbursts, our slept-on-it Monday reactions, and our Tuesday and Wednesday reflections.  Then, three days of hype about, breakdowns of, and buildup to the next contest.

But now, we step foot onto the seemingly-infinite ice sheet between us and more Lions.  Oh, sure, there’s the playoffs, Super Bowl, college all-star games, etc.; we’ll get our football fixes.  But as of right now, we no longer live in the real: we return to our annual festival of speculation, argument, infighting, name-calling, prognosticating, and pronouncement-making that DF1979 over at Roar of the Lions aptly calls the “Ifseason”.

The Ifseason has always been a double-edged sword.  On one hand, “optimists” such as myself now have a an infinite canvas of snow upon which we can paint scenes of future Lions glory.  On the other, every internet discussion about the current and future Lions will be like NFL front office LARP: imaginary battles fought with foam swords and pretend spells.  Lions fans will argue vociferously over what is and is not real, what will and will not be, and what would and would not happen in various scenarios.

As exasperating—and pointless—as it is, it’s really all we have.  Despite what can only be described as massive upheaval last offseason—new President, GM, Head Coach, coaching staff, logo, uniform, and half of the roster—the improvement was difficult to quantify: from immeasurably bad, to merely awful.  Is 0-16 to 2-14 significant?  Are the Lions on the right track?  Did Mayhew, Harris, Schwartz, Cunningham, and Linehan overcome all odds to get this team back on the board, or did they fail spectacularly?

Obnoxiously, we won't be able to know—for real—until next autumn.

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the watchtower: Lions vs. Bears

In the previous Watchtower, I really struggled.  There was no data for the Ken Whisenhunt-Gunther Cunningham matchup; they’d never coached against each other.  The limited data for the Cardinals’ DC, Billy Davis, indicated a very strong systemic advantage when facing Scott Linehan offenses—which is bizzare; 3-4 defenses typically struggle against Linehan’s schemes.

However . . .

Every single piece of data I have, both objective and subjective, points to a Cardinals blowout. However, there has not been a more “off” and “on” team over the past two seasons than the Cardinals. The one thing they haven’t done in this Warner/Fitz/Boldin/Whisenhunt era is meet expectations—they beat teams they shouldn’t beat and look amazing doing it, and they lose to teams they have no business losing to, and look horrible doing it.

Further, I can’t imagine that a Jim Schwartz team comes back for a home game after a bad performance and rolls over from the opening gun--if so, it should raise some serious red flags. My instincts tell me this will be more like a 35-21 loss—but if Culpepper plays, and Fitz and Boldin don’t take the game off, I don’t see how the Lions keep it that close.

The only hope for the Lions is the Cunningham/Whisenhunt matchup—they’ve never faced each other before, and Gunther’s certainly much more experienced. Maybe, just maybe, a little dose of Guntherball flummoxes Warner early, and the sacks and turnovers come—as they did on Monday Night.

My instincts turned out to be as right as the numbers were wrong: the Lions lost, 31-24.  What does this tell us?  Only that it’s extraordinarily rare for a team to take a 40-plus-point beatdown two weeks in a row.

After a week off of doing the Watchtower—sorry, again!—we find ourselves at the end of the line.  This home contest against the Bears is the last game of the Lions’ season—and, therefore, the last Watchtower of the season.  As I’ve hinted at before, and as Neil commented response to the last post, it’s getting harder and harder to do this.

With Matthew Stafford on the shelf, and neither Drew Stanton nor Daunte Culpepper playing well enough to allow the Lions to win, this all seems pointless.  However, it’s not pointless to the Lions who are fighting for jobs in 2010—so let’s at least take a cursory look.

Gunther Cunningham vs. Ron Turner

Tur	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	DYpA	YpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
CHI	KCC	26th	17.7	5.78	3.64	11th	18.8	6.60	4.12	10	6.44	1	1.84	2-11
CHI	DET	22nd	19.3	6.08	3.89	31st	30.5	7.83	4.36

In the previous Watchtowering of the Bears, I used both data from the actual Bears’ OC, Ron Turner, and his brother Norv.  This was a conscious attempt to expand the data set, knowing I might be including spurious data.  It wasn’t too ridiculous—besides being brothers, the Turners were assistants to several different coaches from the same tree.

However, this didn’t give me anything useful, and I concluded:

So, IF we consider Ron and Norv Turner interchangable--and we don't--then given greater, equal, or lesser talent, Gunther Cunningham's hyperagressive 4-3 appears to match expectations versus a Turner Bros. Coryell-style downfield passing offense (albeit while generating very high sack and turnover numbers). That is to say there is no systemic advantage or disadvantage for either team.

Thanks in part to a horrendous performance by the Lions’ special teamers, the Bears turned an average starting field position in Lions’ territory into a whopping 48 points.  This was not a systemic thing.  Up until Monday’s 36-point game against the Vikes, the Bears had only topped 20 points three times: against the Lions, Browns, and Seahawks.  Moreover, Cutler’s arm and Chicago’s group of speedy—if not skilled—wideouts posed all sorts of matchup problems for the Lions’ secondary.

So, what happens this time?  The Bears’ scoring offense has been, as I said, underwhelming.  In fact, it’s been barely any better than the Lions’ offense!  With an anemic 6.08 YpA, and unimpressive 3.89 YpC, they may well outstrip their averages again—but without another record-setting performance by their special teams, they shouldn’t outstrip the Lions’ average-allowed figures.

Therefore, despite a matchup advantage that has a lot more to do with talent and personnel than system, the Bears should outperform their season averages—but not exceed the Lions’ season average-allowed numbers.  I project 28-32 points, 7.50-8.00 YpA, and 3.00-3.50 YpC.  I have low confidence in this prediction.

Augmenting/Mitigating Influences

First, the biggest influence is going to be the meaning of the game. The first contest was the 1-2 Lions visiting the 2-1 Bears, in a critical early divisional contest.  This will be the 6-9 Bears visiting the 2-13 Lions—and those Bears just finished a dramatic, deep-into-overtime win over the Vikings.  That Monday Night Football went so long it extended into Tuesday!

So the Bears have a short week after a season-reclaiming signature win, and the Lions will host a sellout crowd.  All of the elements are in place for the Lions to close this season out on a high note.  If the defense can play as they have the past few weeks—limiting offenses like the Bengals’ and Cardinals’—instead of the way they did in Week 4, this will be a close, winnable game . . . if the offense can actually find the end zone.

Scott Linehan vs. Lovie Smith

Lin	Smit	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	YpA	YpC	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	Sack
MIN	STL	6th	26.0	7.60	4.75	17th	20.5			17	6.88	1	7.27	8-54
MIN	CHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	13th	20.7			27	11.61	0	4.04	4-10
MIN	CHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	13th	20.7			14	8.45	3	6.64	5-34
STL	CHI	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	3rd	15.9			27	6.47	1	4.59	3-24
DET	CHI	27th	15.9	5.30	3.95	21st	23.5	6.31	4.35

The first time around, I concluded:

Given greater, equal, or lesser talent, Lovie Smith's relatively aggressive Tampa 2 will surrender a disproportionate amount of yards to Linehan's balanced offense, but also generate high numbers of sacks and turnovers, disproportionately disrupting scoring.

the most likely outcome involves Stafford getting rattled by the Bears, getting sacked 3-to-5 times and surrendering at least two turnovers. Despite moving the ball as well as they have all season, the Lions should score below expectations (currently 19, though a 3-game average is nearly useless).  This is much less well defined, but my guess is that the Bears will match or slightly outperform their scoring expecations (also currently 19, equally shakily), with one dimension of the offense working much better than the other.

And this all was pretty much spot on:

• Stafford was sacked five times, for a loss of 42 yards.
• Stafford lost a fumble on one of those sacks, and threw an interception.
• The Lions generated a season-high 398 yards of total offense, and scored 24 points--for reference, they scored 20 points off of 231 offensive yards in Week 1.
• The Bears scored 41 offensive points. As a team, they ran 20 times for 151 yards (7.55 YpC) and 3 TDs. They passed 28 times for 141 yards (5.04 YpA) and 2 TDs.

If we apply that to the Lions’ current averages, and account for the Bears’ defense’s averages, my projection looks like this: 13-16 points, 6.00-6.25 YpA, and 4.50 YpC.  I have medium to high confidence in this prediction.

Augmenting/Mitigating Influences

Of course, the ongoing problem with projecting the Lions’ offense has been the game of musical chairs at quarterback.  The Lions’ offense is simply a different beast with healthy Matthew Stafford . . . and it’s bestial without him.  Whether it’s Stanton or Culpepper is at the helm, the Lions’ offense is incapable of generating touchdowns.

On the other hand, this game really does set up well.  All of the momentum, intangibles, hunches, home-field advantage, etc. swings in the Lions’ favor—and they’re also much better at home than on the road.  If whoever is playing quarterback can avoid turnovers, this game will be much closer than the data would indicate.

Unfortunately, neither Stanton nor Culpepper has shown an ability to avoid turnovers. A couple of early INTs, and the rout could be on . . .

Conclusion

I’ve said throughout this piece that I don’t think this game necessarily follows the data. The Lions are unquestionably better at home than on the road, and the defense is also unquestionably better now than it was in Week 4.  The Week 4 contest was also totally skewed by they absolutely horrific performance of the Lions’ special teams units, an area which has been addressed in personnel.

That having been said, the Lions’ offense has been so completely moribund, that I have a hard time believing they’ll meet even my meager projections.  Therefore, I’ll go with the data: 28-32 points for the Bears, 14-16 points for the Lions.  My instincts tell me this is a very winnable game, but the data just doesn’t support it.

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Snow on Snow on Snow

Technically, I’m still on vacation.  But this morning, I had an errand to run, so I woke at my usual time.  Throwing on jeans, a T-shirt, coat, and Lions cap, I trudged out to my snowed-over car.  I sighed, pulled my scraper out, and attacked the windshield.

The scraper zipped across the glass, revealing a swath of the interior. To my surprise, there was no ice underneath the snow!  I smiled, flipped the scraper over to the brush side, and made quick work of the rest.  I hopped into the front seat, turned the key, and the engine roared to life.  Local AM sports talk radiated out of my speakers, and the dashboard informed me: “OUTSIDE TEMP 22”.

I gave the throttle a few quick blips, then rubbed my hands together while I waited for the coolant temp needle to budge.  The sports talk was centered entirely around Michigan State basketball, and for that I was thankful.

You see, it was one year ago that I found myself in this same position—only then, winter’s grip on my car, and my spirit, was much tighter.  The temperature was eight below zero, I’d spent ten minutes chipping the ice off my car, and the radio had spit venom about the Lions just having completed history’s first 0-16 NFL season.

The dizzying range of emotions—dejection and determination, hopelessness and hope—that I went through that morning inspired me to grab a Blogspot account and put it all “on paper”.  This year?  It’s almost the opposite.

The Lions are better this season than last.  They’ve won two games, and have taken many others deep into the fourth quarter.  They’re also further along in the franchise-building process: they have a quarterback who’ll be their starter for the next few seasons, and a rookie has developed into a starting-caliber player at every level of the defense (line, linebackers, secondary).  They have a few veterans who’ve played well this year, and will be back next year.  Most importantly, the head coach and coordinators will be coaching these same systems throughout next year—ensuring continuity for the first time since 1997-1999, when Sly Croom handled the offense, and Gary Moeller assisted Bobby Ross with the defense.

Though Ross, of course, stepped down in the middle of the '99 season, those three consecutive seasons included the Lions' last two non-losing campaigns, as well as their last playoff appearance.  I'm not suggesting the Lions should clear their travel calendars for January 2011—but the complete lack of continuity, of building, of progress is at least partly to blame for the Decade Of Failure.

Simply knowing that this franchise has a direction, regardless of what direction it is, is comforting.  We know exactly what will happen this offseason: the Lions will add talent to what they already have.  There will be no addition by subtraction, no change for change’s sake, no “looking for a spark”.  Indeed, that’s the best part: there already is a spark—it just has to be fanned into a fire.

While I cannot pretend that anything I say or do will ever cause the Lions to win or lose a game, what I can do is keep the flame of fandom burning.  Believe it or not, that will be just as harrowing of a task as it was last season.

You see, a week from now, the waiting will be over—and the “getting on with our lives” will begin.  Unlike the 2008 campaign, where incredible passion about the new front office and furious speculation about the coaching search frothed and surged within hours of the final gun, 2009’s ending will be a languid drift into permanent sleep.

It’s often been said that fan apathy is far more dangerous than fan anger.  Will the fans won’t come back, after having checked out for so long?  The 2009 home opener sold out; everyone wanted to see the New Lions with their new coach and their new quarterback in their new uniforms with the new logo.  It’s hard to imagine the Same-as-Last-Year-But-Better-We-Hope Lions having the same draw.

So enjoy this last round of cider, folks.  Let’s swap a few more tales before we again don our hats and boots and gloves, and trudge back out onto the barren tundra.  Maybe some folks will even stick around through the lean, bitter months.  We can tend the little blue fire together.  We’ll pack up snow to protect against the wind, and we’ll keep plenty of sticks on hand to fuel the flames.  I can’t promise it’ll be fun, but it’ll be more fun than doing it alone.

For now, though, let’s just enjoy what’s left.  Let’s hope the Lions give the Bears all they can handle.  Let’s hope they go out on a win.  Let’s cheer on every Lion, young or old, starter or backup, on a multi-year deal or  on the back of a bus ticket.  Let’s see if these men can stoke the blue fire for us one more time, before Winter descends on us with everything it’s got.

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Highlight Reel Diaries, Vol. II

Christmas is a holiday of recipes: gingerbread recipes and casserole recipes, stuffing made three different ways, Grandma’s ancient instructions for cooking ham or prime rib. There are even debates about whether to follow the recipe on the back of the can of cream of mushroom soup, or the one on the back of the can of those crispy onion things.
Christmas is also when Lions fans call for their Fan Favorites—and there’s a recipe for those, too:
1 6^th- or 7^th-round draft pick (you may substitute an undrafted free agent)
1 Memorable name, or nickname
2 decent plays in training camp
Take rookie with memorable name; watch him in training camp. Once rookie has made a big tackle, blanketed the team’s star wideout for a play, or scored a long touchdown, begin cries of “He just made the team!” When rookie makes a similar play in a preseason game, he may be safely pronounced “better than” the starter at his position. If rookie actually makes the team, print jerseys and cheer immediately. Serves sixty thousand.
What’s interesting about Drew Stanton is that he doesn’t follow this recipe. He’s a second-round draft pick—a cursed Millen second-rounder, no less! He’s been injured early and often. On a team that’s gone through quarterbacks like the All-You-Can-Eat section’s gone through bratwurst, Stanton’s never merited a chance. Yet, Lions fans have spent the last two weeks calling for him to play. Why?
The cynical will point to his alma mater, Michigan State. But it’s not just Spartan fans who’ve been banging the gong on Daunte’s tired act. Drew’s become an icon of the Millen era: even when Millen drafted a true talent, he or his coaches put him in a position to fail. If Drew succeeds, it’ll mean the reclamation of a young career—and a second-round draft pick.
Drew’s never gotten a real chance to prove himself. He’s seen some preseason action, and done well. He’s finished out some regular-season blowout losses, and done poorly. But yesterday, Jim Schwartz announced that Drew Stanton will start this week, and get all the first-team reps in practice. This is the chance he’s never had, to prepare as the starter, practice with the ones, and start.
Judging by what little we have seen of Drew, I don’t anticipate a great day against the 49ers. They have an aggressive defense, led by Patrick Willis, and called by two former linebackers: head coach Mike Singletary, and defensive coordinator Greg Manusky.
Still, the Lions showed last Sunday that they like Drew, they play hard for Drew, and they might even play better for Drew. Schwartz has given Drew Stanton a Christmas present—let’s hope he re-gifts it to us.

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three cups deep: resignation

Don't be fooled by the title!  I'm not tendering my “resignation”, merely writing about my mood this morning.  My second cup of coffee is slowly waking me up to reality: the Lions really lost to the Rams.  Moreover, they looked completely impotent.  It wasn’t just that they couldn’t score any points the Rams didn’t hand them for the first three quarters.  It was hauntingly familiar scene: linemen who couldn’t block, receivers who couldn’t catch, and defenders who couldn’t tackle.

In the theatre of the mind, the DVD one feels has been popped in is the 2002 Lions.  There’s rookie Joey Harrington trying to keep his head above water, throwing to a cobbled-together crew of stone-handed also-rans: Bill Schroeder, Az-Zahir Hakim, Scotty Anderson.  There’s RB James Stewart, a decent NFL starting back, whose inside running style is being stymied by an offensive line unable to open inside holes.  That line, of course, features Jeff Backus, Dominic Raiola, a young mammoth RT with tons of upside but questionable athleticism and instincts (Stockar McDougle), and a rotating cast of has-beens and never-wases at guard (Tony Semple, Ray Brown, Eric Beverly) . . .

The resemblance is uncanny.  However, there are a few critical differences between the ‘02 Lions and the ‘09 Lions.  Joey Harrington, then, was clearly “swimming”; in NFL-speak, that’s thinking instead of acting or reacting.  You could watch his wheels turning, watch him trying to take it all in, watch him trying desperately to slow it all down.  In 2009, Matthew Stafford looks more like he wishes he could slow it down for his teammates.  He looks like he’s trying to will his team to victory—or like he’s trying to win despite them.  It’s telling that on the Lions’ sole offensive score, Stafford called his own number.

There's another critical difference: one of the NFL’s best WRs was on the sideline.   In 2002, there was no Calvin Johnson who wasn’t able to go that day; Schroeder and Hakim were it.  With Megatron in there, Bryant Johnson and Dennis Northcutt become valuable second and third options instead of woefully inadequate starters.  With Megatron in there, Stafford has an oasis he can go to again and again, instead of rocks in a desert.  With Megatron in there, the defense has to bend and flex soften and roll his way, opening the field up for everyone else.  

There’s one more critical difference: the defense.  Believe it or not, folks, this Lions defense is starting to meet expectations.  Many thought the Rams would finally get their passing game on track against the Lions’ woeful secondary, but 17-of-35 for 176 and 0 is not what I would call “on track”.  If you switch the fake field goal TD for, you know, a field goal, that leaves the Rams with 13 points; exactly what I projected.

Sure, they allowed 149 yards rushing to Steven Jackson—and yes, he made a lot of would-be Lions tacklers look like fools.  But Jackson’s the hardest man in the NFL to bring down, and until the closing minute he never even hit paydirt.  The fact is, a defense that holds its opponent to 13 points has done its job.  A defense that holds its opponent to 13 points, in the NFL, should expect to win.

Ultimately, that's what hurt the most: we expected the Lions to win this one.  They were favored, they’d played better throughout the year, they were at home, and this was the softest opponent on the schedule.  Winning this game would have been a solid step forward: “Hey, we were supposed to win and we did!  Good on ya, boys!”  Meanwhile, the Rams wanted to win.  Needed to win.  The Rams might not have another winnable game left on their schedule ; to them, this was the last chance they had at preventing their own run to 0-16.

The Lions probably got the Rams’ best effort all season—and if the Lions’ WRs could catch a pass, the offensive line could have blocked a little better, or the defense could have tackled a little better, the ending might have been different.  Instead, we need to collectively sigh.  We need to hang up our dreams of 7-9, our expectations of 5-11.  We need to stop thinking that the quick-fix bounceback is happening; it isn’t.  We need to resign ourselves to reality: the Lions are not good, and they’re not going to be good this season.

Let's take another swig of coffee, and open eyes: from this point forward, we're looking for sparks. We're looking for signs of growth, for evidence of progress. We need to see Matt Stafford developing, and starting to elevate those around him. We need to see Calvin Johnson get healthy and build a rapport with Stafford. Mostly, we need to see this team fight for every down, every game, all the way out--even if they don't win any.

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The Watchtower: Lions at Bears

In last week's installment of The Watchtower, I thumbed my nose at some who said this type of breakdown had nigh-insurmountable statistical limitations. While I acknowledging that the limitations are real, I argued that careful extension of the sample size, and intelligent subjective interpretation, could coax worthwhile predictive information from the limited data.

There are a couple of key words there: "careful", and "intelligent".  Faced with a dearth of information on Redskins' DC Greg Blache's playcalling and schemes, I used data from his days as Dick Jauron’s DC in Chicago, as well as a 2008 game between the Rams and Redskins (that occurred after Linehan had been fired). I also made an error in calculating a couple of the averages on Linehan's data--so not only was I working from a shaky set of data, I fumbled the calculator work.  Here's what I predicted on the Lions offense versus the Redskins defense:

Regardless of talent or execution, Greg Blache's philosophy of a strong front four and committment to run-stopping disproportionately slows Scott Linehan's balanced offense.

Oops. What actually happened was that the Lions ran all over the Redskins, carrying 36 for 154 yards; a stout 4.28 per-carry average. In the two-and-a-half quarters that Kevin Smith played, he gouged the Redskins for 101 yards on only 16 tries; that's an astounding 6.31 yards per carry.  This was the exact opposite of the result that I predicted.

However, the conclusion I came to for the overall game wasn't too far off:

The most likely scenario is an absolutely brutal game, a physical brawl where both teams try but fail to control the ball with the running game, sacks and turnovers abound, penalty flags fall from the sky like rain . . . and the team whose quarterback performs the best wins.

It certainly was an ugly game, and quite physical. Sacks and turnovers not so much (2 sacks for each team, 1 turnover for Washington and none for Detroit (!)), but the penalties were obnoxious: 17 penalties were called, for 155 yards. I'm going to call last week's Watchtower a general success, but a cautionary tale against making unsupported conclusions--and screwing up the numbers!

Unfortunately, this week poses another problem: Bears OC Ron Turner spent 1997-2004 as the head coach of the Fighting Illini--meaning there's a big gap in his NFL track record. Fortunately, his 1996 Bears (yes, Turner's been the Bears OC twice) did face off against Gunther Cunningham's Chiefs, so we have one good data point. As for more?

Ron Turner's coaching "tree" isn't as clearly deliniated as most. He appeared on the NFL scene as Bears OC, after only one year as San Jose State's head coach.  Then, he coached Illinois for many years, only to come back as Bears OC--both times, he served under defensive-minded head coaches; there was never any NFL mentor/mentee relationship.

A little Googling reveals that he was an assistant to Ted Tollner at USC, and got the SJS gig after serving as OC to Denny Green at Stanford. This places him in a conservative branch of the Air Coryell tree, away from the Martz/Gillman/Saunders group; a twig of the Zampese/Turner branch. Wait, Turner?  Yes: NORV Turner.  Ron and Norv Turner are brothers.

Obviously, the two men aren't interchangable.  So, I'm going to avoid drawing any firm conclusions from the one true data point we have. However, as we see above, Norm studied under different coaches from the Air Coryell tree, and both men prefer to combine power running with downfield throwing.  Norv has coached in-division against Gunther twice, in 2000 with the Chargers, and in 2004 with the Raiders. Therefore, we have four data points for Norv, and I will look at them--KNOWING that it's just an exercise in curiosity.

Turn	Gun	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
CHI	KCC	26th	17.7	5.78	3.64	11th	18.8	10	6.44	1	1.84	2-1	2-11
SDC	KCC	26th	16.8	5.60	3.03	19th	22.1	10	4.83	1	3.5	1-1	6-31
SDC	KCC	26th	16.8	5.60	3.03	19th	22.1	17	5.9	2	2.36	3-3	6-28
OAK	KCC	18th	20.0	6.63	3.96	29th	27.2	27	8.37	0	3.44	0-0	3-10
OAK	KCC	18th	20.0	6.63	3.96	29th	27.2	30	5.86	1	4.55	0-0	2-17

In 1996, Ron Turner's Bears faced Gunther Cunningham's Chiefs, and it was an ugly sight. Turner's offense was the 26th-ranked scoring O in the league, mustering only 17.7 points per game. The passing offense was anemic, only 5.78 yards per attempt, and the rushing offense wasn't any great shakes either, with only 3.64 yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Chiefs were the 11th-best scoring defense, allowing an average of 18.8 ppg. I'd expect the Bears to underperform their average pretty significantly--and they did, scoring only 10 points. They passed a little bit above expectations, 6.4 YpA, but the rushing was completely denied: a microscopic 1.8 YpC (19 carries for 35 yards!). That's certainly a good start, but the discrepancy in talent is huge.

In 2000, Norv Turner's Chargers played the Chiefs twice--and interestingly, those Chargers were also ranked 26th in the league in scoring offense, averaging 16.8 points scored. Passing for only 5.6 yards per attempt, and rushing for only 3.03 yards per carry, the '00 Chargers weren't much to write home about.  Gunther's Chiefs weren't quite as fearsome as the 1996 unit, though, ranked 19th and allowing 22.1 ppg.

Interestingly, the end result was exactly the same: the Chargers scored 10 points. The run/pass effect was reversed from the '96 Bears matchup, though.  Passing was depressed, with a really brutal 4.83 YpA, but rushing got a slight bump, up to 3.5 YpC.  Note the sack total: 6 sacks for -31 yards! In the second '00 match between Norv and Gunther, the result was largely similar, but with the run/pass effectiveness flipped again: 17 points scored, 5.9 YpA, 2 picks, 2.36 YpC.  Again with the disruption: 3 fumbles, all lost, 2 picks, and another half-dozen sacks for 28 yards lost!

Now, in 2004, the execution shoe was on the other foot: Norv's Raiders were the 18th-ranked scoring offense, 20.0 ppg, but the Chiefs were a wretched scoring defense, ranked 29th, allowing 27.2 per game.  Predictably, the Raiders outperformed their season average, scoring 27 points.  The Raiders passed all over the Chiefs, with 8.37 YpA, but running was depressed by half a yard per carry (3.44 YpC vs. 3.96 avg.).  Oddly, no turnovers were generated, but the Raiders were sacked 3 times for -10 yards.

Finally, on Christmas Day 2004, the Raiders travelled to Kansas City, MO., for an exceedingly similar (yet, again, run-pass flip-flopped) result: 30 points, 5.86 YpA, 4.55 YpC. So, IF we consider Ron and Norv Turner interchangable--and we don't--then given greater, equal, or lesser talent, Gunther Cunningham's hyperagressive 4-3 appears to match expectations versus a Turner Bros. Coryell-style downfield passing offense (albeit while generating very high sack and turnover numbers).  That is to say there is no systemic advantage or disadvantage for either team.

Lin	Smith	Ornk	PgG	YpA	YpC	Drnk	PpG	PTS	YpA	INT	YpC	FumL	Sack
MIN	STL	6th	26.0	7.60	4.75	17th	20.5	17	6.88	1	7.27	3-2	8-54
MIN	CHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	13th	20.7	27	11.61	0	4.04	4-2	4-10
MIN	CHI	6th	25.3	7.16	4.71	13th	20.7	14	8.45	3	6.64	1-1	5-34
STL	CHI	10th	22.9	6.69	4.26	3rd	15.9	27	6.47	1	4.59	1-0	3-24

The study of Scott Linehan versus Lovie Smith is an interesting one; half of the matchups involved the St. Louis Rams--but one was with Lovie as defensive coordinator, and the other was with Linehan as head coach!  Lovie is another Tampa Two disciple, though he seems to run a slightly more aggressive variant than Dungy did in Tampa--and especially more than Dungy has in Indy.

Smith has been by far the most successful of the many T2 disciples --arguably, the only one to be successful--in recreating the suffocating Tampa Bay defense. The talent he's consistently accumulated on the DL, and the born-to-play-T2-MLB Brian Urlacher, has allowed the Bears to be consistently placed among the better defenses in the NFL.

The first matchup, in 2003, Pitted Linehan's Vikings against Smith's Rams. As we all know, the '03 Vikings were potent: the 6th-ranked scoring offense (26.0 ppg).  Passing was strong at 7.6 YpA, and they were absolutely totin' it with 4.75 YpC.  St. Louis' defense was ranked 17th, allowing 20.5 PpG. Astonishingly, they held the Vikes to just 17 points, depressing yards-per-attempt by three quarters of a yard, and sacking Culpepper a breathtaking 8 times for -54 yards. Uh-oh.

There was one bright spot: The Vikings ran it 26 times for 189 yards; that's a walloping 7.27 yards per carry.  Presumably, the 2 lost fumbles and thrown pick derailed (or made irrelevant) that ground game success.

In '04, it was nearly the exact same Vikings squad: 6th-best scoring offense, 25.3 ppg, 8.18 YpA, and 4.71 YpC. However, Lovie's Bears were better than his Rams: 13th best in points allowed, with 20.7 per game. This time, thought, we see a lot more consistent result: the the Vikings slightly outperformed their average, scoring 27 points, passing for a mind-numbing 11.61 YpA, and still carrying for a solid 4.04 YpC. Even though the passing game was working so well--averaging a first down every attempt--Linehan kept the playcalling very balanced, 23 runs to 31 passes. Sacks were cut in half (to a still-significant 4-for-10); the Vikes lost two of four fumbles.

The second 2004 game, the Vikes mildly outperformed their season per-play averages in passing (8.45 YpA, 8.18 avg.), and wildly outperformed in rushing (6.64 YpC, 4.71 avg.). However, all of this success only led to 14 points.  How?  The three interceptions, 1 lost fumble, and 5 sacks for -34 probably had something to do with it.  I’m sure the difference between September in the Metrodome and December at Soldier Field also came into play.

Finally, the most interesting data point. Linehan's Rams faced off against Lovie's Bears in 2006, when the Rams were the 10th-best scoring offense (22.9 ppg), averaging 6.69 YpA, and running at a 4.26 YpC clip. The Super-Bowl bound Bears defense was ranked 3rd in the NFL, allowing a meager 15.9 points per game. What happened? The Rams scored 27 points, of course! Before we get excited, 14 of those came in the fourth quarter of a 42-27 blowout . . . clearly, this scoring performance is an outlier.

What is relevant, though, is the YpA (6.47) and YpC (4.59) being right in line with the season averages, despite a significant talent deficit. Again, we see 3 sacks for -24 yards, one fumble forced, and one interception.

All of this leads me to a definitive conclusion: Given greater, equal, or lesser talent, Lovie Smith's relatively aggressive Tampa 2 will surrender a disproportionate amount of yards to Linehan's balanced offense, but also generate high numbers of sacks and turnovers, disproportionately disrupting scoring.

I'd love to say that the positive momentum of the win over the Redskins will lift the Lions to a second consecutive victory . . . and hey, the last time the Lions got two wins in a row was October 2007, at Solider Field! But I'm afraid that the most likely outcome involves Stafford getting rattled by the Bears, getting sacked 3-to-5 times and surrendering at least two turnovers.  Despite moving the ball as well as they have all season, the Lions should score below expectations (currently 19, though a 3-game average is nearly useless).  This is much less well defined, but my guess is that the Bears will match or slightly outperform their scoring expecations (also currently 19, equally shakily), with one dimension of the offense working much better than the other.

All is not lost!  There is still hope, especially given the all the unknowns surrounding the Bears' O vs. the Lions' D.  But I'm calling for another low-scoring, ugly, sack-and-turnover filled game, and a probable (but probably narrow) Bears victory.

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Victory!

Whew!  I just finished unloading the oaken kegs of cider from my creaky old 1934 Ford stake truck, and it’s going about as fast as I can tap it!  Backs are being slapped, songs are being sung, and the big flue bonfire’s roaring.  In between recounting tales of watching and listening to the game and re-enacting favorite plays, drop me a line with your questions, comments, tales of joy, and unwarranted braggadocio: email thelionsinwinter@gmail.com, Tweet/DM @lionsinwinter, or just comment on this thread!

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completely useless waste of time, part II

When last we left our completely useless waste of time, the Lions had struggled to the Week 7 bye, upsetting only Minnesota in the home opener.  At 1-5, the Lions will be well out of playoff contention.  If, in a currently-unlikely scenario, Duante Culpepper had been starting (in my previous post, I assumed Stafford started from day one), it’s a near-certainty that he will be relegated to the bench at this point.  Ford Field might again be facing blackouts, depending on how competitive the Lions have looked throughout this stretch.  Most “fans” who had hopped “off” the bandwagon, then hopped back on when the Lions beat Minnesota, will probably hop back off again. Fortunately, things look a little better from here on out.

Week 8: vs. St. Louis

For the first time, the Lions face a team also coming off a bottom-scraping year.  The Rams, then under Lions OC Scott Linehan, seemed to have a few pieces in place, but couldn’t reverse the awful momentum of 2007’s crushing disappointment.  Things unraveled so quickly that they were barely ever raveled.  After just four games, Linehan was unemployed, and the Rams were on their way to a 2-14 finish.  Taking over is the man I christened “Candidate 1A” during the Lions’ coaching search, former Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo.

The last significant pieces of the Greatest Show on Turf, WR Torry Holt and OT Orlando Pace, are gone.  QB Marc Bulger, the last of the Martz quarterback projects, probably would have been, too, were there fewer holes elsewhere.  Going into the draft, OT Alex Barron was the only OT on the roster—and he’s in a contract year.  When the Lions passed on drafting Baylor OT Jason Smith, the Rams breathed a sigh of relief, and then jumped on him.  The rookie—and his predecessor, the raw and inconsistent Barron--will see a lot of heat from both the Lions’ DEs and the OLBs behind them, whichever sides they each end up playing.  RB Steven Jackson—with former Ravens C Jason Brown and former Saints FB Mike Karney blocking up the middle--will keep the Rams chugging slowly forward.

However, without a single starting-caliber wideout amongst the 17—yes, seventeen-- currently on the roster, I don’t see the Rams mustering much of an offensive attack.  On the defensive side of the ball, the Rams will expect DE Chris Long—a perfect fit for Spag’s defense--and rookie MLB James Laurenitis, to lead a youth movement.  In reality, I expect the Lions’ balanced attack to give the Rams fits, especially through the air—the Rams have absolutely no answer for Megatron, and whichever veteran ends up in the slot may get to test 3rd-round rookie CB Bradley Fletcher.

W, 35-14

Week 9: at Seattle

There might not be a team harder to project for 2009 than the Seattle Seahawks.  On one hand, Pro Bowler Matt Hasselbeck will—for the first time in ages—have his two best receivers, Deion Branch and Nate Burleson, 100% healthy, as well as free agent signee T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Their leading yardage rusher (Julius Jones) and leading rushing TD scorer (T.J. Duckett) return, and new offensive coordinator Greg Knapp has seen his quarterback go to the Pro Bowl 10 of the 14 years he’s been coaching offense in the NFL.  After drafting OLB Aaron Curry #4 overall, franchising and returning OLB Leroy Hill, and reeling CB Ken Lucas back from Carolina, the defense should be improved, as well.

On the other hand, they went 4-12 last season, head coach Mike Holmgren has “retired”, handing over the job to former Falcons HC Jim Mora, Jr.. Hasselbeck will be starting without the coach that drafted and groomed him for the first time, ever—and led the Seahawks to the third-worst passing yardage  in the NFL last season. The Seahawks’ second-leading rusher (and it was 698 to 574), Maurice Morris, is now a Lion.  DT Rocky Bernard is gone has a free agent, and to replace him with Cory Redding, the ‘Hawks had to trade 5-time Pro Bowler Julian Peterson to the Lions—and blow the fourth overall pick on Aaron Curry to replace him when they could have filled other needs.

The ‘Hawks are coming off a 4-12 season, partly due to a injury-decimated WR corps; partly due to a seeming lame-duck malaise inspired by Holmgren’s pre-announced retirement.  Only time will tell, but these handpicked successions rarely go smoothly.  I think the Seahawks’ passing game is going to be much improved over last season, but Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett are probably not going to overwhelm as an RB tandem; Grady Jackson could have a big day eating their lunch.  The ‘Hawks defense has three great linebackers, not much else, and is switching schemes—sounds familiar, eh?

W, 28-21

Week 10: at Minnesota

We’re not sweeping the Vikes this year.

L, 14-24

Week 11: vs. Cleveland

There were two teams this season whose offseason moves made absolutely no sense to me whatsoever.  Two teams who had a young talent foundation in place, got impatient, made a coaching change—and then spent the entire rest of the offseason dismantling or alienating that young talent foundation.  One is the Broncos, of course . . . the other is the Browns.

After firing former Patriots defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel, the Browns hired former Patriots defensive coordinator Eric Mangini to replace him.  They also replaced their top personnel man, former Ravens exec Phil Savage, with former Ravens exec George Kokinis.  The Browns then traded away elite TE Kellen Winslow, and consistently and heavily pursued Jay Cutler—despite having two good veterans even younger than Cutler in Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson.  Mangini has rubbed many the wrong way, allegedly snubbing DT Shaun Rogers—twice—and painting over a mural of hallowed Browns legends.  WR Donte Stallworth is suspended indefinitely for his DUI manslaughter case--and the other wideout, Braylon Edwards, was the subject of months of trade speculation.

What few pieces the 2008 Browns had in place are now either gone or disgruntled; it’s difficult to see them improving on last year's 4-12 record, especially in the AFC North. Theoretically, the defense shouldn’t have to deal with much transition, as Mangini should have no problem taking over Crennel’s Patriots-style 3-4.  However, the Browns really weren’t running that defense effectively to begin with.  While Kevin Smith might not have a great day against a sure-to-be-motivated Big Baby, I think Stafford and Megatron will have a big day, and the Lions’ defense will come flying through the line wherever Browns’ LT Joe Thomas isn’t.

W, 27-14

Week 12: vs. Green Bay

With the momentum of winning 3 of 4, the Lions face the Packers at to Ford Field.  By my estimations, the Lions are now at 4-6, probably only 3 or 4 games behind the Pack with five left to play.  I still think that the Packers are going to be an offensive juggernaut, and I still think they’re going to have a tough transition to Capers' 3-4.  I handed us a loss at Lambeau—I don’t think we win a shootout on the road--but I’m going to hand us a win here.  Stafford should be settling into a groove, and win after win is building his confidence at this point.

W, 30-27

Week 13: at Cincinnati

Call me crazy, but I think this is the year that the Bengals get back on track.  Chad Ochocinco’s rededicated himself—as has the returned Chris Henry.  Carson Palmer should be healthy and ready to go, and the Bengals have now added beastly former USC LB Rey Maualuga to go with beastly former USC LB Keith Rivers.  Raw, spectacular rookie talents OT Andre Smith and DE Michael Johnson could provide the pass protection and pass rush that the Bengals sorely lacked last year.  Honestly, it’s reminding me of the magical 2004 and 2005 seasons, where the Bengals really took everybody by surprise.

Now, I don’t buy into either Smith or Johnson as perennial Pro Bowlers, and there’s got to be a reason Maualuga fell well into the second round.  However, for just this season, I think Marvin Lewis could pull one last rabbit out of his hat.

The Lions are going to have a hard time covering Ochocinco, Henry, and free agent acquisition Laveranues Coles.  Okay, let me rephrase: the Lions will be completely incapable of covering Ochocinco, Henry, and Coles—and Palmer has more than enough talent to take full advantage. Lest you think the Bengals will be one-dimensional, RB Cedric Benson finally showed everyone he could be the kind of back he was drafted to be.  Besides the rookies, former Cowboys DT Tank Johnson and S Roy Williams should bring the Bengals presence up the middle they sorely lacked last season.  Here, I think, the “"Hey, we’re almost at .500!!” bubble bursts.

L, 10-35

Week 14: at Baltimore

We are not beating the Ravens on the road.  Sorry, folks.

L, 17-24

Week 15: vs. Arizona

Coming off of a Super Bowl appearance—and loss—the Cardinals appear absolutely primed for the classic Super Bowl Hangover.  OC Todd Haley was picked off to become the head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.  DC Clancy Pendergast, in one of the odder turns of the offseason, was fired by the Cardinals after a fairly successful campaign.  Haley immediately snapped him up to be his DC in KC.  Now, OL coach Russ Grimm has been promoted to fill his spot—and Grimm has been a hot coordinator, and even head coach, candidate in the past--but Arizona nonetheless will have to deal with double coordinator change.  QB Kurt Warner is yet another year older, and disappointing “franchise” QB Matt Leinart will have yet another offseason to try to eclipse the old man.  Surprisingly successful rookie RB Tim Hightower then surprisingly hit the rookie wall, and veteran Edgerrin James has spent all offseason begging the Cardinals for a trade—and so has stud WR Anquan Boldin.

While you’d think the reigning NFC Champions would be an impossible foe for the Lions to slay, in reality the Cardinals franchise is kind of all over the place.  The Cards were a mediocre team in 2008 who “clicked” in an incredible way, slaughtering foes in the last couple weeks of the season, and playing great football all the way through the playoffs.  Due to all of the changes I outlined above—plus an underwhelming draft, their first-round pick only muddying the offensive backfield even further with RB Chris “Beanie” Wells—I actually think Arizona walks into Ford Field an underdog.

W, 21-14

Week 16: at San Francisco

There’s an individual who has this date circled on his calendar.  A big-mouthed, fleet-footed defensive back who’s just waiting for the Lions to come into his new house and stick it to them.  Unfortunately, Dre’ Bly is about a foot too short to cover Calvin Johnson.

The Niners’ interim-cum-new head coach Mike Singletary, might be a little rough around the edges, but he’s a tremendous man who’s well respected around the league for his work with the Ravens and the Niners, as LB coach and defensive coordinator, respectively.  His work with mega-stud MLB Patrick Willis certainly can’t be ignored, and he and his staff coaxing a creditable performance from QB Shaun Hill speaks bodes well, as well.  RB Frank Gore brings the kind of steady inside running game that the Lions will struggle to stop.  LT Joe Staley will be as excellent of a pass protector as the Lions’ DEs will face this season, too—if #10 overall pick WR Michael Crabtree makes an impact, the Niners could have a very good offense.  The defense, with big bodied Isaac Sopoaga up front, and LBs Willis and Takeo Spikes in the middle, were the 14th-best rushing defense last season, and 13th-best yardage defense overall.  With a full offseason under Singletary, the Niners hope that defense will firm up even more.

I still don’t buy the quarterbacks; fourth-round rookie Nate Davis might have more NFL potential than either Hill or former #1 overall pick Alex Smith, who’s allegedly “neck and neck” with Hill for the starting gig.  Gore has been on a steady decline, and RB Glen Coffee is another bruiser without burst.  I think the Niners’ offense will be stoppable for the Lions’ defense--but the Lions’ run game will be stoppable by the Niners’ defense, as well.  Whether or not the Lions will be able to pass over CBs Nate Clements and Dre Bly will be the key to victory.

W L, 14-10 (updated to reflect major gaffe*)

Week 17: vs. Chicago

The Lions take Ford Field at 6-10, squaring off against the 7-8 Bears.  Kevin Smith blows holes through the Bears’ Tampa 2, racking up 120 yards and 2 TDs.  Louis Delmas picks off Jay Cutler and takes it back to the house.  In the ultimate fourth-quarter insult to Rod Marinelli and the Bears, Ikaika Alama-Francis collapses the pocket on third down and brings down Jay Cutler to end the Bears’ final drive.  The Bears, through the magic of tiebreakers I don’t fully understand, finish last in the NFC North.  Jim Schwartz is Coach of the Year.  Sammie Hill eats a bear in celebration.  No, not an opposing player, an actual bear.

W, 31-17

*Thanks are due to the anonymous commenter who spotted my egregious arithmetic fail.  I accidentally had eight wins detailed here, instead of the 7 that I meant to.  I think the Lions will take 2 of 3 between Arizona, San Francisco, and Seattle--I gave the W to San Francisco and Patrick Willis, because he frightens me.

So, we have the Lions finishing at 7-9, wildly outstripping the (minimal) expectations set for them, and building incredible momentum towards next season.  It’d be a magnificent turnaround.  While perhaps not as magnificent as the Dolphins’ or Falcons’ 2008 turnarounds, the jury remains out on whether those two teams stay amongst the league’s best.  The Lions, however, will have, yes, poured the foundation for a consistently successful team.  With a mix of very young talent placed for the long run, and very experienced—fine, old—talent in place for now, the Lions will at least resemble a legitimate football team.

Now, will they really win seven games, the year after the only 0-16 season in the history of the NFL?  Well . . . is it that incredible?  They won seven games in 2007, with largely the same roster as they won zero games with in 2008.  There’s no doubt that the Lions are significantly improved in talent, size, and experience across the board.  It’s inarguable fact that the coaching staff is going from one of the least-qualified, least-well-prepared, and most out-of-their-depth in the league, to a brilliant young HC with two extremely experienced and successful NFL coordinators—who, crucially, believe 100% in the new head man and his approach.

The funny thing, to me, is that we can’t really know how the Lions will play until we see them on the field.  In fact, we can’t really know how any team will play, in any year, until we see them on the field.  In the modern NFL, turnover is so high—both on rosters and coaching staffs—and the Xs-and-Os arms race is almost inconceivably fast.  New schemes and plans that work incredibly well Week 1 are neutralized by Week 16.  Players that come out of nowhere to surprise opponents are scouted, mapped, and game-planned out of existence in weeks (see Gado, Samkon).  You can’t possibly look at a team’s roster and record, add what got added, subtract what got subtracted, and extrapolate a conclusion; it just doesn’t work that way—and the 2007 and 2008 Lions are indelible proof of that.

Football teams are incredibly complex systems.  They’re full of moving parts, developing young players, declining veterans, deep emotional connections, public and private strife, inches and yards, breaks and bounces, injuries, turnovers, and lucky breaks.  They’re coaches sleeping at their desks, and coaches hitting the golf course at noon.  They’re a superior training staff, or a staph-infected trainer’s room.  There are a hundred thousand million tiny variables that factor into the on-field performance of an NFL club.  Every single season, each NFL club is a new thing, a new potion, a new mix of hundred different reactive ingredients; they must be evaluated on a case-by-case, year-by-year basis.  Moreover, there’s a reason they say “That’s why they play the games”.  There’s a reason they say "On any given Sunday . . .", the better team doesn’t always win.  You can’t say right now whether the Lions will win or lose against any other team, because you don’t know how good the Lions are, and you don’t know how good the other teams are, and you have absolutely no idea what’s going to happen when helmets and pads clash between them.

So, wait--why did I just make you sit through 4,722 words?  Hey, I told you it was a completely useless waste of time!

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completely useless waste of time, part I

The complete and total lack of football activity this time of year—this is the off-est part of the offseason—is maddening.  No free agency, no contract situations, no draft prospects, no nothing.  Not only is nothing happening now, there’s nothing to anticipate either.  No rumors to monger, no tidbits to share, no quotes to dissect, absolutely nothing to uselessly speculate on.  The coaching staff?  In place.  The schemes?  Drawn up.  The roster?  Set, for the most part, for this season.  The schedule?  Posted online for the world to see.

Hmm . . . are you pondering what I’m pondering?

Week 1: at New Orleans

The season opener feels uncomfortably like ritual sacrifice.  The Lions have gone an absolutely appalling 8-50 on the road since the dawn of the Millen era, and—just like last year—they’re traveling into the Deep South to take on an offensive powerhouse of a team.  Last season, quarterback Drew Brees shredded NFL defenses for 5,069 yards and 34 touchdowns.  Completing 65 percent of his passes, and throwing only 17 interceptions, Brees elevated his usual effectiveness to historic levels, falling just 15 yards shy of Dan Marino’s single season passing record.  While WRs David Patten and Terrence Copper left via free agency, the Saints return Marques Colston and Robert Meachem, and managed to retain Lance Moore and Devery Henderson.  The Saints also took great steps to bolster their long-floundering secondary, drafting CB Malcom Jenkins with their first-round pick, and signing CB Jabari Greer, S Darren Sharper, and S Pierson Prioleau.

This is a nightmare matchup for the Lions.  Their rebuilt secondary is one of the biggest concerns going into the season, and they’ll open the season in a snakepit against the most prolific passing offense in football.  Brees is too good, and has too many options, to be rattled by the Lions’ blitz.  The Saints’ biggest weakness, the secondary, figures to be much improved.  The only window of hope is, as usual, Megatron.  Jabari Greer and Randall Gay are solid NFL cornerbacks, but neither cracks 6 feet or 200 pounds.  The only corner they have who can match up physically is Jenkins, but this will be his first game in the NFL. 

A season-opening victory would be a huge, huge moment for the team and the fans.  It could provide the fuel for a run to respectability, much like last year’s shellacking by Atlanta unraveled everything.  Ultimately, though, the Lions will make it respectable--but I don’t see them winning. 

L, 21-34

Week 2: vs. Minnesota

The Lions will open their home schedule against the Super Bowl-bound Vikings.  They’ll be the Super Bowl-bound Vikings because they are always the Super Bowl-bound Vikings, every single year for the past fifteen years, no matter how many years they play about .500 football.  With the Lions boasting a new coach, new quarterback, new logo, new uniforms, and once again welcoming Brett Favre to Ford Field, the atmosphere for this game is going to be unbelievable.  If the Lions can get anything going in the first quarter, the crowd will lift them the rest of the way.

A win here couldn’t possibly be overhyped.  Breaking the losing streak would be like winning the Super Bowl.  If it happened in the first home game, it would mean a statewide celebration for days.  It would really, truly usher in a new era for the franchise.

Now, the Lions can’t run against the Williams Wall, because nobody can run against the Williams Wall.  The Lions can’t stop All Day, because nobody can stop All Day.  Jared Allen will eat Jeff Backus’s lunch.  Bernard Berrien and Percy Harvin are both way too fast for Anthony Henry.  Brett Favre is Brett Favre.

W, 17-14

Week 3: vs. Washington

Buoyed by the incredible thrill of winning their first game since December 23rd, 2007—The Day of Destiny for Washington, DC!—the Lions will host the Washington Redskins.  The Freemasons, Illuminati, numerology, and Mayan calendar aside, the Lions will take on Martin Mayhew’s old team for the first time since he ascended to the GM position.  Mayhew wasn’t much help the last time the Lions played the ‘Skins, though—Washington administered a 34-3 euthanization.  The Lions were completely dominated in every phase of the game by that Redskins team.  Now, both teams have changed coaches since then, but the Skins’ roster is superficially the same: QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis, MLB London Fletcher, etc. 

However, the ‘Skins made some big waves this offseason.  They signed monster DT Albert Haynesworth to a vault-busting megacontract, and picked up OG help with OGs Jeremy Bridges and, to the Lions’ chagrin, Derrick Dockery.  They overhauled their special teams, picking up P Hunter Smith and K Shaun Suisham.  They also drafted OLB Brian Orakpo with their first-round pick.

The ‘Skins are a much better team than you might think—playing in one of the most brutal divisions in recent memory, they managed to win as many games as they lost last year, yet still finished last in the NFC East.  Undoubtedly improved on-paper, and with a rare season of continuity in the coaching staff benefitting both the coaches and the players, the Skins will be a tough test.  Still, Campbell and second-year head coach Jim Zorn are both feeling the pressure; the Redskins reportedly made offseason overtures both to former Broncos QB Jay Cutler—and his former coach, Mike Shanahan.

The Lions’ best hope will be to contain RB Clinton Portis.  The rift between him and Zorn has made national headlines, and while he says their working relationship is fine, there’s no doubt that Portis is no longer the apple of his coach’s eye, as was the case with Gibbs.  If Portis struggles out of the gate, the Skins may abandon the run—and if Kevin Smith can get around Albert Haynesworth--the Lions could end up controlling the clock.  However, I just went against on-paper reality to hand us a win over Minny; I can’t do it back-to-back.

L, 10-20

Week 4: at Chicago

The Bears ended up with what might have been the Lions’ biggest offseason prize: former Broncos QB Jay Cutler.  For the first time, practically ever, the Bears have a legitimate top-flite quarterback under center.   His arm has given teams fits, and combined with the excellent young running back Matt Forte, the Bears’ offense is probably going to brutalize the Lions’ defense, especially late in the game. 

Now, since the Bears traded away practically their entire draft to get Cutler, they didn’t add much youth to their roster.  With nearly no high picks available to shore up their offensive line, the Bears signed free agent OT Orlando Pace.  No,w Pace isn’t what he once was, but I have to believe he’s still better than many tackles in the NFL, at least for this season.  They also did a “free agency trade”, where former Bears OT John St. Clair signed with the Browns, and the Browns’ old OT, Kevin Shaffer, signed with the Bears.  Finally, they picked up OT Frank Omiyale, from Carolina.  On the defensive side of the ball, added another former Ram, OLB Pisa Tinoisamoa, and S Josh Bullocks—twin brother of Lion Daniel Bullocks—to replace the departed Mike Brown.

Matching them up, again, things look tough.  Cutler’s great at going deep to the outside, and I just don’t like the Lions corners in deep man coverage.  Then again, the Bears wideouts don’t scare anybody either—Marty Booker is gone, and the only WRs on the roster who caught a pass in the NFL last year are Devin Hester and Rashied Davis.  Hester is the #1 WR, though he has yet to prove he belongs anywhere on the field besides behind a return wedge.  If the Lions' corners can blanket the Bears' receivers, and the blitz can beat the Bears’ rotisseried veteran OTs, AND Forte doesn’t beat the Lions by himself, the Lions do have a chance.  Megatron is Megatron, of course, and the Lions’ increased bulk up front could give them an opportunity to control the ball. The Bears’ defense simply isn’t what it once was, and adding Tinoisamoa won’t address the Bears’ uninspired performances as of late.

On the other hand, I hear they have a hot new DL coach who can really whip his guys into shape.

L, 14-17

Week 5: vs. Pittsburgh

Yeah, this’ll leave a mark.

L, 12-42

Week 6: at Green Bay

The Packers are an interesting team.  As usual, GM Ted Thompson made no major moves in free agency—the Packers lost no one of significance, and added no one of significance (except perhaps C Duke Preston).  The Pack merely retained S Atari Bigby, then continued to build through the draft.  They selected DT B.J. Raji with the 9th overall pick, and followed that up with OLB Clay Matthews with the 26th pick.  These two picks will assist in the Pack’s transition to a 3-4 defense, in what is no doubt the biggest upheaval in Green Bay since . . . let me see . . . hmm, when was the last time the Pack faced a major transition?

Oh that’s right: after years of waiting for his rightful succession, QB Aaron Rodgers up and usurped Lord Favre’s throne.  Though Rodgers was mildly panned in 2008 for not carrying his team to more victories, those who watched the Pack closely saw that Rodgers looked like the real deal—it was the wet-tissue defense that let the Pack down, time after time.  Rodgers has been called the “human Juggs machine” by his recievers—and, oh yes, unlike the Bears, those recievers are really really good.  Between former Western Michigan standout Greg Jennings, and veteran stalwart Donald Driver, the Packers boast what might be the most underrated receiver combo in football.

If the Packers’ aging, depleted offensive line can hold off the Lions’ blitz, it’s going to be a long afternoon for the Lions’ defense.  Multidimensional RB Ryan Grant looks to bounce back after a disappointing 2008, and Rodgers is sure to have a little more of that carry-his-team mojo after a full distraction-free offseason as the unquestioned starter.  The least known quantity on the field will be the Packers' defense, which has searched for an identity for a long time.  The Pack have rotated defensive coordinators what seems like annually for what seems like a decade, but their latest is a doozy.  Dom Capers, a brilliant defensive coach with a resume a mile long, has taken over the Packers’ defensive roster—largely remarkable for its aging cornerbacks, passle of decent young linebackers, and pass rusher extraordinaire Aaron Kampman--and plugged it into his famed zone blitzing 3-4 scheme.  Oddly, that type of defense is suddenly all the rage again, after his Steelers (as DC) and Panthers (as HC) made it trendy the first time around.  Aaron Kampman has been publicly terse—and, it’s rumored, privately furious—about the switch from 4-3 DE to 3-4 ROLB.

At this point in the season, it will be pretty obvious if the switch is working—and, if it is, the Lions’ offensive line is going to struggle to protect Matt Stafford.  If Raji is as good as advertised, the Lions’ offensive line is going to struggle to open holes for Kevin Smith.  On the balance, there is plenty of wiggle room for a Lions victory—but most of it involves the Packers failing, something they rarely do much of in Lambeau.

L, 20-28

That brings us to the bye week, and the Lions have just one victory by my accounting—and that one was a total freebie!  Now to be fair, I think they’ll certainly take at least one of these home games--I put it on Minny just because A) it’d be an awesome story and 2) screw the Vikings.  I’m really going to have a hard time being talked into any more than 2 total wins by this point . . . I just don’t see it.  I think the Lions will do better on the back nine, but this is a brutal stretch.  I really, really, really hope Lions fans show the team some patience that it admittedly, has not deserved.

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