the mystery of the #1 overall pick

Pertinent "facts" in the case:

1) Tom Kowalski reports that the Lions have begun negotiations with their #1 pick.  The wording of the headline and opening paragraphs suggest that this means the Lions have already settled on a player, but the actual quotes reveal that the Lions are talking to all of the several possible #1 pick candidates . . . the headline is true, just a little misleading (EDIT: as of 4 A.M., the headline and first two paragraphs have been altered to more accurately reflect the situation.  Looks like Tommy got a slap on the wrist from his editor).

2) PFT reported shortly after Tom that there is a persistent rumor that the Lions "are focused in on" USC QB Mark Sanchez, and not Matt Stafford.  That may well be the case, but IMO drafting Sanchez #1 overall would be lunacy.  Between this and the Raji workout, my guess is that the Lions are looking at moving down--or up.

3) "KFFL has learned the Detroit Lions will take Baylor OT Jason  Smith with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft".  This, I believe, is a total shot in the dark by one of the best football news aggregators around.  As far as I know, KFFL is essentially a service that trolls the internet for you, the Fantasy Football player, so you can have all the latest info on transactions, injuries, depth charts, etc.  KFFL doesn't typically break stories because they don't typically have inside info.  In this case, however, they are sticking their neck way, WAY out there.  No comments, no followup, not even a cite of a "team source", just an ESPN-style "KFFL has learned".  You know, dipping my toe into the "new media" has given me tremendous respect for the "old media"--and frankly I'm appalled by this.  You can't just make stuff up, hoping it comes true.  I hope for their sake that they're right on this--and if they're not, I hope there's a strong backlash against KFFL for it.  Any time something like this happens, it puts bloggers back in the "According to Internet reports" ghetto.

As far as my take goes, it's all a smokescreen.  The Lions were always going to put an emphasis on signability-- and as Lewand said in the Killer piece, drafting a six-year deal loaded with guaranteed money when this is the last year of the CBA is playing with fire.  They're going to get started now, play all the candidates off each other, and with luck they'll sign the guy they want (Curry) to a lowball deal.